[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.06,0:00:02.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Helen Walters: So, Chris, who's up first?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.16,0:00:06.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chris Anderson: Well, we have a man\Nwho's worried about pandemics
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.38,0:00:08.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pretty much his whole life.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.74,0:00:11.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He played an absolutely key role,\Nmore than 40 years ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.50,0:00:15.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in helping the world get rid\Nof the scourge of smallpox.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.97,0:00:17.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in 2006,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.50,0:00:20.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he came to TED to warn the world
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.86,0:00:24.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the dire risk of a global pandemic,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.90,0:00:26.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what we might do about it.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.46,0:00:29.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So please welcome here\NDr. Larry Brilliant.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.24,0:00:31.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Larry, so good to see you.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.86,0:00:34.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Larry Brilliant: Thank you,\Nnice to see you.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.86,0:00:37.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Larry, in that talk,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.12,0:00:39.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you showed a video clip\Nthat was a simulation
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.89,0:00:42.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what a pandemic might look like.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.93,0:00:45.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I would like to play it --\Nthis gave me chills.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.93,0:00:49.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Larry Brilliant (TED2006):\NLet me show you a simulation
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.75,0:00:52.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of what a pandemic looks like,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.52,0:00:54.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we know what we're talking about.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.17,0:00:58.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's assume, for example,\Nthat the first case occurs in South Asia.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.12,0:01:02.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It initially goes quite slowly,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.52,0:01:05.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you get two or three discrete locations.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.90,0:01:09.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then there will be secondary outbreaks.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.94,0:01:13.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the disease will spread\Nfrom country to country so fast
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.47,0:01:15.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you won't know what hit you.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.23,0:01:19.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Within three weeks,\Nit will be everywhere in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.53,0:01:22.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now if we had an undo button,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.99,0:01:24.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we could go back
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.96,0:01:27.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and isolate it and grab it\Nwhen it first started,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.89,0:01:30.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we could find it early\Nand we had early detection
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.51,0:01:31.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and early response,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.74,0:01:35.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we could put each one\Nof those viruses in jail,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.45,0:01:40.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's the only way to deal\Nwith something like a pandemic.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.08,0:01:44.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Larry, that phrase\Nyou mentioned there,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.32,0:01:46.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"early detection," "early response,"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.30,0:01:48.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that was a key theme of that talk,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.31,0:01:51.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you made us all repeat it several times.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.65,0:01:55.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is that still the key\Nto preventing a pandemic?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.57,0:01:58.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LB: Oh, surely.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.88,0:02:00.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, when you have a pandemic,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.76,0:02:04.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,something moving at exponential speed,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.88,0:02:08.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you miss the first two weeks,\Nif you're late the first two weeks,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.10,0:02:11.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's not the deaths and the illness\Nfrom the first two weeks you lose,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.58,0:02:13.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's the two weeks at the peak.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.92,0:02:17.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those are prevented if you act early.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.62,0:02:20.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Early response is critical,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.24,0:02:22.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,early detection is a condition precedent.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.01,0:02:25.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: And how would you grade the world
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.86,0:02:29.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on its early detection,\Nearly response to COVID-19?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.95,0:02:33.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LB: Of course, you gave me\Nthis question earlier,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.26,0:02:35.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so I've been thinking a lot about it.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.05,0:02:37.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think I would go through the countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.04,0:02:38.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I've actually made a list.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.94,0:02:44.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think the island republics of Taiwan,\NIceland and certainly New Zealand
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.66,0:02:45.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would get an A.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.28,0:02:49.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The island republic of the UK\Nand the United States --
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.83,0:02:53.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is not an island,\Nno matter how much we may think we are --
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.57,0:02:55.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would get a failing grade.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.05,0:03:00.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'd give a B to South Korea\Nand to Germany.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.24,0:03:01.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in between ...
