[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.81,0:00:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was walking through St Pancras station\Non my way here,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.04,0:00:15.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a little man came up to me and said,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.33,0:00:18.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Here, didn't you used to be \NPaddy Ashdown?"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.25,0:00:19.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.60,0:00:21.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, I said that I thought I had been,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.48,0:00:23.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the fact that Walter has invited me\Nhere today
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.98,0:00:25.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seems to indicate that I still am.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.71,0:00:28.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's jolly reassuring,\Nespecially for me.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.20,0:00:31.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, now for something \Ncompletely different.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.38,0:00:33.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There will be some poetry, \None of my passions
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.93,0:00:38.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by the way, this thing says 8.41,\Nshouldn't it say something else?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.87,0:00:41.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was told I had 18 minutes.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.89,0:00:44.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It will go on. Allright.\NThank God for that.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.13,0:00:46.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Otherwise, you'd have a real problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.20,0:00:49.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There will be some poetry \Nand some history,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.68,0:00:52.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I shall unveil for you, \Nmostly tounge in cheek,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.30,0:00:56.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ashdown's third law for the modern age.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.10,0:01:01.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The poetry - and I don't suppose\Nthere's anybody here
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.27,0:01:03.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's not an Anglo -
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.72,0:01:06.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[in French] well, whose mother tongue\Nis not English?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.47,0:01:11.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a poem written by\Na very famous English poet
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.64,0:01:13.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the end of the 19th century.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.28,0:01:16.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was said to echo in Churchill's brain
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.04,0:01:18.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the 1930s.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.06,0:01:20.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the poem goes:
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.08,0:01:22.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"On the idle hill of summer,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.10,0:01:24.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lazy with the flow of streams,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.76,0:01:26.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hark I hear a distant drummer,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.78,0:01:28.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,drumming like a sound in dreams,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.67,0:01:31.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,far and near and low and louder\Non the roads of earth go by,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.69,0:01:34.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,dear to friend and food to powder,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.71,0:01:36.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,soldiers marching,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.64,0:01:38.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,soon to die."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.39,0:01:40.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those who are interested in poetry,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.41,0:01:43.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the poem is "A Shropshire Lad"\Nwritten by A.E. Housman.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.81,0:01:45.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what Housman understood,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.83,0:01:48.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you hear it in the symphonies\Nof Nielsen too,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.05,0:01:53.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that the long, hot, silvan summers
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.52,0:01:55.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of stability of the 19th century
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.54,0:01:57.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were coming to a close,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.11,0:01:58.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that we were about to move
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.81,0:02:01.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into one of those terrifying\Nperiods of history
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.45,0:02:03.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when power changes.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.56,0:02:05.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And these are always periods,\Nladies and gentlemen,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.01,0:02:08.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,accompanied by turbulence,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.58,0:02:10.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and all too often by blood.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.85,0:02:12.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And my message for you
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.36,0:02:14.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that I believe\Nwe are condemned, if you like,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.94,0:02:17.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to live at just one of those\Nmoments in history
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.42,0:02:18.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when the gimbals upon which
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.95,0:02:22.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the established order of power\Nis beginning to change
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.54,0:02:24.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the new look of the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.76,0:02:27.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the new powers that exist in the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.08,0:02:29.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are beginning to take form.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.17,0:02:32.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And these are - and we see it\Nvery clearly today -
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.14,0:02:35.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nearly always highly turbulent\Ntimes, highly difficult times,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.60,0:02:37.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and all too often very bloody times.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.62,0:02:40.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By the way, it happens\Nabout once every century.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.30,0:02:42.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You might argue that the last time\Nit happened -
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.58,0:02:45.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's what Housman felt coming\Nand what Churchill felt too -
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.71,0:02:48.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that when power passed\Nfrom the old nations,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.64,0:02:50.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the old powers of Europe,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.46,0:02:52.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,across the Atlantic\Nto the new emerging power
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.85,0:02:54.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the United States of America -
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.33,0:02:56.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the beginning of the American century.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.82,0:02:58.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And of course, into the vacuum
