Elon Musk: The mind behind Tesla, SpaceX, SolarCity ...

(Applause)

Elon, what kind of crazy dream would persuade you to think of trying to take on the auto industry

and build an all electric car?

Well, it goes back to when I was in university, I thought about what are the problems that are

most likely to affect the future of the world or future of humanity.

I think it's extremely important that we have sustainable transport

and sustainable energy production.

That sort of overall sustainable energy problem is the biggest problem that we have to solve this century

independent of environmental concerns.

In fact, even if producing CO2 is good for the environment, given that it's we're going to run out

of hydrocarbons, we need to find some sustainable means of operating.

Most of most of America electricity comes from burning fossil fuels.

How can an electric car that plugs into that electricity help?

Right. There's two elements to that answer. One is that even if you take the same source fuel

and produce power at the power plant and use it to charge electric cars, you're still better off.

So if you take, say, natural gas, which is most prevalent in hydrocarbon source fuel,

if you if you burn that in a modern General Electric natural gas turbine, you'll get about 60 percent

efficiency. If you put that same fuel in an internal combustion engine car,

you get about 20 percent efficiency.

And the reason is in the stationary power plant, you can afford to have something that weighs a lot more,

is voluminous, and you can take the waste heat and run a steam turbine to generate

a secondary power source.

So, in effect, even if you take a transmission loss into account, everything, even using the same

source fuel, you're twice as at least twice as better off charging an electric car than burning it at the power plant.

That scale delivers efficiency?

Yes, it does. And then the other point is we have to have sustainable means of power generation anyway,

electricity generation. So given that we have to solve sustainable electricity

generation, then it makes sense for us to have electric cars as the as the mode of transport.

So we've got some video here of the Tesla being assembled,

which if you could play that that first video.

So what's what what is innovative about this process in this vehicle?

Sure. So in order to accelerate the advent of electric transport and I should say it,

I think, actually all modes of transport will become fully electric with the ironic exception of rockets.

[Laughs]

So there's just no way around Newton's third law.

The the the question is, how do you accelerate the advent of electric transport

in order to do that for cars, you have to come up with a really energy efficient car.

so that means making it incredibly light,
so what you're seeing here is the only

all-aluminium body and chassis
car made in North America.

In fact, we applied rocket design
techniques to make the car light

despite having a very large battery pack.

And then it also has the lowest drag
coefficient of any car of its size,

so as a result, the energy
usage is very low

and it has the most advanced battery pack,
and that's what gives it the range

that does it competitive,
so you can actually have

on the order of a 250 mile range.

Those battery packs are incredibly heavy,
but you think the math can still work out

intelligently by combining
light body, heavy battery,

you can still gain spectacular efficiency?

Exactly, the rest of the car has to be
very light to offset the mass of the pack

and then you have to have a low drag
coefficient to have good highway range.

In fact, customers of the Model S are
sort of competing with each other

to try to get the highest possible range.

I think somebody recently got 420
miles out of a single charge.

Bruno Bowden, how's here did that,
broke the world record: 420 miles.

That was the good news. The bad news
was that to do it he had to drive at 18 mph

constant speed, and got
pulled over by the cops.

[Laughs]

Yes, if you drive at sort of 65 mph
under normal conditions,

250 miles is a reasonable number.

Let's show that second video
showing the Tesla in action on ice,

not at all a digger for the New
York Times this by the way.

What's the most suprising thing about
the experience of driving the car?

In creating an electric car, the responsiveness
of the car is really incredible.

So we wanted to have people feel as though
they almost got a mind melt with the car.

So, you just feel like you and the car are
kind of one, as you corner and accelerate

it just happens like the car has ESP.

You could do that with electric
car because of its responsiveness,

you can't do that with a gasoline car.

I think that's a profound difference,
and people only experience that

when they have a test drive.

This is a beautiful but expensive car,
is there a roadmap where this

becomes a mass market vehicle?

Yeah, the goal of Tesla it's always been
to have a sort of three step process

where version 1 was an
expensive car and low volume,

version 2 is sort of medium
price and medium volume,

and then version 3 would be
low price and high volumes.

We're at step 2 at this point.

So we han a $100,000 sports
car, which is the roadster.

Then we've got the Model S
which starts at around $50,000,

and our third generation car, which
will hopefully be out in 3 or 4 years,

will be a $30,000 car.

Whenever you've got really new technology,

generally takes about three major
versions in order to make it

a compeling mass market product.

And I think we're making
progress in that direction,

and I feel confident that
we will get there.

Right now, if you've got a
short commute you'd drive,

you can get, you can charge it at home.

There isn't a huge national network
of charging stations now that are fast.

Do you see that coming, really, truly,
or just on a few key routes?

There actually are far more charge
stations than people realize.

We've developed the super charging
technology, and we are offering that,

if you buy a Model S, for free, forever.

And that's something a lot
of people don't realize.

We actually have California
and Nevada covered.

We've got the Eastern seabord
from Boston to DC covered.

By the end of the [...] you'll be able
to drive from LA to New York

just using the supercharging network,

which charges at five time
the rate of anything else.

And the key thing is to have a ratio
of drive to stop time of about 6 or 7.

