Go ahead, dream about the future
-
0:01 - 0:03Every science fiction writer
-
0:03 - 0:08has a story about a time
when the future arrived too soon. -
0:09 - 0:11I have a lot of those stories.
-
0:11 - 0:13Like, OK, for example:
-
0:13 - 0:17years ago, I was writing a story
where the government -
0:17 - 0:20starts using drones to kill people.
-
0:21 - 0:25I thought that this was
a really intense, futuristic idea, -
0:25 - 0:28but by the time the story was published,
-
0:29 - 0:32the government was already
using drones to kill people. -
0:32 - 0:35Our world is changing so fast,
-
0:35 - 0:38and there's a kind
of accelerating feedback loop -
0:38 - 0:42where technological change
and social change feed on each other. -
0:42 - 0:45When I was a kid in the 1980s,
-
0:45 - 0:48we knew what the future
was going to look like. -
0:48 - 0:53It was going to be some version
of "Judge Dredd" or "Blade Runner." -
0:53 - 0:58It was going to be neon megacities
and flying vehicles. -
0:58 - 1:01But now, nobody knows
what the world is going to look like -
1:01 - 1:03even in just a couple years,
-
1:03 - 1:08and there are so many scary apparitions
lurking on the horizon. -
1:08 - 1:12From climate catastrophe
to authoritarianism, -
1:12 - 1:15everybody is obsessed with apocalypses,
-
1:15 - 1:19even though the world ends
all the time, and we keep going. -
1:20 - 1:24Don't be afraid to think about the future,
to dream about the future, -
1:24 - 1:26to write about the future.
-
1:26 - 1:30I've found it really liberating
and fun to do that. -
1:30 - 1:32It's a way of vaccinating yourself
-
1:32 - 1:36against the worst possible case
of future shock. -
1:36 - 1:38It's also a source of empowerment,
-
1:38 - 1:43because you cannot prepare for something
that you haven't already visualized. -
1:43 - 1:45But there's something
that you need to know. -
1:46 - 1:49You don't predict the future;
-
1:49 - 1:52you imagine the future.
-
1:52 - 1:54So as a science fiction writer
-
1:54 - 1:59whose stories often take place
years or even centuries from now, -
1:59 - 2:03I've found that people are really hungry
for visions of the future -
2:03 - 2:06that are both colorful and lived in,
-
2:06 - 2:10but I found that research on its own
is not enough to get me there. -
2:10 - 2:14Instead, I use a mixture
of active dreaming -
2:14 - 2:18and awareness of cutting-edge trends
in science and technology -
2:18 - 2:21and also insight into human history.
-
2:21 - 2:23I think a lot about what I know
of human nature -
2:23 - 2:28and the way that people have responded
in the past to huge changes -
2:28 - 2:30and upheavals and transformations.
-
2:30 - 2:34And I pair that with
an attention to detail, -
2:34 - 2:38because the details are where we live.
-
2:38 - 2:42We tell the story of our world
through the tools we create -
2:42 - 2:44and the spaces that we live in.
-
2:44 - 2:47And at this point, it's helpful
to know a couple of terms -
2:47 - 2:51that science fiction writers
use all of the time: -
2:51 - 2:55"future history"
and "second-order effects." -
2:56 - 2:59Now, future history is basically
just what it sounds like. -
2:59 - 3:02It is a chronology of things
that haven't happened yet, -
3:02 - 3:05like Robert A. Heinlein's
famous story cycle, -
3:05 - 3:08which came with a detailed chart
of upcoming events -
3:08 - 3:11going up into the year 2100.
-
3:11 - 3:13Or, for my most recent novel,
-
3:13 - 3:15I came up with a really
complicated time line -
3:15 - 3:19that goes all the way to the 33rd century
-
3:19 - 3:22and ends with people
living on another planet. -
3:23 - 3:28Meanwhile, a second-order effect
is basically the kind of thing -
3:28 - 3:34that happens after the consequences
of a new technology or a huge change. -
3:34 - 3:39There's a saying often attributed
to writer and editor Frederik Pohl -
3:39 - 3:41that "A good science fiction story
-
3:41 - 3:44should predict not just
the invention of the automobile, -
3:44 - 3:47but also the traffic jam."
-
3:48 - 3:49And speaking of traffic jams,
-
3:49 - 3:54I spent a lot of time
trying to picture the city of the future. -
3:55 - 3:57What's it like? What's it made of?
-
3:57 - 3:58Who's it for?
-
3:58 - 4:03I try to picture a green city
with vertical farms -
4:03 - 4:08and structures that are partially
grown rather than built -
4:08 - 4:10and walkways instead of streets,
-
4:10 - 4:14because nobody gets around
by car anymore -- -
4:14 - 4:18a city that lives and breathes.
-
4:18 - 4:22And, you know, I kind of start
by daydreaming the wildest stuff -
4:22 - 4:24that I can possibly come up with,
-
4:24 - 4:27and then I go back into research mode,
-
4:27 - 4:29and I try to make it as plausible as I can
-
4:29 - 4:34by looking at a mixture
of urban futurism, design porn -
4:34 - 4:37and technological speculation.
