WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:03.204 (Toby Walsh) I wanna talk about artificial intelligence: it's -- 00:00:03.674 --> 00:00:05.089 I'm a professor of artificial intelligence 00:00:05.089 --> 00:00:09.271 and its a great time, 2015, to be working in AI. 00:00:09.544 --> 00:00:10.544 We're making real palpable progress 00:00:10.544 --> 00:00:12.820 and there's loads of money being thrown at us. 00:00:12.820 --> 00:00:17.000 Google just spent five hundred million dollars -- 00:00:17.000 --> 00:00:21.989 pounds buying an AI startup called Deep Mind a couple of weeks ago, 00:00:21.989 --> 00:00:25.172 today they announced that they were going to spend a billion dollars 00:00:25.671 --> 00:00:28.469 setting up an AI lab in Silicon Valley. 00:00:29.001 --> 00:00:31.591 IBM is betting about a third of the company 00:00:31.830 --> 00:00:34.858 on their cognitive AI computing effort. 00:00:35.084 --> 00:00:38.216 So it's really interesting time to be working in AI. 00:00:38.631 --> 00:00:41.782 But the first thing I wanted to help inform you about 00:00:42.250 --> 00:00:46.792 is what is the state of art, what progress have we made in AI 00:00:46.792 --> 00:00:51.187 because Hollywood paints all these pictures, 00:00:51.187 --> 00:00:53.488 these mostly dystopian pictures of AI. 00:00:53.495 --> 00:00:58.672 Whenever the next science fiction movie comes out, I put my head in my hands 00:00:58.672 --> 00:01:01.755 and think Oh my God, what do people think that we're doing? 00:01:01.755 --> 00:01:08.729 So, I wanted to start by just giving you a feel for what actually is really capable. 00:01:09.081 --> 00:01:13.872 So a couple of years ago, IBM Watson won the game show Jeopardy 1, 00:01:13.872 --> 00:01:19.737 the million dollar prize in the game show, Jeopardy P, the reigning human champions. 00:01:19.737 --> 00:01:23.357 Now, you might think, well that's just a party trick, isn't it? 00:01:23.357 --> 00:01:27.625 It's a -- pour enough of Wikipedia and the internet into a computer, 00:01:27.625 --> 00:01:30.543 and it can answer general knowledge questions. 00:01:30.543 --> 00:01:33.204 Well, you guys are being a bit unfair to IBM Watson, 00:01:33.204 --> 00:01:35.881 there are the cryptic questions they are answering. 00:01:35.881 --> 00:01:40.878 But just to give you a real feel for what is technically possible today, 00:01:40.878 --> 00:01:43.586 something that was announced just two days ago: 00:01:43.834 --> 00:01:51.869 some colleagues of mine at NII in Japan passed the University Entrance Exam 00:01:51.869 --> 00:01:53.433 with an AI program. 00:01:53.433 --> 00:01:56.326 Now, I thought long and hard about putting up a page of maths. 00:01:56.326 --> 00:01:58.007 I thought, well, I'm going to get -- 00:01:58.007 --> 00:02:00.007 half of the audience is going to leave immediately 00:02:00.007 --> 00:02:01.354 if I put up a page of math 00:02:01.354 --> 00:02:03.133 But I wanted you to see, just to feel 00:02:03.962 --> 00:02:07.403 the depth of questions that they were answering. 00:02:07.403 --> 00:02:11.507 So this is from the maths paper, you know, a non trivial, sort of, 00:02:11.507 --> 00:02:15.148 if you come from the UK, A-level-like math question 00:02:15.148 --> 00:02:16.468 that they were able to answer 00:02:17.272 --> 00:02:21.889 Here is a physics question about Newtonian dynamics 00:02:21.889 --> 00:02:23.552 that they were able to answer. 00:02:23.552 --> 00:02:28.545 Now they got 511 points, out of a maximum of 950. 00:02:28.939 --> 00:02:32.391 That's more than the average score of Japanese students 00:02:32.391 --> 00:02:34.007 sitting the entrance exam. 00:02:34.007 --> 00:02:38.542 They would have got into most Japanese universities with a score of 511. 00:02:38.908 --> 00:02:40.621 That's what's possible today. 00:02:40.621 --> 00:02:44.134 Their ambition in 10 years' time is to get into Tokyo, University of Tokyo, 00:02:44.134 --> 00:02:46.434 which is one of the best universities in the world. 