Nature-based solutions in the fight against climate change | Thomas Crowther | TEDxLausanne
-
0:12 - 0:13Life ...
-
0:13 - 0:16it's all about embracing the challenge.
-
0:16 - 0:19Everyday, our lab brings together
-
0:19 - 0:22some of the world's leading
environmental scientists, -
0:22 - 0:23bringing together all that brain power
-
0:23 - 0:27to desperately try to figure out
-
0:27 - 0:29how to get this ball
round a group of people -
0:29 - 0:30without using our hands.
-
0:30 - 0:32It's so good; you hold
a ball and a frisbee, -
0:32 - 0:33you throw the ball in the air,
-
0:33 - 0:35throw the frisbee to the next person
-
0:35 - 0:37who catches the frisbee
and then the ball -
0:37 - 0:39without ever touching their hands.
-
0:40 - 0:43This challenge, frisball,
is unbelievably addictive -
0:43 - 0:47for the very simple reason
that it's really, really hard. -
0:47 - 0:49The failures can be catastrophic.
-
0:51 - 0:54But when you get lost in that game
and it just takes you, -
0:55 - 0:57it's unbelievable how those
failures just pale -
0:57 - 1:00in comparison to the true
glory of success. -
1:01 - 1:03(Laughter)
-
1:03 - 1:05I always thought
this obsession with games -
1:05 - 1:07is why I struggled in the university.
-
1:07 - 1:10When I was kicked out of class
at the end of my first year, -
1:10 - 1:11I thought it was the end of my degree.
-
1:11 - 1:14300 people, I had to
walk out in front of. -
1:14 - 1:15It was devastating,
-
1:15 - 1:17but the professor
took me aside and asked me, -
1:17 - 1:22"Why bother? Why bother with ecology
if you're not even going to try?" -
1:22 - 1:25To which I explained, "I've always
been obsessed with biodiversity. -
1:25 - 1:29How life arose on this planet
remains the greatest mystery, -
1:29 - 1:31let alone how it diversified
across the globe. -
1:31 - 1:33But I simply cannot keep up.
-
1:33 - 1:36It's really hard to stay motivated
when you can't keep up, -
1:36 - 1:38and on top of that, I'm dyslexic,
-
1:38 - 1:41and so I failed to keep up
with the boring reading, -
1:41 - 1:44and, instead, preferred
to play games with my friends." -
1:44 - 1:47And he gave me
the simplest bit of advice ever. -
1:47 - 1:53He just said, "If you truly enjoy it,
why not make ecology your next game?" -
1:54 - 1:57And I know it sounds so simple,
but it had the most profound impact on me. -
1:57 - 2:01He said, "You don't need to try harder,
you certainly don't need to be smarter, -
2:01 - 2:03but if you embrace the challenge,
-
2:03 - 2:05not only are you
way more likely to succeed, -
2:05 - 2:06but even if you don't,
-
2:06 - 2:09Who actually cares? -
you've been having a good time, -
2:09 - 2:11and that's the point of all this
in the long run anyway." -
2:11 - 2:14Now, that simple advice
had the most profound impact on me, -
2:14 - 2:17and eight years later,
I'm still studying biodiversity, -
2:17 - 2:20this time, at a global scale.
