0:00:11.250,0:00:15.084
Human beings have done amazingly well[br]over the last half century.

0:00:15.476,0:00:19.734
In 1950, there were just[br]two and a half billion people on earth,

0:00:19.735,0:00:22.167
today there's more[br]than seven billion of us.

0:00:22.168,0:00:28.375
The percentage of people living[br]in absolute material poverty has declined,

0:00:28.376,0:00:31.922
from around 85% in the early 1800s,

0:00:31.923,0:00:34.174
to just around 15% today.

0:00:34.504,0:00:36.877
Everywhere infant mortality[br]has been going down,

0:00:36.878,0:00:39.383
and almost everywhere[br]people are living longer lives.

0:00:39.665,0:00:42.995
Unfortunately, all of our success

0:00:42.996,0:00:46.300
has come at a high cost[br]to the natural world.

0:00:46.790,0:00:52.183
The number of wild animals on planet Earth[br]has declined by half since 1970.

0:00:53.943,0:00:59.006
Why do we care about the fate[br]of the remaining golden monkeys in Rwanda?

0:00:59.711,0:01:02.950
After all, we'll also be[br]as materially rich if they're gone,

0:01:02.951,0:01:04.461
and live long lives.

0:01:05.051,0:01:07.801
I could try to make up a rational reason,

0:01:07.802,0:01:11.892
but for me, after spending a morning[br]with this mother and her baby,

0:01:12.446,0:01:13.673
and looking at them now,

0:01:13.674,0:01:16.641
looking at the way the mother[br]is looking at her baby, her eyes,

0:01:16.642,0:01:20.636
the way the baby is looking at the world[br]with that curiosity and that excitement,

0:01:20.637,0:01:23.739
it touches something[br]deeper in us than rationality.

0:01:24.699,0:01:28.372
Couldn't we say the same thing[br]about the children of Rwanda?

0:01:28.373,0:01:31.753
After all, we don't know them,[br]we are not Rwandans,

0:01:32.473,0:01:35.066
but we care deeply about them,

0:01:35.067,0:01:38.891
and we don't want three billion people[br]to continue to rely on wood

0:01:38.892,0:01:41.772
and to be trapped in poverty.

0:01:42.542,0:01:44.168
My name is Michael Shellenberger,

0:01:44.200,0:01:46.264
and I'm president[br]of Breakthrough Institute.

0:01:46.265,0:01:49.972
We're a research organization[br]that's committed to a big goal:

0:01:49.973,0:01:52.199
lift all humans out of poverty,

0:01:52.200,0:01:54.799
and return more of the Earth[br]to wild nature.

0:01:54.800,0:01:58.645
Over the last few years, we've been[br]focused on a particular question:

0:01:59.295,0:02:00.906
how humans save nature.

0:02:01.356,0:02:04.765
That may sound like[br]a strange thing to look at,

0:02:04.766,0:02:06.601
given everything I've just mentioned,

0:02:06.602,0:02:08.572
everything we hear about the environment.

0:02:08.573,0:02:11.072
You might even wonder,[br]"Do humans save nature?"

0:02:11.622,0:02:13.530
The answer is that we do.

0:02:13.531,0:02:15.852
What we've discovered

0:02:15.853,0:02:20.060
is that we do in a way that follows[br]what turns out to be a hidden pattern,

0:02:20.061,0:02:23.759
with specific elements[br]that are really true around the world

0:02:23.760,0:02:25.384
at different moments of time.

0:02:25.815,0:02:28.447
One of the things we found is[br]there's a number of trends

0:02:28.448,0:02:31.573
that are actually going[br]in the right direction on the environment.

0:02:32.053,0:02:34.683
If we take the right actions today,

0:02:34.684,0:02:37.756
the overall size of the human population,

0:02:37.757,0:02:40.381
and our overall negative impact[br]on the natural world,

0:02:40.382,0:02:42.907
could peak and decline[br]not by the end of the century,

0:02:42.908,0:02:44.654
but within a few decades.

0:02:44.655,0:02:47.060
But, there's a catch,

0:02:47.061,0:02:51.112
and that's that we will have to confront[br]some deep-seated fears

0:02:51.113,0:02:53.492
that we have about the world,

0:02:53.493,0:02:56.731
and we will have to confront[br]some important misconceptions.

