How we could change the planet's climate future
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0:01 - 0:03I'm here to talk about climate change,
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0:03 - 0:06but I'm not really an environmentalist.
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0:07 - 0:10In fact, I've never really
thought of myself as a nature person. -
0:10 - 0:13I have never gone camping,
never gone hiking, -
0:13 - 0:15never even owned a pet.
-
0:16 - 0:17I've lived my whole life in cities,
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0:17 - 0:19actually just one city.
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0:19 - 0:22And while I like to take trips
to visit nature, -
0:22 - 0:25I always thought it was something
that was happening elsewhere, -
0:25 - 0:27far away,
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0:27 - 0:32with all of modern life
a fortress against its forces. -
0:33 - 0:34In other words,
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0:34 - 0:37like just about everybody I knew,
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0:37 - 0:40I lived my life complacent
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0:40 - 0:41and deluded
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0:41 - 0:44about the threat from global warming.
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0:44 - 0:47Which I took to be happening slowly,
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0:47 - 0:49happening at a distance
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0:49 - 0:54and representing only a modest threat
to the way that I lived. -
0:55 - 0:57In each of these ways,
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0:57 - 1:00I was very, very wrong.
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1:01 - 1:04Now most people, if they were telling you
about climate change, -
1:04 - 1:06will tell you a story about the future.
-
1:06 - 1:08If I was doing that, I would say,
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1:08 - 1:10"According to the UN,
if we don't change course, -
1:10 - 1:12by the end of the century,
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1:12 - 1:14we're likely to get about four degrees
Celsius of warming." -
1:14 - 1:17That would mean, some scientists believe,
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1:17 - 1:19twice as much war,
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1:19 - 1:20half as much food,
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1:22 - 1:27a global GDP possibly 20 percent smaller
than it would be without climate change. -
1:27 - 1:30That's an impact that's deeper
than the Great Depression, -
1:30 - 1:32and it would be permanent.
-
1:33 - 1:36But the impacts are actually happening
a lot faster than 2100. -
1:36 - 1:38By just 2050, it's estimated,
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1:38 - 1:42many of the biggest cities
in South Asia and the Middle East -
1:42 - 1:45will be almost literally
unlivably hot in summer. -
1:46 - 1:52These are cities that today are
home to 10, 12, 15 million people. -
1:53 - 1:55And in just three decades,
-
1:55 - 1:58you wouldn't be able
to walk around outside in them -
1:58 - 2:01without risking heatstroke
or possibly death. -
2:01 - 2:04The planet is now
1.1 degrees Celsius warmer -
2:04 - 2:07than it was before industrialization.
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2:07 - 2:09That may not sound like a lot,
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2:09 - 2:13but it actually puts us entirely
outside the window of temperatures -
2:13 - 2:15that enclose all of human history.
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2:16 - 2:21That means that everything
we have ever known as a species, -
2:22 - 2:24the evolution of the human animal,
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2:24 - 2:26the development of agriculture,
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2:26 - 2:28the development
of rudimentary civilization -
2:28 - 2:31and modern civilization
and industrial civilization, -
2:31 - 2:36everything we know about ourselves
as biological creatures, -
2:36 - 2:39as social creatures,
as political creatures, -
2:39 - 2:42all of it is the result
of climate conditions -
2:42 - 2:44we have already left behind.
-
2:46 - 2:50It's like we've landed
on an entirely different planet, -
2:50 - 2:53with an entirely different climate.
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2:53 - 2:54And we now have to figure out
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2:54 - 2:57what of the civilization
that we've brought with us -
2:57 - 3:00can endure these new conditions
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3:00 - 3:02and what can't.
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3:03 - 3:05And things will get worse from here.
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3:06 - 3:08Now for a very long time,
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3:08 - 3:11we were told that climate change
was a slow saga. -
3:11 - 3:14It started with the industrial revolution,
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3:14 - 3:15and it had fallen to us
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3:15 - 3:17to clean up the mess
left by our grandparents -
3:17 - 3:20so our grandchildren
wouldn't be dealing with the results. -
3:20 - 3:22It was a story of centuries.
-
3:23 - 3:26In fact, half of all of the emissions
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3:26 - 3:29that have ever been produced
from the burning of fossil fuels -
3:29 - 3:32in the entire history of humanity
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3:32 - 3:35have been produced
in just the last 30 years. -
3:36 - 3:39That's since Al Gore published
his first book on warming. -
3:40 - 3:43It's since the UN established
its IPCC climate change body. -
3:43 - 3:46We've done more damage since then
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3:46 - 3:50than in all the centuries,
all the millennia before. -
3:50 - 3:52Now I'm 37 years old,
-
3:52 - 3:55which means my life contains
this entire story. -
3:56 - 4:00When I was born,
the planet's climate seemed stable. -
4:01 - 4:03Today,
-
4:03 - 4:06we are on the brink of catastrophe.
