The right climate to migrate | Grammenos Mastrojeni | TEDxMilano

This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community.

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Grammenos Mastrojeni tell us how climate change directly impacts people migration, poverty and war, demonstrating that environmental degradation has societal, geo-strategic and economic impacts. We all have to cooperate and be active to solve this global issues - as he said, for our own crass, cynical, immediate interest.

We can all agree

that the established motto
"Mors tua, vita mea"

is one of the most ridiculous sayings
the human mind has ever come up with.

Mother Earth is telling us,
rather she is screaming at us

that dealing

with the smallest, most fragile,
and insignificant of its creatures

is not an act of goodness or heroism.

It is just pursuing

our own crass, cynical
and short-term self-interest.

This applies to the wrongly named problem

of climate migrants.

Let's approach it from the point of view

of our crass, cynical
and short-term self-interest.

But we must understand this self-interest.

You'll see something in this slide
that is familiar to you,

we call it Europe.

But have you ever thought about
how strange an idea this is?

All the continents are marked out
along geographical barriers.

By that very standard, we are Asia.

We do not exist.

Yet we want to be a continent,
indeed the Old Continent.

What is it that characterises us
as different from Asia?

A culture, we may say,

that within its diversity
holds a certain unity.

And without engaging
in ridiculous talks of race,

a certain physiognomic homogeneity.

But then, what is the fundamental
determinant of all this?

Why are we a unit?

Well, the determinant is the climate.

Europe is Europe,
with its particular identity,

because of its peculiar climate.

And over this climatic peculiarity

our joint interest was founded.

But now things are changing.

This distinguishing climate of Europe -

I'm over-simplifying,
but is somehow determined

by the influence
of the Azores anticyclone.

Which is receding, increasingly
giving way to the African anticyclone.

What does this mean?

It means that, if climate
has been so decisive

in forging our identity, and our concerns,

a changing climate
will also change these.

Will we lose our European identity?

No, we just make room for another one.

We will enter into the
community of interests

of those whose lives are governed
by the African anticyclone.

From this perspective

we can try to understand
how we'll be affected

by those people who are
driven away from their land

by a changing climate
that makes it less and less fruitful.

But we must also understand
what we are exactly talking about.

The accepted wisdom
is that the poorer you are,

the more likely you are to emigrate -

and this is simply not true.

The poorest are held back

by what is technically called
the "poverty trap".

They have so little,

their outlook is so short-term

that they never think about emigrating.

Their problem is to find
enough rice in the next two hours.

And only when they start
to become more secure

they do consider leaving,
going far away to improve their lifestyle.

Well, those who have enough
to consider making the journey

have at least a little bit
of freedom of choice

and are the real migrants.

Well managed, they can also have

a positive role for themselves
and their host countries -

but that's another story.

The problem is, climate change

affects the lives of those
who cannot migrate.

Those who have to leave
just because their field has dried up.

These are not migrants.

They are part of an enforced
displacement of population.

And those who are forced
into such a population movement

are of no use to themselves,
or anyone else

as they also fall prey,
vulnerabile as they are,

to crime, trafficking,
terrorism, and fanaticism.

What part does the climate play?

We are used to hear

that a changing climate triggers
the most extreme, violent phenomena

and has the biggest impact on our bodies.

Heat waves puts older people in trouble,

aerals - zones of incidence of some
infectious diseases - are expanding.

Then we also hear

that violent climatic phenomena
damage our infrastructure.

Hurricanes cause bridges
to collapse, and so on.

But almost no one speaks

of the most devastating effect
of climate change.

So, what is the greenhouse effect?

The greenhouse effect is the result
of solar energy intake

that's trapped in our ecosystem
and not radiated back into space.

There's a lot of it!

The actual amount was shared
in another TED talk, about 10 years ago,

by a scientist,
maybe a little controversial

but still from NASA: James Hansen.

It is the equivalent of 400,000
atomic bombs detonating every day.

And where is this energy funneled,

if not into our ecosystems,
formed over the millennia?

It turns into disorder,
it turns into unpredictability

And where the climate
becomes unpredictable,

society can hardly handle it.

If I am a farmer, and I can't
predict when it will rain,

I don't know when to sow.