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.79,0:03:01.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where the too-old European\Npowers used to be
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.62,0:03:04.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were played the two bloody catastrophes
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.38,0:03:06.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the last century -
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.08,0:03:08.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the one in the first part\Nand the one in the second part:
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.85,0:03:10.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the two great World Wars.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.20,0:03:13.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Mao Zedong used to refer to them\Nas the European civil wars,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.19,0:03:15.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's probably a more\Naccurate way of describing them.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.91,0:03:17.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, ladies and gentlemen,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.33,0:03:19.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we live at one of those times.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.20,0:03:22.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But for us, I want to talk\Nabout three factors today.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.41,0:03:25.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the first of these,\Nthe first two of these,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.15,0:03:27.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is about a shift in power.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.60,0:03:30.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the second is about some new\Ndimension which I want to refer to,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.94,0:03:33.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which has never quite happened\Nin the way it's happening now.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.96,0:03:37.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But let's talk about the shifts of power\Nthat are occurring to the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.52,0:03:38.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what is happening today
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.86,0:03:40.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is, in one sense, frightening
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.62,0:03:43.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's never happened before.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.38,0:03:45.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have seen lateral shifts of power -
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.40,0:03:48.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the power of Greece passed to Rome
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.42,0:03:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the power shifts that occurred
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.02,0:03:54.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,during the European civilizations -
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.50,0:03:57.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we are seeing something\Nslightly different.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.74,0:03:59.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For power is not just moving laterally
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.74,0:04:01.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from nation to nation.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.50,0:04:03.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's also moving vertically.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.27,0:04:06.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's happening today\Nis that the power that was encased,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.42,0:04:09.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,held to accountability,\Nheld to the rule of law,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.24,0:04:12.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,within the institution of the nation state
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.26,0:04:15.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has now migrated in very large\Nmeasure onto the global stage.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.10,0:04:17.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The globalization of power -
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.95,0:04:20.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we talk about the globalization\Nof markets,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.01,0:04:22.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but actually it's the globalization\Nof real power.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.50,0:04:25.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And where, at the nation state level
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.80,0:04:27.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that power is held to accountability
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.76,0:04:29.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,subject to the rule of law,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.47,0:04:32.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the international stage it is not.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.49,0:04:36.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The international and the global stage\Nwhere power now resides:
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.02,0:04:39.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the power of the Internet, the power\Nof the satellite broadcasters,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.20,0:04:41.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the power of the money changers -
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.58,0:04:43.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this vast money-go-round
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.10,0:04:47.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that circulates now 32 times\Nthe amount of money necessary
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.10,0:04:51.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the trade it's supposed\Nto be there to finance -
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.10,0:04:53.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the money changers, if you like,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.08,0:04:54.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the financial speculators
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.76,0:04:57.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that have brought us all\Nto our knees quite recently,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.81,0:04:59.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the power of the multinational\Ncorporations
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.88,0:05:01.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now developing budgets
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.84,0:05:04.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,often bigger than medium-sized countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.10,0:05:07.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These live in a global space
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.10,0:05:09.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is largely unregulated,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.10,0:05:11.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not subject to the rule of law,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.70,0:05:13.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in which people may act\Nfree of constraint.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.96,0:05:16.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now that suits the powerful
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.75,0:05:18.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,up to a moment.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.09,0:05:21.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's always suitable for those\Nwho have the most power
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.83,0:05:24.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to operate in spaces without constraint,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.44,0:05:27.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the lesson of history\Nis that, sooner or later,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.73,0:05:29.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unregulated space -
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.75,0:05:31.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,space not subject to the rule of law -
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.10,0:05:35.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,becomes populated, not just\Nby the things you wanted -
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.10,0:05:37.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,international trade, the Internet, etc. -
Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.12,0:05:39.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but also by the things you don't want -
Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.12,0:05:41.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,international criminality,\Ninternational terrorism.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.82,0:05:43.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The revelation of 9/11
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.10,0:05:47.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that even if you\Nare the most powerful nation on Earth,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.10,0:05:51.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nevertheless,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.33,0:05:53.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,those who inhabit\Nthat space can attack you
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.62,0:05:55.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even in your most iconic of cities
Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.57,0:05:57.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one bright September morning.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.47,0:05:59.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's said that something like 60 percent
Dialogue: 0,0:05:59.92,0:06:02.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the four million dollars\Nthat was taken to fund 9/11
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.94,0:06:05.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually passed through the institutions\Nof the Twin Towers
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.96,0:06:07.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which 9/11 destroyed.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.50,0:06:10.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You see, our enemies\Nalso use this space -
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.55,0:06:13.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the space of mass travel, the Internet,\Nsatellite broadcasters -
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.00,0:06:16.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to be able to get around their poison,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.10,0:06:19.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is about destroying\Nour systems and our ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.82,0:06:21.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sooner or later,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.21,0:06:23.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sooner or later,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.24,0:06:24.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the rule of history
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.100,0:06:26.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that where power goes
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.30,0:06:29.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,governance must follow.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.20,0:06:32.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if it is therefore\Nthe case, as I believe it is,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.74,0:06:34.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that one of the phenomenon of our time
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.76,0:06:36.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the globalization of power,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.58,0:06:39.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then it follows\Nthat one of the challenges of our time
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.60,0:06:42.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is to bring governance\Nto the global space.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.36,0:06:45.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I believe that the decades\Nahead of us now
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.32,0:06:48.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be to a greater\Nor lesser extent turbulent
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.54,0:06:52.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more or less we are able\Nto achieve that aim:
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.56,0:06:54.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to bring governance to the global space.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.59,0:06:56.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now notice, I'm not talking\Nabout government.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.76,0:06:58.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm not talking about setting up
Dialogue: 0,0:06:58.50,0:07:01.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some global democratic institution.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.32,0:07:03.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My own view, by the way,\Nladies and gentlemen,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.54,0:07:05.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that this is unlikely to be done
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.96,0:07:07.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by spawning more U.N. institutions.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.96,0:07:10.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we didn't have the U.N.,\Nwe'd have to invent it.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.56,0:07:12.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The world needs an international forum.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.46,0:07:15.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It needs a means by which you can\Nlegitimize international action.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:15.71,0:07:18.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But when it comes to governance\Nof the global space,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.21,0:07:20.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,my guess is this won't happen
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.49,0:07:22.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through the creation of more U.N.\Ninstitutions.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.93,0:07:25.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It will actually happen\Nby the powerful coming together
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.69,0:07:27.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and making treaty-based systems,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.71,0:07:29.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,treaty-based agreements,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.73,0:07:31.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to govern that global space.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.42,0:07:34.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if you look, you can see them\Nhappening, already beginning to emerge.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.94,0:07:37.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The World Trade Organization:\Ntreaty-based organization,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.70,0:07:39.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,entirely treaty-based,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.48,0:07:43.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and yet, powerful enough to hold\Neven the most powerful, the United States,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.14,0:07:44.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to account if necessary.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.50,0:07:46.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Kyoto: the beginnings\Nof struggling to create
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.90,0:07:48.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a treaty-based organization.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.80,0:07:50.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The G20:
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.18,0:07:52.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we know now that we have\Nto put together an institution
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.10,0:07:55.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is capable of bringing governance
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.10,0:07:58.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to that financial space\Nfor financial speculation.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.10,0:08:01.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's what the G20 is,\Na treaty-based institution.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.50,0:08:03.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now there's a problem there,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.17,0:08:05.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we'll come back to it in a minute,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.23,0:08:07.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is that if you bring\Nthe most powerful together
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.85,0:08:10.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make the rules\Nin treaty-based institutions,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.14,0:08:12.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to fill that governance space,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.50,0:08:16.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then what happens to the weak\Nwho are left out?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.50,0:08:17.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's a big problem,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.02,0:08:20.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we'll return to it in just a second.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.04,0:08:21.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So there's my first message,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:21.84,0:08:25.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that if you are to pass\Nthrough these turbulent times