-
2:20 - 2:23And in fact, I'm studying
one of the greatest threats -
2:23 - 2:26facing biodiversity of all time
in climate change, -
2:26 - 2:28this depressing topic
-
2:28 - 2:32that every single person in this room
knows plenty about, -
2:32 - 2:35so don't worry, I won't bog you down
with the depressing details. -
2:35 - 2:40We all know how threatening
it is to us and our future generations, -
2:40 - 2:45but the real challenge is figuring out
how that we can get engaged, -
2:45 - 2:47how can we make tangible impact
-
2:47 - 2:50to slow the rate
of this devastating threat. -
2:51 - 2:53Because the atmosphere
that we're trying to protect -
2:53 - 2:55is incredibly thin and vulnerable -
-
2:56 - 2:59it's like analogous to the width
of the rubber on a balloon. -
2:59 - 3:04And every year, we emit 10 gigatons
of carbon into that space. -
3:04 - 3:06I know a gigaton is a weird number,
-
3:06 - 3:09but essentially, it's a billion
tons of carbon. -
3:09 - 3:15So 10 gigatons is like
27,000 Empire State Buildings. -
3:15 - 3:19And some of it goes into the land,
and some of it goes into the oceans, -
3:19 - 3:21but a large chunk of it
remains in the atmosphere, -
3:21 - 3:24and it's building up year on, year out,
-
3:24 - 3:29to the extent that we've increased
the burden by about 300 gigatons -
3:29 - 3:31since the start
of the Industrial Revolution. -
3:32 - 3:34Now, I'm a scientist, so I love numbers,
-
3:34 - 3:36and I'm going to throw
big nonsense numbers at you, -
3:36 - 3:39but if I could get you to remember
at least one number, -
3:39 - 3:42it's that 300 gigatons because that -
-
3:42 - 3:44that's the scale of the problem
we need to address. -
3:45 - 3:49So of course, we urgently need
technological solutions -
3:49 - 3:51to stop those 10 gigatons every year.
-
3:51 - 3:53We need to prevent emissions,
-
3:53 - 3:57but if we want to capture
the 300 gigatons that already exist, -
3:57 - 4:00we're going to need
an immensely powerful system, -
4:00 - 4:03and the most powerful system
we've got to date is this: -
4:04 - 4:05the natural system.
-
4:06 - 4:09This is a beautiful NASA simulation
of the carbon cycle, -
4:09 - 4:11showing high concentrations
of carbon dioxide, -
4:11 - 4:14indicated by red,
at the beginning of the year, -
4:14 - 4:17but as we kick on into spring,
and then summer, -
4:17 - 4:19we'll see these concentrations fade,
-
4:19 - 4:21and that's caused
by one really simple thing: -
4:22 - 4:25it's just the emergence
of leaves on the trees. -
4:26 - 4:30This simple ecological process
transforms the carbon cycle every year, -
4:31 - 4:33and it's one of the several
massive ecological fluxes -
4:33 - 4:35that entirely balance one another out.
-
4:36 - 4:38Given the massive scale of this system,
-
4:38 - 4:39managing it effectively
-
4:39 - 4:43has to be one of our brightest options
in the fight against climate change. -
4:44 - 4:46But it's also the nonsense one,
-
4:46 - 4:47we've all heard it before,
-
4:47 - 4:50the happy-clappy solution,
"Plant a tree, save the world," -
4:50 - 4:51we've all heard it before,
-
4:51 - 4:54but it's clearly not worked,
because otherwise we'd be fine. -
4:55 - 4:56But the real reason is
-
4:56 - 4:58we've not been able to get engaged.
-
4:59 - 5:01Because it's not a tangible
and scientific solution, -
5:01 - 5:03for the very simple fact
-
5:03 - 5:06that we have no idea
what's physically possible. -
5:06 - 5:08Until we know what we can achieve,
-
5:08 - 5:12who's going to waste their time
and energy restoring ecosystems -
5:12 - 5:14if you don't know
what the impact will be. -
5:14 - 5:16If we look at the top
climate change solutions - -
5:16 - 5:19Project Drawdown is a brilliant
organization listing them - -
5:19 - 5:20at the top of the list,
-
5:20 - 5:23with the potential to save 24 gigatons,
-
5:23 - 5:25is effective refrigeration management.