But it's not just a rural problem.

If I manage the Milan water system,

and I don't know if it'll snow or not,

I have huge problems planning ahead.

Here, if it happens to us,
to the extent that it happens now,

we can still fix it.

But if it happens
to a farmer in Burkina Faso

then the problem is no longer economic.

A failed harvest,
for a farmer in Valpadana

can bring about economic losses -

but he's probably insured,
maybe the local government will help.

For the farmer from Burkina Faso

it's the difference between sending
their children to school or not.

And then it becomes
a human rights problem.

We understand how a person
under such a pressure

with her future prospects

and families basic needs at risk

can fall prey to migration, fanaticism

destabilisation of all kinds.

Is this in the future?
Unfortunately no, It's happening now.

It's already happening in areas

with a fragile ecosystem

superimposed onto a fragile society.

It's happening in the islands,
that are yelling out in despair.

The Maldives are putting aside
a portion of the proceeds from tourism

to buy another island in the future.

It's happening in the river deltas,
that are becoming salinised.

It's happening in the Arctic.

The Arctic populations
are all becoming desperate.

They are losing their culture's
distinctive traits.

Which turned them
to alcoholism, to suicide.

It's happening in the mountains,
which are particularly vulnerable.

And then it's happening
right in front of us.

The place where it is happening
most visibly, at the moment,

is right in front of us.

Just a short stretch of sea
separates us from it.

Italy stretches out between
the two shores of the Mediterranean

like a kind of bridge.

Let me show you a map
of part of northern Africa.

It consists mostly of desert
that has been desert for a long time.

In these deserts,
as we learned this morning,

are populations

that have found a way of life

that's compatible
with that stingy ecosystem.

But in this area
there is not only the desert.

An area is also there
that roughly coincides with the Sahel,

where desertification is taking place.

If we compare these two areas -

the desert and desertification zone,

in objective terms

the desertification zone
is still a bit more generous,

still a bit richer, than the desert.

But in this desertification zone

the cycles of nature
are no longer dependable on.

There is a chaotic, unregulated climate

and the inhabitants can
no longer sustain themselves.

Look where it is,

and notice that it matches

the areas where hunger
and conflicts show up the most,

the areas most afflicted
by the dynamics of terrorism,

the areas most afflicted
by illicit trafficking of all kinds -

arms, money, drugs, human beings.

And take a look at where nine
out of ten migrants come from -

those who are creating
a bit of a crisis for us right now.

If that's the current reality,

where Italy, in its front line role,

is poised to set a standard,

but we must not think
that the problem ends there.

I'll show you two photos.

One is a map.

In this map you can see the glaciers
of Hindu Kush, Himalayas, and Pamir.

These will eventually melt.

I have no time to explain why,
but they will not melt gradually,

proportional to the rise in temperature.

At a certain point
there will be a collapse.

At some point, the glaciers
in this zone will break down.

OK, you may say -
but why should we Italians care?

Well, the fact is,
every time an element is lost

from this delicate equilibrium
of the biosphere,

we don't just lose it
and its physical beauty.

Its function is also lost,
the part it plays

in maintaining the balance
of the whole system.

Glaciers perform many functions:
one of these should interests us a lot.

They regulate the ordered
outflow of water downstream.

Local rivers have their source
in those glaciers.

They irrigate plains where one billion
and four hundred million people live.

If the glaciers break down here, in
a monsoon area - especially in the south,

the situation in the valleys
suddenly changes

from one in which, during the drought,

the melting glaciers supply
the river with water

into a disastrous oscillation
between drought and flooding.

Agriculture and the whole infrastructure
is thrown off balance and much more.

One billion and four hundred
million people.

We started to get in trouble
with 380,000 people coming here.

It all adds up to this.

The mountains are very fragile ecosystems,

where very vulnerable people live.

OK, but they are not so much..

No no, 22% of the land will be affected
and the 913,000,000 people who live there.

If they set in motion ...

And then the other image
shows a flooded subway in New York.

Rising sea levels
is a very controversial issue.

It's not clear how bad it will be.

But now scientists -

you may have heard

that a recent report
by the United Nations Panel

believe it is quite plausible

that levels will rise by 1,5 metres
by the end of this century.