0:02:57.741,0:03:01.046
To begin, if there's one thing[br]I want everybody to remember,

0:03:01.047,0:03:03.255
only one thing you get out of this talk,

0:03:03.256,0:03:06.470
it's that humans save nature[br]by not using it.

0:03:06.471,0:03:08.133
And this may sound strange,

0:03:08.134,0:03:11.394
because it seems like we're always[br]using nature in some ways,

0:03:11.395,0:03:15.670
but what I'm definitely not saying,[br]what we've definitely not found

0:03:15.671,0:03:18.403
is that we save nature[br]by using it more sustainably.

0:03:18.643,0:03:22.194
Our research suggest is we don't save[br]nature by using it sustainably,

0:03:22.195,0:03:24.020
we save nature by not using it.

0:03:25.117,0:03:27.300
What do I mean? We'll take a closer look.

0:03:27.301,0:03:30.090
Humans use about half of the Earth,

0:03:30.091,0:03:32.474
half of the land surface of the Earth,

0:03:32.475,0:03:35.448
the part of the Earth that's not[br]under water or under glaciers.

0:03:35.449,0:03:40.076
Of that half, about half[br]of the human impact is meat,

0:03:40.077,0:03:42.253
or 24% of the Earth surface,

0:03:42.254,0:03:44.360
and another 10% is crops,

0:03:44.361,0:03:47.556
another 9% or so is for wood production

0:03:47.557,0:03:49.829
- and this is really amazing -

0:03:49.830,0:03:54.097
just 3% of the Earth's surface[br]we use is cities and suburbs,

0:03:54.098,0:03:55.644
for the place that we live.

0:03:55.894,0:03:57.197
What's important about that

0:03:57.207,0:04:00.240
is that now half of all humans,[br]three and a half billions of us,

0:04:00.241,0:04:01.710
live in cities and suburbs,

0:04:01.711,0:04:06.058
and this will prove to be a crucial part[br]of how humans are going to save nature,

0:04:06.059,0:04:09.304
and how our negative impact[br]will peak and decline this century.

0:04:10.013,0:04:13.656
You can see that it's the part[br]of the Earth that we don't use,

0:04:14.413,0:04:15.914
that we leave to wild nature.

0:04:16.708,0:04:18.096
So, let's take a closer look.

0:04:18.096,0:04:21.112
I've mentioned there are three ways[br]in which humans save nature.

0:04:21.113,0:04:23.949
The first is we save it by not needing it.

0:04:23.950,0:04:26.999
I said before that we[br]save nature by not using it,

0:04:27.000,0:04:30.955
but we only don't use nature[br]by not needing it.

0:04:30.956,0:04:31.830
What do I mean?

0:04:31.831,0:04:34.509
Many of you know that here in New England,

0:04:34.510,0:04:37.168
including in New Bedford[br]and much of Massachusetts,

0:04:37.196,0:04:41.024
whaling was a huge industry[br]in the early 1800s.

0:04:41.474,0:04:44.360
Mostly we hunted whales for their oil.

0:04:44.361,0:04:49.216
We used their oil as energy[br]to light up our lamps.

0:04:49.217,0:04:52.146
Then something happened,[br]some of you may know what happened,

0:04:52.147,0:04:53.696
around the middle of 19 century.

0:04:53.697,0:04:58.775
This cartoon in Vanity Fair Magazine,[br]I think, says better than any.

0:04:58.781,0:05:00.742
It's a celebration, it's a party.

0:05:00.743,0:05:03.880
You see the whales are dressed up[br]in tuxedo's and ball gowns,

0:05:05.324,0:05:08.306
and it's in 1861,[br]and what the caption says is:

0:05:09.026,0:05:11.341
"Grand ball given by the whales,

0:05:11.342,0:05:14.713
in honor of the discovery[br]of oil wells in Pennsylvania."

0:05:15.543,0:05:19.037
We save nature by not using it,[br]we save nature by not needing it.

0:05:19.271,0:05:21.420
We didn't need the whales anymore,

0:05:21.421,0:05:23.864
we had a better substitute,[br]it was kerosene,

0:05:23.865,0:05:27.357
made from abundant and cheap petroleum.

0:05:27.697,0:05:31.415
We didn't save the whales[br]by using whales more sustainably,

0:05:31.416,0:05:33.009
we didn't save the whales

0:05:33.010,0:05:36.761
by having more efficient lighting[br]to burn the whale more efficiently:

0:05:36.762,0:05:39.775
we saved the whales by not hunting them.

