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Maybe the fates got clumsy.
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Maybe Poseidon had one of his angry days.
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However it happened, the
underworld is overcrowded,
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and Zeus has ordered Hades
to let some spirits out.
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Hades arranges all the souls of the
dead in a line before Cerberus.
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When one of his three heads bites
down on the soul in front of it,
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they’ll get returned to the
land of the living.
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Anyone to the left must get out of
line and stay in Hades forever.
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And everyone else shuffles forward,
at which point Cerberus will feed again.
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Each of the dog’s heads has an equal
chance of being the one to bite each time,
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and no two ever bite simultaneously.
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Unfortunately, Hades’ minions forgot
to tell you what was happening,
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and by the time you show up there are
only 99 souls left in line.
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Hades looks furious and drawing attention
to yourself won’t end well.
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But suddenly, time freezes, and Hermes
steps out of the shadows.
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He tells you he can instantly put you into
the line,
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and no one will realize what happened.
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But he’ll only grant his grace to someone
clever enough
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to take full advantage of it.
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Choose the best place in line and
he’ll give you the spot.
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Choose wrong, and he’ll leave you to rot.
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Which spot should you pick?
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It’s possible to calculate the exact
probability of going free
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in all 100 spots.
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But there’s a much simpler path to
the solution
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that requires surprisingly
little calculation.
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Imagine being anywhere in line.
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Way up at the front, one of the three
heads will pick someone at random,
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and you’ll move forward 1, 2, or 3 spaces.
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Since each is equally likely,
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your chance of survival from wherever
you started
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is the average of the chances from
each of the three spaces in front of you.
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And this is where you can
find a huge shortcut.
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Averages must be on or between the
extremes of what you’re averaging––
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they can never be higher than the
highest value or lower than the lowest.
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So whatever your chances of survival
are where you start,
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one of the three places in front
of you is at least as good,
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and probably better.
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This observation is incredibly powerful.
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It means that wherever you are in line,
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it’d be wise to trade your place for one
of the three spots in front of you.
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Let’s ignore which for now and think of
them as a trio––
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this trio’s maximum value is better than
this trio’s, and so on.
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Keep going and you’ll reach the front...
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These three spots must contain the
extreme values––
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the best and worst probabilities––
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for the entire line. In other words,
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they’re all we need to consider.
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Place 1 is bad.
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Head one would save you, and the other
two doom you forever.
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That’s just a 1 in 3 chance to escape.
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Place 2 is better: head two is great,
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head 3 is bad, and head 1 is ok
in that it gives you another chance.
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But place 3 is best, because head
3 saves you
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while heads 1 and 2 both
give you extra chances.
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If you did want to consider the exact
probabilities,
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the odds of surviving in place 3 are 16
out of 27, or close to 60%.
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The spots later in line tend to be very
close to having a 50% chance of survival.
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Why 50%?
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Because every time Cerberus sends
one soul up to be reborn,
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he leaves 0, 1, or 2 souls
in the underworld.
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That averages out to one person
staying for each one who gets freed.
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But you can beat those odds handily
with what you now know.
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Hermes has places to be, and so do you.
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He rewards your insight by sneaking
you into the third spot.
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And from there it’ll be just a short
wait to learn your ultimate fate.