How humans save nature | Michael Shellenberger | TEDxMarthasVineyard
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0:11 - 0:15Human beings have done amazingly well
over the last half century. -
0:15 - 0:20In 1950, there were just
two and a half billion people on earth, -
0:20 - 0:22today there's more
than seven billion of us. -
0:22 - 0:28The percentage of people living
in absolute material poverty has declined, -
0:28 - 0:32from around 85% in the early 1800s,
-
0:32 - 0:34to just around 15% today.
-
0:35 - 0:37Everywhere infant mortality
has been going down, -
0:37 - 0:39and almost everywhere
people are living longer lives. -
0:40 - 0:43Unfortunately, all of our success
-
0:43 - 0:46has come at a high cost
to the natural world. -
0:47 - 0:52The number of wild animals on planet Earth
has declined by half since 1970. -
0:54 - 0:59Why do we care about the fate
of the remaining golden monkeys in Rwanda? -
1:00 - 1:03After all, we'll also be
as materially rich if they're gone, -
1:03 - 1:04and live long lives.
-
1:05 - 1:08I could try to make up a rational reason,
-
1:08 - 1:12but for me, after spending a morning
with this mother and her baby, -
1:12 - 1:14and looking at them now,
-
1:14 - 1:17looking at the way the mother
is looking at her baby, her eyes, -
1:17 - 1:21the way the baby is looking at the world
with that curiosity and that excitement, -
1:21 - 1:24it touches something
deeper in us than rationality. -
1:25 - 1:28Couldn't we say the same thing
about the children of Rwanda? -
1:28 - 1:32After all, we don't know them,
we are not Rwandans, -
1:32 - 1:35but we care deeply about them,
-
1:35 - 1:39and we don't want three billion people
to continue to rely on wood -
1:39 - 1:42and to be trapped in poverty.
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1:43 - 1:44My name is Michael Shellenberger,
-
1:44 - 1:46and I'm president
of Breakthrough Institute. -
1:46 - 1:50We're a research organization
that's committed to a big goal: -
1:50 - 1:52lift all humans out of poverty,
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1:52 - 1:55and return more of the Earth
to wild nature. -
1:55 - 1:59Over the last few years, we've been
focused on a particular question: -
1:59 - 2:01how humans save nature.
-
2:01 - 2:05That may sound like
a strange thing to look at, -
2:05 - 2:07given everything I've just mentioned,
-
2:07 - 2:09everything we hear about the environment.
-
2:09 - 2:11You might even wonder,
"Do humans save nature?" -
2:12 - 2:14The answer is that we do.
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2:14 - 2:16What we've discovered
-
2:16 - 2:20is that we do in a way that follows
what turns out to be a hidden pattern, -
2:20 - 2:24with specific elements
that are really true around the world -
2:24 - 2:25at different moments of time.
-
2:26 - 2:28One of the things we found is
there's a number of trends -
2:28 - 2:32that are actually going
in the right direction on the environment. -
2:32 - 2:35If we take the right actions today,
-
2:35 - 2:38the overall size of the human population,
-
2:38 - 2:40and our overall negative impact
on the natural world, -
2:40 - 2:43could peak and decline
not by the end of the century, -
2:43 - 2:45but within a few decades.
-
2:45 - 2:47But, there's a catch,
-
2:47 - 2:51and that's that we will have to confront
some deep-seated fears -
2:51 - 2:53that we have about the world,
-
2:53 - 2:57and we will have to confront
some important misconceptions. -
2:58 - 3:01To begin, if there's one thing
I want everybody to remember, -
3:01 - 3:03only one thing you get out of this talk,
-
3:03 - 3:06it's that humans save nature
by not using it. -
3:06 - 3:08And this may sound strange,
-
3:08 - 3:11because it seems like we're always
using nature in some ways, -
3:11 - 3:16but what I'm definitely not saying,
what we've definitely not found -
3:16 - 3:18is that we save nature
by using it more sustainably. -
3:19 - 3:22Our research suggest is we don't save
nature by using it sustainably, -
3:22 - 3:24we save nature by not using it.
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3:25 - 3:27What do I mean? We'll take a closer look.