0:05:40.425,0:05:42.475
This is New England in 1880.

0:05:42.476,0:05:47.091
There was only 30% of it[br]forested at that time,

0:05:47.092,0:05:49.413
most of the rest was farmland.

0:05:49.414,0:05:52.647
This is New England today, 80% forested.

0:05:52.648,0:05:58.100
Martha's Vineyard was really[br]a large sheep farm in 1900,

0:05:58.101,0:06:00.761
today it's mostly forested.

0:06:00.762,0:06:03.475
When you fly over it,[br]you can see the beautiful forest.

0:06:03.476,0:06:06.581
Yesterday I saw a wild osprey,[br]several wild osprey.

0:06:06.911,0:06:10.221
In New England and much of the rich world

0:06:10.222,0:06:13.524
nature is returning, the forests[br]are growing back. Why?

0:06:13.525,0:06:17.113
These farms mostly went bankrupt,

0:06:17.114,0:06:19.459
we mostly didn't need them[br]for their land anymore,

0:06:19.460,0:06:21.614
we became more efficient[br]at growing more food,

0:06:21.615,0:06:25.120
we grew more food on less land,[br]we saved all of that nature,

0:06:25.121,0:06:28.065
allowing forests to grow back[br]because we didn't need it.

0:06:28.985,0:06:31.483
Look this amazing photograph of Hong Kong.

0:06:31.883,0:06:35.157
Look this beautiful green forest[br]that surrounds Hong Kong.

0:06:36.128,0:06:39.553
Hong Kong is only able[br]to save that beautiful nature

0:06:39.554,0:06:41.843
because it doesn't need it[br]for growing food

0:06:41.844,0:06:44.103
or for using it for energy.

0:06:44.104,0:06:45.882
They've made an incredible city,

0:06:45.883,0:06:49.211
and people say if you go to the city[br]you'll be alienated from nature,

0:06:49.212,0:06:51.811
but look, they can walk[br]into the nature from Hong Kong.

0:06:51.812,0:06:55.259
Nature is right there,[br]they have wonderful access to it.

0:06:55.260,0:06:57.399
This is an important part

0:06:57.400,0:07:00.890
of how the human impact on the world[br]will peak and decline in a century.

0:07:00.891,0:07:03.623
More of us are going to move to cities,

0:07:03.624,0:07:06.995
and we're going to return[br]more of the Earth to nature,

0:07:06.996,0:07:09.452
and wild nature in particular.

0:07:09.842,0:07:13.372
You may wonder:[br]that sounds nice for Hong Kong,

0:07:13.373,0:07:14.897
but what about poor countries?

0:07:14.898,0:07:16.472
What about developing countries?

0:07:16.473,0:07:18.101
What about all the slums?

0:07:18.102,0:07:20.405
Isn't this really about industrialization,

0:07:20.406,0:07:22.560
about factories[br]where conditions are terrible,

0:07:22.561,0:07:24.866
and people are treated miserably.

0:07:24.867,0:07:26.664
That was certainly my view.

0:07:26.665,0:07:27.569
Twenty years ago,

0:07:27.570,0:07:31.231
I was involved in efforts to hold Nike[br]and other corporations accountable

0:07:31.232,0:07:33.936
for their labor practices[br]in other countries,

0:07:33.937,0:07:36.007
particularly in Indonesia.

0:07:37.237,0:07:41.051
It was a successful effort,[br]and Nike did make some improvements,

0:07:41.052,0:07:43.062
but twenty years later[br]I wanted to go back,

0:07:43.063,0:07:45.393
I wanted to see what[br]had happened to the workers,

0:07:45.394,0:07:47.840
had their lives really[br]improved materially?

0:07:47.841,0:07:50.251
I met this young woman,[br]her name is Supartie.

0:07:50.274,0:07:53.679
She is from a rice-growing village[br]in the countryside.

0:07:53.680,0:07:58.741
After high school, she decided she wanted[br]to join her aunt in a suburb of Jakarta,

0:07:58.742,0:08:01.064
and work there in one of the factories.

0:08:01.065,0:08:03.071
She got a job in a barbie factory,

0:08:03.072,0:08:07.124
making clothes and cutting the threads[br]off the barbies, and it was terrible.

0:08:07.125,0:08:12.749
She was verbally abused everyday,[br]she went home crying every night,

0:08:12.750,0:08:15.691
and she did something[br]extraordinarily brave,

0:08:15.692,0:08:17.491
and that's that she quit.