-
4:37 - 4:41And then I go back, and I try to imagine
what it would actually be like -
4:41 - 4:44to be inside that city.
-
4:44 - 4:48So my process kind of begins
and ends with imagination, -
4:48 - 4:53and it's like my imagination
is two pieces of bread -
4:53 - 4:54in a research sandwich.
-
4:56 - 4:59So as a storyteller, first and foremost,
-
4:59 - 5:03I try to live in the world
through the eyes of my characters -
5:03 - 5:06and try to see how they navigate
their own personal challenges -
5:06 - 5:09in the context of the space
that I've created. -
5:09 - 5:12What do they smell? What do they touch?
-
5:12 - 5:16What's it like to fall in love
inside a smart city? -
5:16 - 5:18What do you see when you
look out your window, -
5:18 - 5:21and does it depend on how the window's
software interacts with your mood? -
5:21 - 5:25And finally, I ask myself
how a future brilliant city -
5:25 - 5:31would ensure that nobody is homeless
and nobody slips through the cracks. -
5:31 - 5:33And here's where
future history comes in handy, -
5:33 - 5:37because cities don't just spring up
overnight like weeds. -
5:37 - 5:40They arise and transform.
-
5:40 - 5:46They bear the scars and ornaments
of wars, migrations, -
5:46 - 5:48economic booms, cultural awakenings.
-
5:48 - 5:51A future city should have monuments, yeah,
-
5:51 - 5:55but it should also have layers
of past architecture, -
5:55 - 5:56repurposed buildings
-
5:56 - 6:00and all of the signs of how
we got to this place. -
6:00 - 6:03And then there's second-order effects,
-
6:03 - 6:07like how do things go wrong -- or right --
-
6:07 - 6:09in a way that nobody ever anticipated?
-
6:09 - 6:13Like, if the walls of your apartment
are made out of a kind of fungus -
6:13 - 6:18that can regrow itself
to repair any damage, -
6:18 - 6:21what if people start eating the walls?
-
6:21 - 6:22(Laughter)
-
6:22 - 6:23Speaking of eating:
-
6:23 - 6:27What kind of sewer system
does the city of the future have? -
6:27 - 6:30It's a trick question.
There are no sewers. -
6:30 - 6:33There's something incredibly bizarre
about the current system we have -
6:33 - 6:35in the United States,
-
6:35 - 6:38where your waste
gets flushed into a tunnel -
6:38 - 6:42to be mixed with rainwater
and often dumped into the ocean. -
6:42 - 6:45Not to mention toilet paper.
-
6:46 - 6:48A bunch of techies, led by Bill Gates,
-
6:48 - 6:51are trying to reinvent
the toilet right now, -
6:51 - 6:53and it's possible that
the toilet of the future -
6:53 - 6:57could appear incredibly strange
to someone living today. -
6:57 - 7:01So how does the history of the future,
all of that trial and error, -
7:01 - 7:03lead to a better way
to go to the bathroom? -
7:04 - 7:05There are companies right now
-
7:05 - 7:08who are experimenting
with a kind of cleaning wand -
7:08 - 7:10that can substitute for toilet paper,
-
7:10 - 7:13using compressed air
or sanitizing sprays to clean you off. -
7:13 - 7:18But what if those things looked
more like flowers than technology? -
7:18 - 7:22What if your toilet
could analyze your waste -
7:22 - 7:25and let you know if your microbiome
might need a little tune-up? -
7:25 - 7:29What if today's experiments
with turning human waste into fuel -
7:29 - 7:32leads to a smart battery
that could help power your home? -
7:33 - 7:35But back to the city of the future.
-
7:35 - 7:36How do people navigate the space?
-
7:36 - 7:40If there's no streets, how do people
even make sense of the geography? -
7:40 - 7:42I like to think of a place
where there are spaces -
7:42 - 7:45that are partially only in virtual reality
-
7:45 - 7:48that maybe you need
special hardware to even discover. -
7:48 - 7:52Like for one story, I came up with a thing
called "the cloudscape interface," -
7:52 - 7:57which I described as a chrome spider
that plugs into your head -
7:57 - 7:59using temporal nodes.
-
7:59 - 8:02No, that's not a picture of it,
but it's a fun picture I took in a bar. -
8:02 - 8:04(Laughter)
-
8:04 - 8:08And I got really carried away
imagining the bars, restaurants, cafés -
8:09 - 8:11that you could only find your way inside
-
8:11 - 8:14if you had the correct
augmented reality hardware. -
8:14 - 8:17But again, second-order effects:
-
8:17 - 8:20in a world shaped by augmented reality,
-
8:20 - 8:22what kind of new communities will we have,
-
8:22 - 8:25what kind of new crimes
that we haven't even thought of yet? -
8:25 - 8:28OK, like, let's say that you and I
are standing next to each other, -
8:28 - 8:32and you think that we're
in a noisy sports bar, -
8:32 - 8:35and I think we're in a highbrow salon
-
8:35 - 8:38with a string quartet
talking about Baudrillard. -
8:39 - 8:42I can't possibly imagine
what might go wrong in that scenario. -
8:42 - 8:46Like, it's just -- I'm sure it'll be fine.