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3:27 - 3:30Humans use about half of the Earth,
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3:30 - 3:32half of the land surface of the Earth,
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3:32 - 3:35the part of the Earth that's not
under water or under glaciers. -
3:35 - 3:40Of that half, about half
of the human impact is meat, -
3:40 - 3:42or 24% of the Earth surface,
-
3:42 - 3:44and another 10% is crops,
-
3:44 - 3:48another 9% or so is for wood production
-
3:48 - 3:50- and this is really amazing -
-
3:50 - 3:54just 3% of the Earth's surface
we use is cities and suburbs, -
3:54 - 3:56for the place that we live.
-
3:56 - 3:57What's important about that
-
3:57 - 4:00is that now half of all humans,
three and a half billions of us, -
4:00 - 4:02live in cities and suburbs,
-
4:02 - 4:06and this will prove to be a crucial part
of how humans are going to save nature, -
4:06 - 4:09and how our negative impact
will peak and decline this century. -
4:10 - 4:14You can see that it's the part
of the Earth that we don't use, -
4:14 - 4:16that we leave to wild nature.
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4:17 - 4:18So, let's take a closer look.
-
4:18 - 4:21I've mentioned there are three ways
in which humans save nature. -
4:21 - 4:24The first is we save it by not needing it.
-
4:24 - 4:27I said before that we
save nature by not using it, -
4:27 - 4:31but we only don't use nature
by not needing it. -
4:31 - 4:32What do I mean?
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4:32 - 4:35Many of you know that here in New England,
-
4:35 - 4:37including in New Bedford
and much of Massachusetts, -
4:37 - 4:41whaling was a huge industry
in the early 1800s. -
4:41 - 4:44Mostly we hunted whales for their oil.
-
4:44 - 4:49We used their oil as energy
to light up our lamps. -
4:49 - 4:52Then something happened,
some of you may know what happened, -
4:52 - 4:54around the middle of 19 century.
-
4:54 - 4:59This cartoon in Vanity Fair Magazine,
I think, says better than any. -
4:59 - 5:01It's a celebration, it's a party.
-
5:01 - 5:04You see the whales are dressed up
in tuxedo's and ball gowns, -
5:05 - 5:08and it's in 1861,
and what the caption says is: -
5:09 - 5:11"Grand ball given by the whales,
-
5:11 - 5:15in honor of the discovery
of oil wells in Pennsylvania." -
5:16 - 5:19We save nature by not using it,
we save nature by not needing it. -
5:19 - 5:21We didn't need the whales anymore,
-
5:21 - 5:24we had a better substitute,
it was kerosene, -
5:24 - 5:27made from abundant and cheap petroleum.
-
5:28 - 5:31We didn't save the whales
by using whales more sustainably, -
5:31 - 5:33we didn't save the whales
-
5:33 - 5:37by having more efficient lighting
to burn the whale more efficiently: -
5:37 - 5:40we saved the whales by not hunting them.
-
5:40 - 5:42This is New England in 1880.
-
5:42 - 5:47There was only 30% of it
forested at that time, -
5:47 - 5:49most of the rest was farmland.
-
5:49 - 5:53This is New England today, 80% forested.
-
5:53 - 5:58Martha's Vineyard was really
a large sheep farm in 1900, -
5:58 - 6:01today it's mostly forested.
-
6:01 - 6:03When you fly over it,
you can see the beautiful forest. -
6:03 - 6:07Yesterday I saw a wild osprey,
several wild osprey. -
6:07 - 6:10In New England and much of the rich world
-
6:10 - 6:14nature is returning, the forests
are growing back. Why? -
6:14 - 6:17These farms mostly went bankrupt,
-
6:17 - 6:19we mostly didn't need them
for their land anymore, -
6:19 - 6:22we became more efficient
at growing more food, -
6:22 - 6:25we grew more food on less land,
we saved all of that nature, -
6:25 - 6:28allowing forests to grow back
because we didn't need it. -
6:29 - 6:31Look this amazing photograph of Hong Kong.
-
6:32 - 6:35Look this beautiful green forest
that surrounds Hong Kong. -
6:36 - 6:40Hong Kong is only able
to save that beautiful nature -
6:40 - 6:42because it doesn't need it
for growing food -
6:42 - 6:44or for using it for energy.