So if you drive for 3 hours you
want to stop for 20-30 minutes,

because that's normally
what people would stop for.

So, if you start a trip at 9 am, by noon
you want to stop, take a bite to eat,

hit the restroom, coffee, and keep going.

So your proposition, as the full
charge can take an hour, is:

don't expect to be out of here
in 10 minutes, wait for an hour.

But the good news is you're
helping save the planet,

and by the way the electricity
is free, you don't pay anything.

Actually, what we're expecting is for people
to stop for about 20 to 30 minutes,

not for an hour.

It's actually better to drive for about 160-170
miles and then stop for half an hour,

and then keep going, that's
the natural cadence of a trip.

Alright. So, this is only one
string to your energy bow.

You've been working on the
solar company, Solar City.

What's unsual about that?

As I mentioned earlier, we have to have
a sustainable electricity production

as well as consumption,

so I am quite confident that the primary
means of power generation will be solar.

I mean, it's really indirect
fusion what it is.

We've got this giant fusion generator
in the sky called the Sun,

and we just need to tap a little of that energy
for purpouses of human civilization.

Most people know but don't realize
they know, is that the world is almost

entirely solar powered already.

If the Sun wasn't there we'd be a
frozen ice pole of 3 degrees Kelvin.

And the Sun powers the entire
system of precipitation.

The whole ecosystem is solar powered.

But in a gallon of gasoline you have
effectively thousands of years of Sun power

compressed into a small space,

so it's hard to make the numbers
work right now on solar,

and to remotely compete with
for example natural gas.

How are you gonna build a business here?

Actually, I confident that solar
will beat everything hands down,

including natural gas.

How?

[Applauses]

It must actually. If it doesn't
we're in deep trouble.

You are not selling solar panels
to consumers, what are you doing?

No, we actually are. You can buy a solar
system, or you can lease a solar system.

Most peolpe choose to lease.

The thing about solar power is that it doesn't
have any feed stop or operational cost.

So, once it's installed it's just
there. It works for decades.

It'll work for probably a century.

So therefore, the key thing to do is to get
the cost of that initial installation low

and then get the cost
of the financing low,

because those are the 2 factors
that drive the cost of solar.

And we've made huge
progress in that direction,

and that's why I'm confident
we'll actually beat natural gas.

So your current proposition to consumers is:

dont' pay so much up front
(zero), pay zero upfront

we will install panels on your roof.

You'll then pay... How
long is a typical lease?

Typical leases are 20 years, but the value
proposition is quite straightforward.

It's no money down, and
your [utility bill] decreases.

It's a pretty good deal.

That seems like a windfall,
you can see no risk,

you'll pay less than you are paying now.

But for you, the dream then is that.... who
owns the electricity from those panels

for the longer term. How do
you, the company, benefit?

Solar City raises [a ...] capital,
from a company or a bank.

Google is one of our big partners here.

And they have an expected
return on that capital.

With that capital Solar City purchases
and installs the panel on the roof,

and then charges the home owner or
business owner a monthly lease payment,

which is less than the utility [bill].

You yourself get a solar long term
commercial benefit from that panel,

you're kinda building a new
type of distributed utility.

Exactly, what it amounts to
is a giant distributed utility.

And I think it's a good think because
utilities have been this monopoly

and people haven't had any choice.

So effectively it's the first time there's
been competition for this monopoly,

because utilities have been the only ones
that owned those power distribution lines

but now is on your roof, so I think
it's actually very empowering

for home owners and businesses.

And you really picture a future where
a majority of power in America

like within a decade or two, or within
your lifetime, is going solar?

I'm extremely confident that solar
will be at least a plurality of power

and most likely a majority.

I predict there will be a plurality
in less than 20 years.

And the definition of plurality is...?

More from solar than any other source.

Who did you make that up with?

With a friend who remain nameless.

Just between us...

[Laughs]

I made that bet like 2 or 3 years ago,
so roughly 18 years I think will see

more power from solar than any other source.

So let's go back to another bet that
you made with yourself I guess.

A kind of crazy bet. You made some
money from the sale of PayPal.

You decided to build a Space company.
Why on Earth would someone do that?

[Laugher]

I've got that question a lot, that's true...

Did you hear the joke about the guy who
made a small fortune in the Space Industry?

Obviously, he started with a
large one is the punch line.

I tell people, I was trying to figure out
the fastest way to turn a large fortune

into a small one, and the look
at me like: are you serious??!!

[Laughs]

And strangely, you were.

It was a close call. Things almost didn't
work out. We came very close to failure

but we managed to get
throught that point in 2008.

The goal of SpaceX is to try
to advance rocket technology,

and particularly to try to crack a
problem that I think is vital for humanity

to become a spacefaring civilization.

Which is to have a rapidly
a fully reusable rocket.

Would humanity become a
spacefaring civilization?

That was a dream of yours from a young
age or you've dreamed of Mars and beyond?

I did build rockets when I was a kid but
I didn't think I'd be involved in this.

It was really more from the standpoint
of what are the things that need to happen

in order for the future to be
an exciting and inspiring one?

