What if a US presidential candidate refuses to concede after an election?
-
0:01 - 0:05OK, as an attorney,
as a political commentator, -
0:05 - 0:08and frankly, as a former
White House official, -
0:08 - 0:10I used to think I knew a lot
-
0:10 - 0:12about how America picks a president.
-
0:12 - 0:14I was wrong, I did not know.
-
0:14 - 0:16And this year,
-
0:16 - 0:18I've been doing some research
into some of the fine print -
0:18 - 0:21and all the different things
in our constitution -
0:21 - 0:23that we never talk about,
-
0:23 - 0:25and I've discovered some legal loopholes
-
0:25 - 0:27that shocked me,
-
0:27 - 0:29I guarantee will shock you,
-
0:29 - 0:31and could determine the way
-
0:31 - 0:34that the presidential election
of 2020 turns out. -
0:34 - 0:38For instance, did you know
that under our constitution -
0:38 - 0:42a presidential candidate
could actually lose the popular vote, -
0:42 - 0:45fail to get a majority
in the electoral college, -
0:45 - 0:47refuse to concede,
-
0:48 - 0:50manipulate hidden mechanisms
in our government -
0:50 - 0:55and still get sworn in as the president
of the United States of America? -
0:55 - 0:57That's a true fact.
-
0:57 - 0:59I know it sounds like some crazy
"House of Cards" episode, -
0:59 - 1:01and I wish it was,
-
1:01 - 1:03because then we could just
change the channel, -
1:03 - 1:07but I just described to you
a real-world, real-life possibility -
1:07 - 1:10that could occur this year,
the year I'm talking, in 2020, -
1:10 - 1:12or in some other year,
-
1:12 - 1:16if we don't fix some of these
glitches in our system. -
1:16 - 1:17So if you think, though,
-
1:17 - 1:21that the American people's choice
in a US presidential election -
1:21 - 1:25should actually be sworn in
to become president of the United States, -
1:25 - 1:26please pay attention to this talk.
-
1:26 - 1:31I'm going to teach you
how to stop a coup, OK? -
1:31 - 1:33Now, where to begin?
-
1:33 - 1:34Alright, how about this:
-
1:34 - 1:39It turns out that one of the main
safeguards of US democracy -
1:39 - 1:41is not in the constitution at all.
-
1:41 - 1:43It's not in the law at all.
-
1:43 - 1:46It's actually just a little tradition,
it's a little custom. -
1:46 - 1:51And yet, this one voluntary gesture
-
1:51 - 1:52is one of the main reasons
-
1:52 - 1:56that you almost never have riots
and bloodshed and strife -
1:56 - 1:58after a US election.
-
1:58 - 2:00What I'm talking about
is a concession speech. -
2:00 - 2:02OK, it's ironic,
-
2:02 - 2:05it's the one speech no presidential
candidate ever wants to give, -
2:05 - 2:08and yet, it is that public address
-
2:08 - 2:10that is most important for the health
-
2:10 - 2:12and the well-being of our nation.
-
2:12 - 2:15It's that speech, you know,
when a presidential contender gives, -
2:15 - 2:18it's after the advisers come
and the media tells them, -
2:18 - 2:22"Look, you're not going
to get enough votes -
2:22 - 2:27to be able to hit that magic number
of 270 electoral college votes. -
2:27 - 2:29You're just not going to get there."
-
2:29 - 2:31At that moment --
-
2:31 - 2:32you don't think about this,
-
2:32 - 2:35but the fate of the entire republic
-
2:35 - 2:38is in the hands of a single politician
-
2:38 - 2:40and their willingness to walk out there
-
2:40 - 2:43and stand in front of their family
and stand in front of the cameras -
2:44 - 2:45and stand in front of the whole nation
-
2:45 - 2:49and say, "I am conceding
the race, voluntarily. -
2:49 - 2:51Thank you to my supporters.
-
2:51 - 2:54The other person has won now,
congratulations to them, -
2:54 - 2:57let's unite behind them,
let's move on, let's be one country. -
2:57 - 2:58God bless America."
-
2:58 - 3:00You've seen it a thousand times.
-
3:00 - 3:03Make no mistake,
-
3:03 - 3:06this is a remarkable tradition
in our country. -
3:06 - 3:07Because at that moment,
-
3:08 - 3:10that candidate still has at her command
-
3:10 - 3:15a nationwide army of campaign activists,
-
3:15 - 3:17of die-hard partisans,
-
3:17 - 3:19tens of thousands of people.
-
3:19 - 3:22They could just as easily take up arms,
-
3:22 - 3:23take to the streets,
-
3:23 - 3:25they could do whatever they want to.