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6:44 - 6:46They've made an incredible city,
-
6:46 - 6:49and people say if you go to the city
you'll be alienated from nature, -
6:49 - 6:52but look, they can walk
into the nature from Hong Kong. -
6:52 - 6:55Nature is right there,
they have wonderful access to it. -
6:55 - 6:57This is an important part
-
6:57 - 7:01of how the human impact on the world
will peak and decline in a century. -
7:01 - 7:04More of us are going to move to cities,
-
7:04 - 7:07and we're going to return
more of the Earth to nature, -
7:07 - 7:09and wild nature in particular.
-
7:10 - 7:13You may wonder:
that sounds nice for Hong Kong, -
7:13 - 7:15but what about poor countries?
-
7:15 - 7:16What about developing countries?
-
7:16 - 7:18What about all the slums?
-
7:18 - 7:20Isn't this really about industrialization,
-
7:20 - 7:23about factories
where conditions are terrible, -
7:23 - 7:25and people are treated miserably.
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7:25 - 7:27That was certainly my view.
-
7:27 - 7:28Twenty years ago,
-
7:28 - 7:31I was involved in efforts to hold Nike
and other corporations accountable -
7:31 - 7:34for their labor practices
in other countries, -
7:34 - 7:36particularly in Indonesia.
-
7:37 - 7:41It was a successful effort,
and Nike did make some improvements, -
7:41 - 7:43but twenty years later
I wanted to go back, -
7:43 - 7:45I wanted to see what
had happened to the workers, -
7:45 - 7:48had their lives really
improved materially? -
7:48 - 7:50I met this young woman,
her name is Supartie. -
7:50 - 7:54She is from a rice-growing village
in the countryside. -
7:54 - 7:59After high school, she decided she wanted
to join her aunt in a suburb of Jakarta, -
7:59 - 8:01and work there in one of the factories.
-
8:01 - 8:03She got a job in a barbie factory,
-
8:03 - 8:07making clothes and cutting the threads
off the barbies, and it was terrible. -
8:07 - 8:13She was verbally abused everyday,
she went home crying every night, -
8:13 - 8:16and she did something
extraordinarily brave, -
8:16 - 8:17and that's that she quit.
-
8:17 - 8:21But she didn't want to go back home,
she didn't want to be a rice farmer, -
8:21 - 8:23she wanted a better life
for herself from the city. -
8:25 - 8:27She struggled but she found another job,
-
8:27 - 8:30and she found a job
in a chocolate factory. -
8:30 - 8:34She's become an extraordinary
labor activist and woman's right activist, -
8:34 - 8:39and when I met her, she was
very positive about her future. -
8:39 - 8:41She has two cellphones,
she has a motorcycle, -
8:41 - 8:43she just bought a house,
-
8:43 - 8:47she makes four times more money
than the people back in the village, -
8:47 - 8:49farming rice.
-
8:49 - 8:52She's now saving money
to send her parents to Mecca, -
8:52 - 8:55which is a dream of Muslims
around the world. -
8:57 - 8:58This is what's happened:
-
8:58 - 9:03since 1960, we're growing much more food
on much smaller amounts of land, -
9:03 - 9:06it's one of humankind's
most extraordinary achievements -
9:06 - 9:08with great benefits to the natural world.
-
9:08 - 9:14We use half as much the land,
per person globally, to provide our food. -
9:14 - 9:19That's only possible, it's only possible
for Supartie to live in the city, -
9:19 - 9:21as long as she doesn't need
to make her own food, -
9:21 - 9:23and we're making more food
for more of us. -
9:23 - 9:27Before he died, Jacques Cousteau
had a similar vision for the oceans, -
9:27 - 9:30he knew that a rising human population,
a rising consumption, -
9:30 - 9:33would put enormous pressure on wild fish.
-
9:33 - 9:38Wild fish is the last set of wild animals
that we in the rich world still eat. -
9:39 - 9:42While fish farming is still early days,
-
9:42 - 9:45it's still a young technology,
has a long way to go, -
9:45 - 9:49it's going to be crucial
to releasing wild fish, -
9:49 - 9:52and returning more
of the oceans to wild nature. -
9:52 - 9:54So the first way we save nature
is by not needing it. -
9:54 - 9:57The second way is
that we have smaller families. -
9:57 - 9:58I mentioned Supartie,
-
9:58 - 10:01now that she's in a city,
she wants that life for herself, -
10:01 - 10:04she wants the freedom,
she can date who she wants to date now, -
10:04 - 10:07is able to love who she wants to love,
marry who she wants to marry. -
10:07 - 10:10I asked her about her family history.