0:08:17.492,0:08:20.937
But she didn't want to go back home,[br]she didn't want to be a rice farmer,

0:08:20.938,0:08:23.331
she wanted a better life[br]for herself from the city.

0:08:24.673,0:08:26.983
She struggled but she found another job,

0:08:26.984,0:08:29.636
and she found a job[br]in a chocolate factory.

0:08:29.637,0:08:34.340
She's become an extraordinary[br]labor activist and woman's right activist,

0:08:34.341,0:08:38.919
and when I met her, she was[br]very positive about her future.

0:08:38.921,0:08:41.102
She has two cellphones,[br]she has a motorcycle,

0:08:41.102,0:08:43.341
she just bought a house,

0:08:43.342,0:08:47.212
she makes four times more money[br]than the people back in the village,

0:08:47.213,0:08:48.713
farming rice.

0:08:49.323,0:08:51.986
She's now saving money[br]to send her parents to Mecca,

0:08:51.987,0:08:55.235
which is a dream of Muslims[br]around the world.

0:08:56.755,0:08:58.116
This is what's happened:

0:08:58.117,0:09:03.185
since 1960, we're growing much more food[br]on much smaller amounts of land,

0:09:03.186,0:09:05.850
it's one of humankind's[br]most extraordinary achievements

0:09:05.851,0:09:08.482
with great benefits to the natural world.

0:09:08.483,0:09:13.575
We use half as much the land,[br]per person globally, to provide our food.

0:09:14.175,0:09:19.010
That's only possible, it's only possible[br]for Supartie to live in the city,

0:09:19.011,0:09:21.308
as long as she doesn't need[br]to make her own food,

0:09:21.309,0:09:23.283
and we're making more food[br]for more of us.

0:09:23.284,0:09:27.230
Before he died, Jacques Cousteau[br]had a similar vision for the oceans,

0:09:27.231,0:09:30.386
he knew that a rising human population,[br]a rising consumption,

0:09:30.387,0:09:33.441
would put enormous pressure on wild fish.

0:09:33.442,0:09:38.395
Wild fish is the last set of wild animals[br]that we in the rich world still eat.

0:09:39.025,0:09:42.133
While fish farming is still early days,

0:09:42.134,0:09:44.956
it's still a young technology,[br]has a long way to go,

0:09:44.957,0:09:48.894
it's going to be crucial[br]to releasing wild fish,

0:09:48.895,0:09:51.711
and returning more[br]of the oceans to wild nature.

0:09:51.712,0:09:54.255
So the first way we save nature[br]is by not needing it.

0:09:54.256,0:09:56.779
The second way is[br]that we have smaller families.

0:09:56.780,0:09:58.354
I mentioned Supartie,

0:09:58.355,0:10:01.176
now that she's in a city,[br]she wants that life for herself,

0:10:01.177,0:10:04.152
she wants the freedom,[br]she can date who she wants to date now,

0:10:04.153,0:10:07.421
is able to love who she wants to love,[br]marry who she wants to marry.

0:10:07.422,0:10:10.162
I asked her about her family history.

0:10:10.163,0:10:14.679
Her grandmother had thirteen children,[br]her mother had six, and Supartie said,

0:10:14.680,0:10:18.036
sometimes she wants to have two kids,[br]sometimes she wants to have four,

0:10:18.037,0:10:18.962
by choice.

0:10:18.963,0:10:21.016
In the countryside a poor farmer

0:10:21.017,0:10:23.415
needs a lot of kids[br]to help him work on the farm,

0:10:23.416,0:10:25.700
needs a lot of kids[br]to help him in retirement.

0:10:25.701,0:10:28.730
In the city, you can[br]invest more in fewer kids.

0:10:28.731,0:10:31.230
That trend's consistent around the world

0:10:31.231,0:10:35.093
as women become more powerful,[br]more educated, as they have more income.

0:10:35.094,0:10:38.385
They're able to do more things[br]with their lives,

0:10:38.386,0:10:40.771
choose to have fewer kids.

0:10:40.772,0:10:42.687
You can see it right here,

0:10:42.688,0:10:45.703
even though the overall population[br]has grown from two and a half

0:10:45.704,0:10:49.044
to seven billion[br]over the last fifty years,

0:10:49.045,0:10:53.643
you can see here that we don't know[br]what's going to happen next.