-
3:25 - 3:29But that concession speech
instantly demobilizes all of them. -
3:29 - 3:31It says, "Hey, guys, stand down.
-
3:31 - 3:33Folks, it's over."
-
3:33 - 3:34Moreover, that concession speech
-
3:34 - 3:40helps the tens of millions of people
who voted for that person -
3:40 - 3:41to accept the outcome.
-
3:41 - 3:44Acknowledge the winner,
however begrudgingly, -
3:44 - 3:46and then just get up the next morning,
-
3:46 - 3:47go to work, go to school,
-
3:47 - 3:48maybe disappointed
-
3:48 - 3:51but not disloyal to America's government.
-
3:51 - 3:53And even more importantly,
-
3:53 - 3:56that concession speech
has a technical function -
3:56 - 3:58in that it kind of allows
all the other stuff -
3:58 - 4:01that our constitution requires
after the voting, -
4:01 - 4:03and there are a bunch of steps like,
-
4:03 - 4:05you've got the electoral college
that has got to meet, -
4:05 - 4:08you've got Congress
who's got to ratify this thing, -
4:08 - 4:10you've got an inauguration to be had,
-
4:10 - 4:13all that stuff can just move ahead
on automatic pilot -
4:13 - 4:14because after the concession speech,
-
4:14 - 4:16every subsequent step
-
4:16 - 4:20to either reinstate the president
or elevate a new president -
4:20 - 4:22just happens on a rubber-stamp basis.
-
4:22 - 4:24The constitution requires it,
but it's a rubber stamp. -
4:24 - 4:28But we sometimes forget,
candidates do not have to concede. -
4:28 - 4:31There's nothing that makes them concede.
-
4:31 - 4:35It's just a norm in a year
in which nothing is normal. -
4:35 - 4:39So what if a losing candidate
simply refuses to concede? -
4:39 - 4:42What if there is no concession speech?
-
4:42 - 4:45Well, what could happen might terrify you.
-
4:45 - 4:46I think it should.
-
4:46 - 4:48First, to give you
the background, -
4:48 - 4:50let's make sure
we're on the same page, -
4:50 - 4:51let me give you this analogy.
-
4:51 - 4:55Think about a presidential election
as a baseball game. -
4:55 - 4:56The end of the ninth inning,
-
4:56 - 4:59whoever is ahead wins,
whoever is behind loses. -
5:00 - 5:01That's baseball.
-
5:01 - 5:03But could you imagine
a different world -
5:03 - 5:04in which, in baseball,
-
5:04 - 5:09there were actually 13 innings,
or 14 innings, not just nine. -
5:09 - 5:11But we just had a weird tradition.
-
5:11 - 5:13If you are behind in the ninth inning,
-
5:14 - 5:16you just come out and concede.
-
5:16 - 5:17Alright?
-
5:17 - 5:19So all those other innings don't matter.
-
5:19 - 5:23That's really how the presidential
elections work in America. -
5:23 - 5:26Because the constitution
actually spells out -
5:26 - 5:28two different sets of innings.
-
5:28 - 5:31You've got the popular election process
that everybody pays attention to. -
5:31 - 5:34And then you've got
the elite selection process -
5:34 - 5:37that everybody essentially ignores.
-
5:37 - 5:39But in a close election,
-
5:39 - 5:41if nobody concedes,
-
5:41 - 5:43the second invisible process,
-
5:43 - 5:46these extra innings if you will,
-
5:46 - 5:47they actually matter a whole lot.
-
5:47 - 5:49Let me explain.
-
5:49 - 5:51That first set of innings,
popular election, -
5:51 - 5:52it's what you think about
-
5:52 - 5:54when you think about
the presidential election. -
5:54 - 5:57It's the primaries,
the caucuses, the debates, -
5:57 - 5:59the conventions, it's election night,
-
5:59 - 6:00it's all that stuff.
-
6:00 - 6:03Most of the time,
the loser on election night -
6:03 - 6:05at that point just concedes.
-
6:05 - 6:07Why? "The American people have spoken."
-
6:07 - 6:08All that.
-
6:08 - 6:12But according to the constitution,
the game is technically not over. -
6:12 - 6:14After the cameras go away,
-
6:14 - 6:16after the confetti's swept away,
-
6:16 - 6:20the constitution requires
this whole other set of innings. -
6:20 - 6:22This elite selection process stuff,
-
6:22 - 6:24and this is all behind closed doors,
-
6:24 - 6:26it's among government officials.
