More Precise UN Estimates of the Future World Population - Rosling's Factpod #3

UN experts are more certain that we will be about 11 Billion in the year 2100

Data sources:
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2014/09/17/science.1257469.abstract

http://esa.un.org/unpd/ppp/Figures-Output/Population/PPP_Total-Population.htm

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Help us caption & translate this video!

http://amara.org/v/FOJU/

Hi. I'm Professor Hans Rosling.

I'm very interested
in the world population,

therefore I read
everything that comes out

of United Nations Population Division.

This week they published a paper

about the uncertainty of their estimate

of the future world population.

This is a graph from that paper.

It shows the total world population
in billions,

from 2 billions,
10 billions, or even more.

Here are the years, starting 1950

(with less than 3 billion),

and their estimate of past population

went up to 7.2 billions today, 2014.

Now, the projection into the future.

Starting on 7.2 billion today, going fast,

and then slowing, slowing, slowing down,

and almost flat here

at almost 11 billion
by the end of the century.

The red line has been published before.

The new with this study

is that they have improved the estimate

of the uncertainty.

They used to just assume here a line

for half a child more per woman,

half a child less per woman.

Now they tell us
with 80 percent probability

somewhere between these two lines,

with 95 percent probability

between these two lines.

So somewhere between
9 billion and 13 billion,

most probably 11 billion,

that's the world population
we have to plan for.