1 00:00:08,806 --> 00:00:13,004 I was walking through St Pancras station on my way here, 2 00:00:13,037 --> 00:00:15,315 and a little man came up to me and said, 3 00:00:15,334 --> 00:00:18,227 "Here, didn't you used to be Paddy Ashdown?" 4 00:00:18,248 --> 00:00:19,577 (Laughter) 5 00:00:19,597 --> 00:00:21,458 So, I said that I thought I had been, 6 00:00:21,479 --> 00:00:23,950 but the fact that Walter has invited me here today 7 00:00:23,977 --> 00:00:25,686 seems to indicate that I still am. 8 00:00:25,707 --> 00:00:28,180 And that's jolly reassuring, especially for me. 9 00:00:28,200 --> 00:00:31,355 Well, now for something completely different. 10 00:00:31,375 --> 00:00:33,910 There will be some poetry, one of my passions 11 00:00:33,931 --> 00:00:38,347 by the way, this thing says 8.41, shouldn't it say something else? 12 00:00:39,874 --> 00:00:41,874 I was told I had 18 minutes. 13 00:00:41,894 --> 00:00:44,109 It will go on. Allright. Thank God for that. 14 00:00:44,129 --> 00:00:46,053 Otherwise, you'd have a real problem. 15 00:00:47,199 --> 00:00:49,663 There will be some poetry and some history, 16 00:00:49,684 --> 00:00:52,759 and I shall unveil for you, mostly tounge in cheek, 17 00:00:53,302 --> 00:00:56,593 Ashdown's third law for the modern age. 18 00:00:58,104 --> 00:01:01,251 The poetry - and I don't suppose there's anybody here 19 00:01:01,270 --> 00:01:03,703 that's not an Anglo - 20 00:01:03,724 --> 00:01:06,251 [in French] well, whose mother tongue is not English? 21 00:01:08,469 --> 00:01:11,624 There's a poem written by a very famous English poet 22 00:01:11,645 --> 00:01:13,259 at the end of the 19th century. 23 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:16,021 It was said to echo in Churchill's brain 24 00:01:16,042 --> 00:01:18,041 in the 1930s. 25 00:01:18,062 --> 00:01:20,061 And the poem goes: 26 00:01:20,082 --> 00:01:22,081 "On the idle hill of summer, 27 00:01:22,102 --> 00:01:24,616 lazy with the flow of streams, 28 00:01:24,755 --> 00:01:26,754 hark I hear a distant drummer, 29 00:01:26,775 --> 00:01:28,647 drumming like a sound in dreams, 30 00:01:28,668 --> 00:01:31,667 far and near and low and louder on the roads of earth go by, 31 00:01:31,688 --> 00:01:34,687 dear to friend and food to powder, 32 00:01:34,708 --> 00:01:36,623 soldiers marching, 33 00:01:36,644 --> 00:01:38,372 soon to die." 34 00:01:38,393 --> 00:01:40,392 Those who are interested in poetry, 35 00:01:40,413 --> 00:01:43,793 the poem is "A Shropshire Lad" written by A.E. Housman. 36 00:01:43,814 --> 00:01:45,813 But what Housman understood, 37 00:01:45,834 --> 00:01:48,834 and you hear it in the symphonies of Nielsen too, 38 00:01:49,049 --> 00:01:53,211 was that the long, hot, silvan summers 39 00:01:53,525 --> 00:01:55,524 of stability of the 19th century 40 00:01:55,545 --> 00:01:57,088 were coming to a close, 41 00:01:57,109 --> 00:01:58,786 and that we were about to move 42 00:01:58,807 --> 00:02:01,429 into one of those terrifying periods of history 43 00:02:01,450 --> 00:02:03,190 when power changes. 44 00:02:03,564 --> 00:02:05,993 And these are always periods, ladies and gentlemen, 45 00:02:06,014 --> 00:02:08,564 accompanied by turbulence, 46 00:02:08,585 --> 00:02:10,828 and all too often by blood. 47 00:02:10,848 --> 00:02:12,344 And my message for you 48 00:02:12,365 --> 00:02:14,907 is that I believe we are condemned, if you like, 49 00:02:14,942 --> 00:02:17,394 to live at just one of those moments in history 50 00:02:17,415 --> 00:02:18,926 when the gimbals upon which 51 00:02:18,947 --> 00:02:22,521 the established order of power is beginning to change 52 00:02:22,542 --> 00:02:24,744 and the new look of the world, 53 00:02:24,765 --> 00:02:27,061 the new powers that exist in the world, 54 00:02:27,082 --> 00:02:29,148 are beginning to take form. 55 00:02:29,169 --> 00:02:32,124 And these are - and we see it very clearly today - 56 00:02:32,145 --> 00:02:35,553 nearly always highly turbulent times, highly difficult times, 57 00:02:35,604 --> 00:02:37,603 and all too often very bloody times. 