-
5:25 - 5:28But if you look down the list
for global ecosystem management, -
5:28 - 5:29you won't even find it
-
5:29 - 5:33because ecosystems, we have
no idea of their global potential. -
5:33 - 5:37So they're broken up into smaller parts
and listed far below the top solutions. -
5:37 - 5:41Again, who of us is going to spend
our valuable time and energy in this, -
5:41 - 5:44unless we know what
we can actually achieve. -
5:45 - 5:47Well, the real challenge
is that the Earth's massive. -
5:47 - 5:50It's really difficult to get a handle
on that global information. -
5:50 - 5:54So we've used satellites very well
for the last few decades, -
5:54 - 5:56which have great global coverage,
-
5:56 - 5:58but they can't see
below the canopy surface. -
5:59 - 6:03So until recently, we thought there
was about 400 billion trees on the planet. -
6:03 - 6:06And that was the basis
of the UN's billion tree campaign: -
6:06 - 6:08to plant a billion trees
to save the world. -
6:09 - 6:12But we knew we needed
a new generation of model, -
6:12 - 6:15a model built from millions of locations
-
6:15 - 6:18where people have stood
on the ground counting trees -
6:18 - 6:21and estimating how big those trees are
-
6:21 - 6:23and also which species they are.
-
6:23 - 6:25And once you've got all that information,
-
6:25 - 6:27you've got insights
into the forest's structure, -
6:27 - 6:30and by pairing all those millions
of data points together, -
6:30 - 6:33using machine learning
and artificial intelligence, -
6:33 - 6:38we can now start to fill in the gaps,
and see the patterns in tree density, -
6:38 - 6:40and how they vary across
gradients of temperature -
6:40 - 6:43and moisture and soil characteristics
-
6:43 - 6:48to generate the first quantitative
understanding of global tree density, -
6:48 - 6:53revealing, quite simply, that there
are over 3 trillion trees on our planet. -
6:53 - 6:55Again, I realize it's hard
to understand what a trillion is, -
6:55 - 6:58but essentially, it's more
than we previously thought, -
6:58 - 7:00and that simple piece of information
-
7:00 - 7:03was enough to change
the billion tree campaign -
7:03 - 7:05into the trillion tree campaign.
-
7:05 - 7:08So now we're restoring a trillion trees,
and it's having great impact. -
7:09 - 7:11Because we know the size of those trees,
-
7:11 - 7:14we also know that they store
about 450 gigatons of carbon. -
7:14 - 7:16That's the basis we're working with.
-
7:16 - 7:19But these models don't just tell us
where trees are now. -
7:19 - 7:22By characterizing the environment
that can support trees, -
7:22 - 7:25they also help us to see
where trees can exist on the planet, -
7:25 - 7:29showing that there's room
for vastly more than we currently have. -
7:30 - 7:33But obviously, much of this land
is currently covered by forests, -
7:33 - 7:37and a large proportion of it, we need
for urban land and agricultural land -
7:37 - 7:39that we need to support
a growing human population. -
7:40 - 7:42But when we remove those lands,
-
7:42 - 7:44we are left with something incredible.
-
7:45 - 7:49These are the 0.9 billion hectares
of degraded lands, -
7:50 - 7:52places where trees could naturally exist,
-
7:52 - 7:55but they don't, even though
we're not using them extensively. -
7:56 - 7:59If we were to restore ecosystems
across all of those lands, -
7:59 - 8:02there would be an additional
trillion trees in that area, -
8:02 - 8:09and they would store
a staggering 205 gigatons of carbon. -
8:09 - 8:12Now again, there's a lot
of uncertainty in that number - -
8:12 - 8:14they could be slightly higher or lower -
-
8:14 - 8:15but the scale of this,
-
8:15 - 8:19when you compare it
to the 300 gigatons I mentioned earlier, -
8:19 - 8:20we can all see
-
8:20 - 8:25that there is a vastly and immensely
powerful carbon drawdown solution -
8:25 - 8:26in the world's forests.
-
8:26 - 8:29Obviously, it would take
over a hundred years -
8:29 - 8:30to accumulate all of that carbon,
-
8:30 - 8:32but as soon as those
trees are in the ground, -
8:32 - 8:35not only are they sucking up carbon,
they're also producing clouds, -
8:35 - 8:38and those clouds reflect
a lot of the sun's energy away, -
8:38 - 8:40cooling the planet
with an immediate effect. -
8:42 - 8:45So when we announced this information
less than two months ago, -
8:45 - 8:49something just clicked,
and it went absolutely viral. -
8:49 - 8:51There was not an international
media organization -
8:51 - 8:53that didn't cover this extensively.