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.50,0:08:27.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more or less turbulently,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.91,0:08:29.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then our success in doing that
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.84,0:08:32.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will in large measure\Ndepend on our capacity
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.28,0:08:34.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to bring sensible governance
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.19,0:08:36.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the global space.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.21,0:08:38.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And watch that beginning to happen.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.97,0:08:40.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My second point is,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.34,0:08:43.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I know I don't have to talk\Nto an audience like this
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.03,0:08:44.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about such a thing,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.92,0:08:47.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but power is not just shifting vertically,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.94,0:08:49.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's also shifting horizontally.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.79,0:08:53.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You might argue that the story,\Nthe history of civilizations,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.46,0:08:56.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has been civilizations\Ngathered around seas -
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.48,0:08:58.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the first ones\Naround the Mediterranean,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.66,0:09:03.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more recent ones in the ascendents\Nof Western power around the Atlantic.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.50,0:09:04.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well it seems to me
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.70,0:09:08.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we're now seeing a fundamental\Nshift of power, broadly speaking,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.03,0:09:10.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,away from nations gathered\Naround the Atlantic [seaboard]
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.74,0:09:13.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the nations gathered\Naround the Pacific rim.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.33,0:09:15.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now that begins with economic power,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:15.09,0:09:16.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but that's the way it always begins.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.92,0:09:20.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You already begin to see\Nthe development of foreign policies,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.19,0:09:22.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the augmentation of military budgets
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.08,0:09:24.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,occurring in the other\Ngrowing powers in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.92,0:09:26.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think actually
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.18,0:09:29.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is not so much a shift\Nfrom the West to the East;
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.50,0:09:31.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,something different is happening.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.36,0:09:33.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My guess is, for what it's worth,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.38,0:09:35.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that the United States will remain
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.40,0:09:37.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the most powerful nation on Earth
Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.28,0:09:40.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the next 10 years, 15,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.20,0:09:43.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the context\Nin which she holds her power
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.22,0:09:46.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has now radically altered;\Nit has radically changed.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.50,0:09:48.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We are coming out of 50 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.50,0:09:50.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,most unusual years, of history
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.50,0:09:53.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in which we have had\Na totally mono-polar world,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.50,0:09:55.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in which every compass needle
Dialogue: 0,0:09:55.50,0:09:56.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for or against
Dialogue: 0,0:09:56.97,0:09:59.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has to be referenced by its\Nposition to Washington -
Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.99,0:10:02.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a world bestrode by a single colossus.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.56,0:10:05.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that's not a usual case in history.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.98,0:10:07.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, what's now emerging
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.74,0:10:09.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the much more normal case of history.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.76,0:10:11.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You're beginning to see the emergence
Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.54,0:10:13.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of a multi-polar world.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.56,0:10:14.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Up until now,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:14.98,0:10:18.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the United States has been the dominant\Nfeature of our world.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.78,0:10:20.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They will remain the most powerful nation,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:20.100,0:10:22.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they will be the most powerful nation
Dialogue: 0,0:10:22.100,0:10:24.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in an increasingly multi-polar world.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.86,0:10:28.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you begin to see the alternative\Ncenters of power building up -
Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.12,0:10:29.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in China, of course,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:29.19,0:10:32.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,though my own guess is that China's ascent\Nto greatness is not smooth.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.10,0:10:34.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's going to be quite grumpy
Dialogue: 0,0:10:34.76,0:10:37.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as China begins to democratize her society
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.14,0:10:39.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after liberalizing her economy.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:39.14,0:10:41.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that's a subject\Nof a different discussion.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.70,0:10:43.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You see India, you see Brazil.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.88,0:10:45.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You see increasingly
Dialogue: 0,0:10:45.48,0:10:49.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the world now looks\Nactually, for us Europeans,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:49.37,0:10:52.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,much more like Europe in the 19th century.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:52.50,0:10:54.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Europe in the 19th century:
Dialogue: 0,0:10:54.24,0:10:56.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a great British foreign\Nsecretary, Lord Canning,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.55,0:10:59.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,used to describe it as\Nthe "European concert of powers."