-
6:26 - 6:30And this process goes from the end
of the vote counting in November, -
6:30 - 6:33through December all the way
and then January. -
6:33 - 6:34You just never think about it,
-
6:34 - 6:36because for so many generations,
-
6:36 - 6:39these extra innings haven't mattered much
-
6:39 - 6:42because the election-night
loser just concedes. -
6:42 - 6:44So this other stuff is just a formality.
-
6:44 - 6:45Even in 2000,
-
6:45 - 6:47vice president Al Gore gave up
-
6:47 - 6:51as soon as the Supreme Court
ordered an end to the vote counting. -
6:51 - 6:54Gore did not continue the fight
into the state legislatures, -
6:54 - 6:55into the electoral college,
-
6:55 - 6:57into Congress,
-
6:57 - 6:59he didn't try to discredit
the results in the press. -
6:59 - 7:04Frankly, he didn't send his supporters
out into the streets -
7:04 - 7:05with protest signs
-
7:05 - 7:07or pitchforks or long guns.
-
7:07 - 7:10As soon as the court said
the vote count is done, -
7:10 - 7:14he just conceded to George W. Bush.
-
7:14 - 7:16Because that's what we do,
-
7:16 - 7:18that's just kind of how
we do things around here. -
7:18 - 7:20You don't fight in the extra innings.
-
7:20 - 7:23Until maybe 2020,
-
7:23 - 7:25when one major candidate is already saying
-
7:26 - 7:29he may not accept the results
of the vote counting. -
7:29 - 7:31Curse you 2020.
-
7:31 - 7:34So what can happen instead?
-
7:34 - 7:35Instead of conceding,
-
7:35 - 7:40a losing candidate could launch
a ferocious fight to grab power anyway. -
7:40 - 7:42Or to hold onto power anyway.
-
7:42 - 7:43In the courts, yes.
-
7:43 - 7:47But also in the state houses,
electoral college, even in Congress. -
7:47 - 7:50They could file, for instance,
dozens of lawsuits -
7:50 - 7:55attempting to block the counting
of millions of, like, mail-in ballots, -
7:55 - 7:58saying they should all be thrown out,
they're all fraudulent. -
7:58 - 7:59Then, they could demand
-
7:59 - 8:02that the states refuse
to certify the election -
8:02 - 8:04because of all this alleged fraud,
-
8:04 - 8:07or interference from a foreign power.
-
8:07 - 8:12Or the loser's party could send
a rival slate of electors -
8:12 - 8:14to the electoral college or to Congress,
-
8:14 - 8:16and say, "We're the real electors,"
-
8:16 - 8:18and create a whole situation with that.
-
8:18 - 8:21Any of this stuff could create such a mess
-
8:21 - 8:23in the electoral college and the Congress,
-
8:23 - 8:28that the whole matter just winds up
in front of the House of Representatives -
8:28 - 8:30for the first time since the 1800s.
-
8:30 - 8:34Now, here's where it gets totally crazy.
-
8:34 - 8:40If the presidential election
winds up in the House of Representatives, -
8:40 - 8:43they don't have to pay any attention
at all to the popular vote -
8:43 - 8:45or the electoral vote.
-
8:45 - 8:48It's like the election never happened.
-
8:48 - 8:50And then it gets even crazier.
-
8:50 - 8:55The final tally in the House
is taken not by delegates -
8:55 - 8:56but by delegation.
-
8:56 - 8:58In other words,
-
8:58 - 9:01individual congresspeople
don't get to vote. -
9:01 - 9:03It's done by states.
-
9:03 - 9:05Now, get your head wrapped around this.
-
9:05 - 9:09In 2020, the majority of Americans
live in blue states, -
9:09 - 9:11but there are more red states.
-
9:11 - 9:14So there's a possibility
-
9:14 - 9:17that the Republicans
in the House of Representatives -
9:17 - 9:21could just anoint
their candidate to be president, -
9:21 - 9:23even without the popular vote,
-
9:24 - 9:26or a majority in electoral college.
-
9:26 - 9:27That could happen.
-
9:27 - 9:30Now some people would call that outcome
-
9:30 - 9:32a perfectly legal,
-
9:32 - 9:34perfectly constitutional coup
-
9:34 - 9:39against the very idea
of majority rule in the United States. -
9:39 - 9:42That is possible under our constitution,
-
9:42 - 9:43and it can happen this year.
-
9:43 - 9:45So what can you do about it?
-
9:45 - 9:46OK now, keep in mind,
-
9:46 - 9:48if the margin of the victory
is so massive, -
9:48 - 9:50it's truly massive,
-
9:50 - 9:53the losing candidate's political party
is going to walk away -
9:53 - 9:55and just let their leader go down.