-
8:53 - 8:58It was like the public finally
just saw an option for us to get engaged, -
8:58 - 9:00and it was followed
by an unbelievable spike -
9:00 - 9:03in funding for restoration projects.
-
9:03 - 9:06And we saw projects
starting up all over the world, -
9:06 - 9:10and these are just the few
that our lab is directly connected to. -
9:10 - 9:12We're aware of thousands of others
-
9:12 - 9:16that are emerging to restore
ecosystems to capture carbon. -
9:16 - 9:20But it also introduced us
to some of the wonders of social media, -
9:20 - 9:23which was a terrifying insight.
-
9:23 - 9:25We had an absolute insanity of messages,
-
9:25 - 9:28but when you sift through those messages,
-
9:28 - 9:31there are some really important
and valuable themes. -
9:31 - 9:34The first criticism,
-
9:34 - 9:35"This is so stupid.
-
9:35 - 9:37We can't just plant trees everywhere,
we need emissions cuts." -
9:37 - 9:40While I don't entirely love
the introduction to it, -
9:40 - 9:43this is absolutely correct.
-
9:43 - 9:44I can't argue with that.
-
9:44 - 9:46Of course, everybody must know
-
9:46 - 9:50that we need technological
and system-level changes -
9:50 - 9:52to prevent emissions.
-
9:52 - 9:57But that has to be done in combination
with powerful carbon drawdown. -
9:57 - 10:01Climate change is way too big
for us to be squabbling over solutions - -
10:01 - 10:04we need all of them right now.
-
10:04 - 10:05The second criticism,
-
10:05 - 10:07"No! We need to conserve
existing forests." -
10:08 - 10:12Once again, it's very hard to disagree
because this is absolutely correct! -
10:12 - 10:15Of course, increasing
the global forest cover -
10:15 - 10:16wouldn't make any sense
-
10:16 - 10:20if we just gained new forests
at the expense of the old ones. -
10:20 - 10:24Preserving those existing forests
is central to our entire goal. -
10:24 - 10:27Of course, it's absolutely critical,
-
10:27 - 10:29so they must be done in combination.
-
10:29 - 10:32And the third criticism -
you can see a trend now - -
10:33 - 10:36is we need to preserve and restore
natural grasslands and savannas, -
10:36 - 10:38and again, for fear of repeating myself,
-
10:38 - 10:40this is abundantly correct.
-
10:40 - 10:42These ecosystems are immensely important,
-
10:42 - 10:46and that was part of the reason
for us doing the study in the first place, -
10:46 - 10:49so that we could identify where trees
should go and where they shouldn't. -
10:49 - 10:51Because those ecosystems
are really key as well. -
10:51 - 10:56They store huge amounts of biodiversity,
and their carbon is amazing too, -
10:56 - 10:58but it's not stored in the vegetation.
-
10:58 - 11:01It's actually stored
in the soil below our feet. -
11:02 - 11:05So we've been building
a new generation of models now. -
11:05 - 11:08Instead of basing them
on observations of trees, -
11:08 - 11:13they're based on millions of soil samples,
collected all across the globe. -
11:13 - 11:17And again, using the same artificial
intelligence and machine learning, -
11:17 - 11:19we can start to see the patterns,
-
11:19 - 11:23revealing that there
is over 1,500 gigatons of carbon -
11:23 - 11:25in the soil below our feet,
-
11:25 - 11:28with the majority of it
existing in the high latitude areas, -
11:28 - 11:31where cold conditions
trap up carbon in the soil. -
11:31 - 11:32And the amazing thing
-
11:32 - 11:35is that if we restored
those soils across the globe, -
11:35 - 11:40we could capture
another 116 gigatons of carbon. -
11:41 - 11:45That's the second insanely powerful
carbon drawdown solution -
11:45 - 11:47that I've introduced to you,
-
11:47 - 11:49and that's just in the soil
below our feet. -
11:49 - 11:51And this expands across all ecosystems.