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.79,0:03:05.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it's a very heterogeneous\Nresponse, I think.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.11,0:03:07.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The world as a whole is faltering.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.100,0:03:11.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We shouldn't be proud\Nof what's happening right now.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.97,0:03:15.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: I mean, we got\Nthe detection pretty early,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.78,0:03:19.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or at least some doctors in China\Ngot the detection pretty early.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.05,0:03:24.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LB: Earlier than the 2002 SARS,\Nwhich took six months.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.52,0:03:27.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This took about six weeks.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.19,0:03:29.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And detection means not only finding it,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.43,0:03:30.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but knowing what it is.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.69,0:03:34.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I would give us\Na pretty good score on that.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.23,0:03:37.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The transparency, the communication --\Nthose are other issues.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.71,0:03:42.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So what was the key mistake
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.63,0:03:45.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you think the countries\Nyou gave an F to made?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.92,0:03:48.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LB: I think fear,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.54,0:03:52.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,political incompetence, interference,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.68,0:03:55.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not taking it seriously soon enough --
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.04,0:03:57.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's pretty human.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.28,0:03:58.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think throughout history,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:58.73,0:04:03.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pretty much every pandemic\Nis first viewed with denial and doubt.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.96,0:04:05.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But those countries that acted quickly,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.85,0:04:08.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and even those who started slow,\Nlike South Korea,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.50,0:04:11.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they could still make up for it,\Nand they did really well.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.20,0:04:15.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've had two months that we've lost.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.05,0:04:18.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've given a virus\Nthat moves exponentially
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.01,0:04:20.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a two-month head start.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.94,0:04:22.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's not a good idea, Chris.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.39,0:04:24.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: No, indeed.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.63,0:04:27.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, there's so much\Npuzzling information still out there
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.51,0:04:29.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about this virus.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.64,0:04:33.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What do you think the scientific consensus\Nis going to likely end up being
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.94,0:04:35.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on, like, the two key numbers
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.58,0:04:39.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of its infectiousness\Nand its fatality rate?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.94,0:04:44.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LB: So I think the kind of\Nequation to keep in mind
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.45,0:04:48.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that the virus moves\Ndependent on three major issues.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.28,0:04:50.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One is the R0,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.18,0:04:54.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the first number of secondary cases\Nthat there are when the virus emerges.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.75,0:04:56.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In this case,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.76,0:05:00.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people talk about it being 2.2, 2.4.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.10,0:05:02.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But a really important paper\Nthree weeks ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.84,0:05:07.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the "Emerging Infectious\NDiseases" journal came out,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.97,0:05:10.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,suggesting that looking back\Non the Wuhan data,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.43,0:05:12.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's really 5.7.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.16,0:05:13.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So for argument's sake,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.38,0:05:16.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,let's say that the virus is moving\Nat exponential speed
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.46,0:05:20.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the exponent\Nis somewhere between 2.2 and 5.7.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.65,0:05:22.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The other two factors that matter
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.29,0:05:25.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are the incubation period\Nor the generation time.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.37,0:05:26.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The longer that is,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.55,0:05:29.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the slower the pandemic appears to us.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.94,0:05:33.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When it's really short,\Nlike six days, it moves like lightning.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.06,0:05:35.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then the last,\Nand the most important --
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.13,0:05:36.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's often overlooked --
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.57,0:05:38.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the density of susceptibles.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.74,0:05:40.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a novel virus,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.46,0:05:44.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we want to know how many customers\Ncould it potentially have.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.09,0:05:47.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And as it's novel,\Nthat's eight billion of us.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.27,0:05:49.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The world is facing a virus
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.06,0:05:52.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that looks at all of us\Nlike equally susceptible.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.12,0:05:54.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Doesn't matter our color, our race,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.17,0:05:55.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or how wealthy we are.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.46,0:06:00.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: I mean, none of the numbers\Nthat you've mentioned so far
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.29,0:06:05.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are in themselves different\Nfrom any other infections in recent years.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.30,0:06:08.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is the combination\Nthat has made this so deadly?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.46,0:06:11.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LB: Well, it is exactly the combination
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.40,0:06:15.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the short incubation period\Nand the high transmissibility.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.65,0:06:21.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But you know, everybody on this call\Nhas known somebody who has the disease.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.61,0:06:24.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sadly, many have lost a loved one.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.01,0:06:28.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a terrible disease\Nwhen it is serious.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.63,0:06:31.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I get calls from doctors\Nin emergency rooms
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.92,0:06:35.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and treating people in ICUs\Nall over the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.87,0:06:37.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they all say the same thing:
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.43,0:06:41.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"How do I choose who is going to live\Nand who is going to die?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.47,0:06:44.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I have so few tools to deal with."