00:02:48.488 --> 00:02:50.475 So, this is why I put up a picture of Terminator, 00:02:50.475 --> 00:02:53.468 because whenever I talk to the media about what we do in AI, 00:02:53.476 --> 00:02:55.769 they put up a picture of Terminator, right? 00:02:55.769 --> 00:02:58.098 So I don't want you to worry about Terminator, 00:02:58.098 --> 00:03:02.117 Terminator is at least 50 to 100 years away. 00:03:02.582 --> 00:03:05.985 and there are lots of reasons why we don't have to worry about it, 00:03:05.985 --> 00:03:07.248 about Terminator. 00:03:07.248 --> 00:03:08.979 I'm not going to go and spend too much time 00:03:08.979 --> 00:03:11.348 on why you don't have to worry about Terminator. 00:03:11.676 --> 00:03:13.334 But there is actually things that you should worry about, 00:03:13.334 --> 00:03:15.352 much nearer than Terminator. 00:03:17.007 --> 00:03:20.160 Many people have said, Stephen Hawkins has said 00:03:20.160 --> 00:03:22.713 that, you know, AI is going to spell the end of the human race. 00:03:23.295 --> 00:03:27.961 Elon Musk chimed in afterwards, said "It's our biggest existential threat." 00:03:29.793 --> 00:03:32.841 Bill Gates followed on by saying, "Elon Musk was right." 00:03:33.498 --> 00:03:39.519 Lots of people have said that's a -- AI is a real existential threat to us. 00:03:39.519 --> 00:03:42.887 I don't want you to worry about the existential threat that AI 00:03:42.887 --> 00:03:44.900 or Terminator is going to bring. 00:03:45.953 --> 00:03:47.711 There's actually a very common confusion, 00:03:48.121 --> 00:03:51.139 which is that it's not the AI that's going to be the existential threat, 00:03:51.139 --> 00:03:52.139 it's autonomy, it's autonomous systems. 00:03:54.386 --> 00:03:56.042 What's in the (check) -- 00:03:56.042 --> 00:03:57.972 it isn't it going to wake up any time in the morning and say: 00:03:57.972 --> 00:04:02.109 "You know what? I'm tired of playing Jeopardy, 00:04:02.109 --> 00:04:04.173 "I want to play Who Wants to Be a Millionaire! 00:04:05.299 --> 00:04:07.468 "Or wait a second, I'm tired of playing game shows, 00:04:07.468 --> 00:04:09.393 I want to take over the universe." 00:04:09.821 --> 00:04:12.195 It's just not in its code, there is no way, 00:04:12.195 --> 00:04:15.065 it's not given any freedom to think about anything other 00:04:15.065 --> 00:04:17.000 than maximizing its Jeopardy score. 00:04:18.219 --> 00:04:21.209 And it has no desires, no other desires than, 00:04:21.228 --> 00:04:23.482 other to improve its maximum scores. 00:04:23.482 --> 00:04:26.256 So I don't want you to worry about Terminator, 00:04:27.350 --> 00:04:29.102 but I do want you to worry about jobs. 00:04:29.974 --> 00:04:32.166 Because lots of people, lots of very serious people, 00:04:32.166 --> 00:04:35.076 have been saying hat AI is going to end jobs, 00:04:35.076 --> 00:04:38.157 and that is a very great consequence for anyone working in education, 00:04:38.157 --> 00:04:42.269 because, certainly, the jobs that are going to exist in the future 00:04:42.269 --> 00:04:44.925 are going to be different than the jobs that exist today. 00:04:46.880 --> 00:04:49.724 Now, who has an odd birthday? 00:04:51.251 --> 00:04:52.938 Well, I haven't told you what an odd birthday is yet, 00:04:52.938 --> 00:04:54.990 so someone has an odd birthday, like me. 00:04:54.990 --> 00:04:57.858 OK. Who was born on an odd-number day of the month? 00:04:57.858 --> 00:04:59.995 I was born on the 11th of April, right? 00:05:00.824 --> 00:05:03.368 Come on, it's half the room, I know it's half the room. 00:05:03.368 --> 00:05:04.923 (Laughter) 00:05:04.923 --> 00:05:08.690 OK.Well, you want to have an odd birthday, by the way, 00:05:09.059 --> 00:05:12.504 because that means, in 20 years' time, you will be a person with a job. 00:05:13.426 --> 00:05:16.277 As opposed to the even people, who won't have jobs. 00:05:16.277 --> 00:05:20.662 That's certainty -- if you believe lots of serious people, 00:05:22.141 --> 00:05:25.010 you might have missed this news on Friday the 13th, 00:05:25.010 --> 00:05:27.778 I thought this was a rather depressing news story 00:05:27.778 --> 00:05:29.748 ....... (check) comparison otherwise ...... (check) 00:05:29.777 --> 00:05:31.527 but the chief economist, Bank of England, 00:05:31.922 --> 00:05:36.230 went on the record saying 50% of jobs were under threat in the UK. 00:05:36.948 --> 00:05:40.420 And he's not the first serious person who should know what he's talking about 00:05:40.420 --> 00:05:42.736 who said similar things. 