-
10:10 - 10:15Her grandmother had thirteen children,
her mother had six, and Supartie said, -
10:15 - 10:18sometimes she wants to have two kids,
sometimes she wants to have four, -
10:18 - 10:19by choice.
-
10:19 - 10:21In the countryside a poor farmer
-
10:21 - 10:23needs a lot of kids
to help him work on the farm, -
10:23 - 10:26needs a lot of kids
to help him in retirement. -
10:26 - 10:29In the city, you can
invest more in fewer kids. -
10:29 - 10:31That trend's consistent around the world
-
10:31 - 10:35as women become more powerful,
more educated, as they have more income. -
10:35 - 10:38They're able to do more things
with their lives, -
10:38 - 10:41choose to have fewer kids.
-
10:41 - 10:43You can see it right here,
-
10:43 - 10:46even though the overall population
has grown from two and a half -
10:46 - 10:49to seven billion
over the last fifty years, -
10:49 - 10:54you can see here that we don't know
what's going to happen next. -
10:54 - 10:56You see, there's one scenario
that we keep going up, -
10:56 - 10:58and another scenario that we go down.
-
10:58 - 11:02What will determine whether we go
up or whether we go down? -
11:02 - 11:06These are two different estimates
by two different leading demographers. -
11:06 - 11:08The high population estimate,
-
11:08 - 11:11where it would go up to 16 billion or more
by the end of the century, -
11:11 - 11:16is a world of low energy,
wood energy, wood, dung and charcoal, -
11:17 - 11:19and large families,
mostly in the countryside. -
11:19 - 11:22A world where the population
peeks at eight and half billion -
11:22 - 11:25and then declines
by the end of the century, -
11:25 - 11:28is a world that looks a lot more
like what Supartie is living in, -
11:28 - 11:31with higher energy, smaller families,
-
11:31 - 11:33more development, and more opportunity.
-
11:33 - 11:36We save nature by having smaller families,
-
11:36 - 11:37and moving to number three,
-
11:37 - 11:40the third part of the three ways
in which we save nature, -
11:40 - 11:42to using more high-tech forms of energy.
-
11:43 - 11:45This is Maiyishia.
-
11:45 - 11:50She is one of the 900 remaining
mountain gorillas left in the world. -
11:50 - 11:52As a baby, she grew up
-
11:52 - 11:56in Africa's oldest national park
in Congo, called Virunga Park. -
11:56 - 12:01In 2007, her parents
and much of the rest of her group -
12:01 - 12:06were killed by men
making charcoal for energy. -
12:06 - 12:12Since then, there's been a number of
well-meaning efforts to plant trees, -
12:12 - 12:16to help people in the region
burn wood more efficiently, -
12:16 - 12:19and the situation has only gotten worse.
-
12:19 - 12:22We visited it in December of last year.
-
12:22 - 12:24This is a picture of the park,
an areal photo that we took -
12:24 - 12:26high above the park.
-
12:26 - 12:29You can see here, the fires in the park,
-
12:29 - 12:34here, here, and here,
illegal charcoal burning in the park. -
12:34 - 12:35Why?
-
12:35 - 12:38Because people need it,
they need that nature. -
12:38 - 12:41Over 90% of the people
depend on wood for fuel. -
12:42 - 12:45We didn't save the whales
by using whales more sustainably, -
12:45 - 12:47by using whale oil more efficiently,
-
12:47 - 12:52we saved the whales
by using a different kind of energy, -
12:52 - 12:53by using a substitute.
-
12:53 - 12:55This is Supartie.