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.95,0:06:46.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a terrifying disease,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.94,0:06:50.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to die alone with a ventilator\Nin your lungs,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:50.16,0:06:53.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's a disease\Nthat affects all of our organs.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.24,0:06:55.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a respiratory disease --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.31,0:06:56.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,perhaps misleading.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.70,0:06:58.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Makes you think of a flu.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.32,0:07:00.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But so many of the patients\Nhave blood in their urine
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.88,0:07:02.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from kidney disease,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.07,0:07:03.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have gastroenteritis,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.94,0:07:06.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they certainly have\Nheart failure very often,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.87,0:07:10.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we know that it affects taste and smell,\Nthe olfactory nerves,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.89,0:07:13.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we know, of course, about the lung.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.31,0:07:14.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The question I have:
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.54,0:07:17.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is there any organ\Nthat it does not affect?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.89,0:07:19.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in that sense,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.39,0:07:22.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it reminds me all too much of smallpox.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.06,0:07:26.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So we're in a mess.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.47,0:07:28.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's the way forward from here?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.62,0:07:31.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LB: Well, the way forward\Nis still the same.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.87,0:07:33.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Rapid detection,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.15,0:07:34.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rapid response.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.79,0:07:36.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Finding every case,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.28,0:07:39.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then figuring out all the contacts.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.46,0:07:41.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We've got great new technology\Nfor contact tracing,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.86,0:07:45.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we've got amazing scientists\Nworking at the speed of light
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.34,0:07:48.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to give us test kits\Nand antivirals and vaccines.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.100,0:07:51.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need to slow down,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.90,0:07:54.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Buddhists say slow down time
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.99,0:07:58.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that you can put your heart,\Nyour soul, into that space.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.36,0:08:01.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need to slow down\Nthe speed of this virus,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.30,0:08:03.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is why we do social distancing.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.50,0:08:04.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just to be clear --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.68,0:08:06.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,flattening the curve, social distancing,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.02,0:08:10.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it doesn't change\Nthe absolute number of cases,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.82,0:08:14.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it changes what could be\Na Mount Fuji-like peak
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.71,0:08:16.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into a pulse,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.19,0:08:20.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then we won't also lose people\Nbecause of competition for hospital beds,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.91,0:08:24.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people who have heart attacks,\Nneed chemotherapy, difficult births,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.85,0:08:26.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can get into the hospital,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.82,0:08:29.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we can use the scarce\Nresources we have,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.55,0:08:31.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,especially in the developing world,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.54,0:08:32.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to treat people.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.74,0:08:34.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So slow down,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.75,0:08:37.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,slow down the speed of the epidemic,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.16,0:08:40.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then in the troughs, in between waves,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.74,0:08:43.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,jump on, double down, step on it,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.79,0:08:45.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and find every case,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.66,0:08:46.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,trace every contact,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.01,0:08:48.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,test every case,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.28,0:08:51.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then only quarantine\Nthe ones who need to be quarantined,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.93,0:08:54.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and do that until we have a vaccine.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.23,0:08:59.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So it sounds like we have to get\Npast the stage of just mitigation,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.88,0:09:03.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we're just trying\Nto take a general shutdown,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.17,0:09:06.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the point where we can start\Nidentifying individual cases again
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.59,0:09:08.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and contact-trace for them