-
11:51 - 11:52Where forests are now,
-
11:52 - 11:56just conserving and preserving them
could capture 30% of that. -
11:56 - 11:59But grasslands and shrublands
cover an even larger expanse, -
12:00 - 12:03and they could capture
a staggering 41% of that potential -
12:03 - 12:05if we just restore them effectively.
-
12:05 - 12:07And the nice thing about them
-
12:07 - 12:10is that they don't come at the expense
of any other land use type. -
12:11 - 12:13So you could have your agriculture
-
12:13 - 12:17at the same time as preserving
and capturing more and more carbon. -
12:18 - 12:21And actually, the most efficient
of all those ecosystems -
12:22 - 12:24are the wetlands and peatlands
-
12:24 - 12:27which would cover
less than 5% of the Earth's surface -
12:27 - 12:29and could capture
about 30% of that amount. -
12:30 - 12:34So when all in combination,
we can see that these ecosystems -
12:34 - 12:38have an overwhelming potential
to capture this 300 gigatons. -
12:39 - 12:43This powerful carbon drawdown solution
is not just immense, -
12:43 - 12:46but it's also one that can engage
every single one of us -
12:47 - 12:51and must be done in combination
with cuts to greenhouse gas emissions. -
12:52 - 12:55But of course, they have to be done
ecologically responsibly. -
12:55 - 12:58Too many times, restoration projects fail
-
12:58 - 13:00because trees are restored
in the wrong soils -
13:00 - 13:01or in ecosystems
-
13:01 - 13:04without a microbial community
that can support them. -
13:04 - 13:07So we spend all of our time
and energy generating maps, -
13:07 - 13:11maps that can show land managers
how to manage those ecosystems right, -
13:11 - 13:14so they can zoom
into their area of interest -
13:14 - 13:18and say not only how many trees go there
or which species of trees should go there, -
13:18 - 13:22but you can even see what
the soil microbial community is like, -
13:22 - 13:23to see if they support trees.
-
13:24 - 13:25And you can even calculate
-
13:25 - 13:28where the forests would have
a warming or a cooling impact -
13:28 - 13:29in different parts of the globe
-
13:29 - 13:33to really understand the ecological
consequences of those actions. -
13:34 - 13:36And even more importantly than that
-
13:36 - 13:39is that these projects
have to be socially responsible. -
13:40 - 13:44Too many times, restoration projects
come and they buy up an area of land, -
13:44 - 13:46excluding people from that land.
-
13:46 - 13:47Now that land
-
13:47 - 13:49is those people's livelihoods.
-
13:49 - 13:53Not only is that socially irresponsible,
but it's also unsustainable -
13:53 - 13:56because those people will come back
and cut down that forest -
13:56 - 13:58and use it for their
livelihoods subsequently. -
13:59 - 14:03Restoration has to be done
in combination with local communities, -
14:04 - 14:07so all funding coming
towards restoration projects -
14:07 - 14:08can be funneled through that community,
-
14:08 - 14:11so they become connected to that project.
-
14:12 - 14:16On top of that, they can benefit
from the thousands of ecosystem services -
14:16 - 14:19like food and medicine,
and clean air and water -
14:19 - 14:24that bring huge socioeconomic
benefits when done correctly. -
14:24 - 14:28All of those projects, those little dots
that I showed you earlier, are doing this, -
14:28 - 14:31working in combination
with the local communities -
14:31 - 14:33to restore ecosystems around the world,
-
14:33 - 14:37and they're having incredible
social and economic consequences. -
14:37 - 14:42And the best of them are doing so
for as little as thirty cents a tree. -
14:42 - 14:47And so this means, if we were
to restore our one trillion trees, -
14:47 - 14:49if we were to maximize efficiency,
-
14:49 - 14:53we could do so for as little
as 300 billion dollars. -
14:53 - 14:55That is nothing
-
14:55 - 14:58compared to the trillions of dollars
we spend every year -
14:58 - 15:00as a result of climate change.
-
15:00 - 15:03So now we genuinely
do have a climate solution -
15:03 - 15:08that can engage every single one of us
through simple and tangible actions -
15:08 - 15:09that have a positive impact,
-
15:09 - 15:11either by restoring
ecosystems yourselves, -
15:11 - 15:15and you can look at the maps
to see exactly where and how, -
15:15 - 15:16or simply donate.