-
12:55 - 12:59Supartie, like young women who move
to the city everywhere, uses propane, -
12:59 - 13:03what we use as camping fuel,
similar to natural gas that we all enjoy; -
13:03 - 13:06it's an important substitute
for the two to three billion people -
13:06 - 13:10that still depend on wood
and dung as their primary energy now. -
13:11 - 13:14Propane is a fossil fuel,
-
13:14 - 13:20and that means that as the poorest people
in the world gain access to modern energy, -
13:20 - 13:23we're on schedule to have
a lot of global warming. -
13:23 - 13:25This is from the Nobel Prize winning
-
13:25 - 13:28United Nations intergovernmental
panel on climate change. -
13:28 - 13:30You can see historical emissions,
-
13:30 - 13:35and you can see in the different colors
various possible futures. -
13:36 - 13:39You can see there are
different possible increases. -
13:39 - 13:42We could go to five degrees
above pre-industrial temperatures, -
13:42 - 13:44we could go to one degree
under pre-industrial temperatures. -
13:44 - 13:47It depends on choices that we make today.
-
13:47 - 13:49This is Shanghai.
-
13:49 - 13:53As more of us move to the cities,
we're going to consume more energy. -
13:53 - 13:58For everybody to live
at a moderate living standard, -
13:58 - 13:59a basic material-needs-met,
-
13:59 - 14:02the world is going to need to triple,
-
14:02 - 14:04perhaps quadruple the amount
of energy produced as from today. -
14:04 - 14:07If all of that energy is fossil,
-
14:07 - 14:10we're going to see much more
significant climate change. -
14:10 - 14:13What are the clean energy options?
There's not many. -
14:13 - 14:18There's solar, there's wind,
there's a little bit of geothermal, -
14:18 - 14:20there's hydro-electric dams,
-
14:20 - 14:22and there's nuclear power plants.
-
14:23 - 14:25Solar and wind are wonderful;
-
14:25 - 14:30I've spent much of my professional career
advocating for more solar, for more wind, -
14:30 - 14:33including the wind farm
off the coast of Cape Cod. -
14:34 - 14:37But solar and wind alone
cannot power Shanghai at night, -
14:37 - 14:40and there's a lot of exciting
development in batteries, -
14:40 - 14:43but we're so far away from being able
to power cities on batteries. -
14:45 - 14:47Geothermal is great where it's available,
-
14:47 - 14:49and it's not available in many places.
-
14:49 - 14:54Hydro-electric dams have mostly
been built in the rich world, -
14:54 - 14:56we've mostly dammed the rivers,
and even in places like China, -
14:56 - 14:59many of the rivers
have already been dammed. -
14:59 - 15:02That means we have
to take a second look at nuclear power. -
15:02 - 15:07When I was boy, my aunt took me
every August to Bittersweet Park, -
15:07 - 15:11where we would remember
the Hiroshima bombings. -
15:11 - 15:13We would light candles,
putting them on paper boats, -
15:13 - 15:14pushed them into the ponds,
-
15:14 - 15:19and meditate over war
and morality and responsibility. -
15:19 - 15:25A few years later I saw a television movie
about the aftermath of nuclear war, -
15:25 - 15:28and in high school I saw
the documentary of Hiroshima, -
15:28 - 15:30about the horrors of nuclear.
-
15:30 - 15:34I was anti-nuclear my entire life,
-
15:34 - 15:36and then I confronted this data,
-
15:36 - 15:40and the challenge of meeting global
energy and development needs, -
15:40 - 15:43and also dealing with one of our
most serious environmental problems, -
15:43 - 15:45and I've changed my mind.
-
15:46 - 15:49In that time I've spent a lot of time
understanding the technology. -
15:49 - 15:51Fear is a really important emotion
-
15:51 - 15:54it wakes us up to the world,
it makes us aware of risk, -
15:54 - 15:57but if we allow fear to drive us,
-
15:57 - 16:00we can end up making up decisions
that actually put us at greater risk. -
16:01 - 16:03So it's important to understand
what the scare is, -
16:03 - 16:05it's important to understand
nuclear power. -
16:05 - 16:07This is a nuclear plant in California.
-
16:08 - 16:12You can see it's a remarkable
piece of technology, -
16:12 - 16:15on what is the equivalent
of about three football fields. -
16:16 - 16:18Lots of surrounding green nature.
-
16:18 - 16:21It provides power for three million homes.
-
16:21 - 16:23You can see it's built up
three times higher -
16:23 - 16:26than the tsunami that affected Fukushima.