Dialogue: 0,0:10:59.32,0:11:01.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There was a balance, a five-sided balance.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:01.38,0:11:03.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Britain always played to the balance.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.49,0:11:05.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If Paris got together with Berlin,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:05.96,0:11:09.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Britain got together with Vienna\Nand Rome to provide a counterbalance.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.24,0:11:10.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now notice,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:10.36,0:11:13.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a period which is dominated\Nby a mono-polar world,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.61,0:11:15.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have fixed alliances -
Dialogue: 0,0:11:15.08,0:11:17.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,NATO, the Warsaw Pact.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.10,0:11:19.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A fixed polarity of power
Dialogue: 0,0:11:19.04,0:11:20.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,means fixed alliances.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.92,0:11:22.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But a multiple polarity of power
Dialogue: 0,0:11:23.26,0:11:25.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,means shifting and changing alliances.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:25.28,0:11:27.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that's the world we're coming into,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:27.15,0:11:29.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in which we will increasingly see
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.09,0:11:31.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that our alliances are not fixed.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.50,0:11:34.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Canning, the great British\Nforeign secretary once said,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:34.20,0:11:35.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Britain has a common interest,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.80,0:11:37.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but no common allies."
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.34,0:11:39.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we will see increasingly
Dialogue: 0,0:11:39.50,0:11:40.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that even we in the West
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.84,0:11:42.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will reach out, have to reach out,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.86,0:11:45.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,beyond the cozy circle\Nof the Atlantic powers
Dialogue: 0,0:11:45.60,0:11:47.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make alliances with others
Dialogue: 0,0:11:47.50,0:11:49.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we want to get things\Ndone in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:49.82,0:11:51.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Note, that when we went into Libya,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.05,0:11:54.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was not good enough for the West\Nto do it alone;
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.63,0:11:56.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we had to bring others in.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.16,0:11:58.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We had to bring, in this case,\Nthe Arab League in.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:58.65,0:12:01.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My guess is Iraq and Afghanistan\Nare the last times
Dialogue: 0,0:12:01.90,0:12:04.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when the West has tried\Nto do it themselves,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.62,0:12:06.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we haven't succeeded.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.26,0:12:07.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My guess
Dialogue: 0,0:12:07.63,0:12:11.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that we're reaching the beginning\Nof the end of 400 years -
Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.52,0:12:14.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I say 400 years because it's the end\Nof the Ottoman Empire -
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.50,0:12:16.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the hegemony of Western power,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.50,0:12:19.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Western institutions and Western values.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.50,0:12:23.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, up until now,\Nif the West got its act together,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:23.48,0:12:24.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it could propose and dispose
Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.91,0:12:26.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in every corner of the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:27.75,0:12:29.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that's no longer true.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:29.50,0:12:31.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take the last financial crisis
Dialogue: 0,0:12:31.50,0:12:33.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after the Second World War.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.50,0:12:34.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The West got together -
Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.90,0:12:38.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Bretton Woods Institution,\NWorld Bank, International Monetary Fund -
Dialogue: 0,0:12:38.36,0:12:39.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the problem solved.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.94,0:12:41.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now we have to call in others.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:41.97,0:12:43.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now we have to create the G20.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:43.83,0:12:46.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now we have to reach\Nbeyond the cozy circle
Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.57,0:12:48.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of our Western friends.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.38,0:12:50.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me make a prediction for you,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.22,0:12:52.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is probably even more startling.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:52.97,0:12:55.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I suspect we are now reaching the end
Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.99,0:12:57.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of 400 years
Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.81,0:12:59.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when Western power was enough.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:00.50,0:13:02.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People say to me, "The Chinese, of course,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.52,0:13:04.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they'll never get themselves involved
Dialogue: 0,0:13:04.30,0:13:07.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in peace-making, multilateral\Npeace-making around the world."
Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.22,0:13:08.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Oh yes? Why not?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:08.45,0:13:09.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How many Chinese troops
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.01,0:13:13.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are serving under the blue beret,\Nserving under the blue flag,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:13.01,0:13:15.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,serving under the U.N.\Ncommand in the world today?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.39,0:13:16.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,3,700.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:16.41,0:13:18.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How many Americans? 11.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:18.63,0:13:21.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is the largest naval contingent
Dialogue: 0,0:13:21.17,0:13:24.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,tackling the issue of Somali pirates?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.48,0:13:25.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Chinese naval contingent.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.94,0:13:28.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of course they are,\Nthey are a mercantilist nation.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.43,0:13:30.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They want to keep the sea lanes open.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.27,0:13:32.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Increasingly, we are going\Nto have to do business
Dialogue: 0,0:13:32.98,0:13:35.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with people with whom\Nwe do not share values,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:36.00,0:13:38.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but with whom, for the moment,\Nwe share common interests.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:38.94,0:13:40.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a whole new different way
Dialogue: 0,0:13:40.96,0:13:43.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of looking at the world\Nthat is now emerging.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:44.40,0:13:46.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And here's the third factor,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:46.20,0:13:48.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is totally different.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.74,0:13:50.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today in our modern world,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:50.76,0:13:52.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because of the Internet,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.40,0:13:55.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because of the kinds of things\Npeople have been talking about here,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:55.62,0:13:58.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,everything is connected to everything.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:59.65,0:14:01.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We are now interdependent.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:01.67,0:14:03.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We are now interlocked,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:03.99,0:14:05.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as nations, as individuals,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:06.01,0:14:08.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a way which has never\Nbeen the case before,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.22,0:14:10.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,never been the case before.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:10.86,0:14:13.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The interrelationship of nations,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:13.15,0:14:14.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well it's always existed.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.02,0:14:17.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Diplomacy is about managing\Nthe interrelationship of nations.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:17.95,0:14:20.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But now we are intimately locked together.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:20.01,0:14:21.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You get swine flu in Mexico,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:22.31,0:14:24.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's a problem\Nfor Charles de Gaulle Airport
Dialogue: 0,0:14:24.43,0:14:25.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,24 hours later.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:25.80,0:14:28.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Lehman Brothers goes down,\Nthe whole lot collapses.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:28.46,0:14:31.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are fires in the steppes of Russia,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.68,0:14:33.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,food riots in Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:33.70,0:14:37.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We are all now deeply, deeply,\Ndeeply interconnected.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.50,0:14:40.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what that means
Dialogue: 0,0:14:40.81,0:14:43.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the idea of a nation state\Nacting alone,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.19,0:14:47.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not connected with others,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:47.21,0:14:49.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not working with others,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:49.08,0:14:51.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is no longer a viable proposition.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.10,0:14:53.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because the actions of a nation state