0:10:53.644,0:10:56.462
You see, there's one scenario[br]that we keep going up,

0:10:56.463,0:10:58.284
and another scenario that we go down.

0:10:58.285,0:11:02.212
What will determine whether we go[br]up or whether we go down?

0:11:02.213,0:11:06.235
These are two different estimates[br]by two different leading demographers.

0:11:06.236,0:11:07.880
The high population estimate,

0:11:07.881,0:11:11.388
where it would go up to 16 billion or more[br]by the end of the century,

0:11:11.389,0:11:16.500
is a world of low energy,[br]wood energy, wood, dung and charcoal,

0:11:16.510,0:11:19.281
and large families,[br]mostly in the countryside.

0:11:19.282,0:11:22.160
A world where the population[br]peeks at eight and half billion

0:11:22.161,0:11:24.625
and then declines[br]by the end of the century,

0:11:24.626,0:11:27.822
is a world that looks a lot more[br]like what Supartie is living in,

0:11:27.823,0:11:30.704
with higher energy, smaller families,

0:11:30.705,0:11:33.040
more development, and more opportunity.

0:11:33.041,0:11:35.601
We save nature by having smaller families,

0:11:35.602,0:11:37.122
and moving to number three,

0:11:37.123,0:11:39.803
the third part of the three ways[br]in which we save nature,

0:11:39.804,0:11:42.398
to using more high-tech forms of energy.

0:11:43.334,0:11:45.042
This is Maiyishia.

0:11:45.043,0:11:49.880
She is one of the 900 remaining[br]mountain gorillas left in the world.

0:11:49.881,0:11:51.583
As a baby, she grew up

0:11:51.584,0:11:56.460
in Africa's oldest national park[br]in Congo, called Virunga Park.

0:11:56.473,0:12:01.366
In 2007, her parents[br]and much of the rest of her group

0:12:01.367,0:12:05.659
were killed by men[br]making charcoal for energy.

0:12:05.660,0:12:12.357
Since then, there's been a number of[br]well-meaning efforts to plant trees,

0:12:12.367,0:12:16.403
to help people in the region[br]burn wood more efficiently,

0:12:16.404,0:12:19.240
and the situation has only gotten worse.

0:12:19.241,0:12:21.623
We visited it in December of last year.

0:12:21.624,0:12:24.493
This is a picture of the park,[br]an areal photo that we took

0:12:24.494,0:12:25.565
high above the park.

0:12:25.566,0:12:29.466
You can see here, the fires in the park,

0:12:29.467,0:12:34.291
here, here, and here,[br]illegal charcoal burning in the park.

0:12:34.292,0:12:35.071
Why?

0:12:35.072,0:12:37.710
Because people need it,[br]they need that nature.

0:12:37.711,0:12:40.946
Over 90% of the people[br]depend on wood for fuel.

0:12:41.996,0:12:45.066
We didn't save the whales[br]by using whales more sustainably,

0:12:45.067,0:12:47.442
by using whale oil more efficiently,

0:12:47.443,0:12:51.763
we saved the whales[br]by using a different kind of energy,

0:12:51.764,0:12:53.149
by using a substitute.

0:12:53.150,0:12:54.730
This is Supartie.

0:12:54.731,0:12:59.350
Supartie, like young women who move[br]to the city everywhere, uses propane,

0:12:59.351,0:13:02.813
what we use as camping fuel,[br]similar to natural gas that we all enjoy;

0:13:02.814,0:13:06.359
it's an important substitute[br]for the two to three billion people

0:13:06.360,0:13:09.961
that still depend on wood[br]and dung as their primary energy now.

0:13:10.681,0:13:14.309
Propane is a fossil fuel,

0:13:14.310,0:13:19.708
and that means that as the poorest people[br]in the world gain access to modern energy,

0:13:19.709,0:13:23.345
we're on schedule to have[br]a lot of global warming.

0:13:23.346,0:13:25.241
This is from the Nobel Prize winning

0:13:25.242,0:13:27.931
United Nations intergovernmental[br]panel on climate change.

0:13:27.932,0:13:29.903
You can see historical emissions,

0:13:29.904,0:13:35.306
and you can see in the different colors[br]various possible futures.

0:13:35.856,0:13:38.554
You can see there are[br]different possible increases.

0:13:38.555,0:13:41.584
We could go to five degrees[br]above pre-industrial temperatures,

0:13:41.585,0:13:44.425
we could go to one degree[br]under pre-industrial temperatures.