I really think there's a fundamental
difference if you start looking the future

between a humanity that is out there,
exploring the stars, on multiple planets.

And I think that's really exciting compared
with one we are forever confined to Earth

until some eventual extinction event.

You've somehow flushed the cost of
building a rocket by 75% depending on how

you calculate it. How on
Earth have you done that?

NASA has been doing this for years.
How have you done this?

We've made significant advances in the
technology of the airframe, the engines,

the optronics and the [abort] operation.

There's a long list of innovations that
are a little difficult to communicate

in this talk, but...

Not list because you can still get copied
right? You haven't patented this stuff.

You think it's more dangerous
to patent than not patent?

Since our primary competitors
are national governments,

the enforceability of
patents is questionable.

[Laughs]

Really interesting.

But the big innovationg is still ahead,
and you're working on it now.

Tell us about this.

Let's roll that video and you can talk
us through it what's happening here.

Absolutely

The thing about rockets is
that they're all expendable.

All our rockets that fly
today are fully expendable.

The Space Shuttle was an
attemp at a reusable rocket,

but even the main tank of the Space
Shuttle was thrown away every time.

And the parts that they were reusable
took a 10,000 person group,

and 9 months to refurbish for flight.

So the Space Shuttle ended up
costing $1 billion per flight.

Obviously that doesn't work well for...

So what just happened there?

We just saw something land?

That's right. So, it's important that the
rocket stages be able to come back

to be able to return to the launch
site and be ready to launch again

within a matter of hours.

Wow... Reusable rockets.

Yes.

What I would like you to realize is that
the cost of the fuel of the propellant

is very small, is much like on a jet.

So the cost of the propellant is about
0.3% of the cost of the rocket.

So it's possible to achieve roughly a
hundredfold improvement in the cost of

Space flight if you can
effectively reuse the rocket.

That's why it's so important.

Every mode of transport that we use,
whether is planes, trains, automobiles, bikes,

horses, is reusable. But not rockets.

So we must solve this problem in
order to become a SpaceFrank civilization.

You asked me the question earlier of
how popular traveling on cruises would be

if you had to burn your ship...

Certain cruises apparently
are highly problematic.

It would be more expensive.

So that's potentially absolutely
disruptive technology,

and I guess paves the way
for your dream to actually

take Humanity to Mars at scale,
and set a colony on Mars.

Exactly. SpaceX or some combination
of companies and governments

need to make progress in the direction
of making life multiplanetary

establishing a base on another planet,
on Mars being the only realistic option.

In building that base up until we
are a true multiplanet species.

So, progress on this "let's make
it reusable", how's that going?

That was just a simulation video
we saw. How's that going?

We've been making some
good progress recently,

with something we call the
Grasshopper Test Project,

where we are testing the vertical
landing of this sort of terminal portion

which is quite tricky. And we
had some good tests...

Can we see that?

Just to give a sense of scale, we
dressed the cowboy [as Johnny Cash]

and [bolted] the maniquin to the rocket.

[Laughs]

All right, let's see that video then.

Because this is amazing when you think
about it. You've never seen this before.

A rocket blasting off and then...

The rocket is about the size
of a twelve-storey building.

So now it's hovering at about 40
meters, and it's constantly adjusting

the angle of the [...] of the main engine.

And mantaining [roll]
with the gas thrusters.

[Applauses]

Elon, how have you done this?

[Laughs]

This projects are so... This PayPal,
Solar City, Tesla, SpaceX.

They're so spectacularly different, they're
such ambitious projects at scale.

How on Earth is one person being able to
innovate in this way? What it is about you?

I don't know actually.

I don't have a good answer for you.
I work a lot. I mean, a lot...

I have a theory.

My theory is that you have an ability
to think at a system level of design.

Pull together design, technology and business,
into one package syntesized in a way

that very few people can, and, here's the
critical thing, feel so damn confident

in that click-together package
that you take crazy risks,

you bet your fortune on it, and you
seem to have done that multiple times.

I mean, almost no one can do that.

We have some of that secret source,
can we put it into our education system?

Can someone learn from you?
It's truly amazing what you've done.

Thank you.

Well, I do think a good framework
for thinking is physics.

You know, the sort of
first principles reasoning.

What I mean about that is, boil things
down to their fundamental truths

and reason up from there, as
opposed to reasoning by analogy.

Through most of our lifes we get
throught life by reasoning by analogy,

which essentially means copying what
other people do with slight variations.

And you have to do that. Otherwise, it's mentally,
you wouldn't be able to get through the day.

But when you want to do something new, you
have have apply the physics approach.

Physics is really sort of figure out

how to discover new things
that are counterintuititve,

like quantum mechanics, it's really counterintuitive.

So I think I think that's an important thing to do and then also to really pay attention to negative

feedback and solicit it, particularly from friends.

This may sound like some sort of simple advice, it's hardly anyone does that,

and its incredibly helpful.

Boys and girls watching, study Physics. Learn from this man [Laughs]

Elon Musk, I wish we had all day. [applause]

But thank you so much for coming.

Thank you.

That was awesome.

Look at that..

(Applause)

That was fantastic.

(Applause)

Thank you so much.