-
16:26 - 16:29There's backup water
in case there is a power outage, -
16:29 - 16:31they can keep reactors cool,
-
16:31 - 16:33These domes are containment domes,
-
16:33 - 16:37which means that if there's a melt down,
no radiation will escape. -
16:37 - 16:41And you can see here all around it,
natural life, sea life exists, -
16:41 - 16:45because nuclear power is zero-pollution.
-
16:45 - 16:48One of the things we've learnt
about energy production is -
16:48 - 16:50that from the environmental perspective,
-
16:50 - 16:52you want the least natural resource in,
-
16:52 - 16:54the least amount of fuel in,
-
16:54 - 16:56the most amount of energy out,
-
16:56 - 16:59and the least amount
of pollution and waste. -
17:01 - 17:08You can't walk alongside a coal plant
and not be affected by the smoke. -
17:08 - 17:10You can with nuclear.
-
17:10 - 17:13It's a serious issue
in terms of pollution, -
17:13 - 17:17and what nuclear provides
is reliable power 24 hours a day, -
17:17 - 17:217 days a week, to power
big cities like Shanghai. -
17:21 - 17:22What about the accidents?
-
17:22 - 17:24We hear so much about the accidents,
-
17:24 - 17:25and we've reviewed
-
17:25 - 17:28all of the peer-reviewed
scientific literature, -
17:28 - 17:32independently done,
and here's what it shows you. -
17:32 - 17:36The first thing to keep in mind is
that four million people die every year -
17:36 - 17:39from diseases related
to inhaling wood smoke. -
17:39 - 17:42From three billion people that rely
on wood as their primary energy, -
17:42 - 17:44four million die
from respiratory illnesses. -
17:44 - 17:47This is a measurement of power plants.
-
17:47 - 17:50Number one, the most dangerous
form of energy is coal. -
17:50 - 17:52They look at accidents and air pollution,
-
17:52 - 17:56but the remarkable thing is:
basically all the death is in blue, -
17:56 - 17:59you can barely see the green line
up there, are from air pollution. -
17:59 - 18:03Petroleum, second best or second worst;
-
18:03 - 18:05natural gas, an improvement; and nuclear.
-
18:05 - 18:07I push the button and it doesn't come up,
-
18:07 - 18:11because the number of deaths
is too small to register on this chart. -
18:11 - 18:16The former NASA climate scientist
James Hansen did a study, -
18:16 - 18:18using standard public health science,
-
18:18 - 18:22and calculated that 1.7 million lives
have been saved by nuclear energy. -
18:22 - 18:26What nuclear does is it leaves
the fossil energy in the ground. -
18:26 - 18:29We save nature by not using it,
by not needing it. -
18:29 - 18:31With nuclear you don't need fossil.
-
18:31 - 18:32What about the waste?
-
18:32 - 18:34This is the waste
from Pilgrim Nuclear Plant, -
18:34 - 18:38which provides 14%
of Massachusetts' electricity. -
18:38 - 18:39A lot of people fear this plant,
-
18:39 - 18:41a lot of people fear California's plant.
-
18:41 - 18:44This is the waste,
it's just sitting there, -
18:44 - 18:47it's not hurting anybody,
it's not going anywhere. -
18:47 - 18:49We have a couple of people watch it.
-
18:49 - 18:53People say: "Well, but that waste is going
to be around for ten thousand years." -
18:53 - 18:56If that were true, even if that were true,
-
18:56 - 19:01that small amount of waste would be,
I would suggest, a small price to pay -
19:01 - 19:06for universal prosperity
and returning more of the Earth to nature, -
19:06 - 19:09not to mention the public health benefits
of zero-carbon power. -
19:09 - 19:10But, here's the thing.
-
19:10 - 19:13That waste will not be around
for tens of thousands of years, -
19:13 - 19:16it may not be around
for several more decades. -
19:16 - 19:20One of the most exciting collaborations
right now between United States and China -
19:20 - 19:23is to develop the molten salt reactor,
-
19:23 - 19:28one the first commercial reactors
that uses that waste as fuel. -
19:28 - 19:3295% of the energy is still
in the so-called waste when it comes out, -
19:32 - 19:35there's no major
scientific breakthroughs needed, -
19:35 - 19:37it's going to be a tough
technological challenge, -
19:37 - 19:39but it can be achieved.