0:13:44.426,0:13:46.820
It depends on choices that we make today.

0:13:47.270,0:13:49.076
This is Shanghai.

0:13:49.496,0:13:53.354
As more of us move to the cities,[br]we're going to consume more energy.

0:13:53.355,0:13:57.519
For everybody to live[br]at a moderate living standard,

0:13:57.520,0:13:59.276
a basic material-needs-met,

0:13:59.277,0:14:01.535
the world is going to need to triple,

0:14:01.536,0:14:04.463
perhaps quadruple the amount[br]of energy produced as from today.

0:14:04.464,0:14:06.651
If all of that energy is fossil,

0:14:06.652,0:14:09.562
we're going to see much more[br]significant climate change.

0:14:09.563,0:14:13.164
What are the clean energy options?[br]There's not many.

0:14:13.165,0:14:17.701
There's solar, there's wind,[br]there's a little bit of geothermal,

0:14:17.702,0:14:20.054
there's hydro-electric dams,

0:14:20.055,0:14:22.222
and there's nuclear power plants.

0:14:23.282,0:14:25.192
Solar and wind are wonderful;

0:14:25.193,0:14:29.821
I've spent much of my professional career[br]advocating for more solar, for more wind,

0:14:29.822,0:14:32.883
including the wind farm[br]off the coast of Cape Cod.

0:14:33.513,0:14:37.044
But solar and wind alone[br]cannot power Shanghai at night,

0:14:37.045,0:14:39.674
and there's a lot of exciting[br]development in batteries,

0:14:39.675,0:14:43.487
but we're so far away from being able[br]to power cities on batteries.

0:14:44.957,0:14:47.406
Geothermal is great where it's available,

0:14:47.407,0:14:49.425
and it's not available in many places.

0:14:49.426,0:14:53.561
Hydro-electric dams have mostly[br]been built in the rich world,

0:14:53.562,0:14:56.481
we've mostly dammed the rivers,[br]and even in places like China,

0:14:56.482,0:14:58.554
many of the rivers[br]have already been dammed.

0:14:59.323,0:15:02.415
That means we have[br]to take a second look at nuclear power.

0:15:02.416,0:15:07.421
When I was boy, my aunt took me[br]every August to Bittersweet Park,

0:15:07.422,0:15:10.556
where we would remember[br]the Hiroshima bombings.

0:15:10.557,0:15:13.027
We would light candles,[br]putting them on paper boats,

0:15:13.028,0:15:14.492
pushed them into the ponds,

0:15:14.493,0:15:19.320
and meditate over war[br]and morality and responsibility.

0:15:19.321,0:15:25.002
A few years later I saw a television movie[br]about the aftermath of nuclear war,

0:15:25.012,0:15:27.639
and in high school I saw[br]the documentary of Hiroshima,

0:15:27.640,0:15:29.579
about the horrors of nuclear.

0:15:29.580,0:15:33.500
I was anti-nuclear my entire life,

0:15:33.501,0:15:35.993
and then I confronted this data,

0:15:35.994,0:15:39.557
and the challenge of meeting global[br]energy and development needs,

0:15:39.558,0:15:43.200
and also dealing with one of our[br]most serious environmental problems,

0:15:43.201,0:15:45.066
and I've changed my mind.

0:15:45.636,0:15:49.430
In that time I've spent a lot of time[br]understanding the technology.

0:15:49.431,0:15:51.399
Fear is a really important emotion

0:15:51.400,0:15:54.431
it wakes us up to the world,[br]it makes us aware of risk,

0:15:54.432,0:15:56.782
but if we allow fear to drive us,

0:15:56.783,0:16:00.286
we can end up making up decisions[br]that actually put us at greater risk.

0:16:00.612,0:16:03.432
So it's important to understand[br]what the scare is,

0:16:03.433,0:16:05.443
it's important to understand[br]nuclear power.

0:16:05.444,0:16:07.486
This is a nuclear plant in California.

0:16:08.281,0:16:11.793
You can see it's a remarkable[br]piece of technology,

0:16:11.794,0:16:15.133
on what is the equivalent[br]of about three football fields.

0:16:15.620,0:16:18.219
Lots of surrounding green nature.

0:16:18.220,0:16:20.533
It provides power for three million homes.

