[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.00,0:00:03.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Toby Walsh) I wanna talk \Nabout artificial intelligence: it's --
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.67,0:00:05.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm a professor of artificial intelligence
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.09,0:00:09.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and its a great time, 2015, \Nto be working in AI.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.54,0:00:10.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're making real palpable progress
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.54,0:00:12.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there's loads of money \Nbeing thrown at us.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.82,0:00:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Google just spent \Nfive hundred million dollars --
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.00,0:00:21.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pounds buying an AI startup called Deep Mind a couple of weeks ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.99,0:00:25.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,today they announced that they were \Ngoing to spend a billion dollars
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.67,0:00:28.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,setting up an AI lab in Silicon Valley.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.00,0:00:31.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,IBM is betting about \Na third of the company
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.83,0:00:34.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on their cognitive AI computing effort.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.08,0:00:38.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it's really interesting time to be working in AI.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.63,0:00:41.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the first thing I wanted to \Nhelp inform you about
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.25,0:00:46.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is what is the state of art, \Nwhat progress have we made in AI
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.79,0:00:51.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because Hollywood paints \Nall these pictures,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.19,0:00:53.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these mostly dystopian pictures of AI.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.50,0:00:58.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whenever the next science fiction movie\Ncomes out, I put my head in my hands
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.67,0:01:01.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and think Oh my God, what do people think\Nthat we're doing?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.76,0:01:08.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, I wanted to start by just giving you\Na feel for what actually is really capable.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.08,0:01:13.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So a couple of years ago, IBM Watson\Nwon the game show Jeopardy 1,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.87,0:01:19.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the million dollar prize in the game show,\NJeopardy P, the reigning human champions.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.74,0:01:23.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, you might think, well that's just\Na party trick, isn't it?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.36,0:01:27.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a -- pour enough of Wikipedia \Nand the internet into a computer,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.62,0:01:30.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it can answer general knowledge\Nquestions.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.54,0:01:33.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, you guys are being a bit unfair to\NIBM Watson,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.20,0:01:35.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there are the cryptic questions\Nthey are answering.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.88,0:01:40.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But just to give you a real feel for \Nwhat is technically possible today,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.88,0:01:43.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,something that was announced\Njust two days ago:
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.83,0:01:51.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some colleagues of mine at NII in Japan\Npassed the University Entrance Exam
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.87,0:01:53.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with an AI program.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.43,0:01:56.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I thought long and hard about\Nputting up a page of maths.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.33,0:01:58.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I thought, well, I'm going to get --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.01,0:02:01.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,half of the audience is going to leave \Nimmediately if I put up a page of math
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.35,0:02:03.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I wanted you to see, just to feel
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.96,0:02:07.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the depth of questions \Nthat they are answering.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.40,0:02:11.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is from the maths paper, you know,\Na non trivial, sort of,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.51,0:02:15.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you come from the UK, \NA-level-like math question
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.15,0:02:16.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they were able to answer
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.27,0:02:21.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here is a physics question\Nabout Newtonian dynamics
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.89,0:02:23.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they were able to answer.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.55,0:02:28.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now they got 511 points, out of\Na maximum of 950.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.94,0:02:32.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's more than the average score\Nof Japanese students
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.39,0:02:34.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sitting the entrance exam.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.01,0:02:38.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They would have got into most \NJapanese universities with a score of 511.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.91,0:02:40.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what's possible today.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.62,0:02:44.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Their ambition in 10 years' time is to get\Ninto Tokyo, University of Tokyo,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.13,0:02:46.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is one of the best universities\Nin the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.49,0:02:50.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, this is why I put up \Na picture of Terminator,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.48,0:02:53.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because whenever I talk to the media\Nabout what we do in AI,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.48,0:02:55.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they put up a picture of Terminator,\Nright?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.77,0:02:58.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I don't want you to worry \Nabout Terminator,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.10,0:03:02.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Terminator is at least \N50 to 100 years away.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.58,0:03:05.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and there are lots of reasons why\Nwe don't have to worry about it,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.98,0:03:07.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about Terminator.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.25,0:03:08.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm not going to go and spend\Ntoo much time