-
4:07 - 4:11The climate crisis
is not the legacy of our ancestors. -
4:11 - 4:14It is the work of a single generation.
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4:16 - 4:17Ours.
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4:17 - 4:20This may all sound like bad news.
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4:20 - 4:22Which it is, really bad news.
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4:22 - 4:24But it also contains, I think,
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4:24 - 4:27some good news,
at least relatively speaking. -
4:27 - 4:30These impacts are terrifyingly large.
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4:30 - 4:34But they are also, I think, exhilarating.
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4:35 - 4:38Because they are ultimately a reflection
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4:38 - 4:41of how much power we have
over the climate. -
4:42 - 4:44If we get to those hellish scenarios,
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4:44 - 4:47it will be because
we have made them happen, -
4:47 - 4:50because we have chosen
to make them happen. -
4:51 - 4:55Which means we can choose
to make other scenarios happen, too. -
4:57 - 4:59Now that may seem too rosy to believe
-
4:59 - 5:02and the political obstacles
are in fact enormous. -
5:03 - 5:04But it is a simple fact --
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5:04 - 5:07the main driver of global warming
is human action: -
5:07 - 5:09How much carbon
we put into the atmosphere. -
5:09 - 5:11Our hands are on those levers.
-
5:11 - 5:16And we can write the story
of the planet's climate future ourselves. -
5:16 - 5:19Not just can -- but are.
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5:19 - 5:22Since inaction is a kind of action,
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5:22 - 5:26we'll be writing that story ourselves
whether we like it or not. -
5:27 - 5:28This is not just any story,
-
5:29 - 5:33all of us holding the future
of the planet in our hands. -
5:34 - 5:38It's the kind of story
we used to recognize only in mythology -
5:38 - 5:40and theology.
-
5:40 - 5:41A single generation
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5:41 - 5:44that has brought the future
of humanity into doubt -
5:44 - 5:48now tasked with securing a new future.
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5:50 - 5:51So what would that look like?
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5:52 - 5:56It could mean solar arrays
barnacling the planet, -
5:56 - 5:58really everywhere you looked.
-
5:58 - 6:01It could mean if we developed
better technology, -
6:01 - 6:04we wouldn't even need
to deploy them that broadly, -
6:04 - 6:07because it's been estimated
that just a sliver of the Sahara desert -
6:07 - 6:11absorbs enough solar power
to provide all the world's energy needs. -
6:11 - 6:14But we'd probably need
a new electric grid, -
6:14 - 6:17one that doesn't lose
two-thirds of its power to waste heat, -
6:17 - 6:19as is today the case in the US.
-
6:19 - 6:22We could use some more
nuclear power, perhaps, -
6:22 - 6:26although it would have to be an entirely
different kind of nuclear power, -
6:26 - 6:28because today's technology
simply isn't cost-competitive -
6:28 - 6:32with renewable energy
whose costs are falling so rapidly. -
6:32 - 6:34We'd need a new kind of plane,
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6:34 - 6:37because I don't think
it's particularly practical -
6:37 - 6:39to ask the entire world
to give up on air travel, -
6:39 - 6:41especially as so much of the global South
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6:41 - 6:43is, for the very first time,
able to afford it. -
6:45 - 6:47We need planes that won't produce carbon.
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6:47 - 6:49We need a new kind of agriculture.
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6:49 - 6:53Because we probably can't ask people
to entirely give up on meat and go vegan, -
6:53 - 6:55it would mean a new way of raising beef.
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6:55 - 6:57Or perhaps an old way,
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6:57 - 7:00since we already know
that traditional pasturing practices -
7:00 - 7:02can turn cattle farms
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7:02 - 7:05from what are called carbon sources,
which produce CO2, -
7:05 - 7:07into carbon sinks, which absorb them.
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7:08 - 7:09If you prefer a techno solution,
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7:09 - 7:12maybe we can grow
some of that mean in the lab. -
7:12 - 7:14Probably, we could also feed
some real cattle seaweed, -
7:14 - 7:19because that cuts their methane emissions
by as much as 95 or 99 percent. -
7:20 - 7:22Probably, we'd have to do
all of these things, -
7:22 - 7:25because as with every aspect
of this puzzle, -
7:25 - 7:28the problem is simply
too vast and complicated -
7:28 - 7:31to solve in any single silver-bullet way.
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7:32 - 7:35And no matter how many
solutions we deploy, -
7:35 - 7:38we probably won't be able
to decarbonize in time. -
7:39 - 7:41That's the terrifying math that we face.
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7:42 - 7:45We won't be able to beat climate change,
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7:45 - 7:47only live with it and limit it.