Dialogue: 0,0:14:53.50,0:14:55.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are neither confined to itself,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.95,0:14:58.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nor is it sufficient\Nfor the nation state itself
Dialogue: 0,0:14:58.48,0:15:00.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to control its own territory,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.19,0:15:02.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the effects\Noutside the nation state
Dialogue: 0,0:15:02.94,0:15:05.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are now beginning to affect\Nwhat happens inside them.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.62,0:15:07.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was a young soldier
Dialogue: 0,0:15:07.45,0:15:11.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the last of the small\Nempire wars of Britain.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:11.99,0:15:13.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At that time, the defense of my country
Dialogue: 0,0:15:14.01,0:15:16.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was about one thing and one thing only:
Dialogue: 0,0:15:16.78,0:15:19.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how strong was our army,\Nhow strong was our air force,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:19.49,0:15:22.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how strong was our navy\Nand how strong were our allies.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:22.15,0:15:24.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That was when the enemy\Nwas outside the walls.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:24.36,0:15:26.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now the enemy is inside the walls.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:26.62,0:15:29.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now if I want to talk\Nabout the defense of my country,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:29.19,0:15:31.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I have to speak to the Minister of Health
Dialogue: 0,0:15:31.35,0:15:34.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because pandemic disease\Nis a threat to my security,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:34.08,0:15:36.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I have to speak to the Minister\Nof Agriculture
Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.30,0:15:38.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because food security\Nis a threat to my security,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:38.63,0:15:41.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I have to speak\Nto the Minister of Industry
Dialogue: 0,0:15:41.66,0:15:44.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the fragility\Nof our hi-tech infrastructure
Dialogue: 0,0:15:44.95,0:15:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is now a point of attack\Nfor our enemies -
Dialogue: 0,0:15:48.03,0:15:49.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as we see from cyber warfare -
Dialogue: 0,0:15:49.50,0:15:51.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I have to speak\Nto the Minister of Home Affairs
Dialogue: 0,0:15:51.100,0:15:54.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because who has entered my country,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:54.43,0:15:57.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who lives in that terraced\Nhouse in that inner city
Dialogue: 0,0:15:57.25,0:15:59.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has a direct effect\Non what happens in my country -
Dialogue: 0,0:15:59.74,0:16:02.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as we in London saw in the 7/7 bombings.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:03.16,0:16:05.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's no longer the case\Nthat the security of a country
Dialogue: 0,0:16:06.00,0:16:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is simply a matter for its soldiers\Nand its ministry of defense.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:09.02,0:16:11.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's its capacity to lock\Ntogether its institutions.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:12.32,0:16:15.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this tells you\Nsomething very important.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:15.05,0:16:17.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It tells you that, in fact,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:17.07,0:16:19.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our governments, vertically constructed,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:19.56,0:16:22.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,constructed on the economic model\Nof the Industrial Revolution -
Dialogue: 0,0:16:22.67,0:16:25.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,vertical hierarchy,\Nspecialization of tasks,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:25.50,0:16:27.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,command structures -
Dialogue: 0,0:16:27.31,0:16:29.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have got the wrong structures completely.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:29.33,0:16:30.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You in business know
Dialogue: 0,0:16:30.43,0:16:33.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the paradigm structure\Nof our time, ladies and gentlemen,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:33.51,0:16:34.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the network.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:34.70,0:16:36.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's your capacity\Nto network that matters,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:37.16,0:16:40.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,both within your governments\Nand externally.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:40.50,0:16:42.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here is Ashdown's third law.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:42.50,0:16:45.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By the way, don't ask me\Nabout Ashdown's first and second law
Dialogue: 0,0:16:45.43,0:16:47.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because I haven't invented those yet;
Dialogue: 0,0:16:47.28,0:16:50.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it always sounds better\Nif there's a third law, doesn't it?