So, let's add on
the 42% of the human population

dwelling along the coasts.

If the sea rises 1,5 metres
there will be flooded areas.

But that's not the biggest problem.

Saltwater intrusion is worse.

Salt water gets into the soil
and dehydrates it.

The Romans,

to make sure a defeated city
would never rise up again,

poured sea salt on the fields.

And this is the effect it will have.

I see from your faces that my
story has really depressed you.

(Laughter)

Is all lost? No, we can solve the problem.

And we can solve it

in our short-term, cynical
and self-interested way.

How?

Well, by reminding ourselves
that we are part of a whole.

This diagram you see here

has been developed
by the Barilla foundation.

It shows two pyramids.

The first one, the food pyramid,
is very well known.

It shows the proportion of every type
of food we should be eating

to stay healthy.

So, a little red meat,
a little more protein from other sources

and increasing amounts
of fibre, vegetables, and so on.

It so happens, if we
juxtapose this pyramid

over the pyramid showing
the impact on the ecosystem

of the production
of each category of food,

they match almost perfectly.

That is, the more a certain type of food

is consumed - in excess,
I'm not vegetarian -

the more it damages
both a person and the ecosystem.

Hmm, what a spectacular coincidence
for the food sector!

Only, it's not a coincidence

and it's not just under
the industry's control.

It is a paradigm of our relationship
with the ecosystem

and you don't have to turn
to otherworldly wisdom.

It is the result of co-evolution.

It's just normal for us
to be completely healthy

when we are "tuned"
with the system we are part of.

If you do not believe me, try it yourself.

Do a little exercise.

Make a pyramid of your personal transport.

You'll notice that the better
your choice of transport

it is for your health,
for your integral well-being,

for your social life, your pace of life,

the more sustainable it gets.

And this is a bit true in all areas.

But why am I telling you this?

Because this gives us a roadmap.

It gives us a rule.

What's really good for you,
is good for the planet too.

Let's move on from the individual
to the global, geostrategic view.

If the West, as if by magic, decided
to eat according to this pyramid,

not only would we all be better off

but it would help to stop
the polarisation of the world

between the one billion
five hundred million people

who suffer from disease,
due to poor or excessive nutrition,

and the 814 million people
who go to bed hungry.

What does this all mean?

It means that sustainability
and well-being

turn into social justice
and redistribution.

Those resources, consumed in
excess by some, are freed up

and become available to others.

A professor from Piacenza
calculated exactly how much.

If every person registered
as pathologically obese

by western health services

abstained from a single can
of fizzy drink a day,

that would free up enough resources
to feed 56 million people.

So, my individual well-being
becomes sustainability,

sustainability becomes fairness,
and fairness becomes peace,

because a world where all children
have access to decent nutrition

is also a world that kicks sand
in the face of Boko Haram, ISIS, etc.

And so I propose this equation,
the Earth equation.

It seems very personal - my life
in harmony with the planet;

but it is really a political choice.

We can apply this method.

These crescents you see
dug in the ground are in Burkina Faso

and is a system by which we can recover

one hectare of desert for $130.

By doing this, what do we achieve?

We regenerate this land for agriculture.

and we also create a extraordinarily
efficient carbon sink

as the vegetation grown back.

Not only that: we protect biodiversity.

We consolidate the water / salt balance

and reduce heat locally

as vegetation brings down the temperature

and re-start all the market,
the business activity, etc.

In other words, we disrupt
the trigger of fanatism,

the mechanism that feeds
human trafficking and war.

You don't believe me?

This is the real result.

If we don't do this, what happens?

We leave these countries
prey to instability,

so they can no longer cooperate
in the recovery of the climate.

They are excluded from the communal battle

to maintain a climate
that is still manageable.

But leaving them out in the cold,

none of us will have a manageable climate,

because these countries contribute

to manageable sustainably.

So what happens?

If we leave them to their own devices,

we create the future

that the IPCC and the UN panel
described four days ago:

2040, the catastrophe.

It's just our own crass,
cynical, selfish interests.

We must take care
of the weakest and poorest.

Thank you.

(Applause)