00:05:43.029 --> 00:05:46.255 There was a very influential Merrill Lynch report that came out a month or to ago 00:05:46.270 --> 00:05:49.430 saying very similar things about the impact of AI, 00:05:49.430 --> 00:05:51.375 robotics, automation on jobs. 00:05:53.439 --> 00:05:56.278 And some of this goes back to, I think, one of the first reports 00:05:56.278 --> 00:05:59.288 that really hit the press, that really got people's attention, 00:05:59.288 --> 00:06:02.075 was a report that came out of the Oxford Martin School. 00:06:02.075 --> 00:06:05.702 They predicted that 47% of jobs in the United States 00:06:06.110 --> 00:06:08.550 were under threat of automation in the next 20 years. 00:06:10.234 --> 00:06:13.594 We followed that up with a very similar study and analysis 00:06:13.880 --> 00:06:15.961 for jobs in Australia, where I work. 00:06:16.865 --> 00:06:19.323 And because it's a slightly different profile of workers, 00:06:19.323 --> 00:06:24.329 of the work force in Australia, we came up with a number of around 40%. 00:06:24.329 --> 00:06:27.129 These are non trivial numbers, right? 40-50%. 00:06:27.589 --> 00:06:32.497 No, just an aside: 47%, I don't know why they didn't say 47.2%, right? 00:06:32.497 --> 00:06:35.551 You can't believe a number that's far too precise 00:06:35.551 --> 00:06:37.842 when you're predicting the future, but nevertheless, 00:06:37.842 --> 00:06:39.532 the fact that it's of this sort of scale, 00:06:39.532 --> 00:06:44.601 you've got to take away: it wasn't 4%, it was roughly about half the jobs. 00:06:47.784 --> 00:06:50.495 Now, let's put some context to this. 00:06:50.495 --> 00:06:52.413 I mean, is this really a credible claim? 00:06:52.413 --> 00:06:55.549 The Number One job in the United States today: truck driver. 00:06:55.962 --> 00:06:57.526 Now you might have noticed, 00:06:57.536 --> 00:07:00.079 the autonomous cars are coming to us very soon. 00:07:00.506 --> 00:07:03.579 We're going to be having -- tried the first trial of autonomous cars 00:07:03.579 --> 00:07:06.760 on the roads, public roads of Australia, three weeks ago. 00:07:07.371 --> 00:07:09.657 The Google Car has driven over a million kilometers 00:07:09.657 --> 00:07:12.542 -- or the Google cars, rather, have driven over a million kilometers, 00:07:12.907 --> 00:07:15.050 autonomously, on the roads of California. 00:07:15.893 --> 00:07:18.553 In 20 years' time, we are going to have autonomous cars. 00:07:18.553 --> 00:07:20.255 We're also going to have autonomous trucks. 00:07:21.033 --> 00:07:24.769 So if you are in the Number One profession in the United States, 00:07:24.769 --> 00:07:28.461 you have to worry that your job is not going to be automated away. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 The Number Two job in the United States is salesperson. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 Again, since we use the internet, 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 we've actually mostly automated our purchase ourselves, (check) 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 but it's clear that a lot of those jobs are going to be disappearing. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 So I think these claims have a lot of credibility. 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 There's actually a nice dinner party game that my colleagues and I play 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 at the end of our conferences, where we sit around 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and the game is, you have to name a job 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 and then, someone has to put up some credible evidence 99:59:59.999 --> 99:59:59.999 that we're actually well on the way to actually automating that. 8:06