-
15:17 - 15:19Click on one these dots to donate
-
15:19 - 15:21to one of the incredible
restoration projects -
15:21 - 15:23that are doing unbelievable
work on our behalf, -
15:23 - 15:26or finally, just invest your money wisely.
-
15:26 - 15:29Whether you're spending it
or investing it, -
15:29 - 15:33focus on the organizations
that have a positive environmental impact, -
15:33 - 15:36and we can have tangible
impact on climate change. -
15:38 - 15:40There's 8 billion of us on this planet.
-
15:40 - 15:45That gives us an unprecedented
power for global action, -
15:46 - 15:47but until now,
-
15:47 - 15:50climate action has always
been about giving up the things we love, -
15:50 - 15:53and while those commitments
are incredibly important -
15:53 - 15:55for cutting greenhouse gas emissions,
-
15:56 - 16:00we now also have positive
actions that we can take, -
16:00 - 16:03which make us feel good,
and get us involved in the fight. -
16:03 - 16:05Which brings me
to the final criticism, -
16:05 - 16:08"This all sounds fine,
but it's just naive. -
16:08 - 16:10We'll never restore the entire globe."
-
16:10 - 16:16Now this criticism may also be correct,
but it's also entirely irrelevant. -
16:17 - 16:21Because this thinking
doesn't help anything. -
16:21 - 16:22Ultimately,
-
16:22 - 16:25this is just an excuse to do nothing,
-
16:25 - 16:28"If we can't achieve 100%,
ah, let's not bother." -
16:28 - 16:31This is the kind of thinking
that got us in this place. -
16:31 - 16:34If we achieve even 5% of our goals,
-
16:34 - 16:38the impacts for biodiversity
and climate change would be incredible, -
16:38 - 16:41and I can promise you,
we're going to exceed those efforts -
16:41 - 16:44with the thousands of people
restoring ecosystems around the world. -
16:45 - 16:48I just hope the people saying,
"It can't be done" -
16:48 - 16:51don't interrupt the incredible people
that are already doing it. -
16:53 - 16:57Overcoming this negative thinking,
this depression around climate change, -
16:57 - 17:02I think is one of our greatest remaining
challenges to get us all engaged. -
17:02 - 17:04And to do this, I draw on the words
-
17:04 - 17:07of that brilliant supervisor,
Dr. Hefin Jones, -
17:07 - 17:09who said, "Just embrace the challenge.
-
17:09 - 17:11Not only are we more likely to succeed,
-
17:11 - 17:14but we'll all literally
be enjoying the process." -
17:14 - 17:18We may be the first society
facing the real threat of climate change, -
17:18 - 17:21but that necessarily means
we're the first society -
17:21 - 17:24that has a chance
to save the world against it. -
17:25 - 17:26Thank you very much.
-
17:26 - 17:29(Applause)
- Title:
- Nature-based solutions in the fight against climate change | Thomas Crowther | TEDxLausanne
- Description:
-
Thomas Crowther and his team of 25 researchers are looking at ways to digitally explore the biosphere and to reveal the true potential of nature-based solutions in the fight against climate change and biodiversity loss. Advances in data collection and artificial intelligence are revealing more truths about our environment and the seriousness of climate change.
While most labs in the world focus on one field of research, Thomas Crowther firmly believes that we need to take a holistic approach to understand the ecological processes that influence climate change, predict its progression with high accuracy, and develop nature-based solutions to address it. Crowther Lab research is helping organizations understand the true value of nature, make more informed decisions, and start implementing nature-based solutions to climate change and biodiversity loss.
Thomas Crowther is a professor of Global Ecosystem Ecology at ETH Zurich and founder of the Crowther Lab. Specializing in ecosystem ecology, he is also the chief scientific adviser to the UN’s Trillion Tree Campaign.
This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at https://www.ted.com/tedx
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDxTalks
- Duration:
- 17:33