0:16:20.534,0:16:23.066
You can see it's built up[br]three times higher

0:16:23.083,0:16:25.657
than the tsunami that affected Fukushima.

0:16:25.658,0:16:28.511
There's backup water[br]in case there is a power outage,

0:16:28.512,0:16:30.532
they can keep reactors cool,

0:16:30.533,0:16:32.636
These domes are containment domes,

0:16:32.637,0:16:36.601
which means that if there's a melt down,[br]no radiation will escape.

0:16:36.602,0:16:41.414
And you can see here all around it,[br]natural life, sea life exists,

0:16:41.415,0:16:44.515
because nuclear power is zero-pollution.

0:16:44.885,0:16:47.710
One of the things we've learnt[br]about energy production is

0:16:47.711,0:16:49.857
that from the environmental perspective,

0:16:49.858,0:16:52.083
you want the least natural resource in,

0:16:52.084,0:16:54.170
the least amount of fuel in,

0:16:54.171,0:16:56.433
the most amount of energy out,

0:16:56.434,0:16:59.310
and the least amount[br]of pollution and waste.

0:17:00.750,0:17:07.632
You can't walk alongside a coal plant[br]and not be affected by the smoke.

0:17:07.633,0:17:09.821
You can with nuclear.

0:17:09.823,0:17:12.992
It's a serious issue[br]in terms of pollution,

0:17:12.992,0:17:17.304
and what nuclear provides[br]is reliable power 24 hours a day,

0:17:17.305,0:17:20.664
7 days a week, to power[br]big cities like Shanghai.

0:17:20.665,0:17:21.923
What about the accidents?

0:17:21.924,0:17:24.291
We hear so much about the accidents,

0:17:24.292,0:17:25.462
and we've reviewed

0:17:25.462,0:17:28.271
all of the peer-reviewed [br]scientific literature,

0:17:28.271,0:17:31.616
independently done,[br]and here's what it shows you.

0:17:31.617,0:17:35.885
The first thing to keep in mind is[br]that four million people die every year

0:17:35.886,0:17:38.688
from diseases related[br]to inhaling wood smoke.

0:17:38.689,0:17:41.895
From three billion people that rely[br]on wood as their primary energy,

0:17:41.896,0:17:44.120
four million die[br]from respiratory illnesses.

0:17:44.121,0:17:46.830
This is a measurement of power plants.

0:17:46.831,0:17:50.091
Number one, the most dangerous[br]form of energy is coal.

0:17:50.092,0:17:52.320
They look at accidents and air pollution,

0:17:52.321,0:17:55.644
but the remarkable thing is:[br]basically all the death is in blue,

0:17:55.645,0:17:59.156
you can barely see the green line[br]up there, are from air pollution.

0:17:59.256,0:18:02.990
Petroleum, second best or second worst;

0:18:02.991,0:18:05.203
natural gas, an improvement; and nuclear.

0:18:05.204,0:18:07.232
I push the button and it doesn't come up,

0:18:07.233,0:18:10.744
because the number of deaths[br]is too small to register on this chart.

0:18:11.294,0:18:15.502
The former NASA climate scientist[br]James Hansen did a study,

0:18:15.503,0:18:17.677
using standard public health science,

0:18:17.678,0:18:22.116
and calculated that 1.7 million lives[br]have been saved by nuclear energy.

0:18:22.117,0:18:26.232
What nuclear does is it leaves[br]the fossil energy in the ground.

0:18:26.233,0:18:29.022
We save nature by not using it,[br]by not needing it.

0:18:29.023,0:18:30.719
With nuclear you don't need fossil.

0:18:30.720,0:18:31.936
What about the waste?

0:18:31.937,0:18:34.498
This is the waste[br]from Pilgrim Nuclear Plant,

0:18:34.499,0:18:37.815
which provides 14% [br]of Massachusetts' electricity.

0:18:37.816,0:18:39.350
A lot of people fear this plant,

0:18:39.351,0:18:41.275
a lot of people fear California's plant.

0:18:41.276,0:18:44.200
This is the waste,[br]it's just sitting there,

0:18:44.201,0:18:47.300
it's not hurting anybody,[br]it's not going anywhere.

0:18:47.301,0:18:49.431
We have a couple of people watch it.

0:18:49.432,0:18:53.353
People say: "Well, but that waste is going[br]to be around for ten thousand years."