Dialogue: 0,0:16:50.04,0:16:52.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ashdown's third law\Nis that in the modern age,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:52.18,0:16:54.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where everything\Nis connected to everything,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:54.30,0:16:57.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the most important thing\Nabout what you can do
Dialogue: 0,0:16:57.07,0:16:59.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is what you can do with others.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:59.13,0:17:01.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The most important bit\Nabout your structure -
Dialogue: 0,0:17:01.32,0:17:04.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether you're a government,\Nwhether you're an army regiment,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:04.23,0:17:05.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether you're a business -
Dialogue: 0,0:17:05.66,0:17:07.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is your docking points,\Nyour inter-connectors,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:07.82,0:17:09.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,your capacity to network with others.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:09.75,0:17:11.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You understand that in industry;
Dialogue: 0,0:17:11.52,0:17:13.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,governments don't.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:13.80,0:17:15.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But now one final thing.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:15.82,0:17:18.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If it is the case, ladies\Nand gentlemen - and it is -
Dialogue: 0,0:17:18.69,0:17:20.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we are now locked together
Dialogue: 0,0:17:20.40,0:17:22.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a way that has never\Nbeen quite the same before,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:23.12,0:17:26.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then it's also the case that we share\Na destiny with each other.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:26.56,0:17:29.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Suddenly and for the very first time,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:29.58,0:17:32.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,collective defense, the thing\Nthat has dominated us
Dialogue: 0,0:17:32.90,0:17:34.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as the concept of securing our nations,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:35.50,0:17:37.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is no longer enough.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:37.01,0:17:38.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It used to be the case
Dialogue: 0,0:17:38.18,0:17:41.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that if my tribe was more powerful\Nthan their tribe, I was safe;
Dialogue: 0,0:17:41.25,0:17:44.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if my country was more powerful\Nthan their country, I was safe;
Dialogue: 0,0:17:44.38,0:17:47.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,my alliance, like NATO, was more powerful\Nthan their alliance, I was safe.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:47.86,0:17:49.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is no longer the case.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:49.32,0:17:52.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The advent of the interconnectedness
Dialogue: 0,0:17:52.27,0:17:54.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and of the weapons of mass destruction
Dialogue: 0,0:17:54.23,0:17:55.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,means that, increasingly,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:55.89,0:17:57.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I share a destiny with my enemy.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:58.00,0:17:59.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When I was a diplomat
Dialogue: 0,0:17:59.42,0:18:02.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,negotiating the disarmament\Ntreaties with the Soviet Union
Dialogue: 0,0:18:02.60,0:18:04.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in Geneva in the 1970s,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:04.62,0:18:06.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we succeeded because we understood
Dialogue: 0,0:18:06.64,0:18:08.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we shared a destiny with them.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:08.71,0:18:11.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Collective security is not enough.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:12.16,0:18:13.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Peace has come to Northern Ireland
Dialogue: 0,0:18:13.94,0:18:17.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because both sides realized\Nthat the zero-sum game couldn't work.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:17.14,0:18:19.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They shared a destiny with their enemies.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:19.81,0:18:22.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of the great barriers\Nto peace in the Middle East
Dialogue: 0,0:18:22.43,0:18:25.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that both sides, both Israel\Nand, I think, the Palestinians,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:25.47,0:18:26.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,do not understand
Dialogue: 0,0:18:26.72,0:18:29.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they share a collective destiny.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:29.63,0:18:31.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so suddenly, ladies and gentlemen,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:31.65,0:18:33.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what has been the proposition
Dialogue: 0,0:18:33.32,0:18:36.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of visionaries and poets down the ages
Dialogue: 0,0:18:36.51,0:18:38.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,becomes something we have\Nto take seriously
Dialogue: 0,0:18:38.95,0:18:40.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a matter of public policy.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:41.05,0:18:44.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I started with a poem, I'll end with one.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:44.07,0:18:46.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The great poem of John Donne's.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:47.05,0:18:50.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Send not for whom the bell tolls."
Dialogue: 0,0:18:51.08,0:18:53.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The poem is called "No Man is an Island."
Dialogue: 0,0:18:53.16,0:18:54.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it goes:
Dialogue: 0,0:18:55.25,0:18:57.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Every man's death affected me,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:57.91,0:19:00.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for I am involved in mankind,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:00.50,0:19:02.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,send not to ask
Dialogue: 0,0:19:02.50,0:19:04.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for whom the bell tolls,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:04.50,0:19:06.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it tolls for thee."
Dialogue: 0,0:19:06.50,0:19:09.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For John Donne,\Na recommendation of morality.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:10.08,0:19:11.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For us, I think,
Dialogue: 0,0:19:11.50,0:19:14.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,part of the equation for our survival.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:14.50,0:19:15.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:19:15.64,0:19:18.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)