-
9:55 - 9:58Nobody is going to risk
a constitutional crisis -
9:58 - 10:01to save somebody who is super unpopular.
-
10:02 - 10:04But if the race is close,
-
10:04 - 10:07all bets are off.
-
10:07 - 10:09And then the fight could continue
long past election night. -
10:09 - 10:12You could be, you know,
trying to deal impact -
10:12 - 10:15this whole other process
you never heard of before. -
10:15 - 10:18You're going to have to be lobbying,
-
10:18 - 10:20protesting, speaking out,
contacting lawmakers, -
10:20 - 10:23a whole other process
you've never done before. -
10:23 - 10:28So landing in this completely
unfamiliar scenario, -
10:28 - 10:29what can you do?
-
10:29 - 10:31How are we supposed to act?
-
10:31 - 10:34What are we supposed to do
in this situation? -
10:34 - 10:36There's basically
three things that matter. -
10:36 - 10:40Number one, get informed.
-
10:40 - 10:43A number of progressive organizations
are already working hard -
10:43 - 10:47to warn Americans about this
growing threat to our democracy. -
10:47 - 10:50Some organizations you could look into
and research for yourself: -
10:50 - 10:52choosedemocracy.us,
-
10:52 - 10:55electiontaskforce.org,
-
10:55 - 10:57protectdemocracy.org,
-
10:57 - 10:59mobilize.us,
-
10:59 - 11:01allamericans.org,
-
11:01 - 11:02civicalliance.com
-
11:02 - 11:06and the Fight Back table at demos.org.
-
11:06 - 11:07All these groups are working on this.
-
11:08 - 11:10Now, on the right,
if that's your cup of tea, -
11:10 - 11:13you could also check out
The Heritage Foundation -
11:13 - 11:15or the Government
Accountability Institute. -
11:15 - 11:17They are focused on voter fraud.
-
11:17 - 11:20But you've got to get informed,
no matter what side you're on. -
11:20 - 11:21Also, number two,
-
11:21 - 11:24you've got to get loud.
-
11:24 - 11:25You've got to get loud.
-
11:25 - 11:30Situation like this, these days,
everybody is a media channel. -
11:30 - 11:31You are the media.
-
11:31 - 11:33So use your own voice.
-
11:33 - 11:36And when you do, my advice:
-
11:36 - 11:40speak to universal American values,
not the partisan stuff, OK? -
11:40 - 11:45Speak to the American values
that every American should be down with, -
11:45 - 11:46no matter what party they're in.
-
11:46 - 11:49The idea that every voter counts
-
11:49 - 11:51and that every vote should be counted,
-
11:51 - 11:54that's an American value, period.
-
11:54 - 11:57The notion that the majority
should rule in America, -
11:57 - 11:59that's an American value.
-
11:59 - 12:02The idea that an incumbent president
-
12:02 - 12:05should concede honorably and graciously
-
12:05 - 12:08and ensure a peaceful transfer of power,
-
12:08 - 12:10rather than trying to use
every trick in the book -
12:10 - 12:12to hang on to power,
-
12:12 - 12:13that's an American value too.
-
12:13 - 12:15If you stick with those values,
-
12:15 - 12:17you're going to be heard
by a lot more people -
12:17 - 12:19and help bring the country together.
-
12:19 - 12:21And lastly, sorry folks,
voting is not enough, -
12:21 - 12:23You're going to have to get
active, get involved. -
12:23 - 12:26You could join and support
with your money. -
12:26 - 12:28Some existing organizations,
powerful groups, -
12:28 - 12:31like the Leadership Conference
on Civil Rights, -
12:31 - 12:32the ACLU,
-
12:32 - 12:35NAACP, Legal Defense Fund,
-
12:35 - 12:37Indivisible, ColorOfChange.org,
-
12:37 - 12:39these groups are going to be
fighting in the courts, -
12:39 - 12:41fighting in Congress,
-
12:41 - 12:43to try to make sure
that we have a fair outcome. -
12:43 - 12:46Those groups could use
your help and your donations. -
12:46 - 12:48But if it gets to the point
-
12:48 - 12:50where you feel
-
12:50 - 12:52that you have to take it to the streets,
-
12:52 - 12:54that you're going to have to go outside
-
12:54 - 12:57and demonstrate and march and protest,
-
12:57 - 13:00please do it peacefully.
-
13:00 - 13:03This is not just philosophy or morality.
-
13:03 - 13:05A lot of studies have shown
-
13:05 - 13:07that it's the peaceful protests
-
13:07 - 13:10that are more successful
at challenging these would-be dictators -
13:10 - 13:12and reversing coup attempts.