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.98,0:03:11.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on why you don't have to worry about Terminator.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.68,0:03:13.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there is actually things \Nthat you should worry about,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.33,0:03:15.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,much nearer than Terminator.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.01,0:03:20.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many people have said, \NStephen Hawkins has said
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.16,0:03:22.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that, you know, AI is going to spell\Nthe end of the human race.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.30,0:03:27.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Elon Musk chimed in afterwards, said\N"It's our biggest existential threat."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.79,0:03:32.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Bill Gates followed on by saying,\N"Elon Musk was right."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.50,0:03:39.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Lots of people have said that's a --\NAI is a real existential threat to us.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.52,0:03:42.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't want you to worry about\Nthe existential threat that AI
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.89,0:03:44.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or Terminator is going to bring.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.95,0:03:47.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's actually a very common confusion,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.12,0:03:51.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is that it's not the AI \Nthat's going to be the existential threat,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.14,0:03:52.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's autonomy, it's autonomous systems.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.39,0:03:56.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's in the (check) --
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.04,0:03:57.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it isn't it going to wake up \Nany time in the morning and say:
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.97,0:04:02.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"You know what? I'm tired \Nof playing Jeopardy,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.11,0:04:04.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"I want to play Who Wants to Be a Millionaire!
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.30,0:04:07.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Or wait a second, I'm tired of playing \Ngame shows,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.47,0:04:09.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want to take over the universe."
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.82,0:04:12.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's just not in its code, there is no way,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.20,0:04:15.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's not given any freedom to think \Nabout anything other
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.06,0:04:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than maximizing its Jeopardy score.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.22,0:04:21.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it has no desires, no other desires than,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.23,0:04:23.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,other to improve its maximum scores.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.48,0:04:26.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I don't want you to worry about Terminator,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.35,0:04:29.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I do want you to worry about jobs.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.97,0:04:32.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because lots of people, \Nlots of very serious people,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.17,0:04:35.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have been saying \Nhat AI is going to end jobs,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.08,0:04:38.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that is a very great consequence \Nfor anyone working in education,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.16,0:04:42.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because, certainly, the jobs that are going \Nto exist in the future
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.27,0:04:44.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are going to be different \Nthan the jobs that exist today.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.88,0:04:49.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, who has an odd birthday?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.25,0:04:52.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, I haven't told you \Nwhat an odd birthday is yet,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:52.94,0:04:54.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so someone has an odd birthday, like me.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.99,0:04:57.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK. Who was born on an odd-number \Nday of the month?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.86,0:04:59.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was born on the 11th of April, right?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.82,0:05:03.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Come on, it's half the room, \NI know it's half the room.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.37,0:05:04.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.92,0:05:08.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,OK.Well, you want to have \Nan odd birthday, by the way,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.06,0:05:12.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because that means, in 20 years' time, \Nyou will be a person with a job.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.43,0:05:16.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As opposed to the even people, \Nwho won't have jobs.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.28,0:05:20.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's certainty -- if you believe \Nlots of serious people,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.14,0:05:25.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you might have missed this news \Non Friday the 13th,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.01,0:05:27.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I thought this was a rather\Ndepressing news story
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.78,0:05:29.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,....... (check) comparison otherwise ...... (check)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.78,0:05:31.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the chief economist, Bank of England,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.92,0:05:36.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,went on the record saying 50% of jobs \Nwere under threat in the UK.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.95,0:05:40.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he's not the first serious person\Nwho should know what he's talking about
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.42,0:05:42.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who said similar things.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.03,0:05:46.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There was a very influential Merrill Lynch\Nreport that came out a month or to ago
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.27,0:05:49.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saying very similar things about \Nthe impact of AI,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.43,0:05:51.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,robotics, automation on jobs.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:41.74,0:11:30.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,under threat