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7:48 - 7:49And that means we'd probably need
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7:49 - 7:52some amount of what are called
negative emissions, -
7:52 - 7:55which take carbon
out of the atmosphere as well. -
7:55 - 7:58Billions of new trees,
maybe trillions of new trees. -
7:58 - 8:02And whole plantations
of carbon-capture machines. -
8:02 - 8:05Perhaps an industry
twice or four times the size -
8:05 - 8:07of today's oil and gas business
-
8:07 - 8:12to undo the damage that was done
by those businesses in past decades. -
8:12 - 8:15We would need a new kind
of infrastructure, -
8:15 - 8:17poured by a different kind of cement,
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8:17 - 8:19because today, if cement were a country,
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8:19 - 8:22it would be the world's
third biggest emitter. -
8:22 - 8:25And China is pouring as much cement
every three years -
8:25 - 8:28as the US poured
in the entire 20th century. -
8:28 - 8:31We would need to build seawalls and levees
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8:31 - 8:34to protect those people
living on the coast, -
8:34 - 8:36many of whom are too poor
to build them today, -
8:37 - 8:43which is why it must mean an end
to a narrowly nationalistic geopolitics -
8:43 - 8:47that allows us to define the suffering
of those living elsewhere in the world -
8:47 - 8:48as insignificant,
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8:48 - 8:50when we even acknowledge it.
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8:50 - 8:52This better future won't be easy.
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8:53 - 8:56But the only obstacles are human ones.
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8:57 - 8:59That may not be much of a comfort,
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8:59 - 9:02if you know what I know
about human brutality and indifference, -
9:02 - 9:05but I promise you,
it is better than the alternative. -
9:05 - 9:07Science isn't stopping us
from taking action, -
9:07 - 9:09and neither is technology.
-
9:10 - 9:13We have the tools we need today to begin.
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9:14 - 9:17Of course, we also have the tools we need
to end global poverty, -
9:17 - 9:19epidemic disease
-
9:19 - 9:21and the abuse of women as well.
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9:21 - 9:26Which is why more than new tools,
we need a new politics, -
9:26 - 9:29a way of overcoming
all those human obstacles -- -
9:29 - 9:31our culture, our economics,
-
9:31 - 9:32our status quo bias,
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9:32 - 9:36our disinterest in taking seriously
anything that really scares us. -
9:36 - 9:38Our shortsightedness.
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9:38 - 9:40Our sense of self-interest.
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9:40 - 9:43And the selfishness
of the world's rich and powerful -
9:43 - 9:46who have the least incentive
to change anything. -
9:47 - 9:49Now, they will suffer too,
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9:49 - 9:52but not as much as those with the least,
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9:52 - 9:55who have done the least
to produce warming -
9:55 - 9:57and have benefited the least
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9:57 - 10:00from the processes that have brought us
to this crisis point -
10:00 - 10:02but will be burdened most
in the decades ahead. -
10:03 - 10:04A new politics
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10:04 - 10:07would make the matter
of managing that burden, -
10:08 - 10:10where it falls and how heavily,
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10:10 - 10:13the top priority of our time.
-
10:15 - 10:20No matter what we do,
climate change will transform modern life. -
10:22 - 10:26Some amount of warming
is already baked in and is inevitable, -
10:26 - 10:29which means probably some amount
of additional suffering is, too. -
10:29 - 10:31And even if we take dramatic action
-
10:31 - 10:35and avoid some of these
truly terrifying worst-case scenarios, -
10:35 - 10:39it would mean living
on an entirely different planet. -
10:39 - 10:42With a new politics, a new economics,
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10:42 - 10:44a new relationship to technology
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10:44 - 10:47and a new relationship to nature --
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10:47 - 10:49a whole new world.
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10:50 - 10:52But a relatively livable one.
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10:53 - 10:55Relatively prosperous.
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10:56 - 10:57And green.
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10:58 - 11:01Why not choose that one?
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11:02 - 11:03Thank you.
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11:03 - 11:08(Applause)
- Title:
- How we could change the planet's climate future
- Speaker:
- David Wallace-Wells
- Description:
-
The climate crisis is too vast and complicated to solve with a silver bullet, says author David Wallace-Wells. What we need is a shift in how we live. Follow along as he lays out some of the dramatic actions we could take to build a livable, prosperous world in the age of global warming.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 11:21
Oliver Friedman edited English subtitles for How we could change the planet's climate future | ||
Erin Gregory approved English subtitles for How we could change the planet's climate future | ||
Erin Gregory edited English subtitles for How we could change the planet's climate future | ||
Krystian Aparta accepted English subtitles for How we could change the planet's climate future | ||
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for How we could change the planet's climate future | ||
Ivana Korom edited English subtitles for How we could change the planet's climate future | ||
Ivana Korom edited English subtitles for How we could change the planet's climate future |