-
13:12 - 13:13It's the peaceful ones, why?
-
13:13 - 13:16Because when the protests turn violent,
-
13:16 - 13:20all that chaos and carnage
actually chases away supporters. -
13:20 - 13:22So rather than demonstrations
getting bigger, -
13:22 - 13:24and the protests getting bigger,
-
13:24 - 13:25they start to shrink.
-
13:25 - 13:28Then the government looks reasonable
when it cracks down. -
13:28 - 13:30So it's actually a lot better
-
13:30 - 13:33to follow the guidance
of the late great Gene Sharp. -
13:33 - 13:36Now he has written beautifully and well
-
13:36 - 13:41about how strategically
you can roll back a coup -
13:41 - 13:45just using very smart,
very disciplined, very nonviolent protest. -
13:45 - 13:49And a lot of his best ideas,
and people have been influenced by that, -
13:49 - 13:52are available in a new guidebook called,
-
13:52 - 13:54"Hold the Line."
-
13:54 - 13:55You can look it up,
-
13:55 - 13:58it's called "Hold the Line,
The Guide to Defending Democracy." -
13:58 - 14:02You can get that at holdthelineguide.com.
-
14:02 - 14:05And that can give you
a real good framework -
14:05 - 14:08to move forward in a smart, peaceful way
-
14:08 - 14:11if you feel that you've got
to take it to the streets. -
14:11 - 14:12Now look,
-
14:12 - 14:14I know all this stuff is overwhelming,
-
14:14 - 14:17and I've got to admit,
some of these steps may not be enough. -
14:17 - 14:19A truly rogue president
-
14:19 - 14:22could call on private armed militia
-
14:22 - 14:26to try to intimidate lawmakers
into keeping him or her in power. -
14:26 - 14:29Or they could just abuse
their emergency powers -
14:29 - 14:31and try to stay in office indefinitely.
-
14:31 - 14:33So we've got some real
problems in our system. -
14:33 - 14:35The best way to stop a coup
-
14:35 - 14:38is to update and strengthen
our democratic system -
14:38 - 14:39as soon as this election is over.
-
14:39 - 14:43Maybe we need to rethink,
reimagine or just get rid of -
14:43 - 14:48this whole electoral college,
extra inning thing in the first place. -
14:48 - 14:50I know for sure
-
14:50 - 14:53we've got to do a better job
of protecting voter rights, -
14:53 - 14:55of prosecuting voter intimidation
-
14:55 - 14:57and also making sure
we've got the technology -
14:57 - 15:01that nobody needs to be afraid
of voter fraud. -
15:01 - 15:03These are the steps
that we're going to have to take -
15:03 - 15:07to make sure that we have a democracy
and the democracy endures. -
15:07 - 15:09Because never forget this:
-
15:09 - 15:12in the long sweep of human history,
-
15:12 - 15:14a democratic republic
-
15:14 - 15:17is the rarest form of government on earth.
-
15:17 - 15:20Democracies are fragile.
-
15:20 - 15:23Democracies can fail.
-
15:23 - 15:27And what citizens do or fail to do
in a moment of crisis -
15:27 - 15:30can determine the final fate
-
15:30 - 15:33of government of, by and for the people.
-
15:33 - 15:36So let's do our best, vote, but this time,
-
15:36 - 15:38we've got to stay vigilant and active,
-
15:38 - 15:40even after the ballots have been counted.
-
15:40 - 15:42We've got to stay active
all the way through -
15:42 - 15:44to inauguration day.
-
15:44 - 15:45But I want to say to you,
-
15:46 - 15:50I will support the winner
of a free and fair election -
15:50 - 15:52no matter which candidate wins,
-
15:52 - 15:55and I will oppose any so-called winner
-
15:55 - 15:59who prevails by twisting the process
beyond recognition. -
15:59 - 16:04Because any American should be willing
to concede an election, -
16:04 - 16:06but no American should concede
-
16:06 - 16:10the core principles of democracy itself.
-
16:10 - 16:12Thank you.
- Title:
- What if a US presidential candidate refuses to concede after an election?
- Speaker:
- Van Jones
- Description:
-
If the 2020 US presidential election is close, the race could drag on in the courts and halls of Congress long after ballots are cast, says lawyer and political commentator Van Jones. Explaining why the customary concession speech is one of the most important safeguards for democracy, Jones exposes shocking legal loopholes that could enable a candidate to grab power even if they lose both the popular vote and the electoral college -- and shares what ordinary citizens can do if there's no peaceful transfer of power.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 16:25
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