0:18:53.354,0:18:56.176
If that were true, even if that were true,

0:18:56.177,0:19:01.290
that small amount of waste would be,[br]I would suggest, a small price to pay

0:19:01.291,0:19:05.646
for universal prosperity[br]and returning more of the Earth to nature,

0:19:05.647,0:19:08.809
not to mention the public health benefits[br]of zero-carbon power.

0:19:08.810,0:19:10.379
But, here's the thing.

0:19:10.380,0:19:13.251
That waste will not be around[br]for tens of thousands of years,

0:19:13.252,0:19:16.281
it may not be around[br]for several more decades.

0:19:16.292,0:19:20.168
One of the most exciting collaborations[br]right now between United States and China

0:19:20.169,0:19:23.076
is to develop the molten salt reactor,

0:19:23.077,0:19:27.757
one the first commercial reactors[br]that uses that waste as fuel.

0:19:27.758,0:19:32.400
95% of the energy is still[br]in the so-called waste when it comes out,

0:19:32.401,0:19:34.698
there's no major[br]scientific breakthroughs needed,

0:19:34.699,0:19:36.996
it's going to be a tough[br]technological challenge,

0:19:36.997,0:19:38.751
but it can be achieved.

0:19:38.752,0:19:41.235
Another team led by Bill Gates,

0:19:41.236,0:19:44.442
and another team of MIT engineers[br]are all working on the same thing.

0:19:44.443,0:19:46.357
There are actually other groups as well.

0:19:46.358,0:19:50.351
There is a global competition to create[br]the world's first melt-down proof reactor,

0:19:50.352,0:19:53.222
that also consumes waste as fuel.

0:19:53.520,0:19:55.721
Let's take a look[br]at the environmental impacts.

0:19:55.722,0:19:57.763
I mentioned that what you get with nuclear

0:19:57.764,0:20:01.179
is a small amount of fuel going in,[br]a lot of energy coming out,

0:20:01.180,0:20:03.625
a small amount of fuel and zero pollution.

0:20:03.626,0:20:09.024
This is how much land[br]we used for energy in 2010.

0:20:09.025,0:20:11.466
I mentioned that if we want to achieve

0:20:11.467,0:20:15.424
universal prosperity,[br]universal development by 2050,

0:20:15.425,0:20:18.057
we need three times,[br]maybe four times as much as energy.

0:20:18.058,0:20:21.775
If it was all from nuclear,[br]the energy footprint will actually shrink.

0:20:21.776,0:20:23.830
If it were all from renewables,

0:20:23.831,0:20:27.269
it would grow to be the size[br]of North America and Alaska.

0:20:27.270,0:20:29.610
So, let's do solar and wind,

0:20:29.611,0:20:31.839
but we can't just do solar and wind

0:20:31.840,0:20:34.073
and return more of the Earth[br]to wild nature.

0:20:34.343,0:20:36.176
How do humans save nature?

0:20:36.177,0:20:37.961
I mentioned there's a hidden pattern,

0:20:37.962,0:20:40.923
and it's specific and consistent[br]around the world.

0:20:40.924,0:20:45.524
It consists in moving people[br]out of their dependence on wood

0:20:45.525,0:20:47.860
and agrarian poverty;

0:20:47.861,0:20:51.243
moving away from large families[br]to medium-sized families,

0:20:51.244,0:20:53.641
choosing to have smaller families;

0:20:53.642,0:20:56.419
access to the modern energy[br]so that the forests are spared,

0:20:56.420,0:20:59.411
that forests can grow back[br]from agriculture;

0:20:59.412,0:21:02.910
and then you see the final[br]and the last important step,

0:21:02.911,0:21:08.401
moving toward small families, universal[br]prosperity, and nuclear energy.

0:21:09.591,0:21:11.180
What is this a vision of?

0:21:11.181,0:21:14.603
Today we leave half[br]of the Earth for nature.

0:21:14.604,0:21:17.073
Can we leave 75% for nature?

0:21:17.074,0:21:19.512
We're going to need more lands for cities,

0:21:19.513,0:21:22.861
but given current trends,[br]we can drastically reduce

0:21:22.862,0:21:27.813
how much of the Earth we use[br]for wood, crops, and meat production.

0:21:28.543,0:21:30.996
Can we do it? I think we can.

0:21:30.997,0:21:34.206
Why am I so confident?[br]Because we've done it before.

0:21:34.207,0:21:35.831
Thank you very much.

0:21:35.831,0:21:37.369
(Applause)