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.60,0:09:10.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and treat them separately.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.34,0:09:11.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, to do that,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.73,0:09:16.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that seems like it's going to take\Na step up of coordination,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.04,0:09:19.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ambition, organization, investment,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:19.70,0:09:23.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we're not really seeing\Nthe signs of yet in some countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.56,0:09:25.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can we do this, how can we do this?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.94,0:09:27.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LB: Oh, of course we can do this.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:27.55,0:09:31.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, Taiwan did it so beautifully,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.08,0:09:33.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Iceland did it so beautifully, Germany,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.17,0:09:34.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all with different strategies,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.67,0:09:36.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,South Korea.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.13,0:09:39.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It really requires competent governance,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.70,0:09:42.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a sense of seriousness,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.12,0:09:46.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and listening to the scientists,\Nnot the politicians following the virus.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.70,0:09:48.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of course we can do this.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.74,0:09:49.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me remind everybody --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.02,0:09:51.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is not the zombie apocalypse,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:52.02,0:09:54.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's not a mass extinction event.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.78,0:10:00.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, 98, 99 percent of us\Nare going to get out of this alive.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.84,0:10:04.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need to deal with it\Nthe way we know we can,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.19,0:10:07.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we need to be\Nthe best version of ourselves.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.11,0:10:09.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Both sitting at home
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.20,0:10:12.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as well as in science,\Nand certainly in leadership.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:14.24,0:10:17.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: And might there be even\Nworse pathogens out there
Dialogue: 0,0:10:17.60,0:10:18.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the future?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.78,0:10:20.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Like, can you picture or describe
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.41,0:10:22.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an even worse combination of those numbers
Dialogue: 0,0:10:22.98,0:10:26.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we should start to get ready for?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.62,0:10:31.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LB: Well, smallpox\Nhad an R0 of 3.5 to 4.5,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.49,0:10:35.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that's probably about what I think\Nthis COVID will be.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.52,0:10:38.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it killed a third of the people.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.10,0:10:39.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we had a vaccine.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:39.47,0:10:43.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So those are the different\Nsets that you have.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.21,0:10:44.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what I'm mostly worried about,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.93,0:10:46.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the reason that we made "Contagion"
Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.82,0:10:48.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that was a fictional virus --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.89,0:10:51.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I repeat, for those of you watching,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.15,0:10:52.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's fiction.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:52.34,0:10:56.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We created a virus that killed\Na lot more than this one did.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.20,0:10:58.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: You're talking\Nabout the movie "Contagion"
Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.58,0:11:00.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's been trending on Netflix.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.89,0:11:02.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you were an advisor for.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.33,0:11:04.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LB: Absolutely, that's right.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.26,0:11:06.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we made that movie deliberately
Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.29,0:11:08.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to show what a real pandemic looked like,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.61,0:11:11.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we did choose a pretty awful virus.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.54,0:11:14.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the reason we showed it like that,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.37,0:11:16.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,going from a bat to an apple,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.62,0:11:19.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to a pig, to a cook, to Gwyneth Paltrow,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.51,0:11:23.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was because that is in nature\Nwhat we call spillover,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:23.93,0:11:26.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as zoonotic diseases,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.32,0:11:29.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,diseases of animals,\Nspill over to human beings.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.67,0:11:31.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if I look backwards three decades
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.77,0:11:33.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or forward three decades --
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.73,0:11:37.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,looking backward three decades,\NEbola, SARS, Zika,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.57,0:11:39.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,swine flu, bird flu, West Nile,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:39.76,0:11:42.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can begin almost a catechism
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.18,0:11:46.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and listen to all the cacophony\Nof these names.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.14,0:11:51.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there were 30 to 50 novel viruses\Nthat jumped into human beings.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:51.78,0:11:53.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'm afraid, looking forward,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:53.75,0:11:55.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we are in the age of pandemics,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:55.81,0:11:57.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have to behave like that,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:57.83,0:12:00.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need to practice One Health,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.26,0:12:02.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need to understand\Nthat we're living in the same world
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.98,0:12:05.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as animals, the environment, and us,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:05.37,0:12:10.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we get rid of this fiction\Nthat we are some kind of special species.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.28,0:12:11.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To the virus, we're not.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.62,0:12:13.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Mmm.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:13.79,0:12:15.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You mentioned vaccines, though.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:15.55,0:12:18.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Do you see any accelerated\Npath to a vaccine?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.05,0:12:20.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LB: I do.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.24,0:12:24.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm actually excited to see\Nthat we're doing something
Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.14,0:12:27.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we only get to think of\Nin computer science,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:27.52,0:12:30.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is we're changing\Nwhat should have always been,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.28,0:12:32.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or has always been, rather,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.04,0:12:34.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,multiple sequential processes.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.68,0:12:39.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Do safety testing,\Nthen you test for effectiveness,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.63,0:12:41.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then for efficiency.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:41.10,0:12:42.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then you manufacture.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:42.82,0:12:45.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're doing all three\Nor four of those steps,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.20,0:12:48.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,instead of doing it in sequence,\Nwe're doing in parallel.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.22,0:12:52.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Bill Gates has said he's going to build\Nseven vaccine production lines
Dialogue: 0,0:12:52.25,0:12:53.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the United States,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.43,0:12:55.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and start preparing for production,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.13,0:12:58.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not knowing what the end vaccine\Nis going to be.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:58.25,0:13:03.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're simultaneously doing\Nsafety tests and efficacy tests.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.60,0:13:06.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think the NIH has jumped up.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:06.16,0:13:08.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm very thrilled to see that.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.38,0:13:13.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: And how does that translate\Ninto a likely time line, do you think?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:13.11,0:13:15.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A year, 18 months, is that possible?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.91,0:13:19.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LB: You know, Tony Fauci\Nis our guru in this,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:19.24,0:13:21.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he said 12 to 18 months.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:21.25,0:13:25.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think that we will do faster\Nthan that in the initial vaccine.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.46,0:13:27.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But you may have heard that this virus
Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.72,0:13:30.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,may not give us the long-term immunity --
Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.01,0:13:32.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that something like smallpox would do.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:32.97,0:13:36.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we're trying to make vaccines\Nwhere we add adjuvants
Dialogue: 0,0:13:36.92,0:13:42.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that actually make the vaccine\Ncreate better immunity
Dialogue: 0,0:13:42.38,0:13:43.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than the disease,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.61,0:13:46.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that we can confer immunity\Nfor many years.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:46.70,0:13:48.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's going to take a little longer.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:49.14,0:13:50.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Last question, Larry.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:50.54,0:13:55.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Back in 2006,\Nas a winner of the TED Prize,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:55.54,0:13:56.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we granted you a wish,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.72,0:14:00.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you wished the world would create\Nthis pandemic preparedness system
Dialogue: 0,0:14:00.42,0:14:02.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that would prevent\Nsomething like this happening.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.76,0:14:05.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I feel like we, the world, let you down.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.14,0:14:08.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you were to make another wish now,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.11,0:14:09.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what would it be?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:10.70,0:14:14.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LB: Well, I don't think we're let down\Nin terms of speed of detection.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:14.06,0:14:15.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm actually pretty pleased.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.46,0:14:17.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When we met in 2006,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:17.73,0:14:21.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the average one of these viruses\Nleaping from an animal to a human,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:21.40,0:14:23.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it took us six months to find that --
Dialogue: 0,0:14:23.20,0:14:25.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like the first Ebola, for example.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:25.16,0:14:28.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're now finding\Nthe first cases in two weeks.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:28.51,0:14:30.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm not unhappy about that,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:30.28,0:14:33.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'd like to push it down\Nto a single incubation period.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:33.55,0:14:34.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a bigger issue for me.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:34.89,0:14:38.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What I found is that in\Nthe Smallpox Eradication Programme
Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.85,0:14:42.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,people of all colors,\Nall religions, all races,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:42.46,0:14:43.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so many countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:43.81,0:14:45.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,came together.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.16,0:14:48.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it took working as a global community
Dialogue: 0,0:14:48.51,0:14:51.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to conquer a global pandemic.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.48,0:14:57.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I feel that we have become victims\Nof centrifugal forces.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.46,0:15:01.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're in our nationalistic\Nkind of barricades.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:01.69,0:15:05.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We will not be able to conquer a pandemic
Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.37,0:15:07.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unless we believe\Nwe're all in it together.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:07.78,0:15:11.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is not some Age of Aquarius,\Nor Kumbaya statement,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:11.93,0:15:15.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is what a pandemic\Nforces us to realize.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:15.18,0:15:16.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We are all in it together,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:16.96,0:15:20.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we need a global solution\Nto a global problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:20.42,0:15:23.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Anything less than that is unthinkable.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:24.15,0:15:26.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Larry Brilliant,\Nthank you so very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:27.21,0:15:28.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,LB: Thank you, Chris.