-
8:46 - 8:47And then there's social media.
-
8:47 - 8:52I can imagine some pretty
frickin' dystopian scenarios -
8:52 - 8:54where things like internet quizzes,
-
8:54 - 8:57dating apps, horoscopes, bots,
-
8:57 - 9:01all combine to drag you down deeper
and deeper rabbit holes -
9:01 - 9:05into bad relationships and worse politics.
-
9:06 - 9:08But then I think about
the conversations that I've had -
9:08 - 9:10with people who work on AI,
-
9:10 - 9:14and what I always hear from them
is that the smarter AI gets, -
9:14 - 9:16the better it is at making connections.
-
9:16 - 9:21So maybe the social media
of the future will be better. -
9:21 - 9:25Maybe it'll help us to form healthier,
less destructive relationships. -
9:26 - 9:30Maybe we'll have devices that enable
togetherness and serendipity. -
9:30 - 9:32I really hope so.
-
9:32 - 9:37And, you know, I like to think
that if strong AI ever really exists, -
9:37 - 9:41they'll probably enjoy
our weird relationship drama -
9:41 - 9:46the same way that you and I love to obsess
about the "Real Housewives of Wherever." -
9:46 - 9:47And finally, there's medicine.
-
9:47 - 9:51I think a lot about how developments
in genetic medicine -
9:51 - 9:55could improve outcomes for people
with cancer or dementia, -
9:55 - 10:01and maybe one day, your hundredth birthday
will be just another milestone -
10:01 - 10:05on the way to another two or three
decades of healthy, active life. -
10:05 - 10:07Maybe the toilet of the future
that I mentioned -
10:07 - 10:10will improve health outcomes
for a lot of people, -
10:10 - 10:12including people in parts of the world
-
10:12 - 10:15where they don't have these complicated
sewer systems that I mentioned. -
10:15 - 10:18But also, as a transgender person,
-
10:18 - 10:23I like to think: What if we make advances
in understanding the endocrine system -
10:23 - 10:26that improve the options for trans people,
-
10:26 - 10:30the same way that hormones and surgeries
expanded the options -
10:30 - 10:31for the previous generation?
-
10:31 - 10:34So finally: basically,
I'm here to tell you, -
10:34 - 10:36people talk about the future
-
10:36 - 10:40as though it's either going to be
a technological wonderland -
10:40 - 10:44or some kind of apocalyptic poop barbecue.
-
10:44 - 10:45(Laughter)
-
10:45 - 10:48But the truth is, it's not going
to be either of those things. -
10:48 - 10:52It's going to be in the middle. It's going
to be both. It's going to be everything. -
10:52 - 10:53The one thing we do know
-
10:53 - 10:56is that the future is going
to be incredibly weird. -
10:56 - 10:59Just think about how weird
the early 21st century would appear -
10:59 - 11:01to someone from the early 20th.
-
11:01 - 11:05And, you know, there's a kind
of logical fallacy that we all have -
11:05 - 11:08where we expect the future
to be an extension of the present. -
11:08 - 11:09Like, people in the 1980s
-
11:09 - 11:12thought that the Soviet Union
would still be around today. -
11:13 - 11:18But the future is going to be much weirder
than we could possibly dream of. -
11:18 - 11:19But we can try.
-
11:19 - 11:23And I know that there are going
to be scary, scary things, -
11:23 - 11:27but there's also going to be
wonders and saving graces. -
11:27 - 11:31And the first step
to finding your way forward -
11:31 - 11:34is to let your imagination run free.
-
11:35 - 11:36Thank you.
-
11:36 - 11:40(Applause)
- Title:
- Go ahead, dream about the future
- Speaker:
- Charlie Jane Anders
- Description:
-
"You don't predict the future -- you imagine the future," says sci-fi writer Charlie Jane Anders. In a talk that's part dream, part research-based extrapolation, she takes us on a wild, speculative tour of the delights and challenges the future may hold -- and shows how dreaming up weird, futuristic possibilities empowers us to construct a better tomorrow.
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 11:55
Erin Gregory approved English subtitles for Go ahead, dream about the future | ||
Erin Gregory edited English subtitles for Go ahead, dream about the future | ||
Camille Martínez accepted English subtitles for Go ahead, dream about the future | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for Go ahead, dream about the future | ||
Camille Martínez edited English subtitles for Go ahead, dream about the future | ||
Joseph Geni edited English subtitles for Go ahead, dream about the future | ||
Joseph Geni edited English subtitles for Go ahead, dream about the future | ||
Joseph Geni edited English subtitles for Go ahead, dream about the future |