Can you solve the monster duel riddle? - Alex Gendler
-
0:08 - 0:12You’ve come a long way to compete
in the great Diskymon league -
0:12 - 0:15and prove yourself a Diskymon master.
-
0:15 - 0:19Now that you’ve made it to the finals,
you’re up against some tough competition. -
0:19 - 0:23As you enter the arena,
the referee explains the rules. -
0:23 - 0:26There are three Diskydisks you can use.
-
0:26 - 0:30Disk A will always summon
a level 3 Burgersaur. -
0:30 - 0:36Disk B summons a Churrozard
that has a 56% chance of being level 2, -
0:36 - 0:43a 22% chance of being level 4,
and a 22% chance of being level 6. -
0:43 - 0:49Disk C will summon a level 5 Wartortilla
49% of the time, -
0:49 - 0:54and a level 1 Wartortilla 51% of the time.
-
0:54 - 1:01All Diskymon fully heal between battles,
and the higher level Diskymon always wins, -
1:01 - 1:03no matter what type it is.
-
1:03 - 1:06In round one, you’ll face
a single opponent -
1:06 - 1:10and get to choose your disk
before she picks from the remaining two. -
1:10 - 1:13Which one gives you the best chance
of winning? -
1:13 - 1:15Pause here to figure it out yourself
-
1:15 - 1:16Answer in 3
-
1:16 - 1:18Answer in 2
-
1:18 - 1:20Answer in 1
-
1:20 - 1:23Before you start calculating
probabilities, -
1:23 - 1:26take a look at the disks themselves.
-
1:26 - 1:31Disks B and C each have
a more than 50% chance -
1:31 - 1:36of summoning a level 2 or a level 1
Diskymon, respectively. -
1:36 - 1:40This means that disk A’s guaranteed
level 3 Burgersaur -
1:40 - 1:44will always have better than even
odds of winning. -
1:44 - 1:50If you choose B or C, your opponent could
pick A and gain an advantage over you. -
1:50 - 1:58And C fares worst of all, being more
than 50% likely to lose to any opponent. -
1:58 - 2:02So you choose A, hoping for the best,
and sure enough, -
2:02 - 2:07your level 3 Burgersaur triumphs
over the level 2 Churrozard. -
2:07 - 2:11Now it’s time for round two,
and while you’ve prepared for trouble, -
2:11 - 2:14you didn’t anticipate
they’d make it double. -
2:14 - 2:17You get to choose any one
of the three disks again, -
2:17 - 2:22but this time, you’ll be in a battle
royale against two opponents, -
2:22 - 2:25each using one of the other disks.
-
2:25 - 2:29Whoever summons the highest
level Diskymon wins. -
2:29 - 2:31Should you stick with A, or switch?
-
2:31 - 2:33Pause now to figure it out yourself
-
2:33 - 2:34Answer in 3
-
2:34 - 2:36Answer in 2
-
2:36 - 2:39Answer in 1
-
2:39 - 2:41For many Diskymon trainers,
-
2:41 - 2:45it seems intuitive that if A
is the best at beating B or C, -
2:45 - 2:49it should also be the best at beating
B and C. -
2:49 - 2:53Strangely enough, that couldn’t be
further from the truth. -
2:53 - 2:55Let’s calculate the odds.
-
2:55 - 2:59For A to win, B has to summon
a level 2 Diskymon, -
2:59 - 3:02and C has to summon a level 1.
-
3:02 - 3:11Those are independent events,
so their odds are 56% times 51%, or 29%. -
3:11 - 3:16For disk B, a level 2 Churrozard would
automatically lose to the Burgersaur. -
3:16 - 3:19But you’d have two ways to win.
-
3:19 - 3:24The 22% chance of summoning a level 6
would give you an outright win, -
3:24 - 3:29while a level 4 could still win if C
summons a level 1. -
3:29 - 3:35Adding up those mutually exclusive
possibilities gives you odds of about 33%. -
3:35 - 3:39Finally, C will win
with a level 5 Wartortilla -
3:39 - 3:47as long as B doesn’t summon its level 6,
giving C a 38% chance overall. -
3:47 - 3:52So while disk A’s middling consistency
was an advantage in a single matchup, -
3:52 - 3:55multiple fights increase the odds
-
3:55 - 3:58that one of the other disks
will summon something better. -
3:58 - 4:02And although C was the worst
first-round option, -
4:02 - 4:06its decent chance of summoning
a strong level 5 gives it an advantage -
4:06 - 4:09when facing two opponents simultaneously.
-
4:09 - 4:14This sort of counterintuitive result
is why misleading statistics -
4:14 - 4:17are a favored tool
of unscrupulous politicians -
4:17 - 4:21and nefarious Diskymon trainers alike.
-
4:21 - 4:27Fortunately, your Wartortilla comes out
level 5 and makes short work of its foes. -
4:27 - 4:31You’re about to celebrate
when your rivals capture the referee -
4:31 - 4:34and announce a surprise third round.
-
4:34 - 4:37You’ll have to repeat each
of the previous matches in succession, -
4:37 - 4:43with all the same rules except for one:
you must keep the same disk throughout. -
4:43 - 4:47Which should you choose
to give yourself the best chance -
4:47 - 4:50at becoming that which no one ever was?
- Title:
- Can you solve the monster duel riddle? - Alex Gendler
- Speaker:
- Alex Gendler
- Description:
-
View full lesson: https://ed.ted.com/lessons/can-you-solve-the-monster-duel-riddle-alex-gendler
You’ve come a long way to compete in the great Diskymon league and prove yourself a Diskymon master. Now that you’ve made it to the finals, you’re up against some tough competition. In round one, you’ll face a single opponent and get to choose your disk before she picks from the remaining two. Can you choose the one that gives you the best chance of winning? Alex Gendler shows how.
Lesson by Alex Gendler, directed by Artrake Studio.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TED-Ed
- Duration:
- 04:53
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Tara Ahmadinejad edited English subtitles for Can you solve the monster duel riddle? | ||
Tara Ahmadinejad edited English subtitles for Can you solve the monster duel riddle? |