-
19:39 - 19:41Another team led by Bill Gates,
-
19:41 - 19:44and another team of MIT engineers
are all working on the same thing. -
19:44 - 19:46There are actually other groups as well.
-
19:46 - 19:50There is a global competition to create
the world's first melt-down proof reactor, -
19:50 - 19:53that also consumes waste as fuel.
-
19:54 - 19:56Let's take a look
at the environmental impacts. -
19:56 - 19:58I mentioned that what you get with nuclear
-
19:58 - 20:01is a small amount of fuel going in,
a lot of energy coming out, -
20:01 - 20:04a small amount of fuel and zero pollution.
-
20:04 - 20:09This is how much land
we used for energy in 2010. -
20:09 - 20:11I mentioned that if we want to achieve
-
20:11 - 20:15universal prosperity,
universal development by 2050, -
20:15 - 20:18we need three times,
maybe four times as much as energy. -
20:18 - 20:22If it was all from nuclear,
the energy footprint will actually shrink. -
20:22 - 20:24If it were all from renewables,
-
20:24 - 20:27it would grow to be the size
of North America and Alaska. -
20:27 - 20:30So, let's do solar and wind,
-
20:30 - 20:32but we can't just do solar and wind
-
20:32 - 20:34and return more of the Earth
to wild nature. -
20:34 - 20:36How do humans save nature?
-
20:36 - 20:38I mentioned there's a hidden pattern,
-
20:38 - 20:41and it's specific and consistent
around the world. -
20:41 - 20:46It consists in moving people
out of their dependence on wood -
20:46 - 20:48and agrarian poverty;
-
20:48 - 20:51moving away from large families
to medium-sized families, -
20:51 - 20:54choosing to have smaller families;
-
20:54 - 20:56access to the modern energy
so that the forests are spared, -
20:56 - 20:59that forests can grow back
from agriculture; -
20:59 - 21:03and then you see the final
and the last important step, -
21:03 - 21:08moving toward small families, universal
prosperity, and nuclear energy. -
21:10 - 21:11What is this a vision of?
-
21:11 - 21:15Today we leave half
of the Earth for nature. -
21:15 - 21:17Can we leave 75% for nature?
-
21:17 - 21:20We're going to need more lands for cities,
-
21:20 - 21:23but given current trends,
we can drastically reduce -
21:23 - 21:28how much of the Earth we use
for wood, crops, and meat production. -
21:29 - 21:31Can we do it? I think we can.
-
21:31 - 21:34Why am I so confident?
Because we've done it before. -
21:34 - 21:36Thank you very much.
-
21:36 - 21:37(Applause)
- Title:
- How humans save nature | Michael Shellenberger | TEDxMarthasVineyard
- Description:
-
This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community.
Can humans save nature? In this fascinating look at our relationship with the natural world, author and environmental policy expert Michael Shellenberger argues that a bright future is possible -- if we take the right steps now.
Michael Shellenberger is an American author, environmental policy expert, and the president of Breakthrough Institute. He was named a Time magazine Heroes of the Environment (2008), winner of the 2008 Green Book Award, co-editor of Love Your Monsters (2011) and co-author of Break Through (Houghton Mifflin 2007) and The Death of Environmentalism (2004). He and his co-author Ted Nordhaus have been described as "ecological modernists" and "eco-pragmatists".
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDxTalks
- Duration:
- 21:55
Retired user commented on English subtitles for How humans save nature | Michael Shellenberger | TEDxMarthasVineyard | ||
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Denise RQ edited English subtitles for How humans save nature | Michael Shellenberger | TEDxMarthasVineyard | ||
Denise RQ approved English subtitles for How humans save nature | Michael Shellenberger | TEDxMarthasVineyard | ||
Denise RQ edited English subtitles for How humans save nature | Michael Shellenberger | TEDxMarthasVineyard | ||
Denise RQ edited English subtitles for How humans save nature | Michael Shellenberger | TEDxMarthasVineyard | ||
Denise RQ edited English subtitles for How humans save nature | Michael Shellenberger | TEDxMarthasVineyard |
Retired user
Spotted an error:
@4:52 the speaker says: around the middle of 18 century (not 19 century).
Retired user
Shouldn't 19 be in square brackets?