58 00:02:37,624 --> 00:02:40,275 By the way, it happens about once every century. 59 00:02:40,296 --> 00:02:42,581 You might argue that the last time it happened - 60 00:02:42,581 --> 00:02:45,712 and that's what Housman felt coming and what Churchill felt too - 61 00:02:45,712 --> 00:02:48,616 was that when power passed from the old nations, 62 00:02:48,637 --> 00:02:50,434 the old powers of Europe, 63 00:02:50,455 --> 00:02:52,831 across the Atlantic to the new emerging power 64 00:02:52,852 --> 00:02:54,307 of the United States of America - 65 00:02:54,328 --> 00:02:56,327 the beginning of the American century. 66 00:02:56,819 --> 00:02:58,767 And of course, into the vacuum 67 00:02:58,788 --> 00:03:01,602 where the too-old European powers used to be 68 00:03:01,623 --> 00:03:04,364 were played the two bloody catastrophes 69 00:03:04,385 --> 00:03:06,055 of the last century - 70 00:03:06,076 --> 00:03:08,825 the one in the first part and the one in the second part: 71 00:03:08,846 --> 00:03:10,174 the two great World Wars. 72 00:03:10,195 --> 00:03:13,194 Mao Zedong used to refer to them as the European civil wars, 73 00:03:13,194 --> 00:03:15,909 and it's probably a more accurate way of describing them. 74 00:03:15,909 --> 00:03:17,330 Well, ladies and gentlemen, 75 00:03:17,330 --> 00:03:19,180 we live at one of those times. 76 00:03:19,201 --> 00:03:22,200 But for us, I want to talk about three factors today. 77 00:03:22,414 --> 00:03:25,132 And the first of these, the first two of these, 78 00:03:25,153 --> 00:03:27,152 is about a shift in power. 79 00:03:27,604 --> 00:03:30,918 And the second is about some new dimension which I want to refer to, 80 00:03:30,939 --> 00:03:33,938 which has never quite happened in the way it's happening now. 81 00:03:33,959 --> 00:03:37,518 But let's talk about the shifts of power that are occurring to the world. 82 00:03:37,518 --> 00:03:38,842 And what is happening today 83 00:03:38,863 --> 00:03:40,604 is, in one sense, frightening 84 00:03:40,625 --> 00:03:43,303 because it's never happened before. 85 00:03:43,382 --> 00:03:45,381 We have seen lateral shifts of power - 86 00:03:45,402 --> 00:03:48,401 the power of Greece passed to Rome 87 00:03:48,422 --> 00:03:51,001 and the power shifts that occurred 88 00:03:51,022 --> 00:03:54,021 during the European civilizations - 89 00:03:55,500 --> 00:03:57,739 but we are seeing something slightly different. 90 00:03:57,740 --> 00:03:59,739 For power is not just moving laterally 91 00:03:59,740 --> 00:04:01,499 from nation to nation. 92 00:04:01,500 --> 00:04:03,245 It's also moving vertically. 93 00:04:03,266 --> 00:04:06,396 What's happening today is that the power that was encased, 94 00:04:06,417 --> 00:04:09,214 held to accountability, held to the rule of law, 95 00:04:09,235 --> 00:04:12,234 within the institution of the nation state 96 00:04:12,255 --> 00:04:15,476 has now migrated in very large measure onto the global stage. 97 00:04:16,100 --> 00:04:17,928 The globalization of power - 98 00:04:17,949 --> 00:04:20,013 we talk about the globalization of markets, 99 00:04:20,013 --> 00:04:22,894 but actually it's the globalization of real power. 100 00:04:23,504 --> 00:04:25,778 And where, at the nation state level 101 00:04:25,799 --> 00:04:27,738 that power is held to accountability 102 00:04:27,759 --> 00:04:29,452 subject to the rule of law, 103 00:04:29,473 --> 00:04:32,472 on the international stage it is not. 104 00:04:32,493 --> 00:04:36,017 The international and the global stage where power now resides: 105 00:04:36,017 --> 00:04:39,197 the power of the Internet, the power of the satellite broadcasters, 106 00:04:39,197 --> 00:04:41,560 the power of the money changers - 107 00:04:41,581 --> 00:04:43,970 this vast money-go-round 108 00:04:44,100 --> 00:04:47,676 that circulates now 32 times the amount of money necessary 109 00:04:48,100 --> 00:04:51,099 for the trade it's supposed to be there to finance - 110 00:04:51,100 --> 00:04:53,099 the money changers, if you like, 111 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:54,744 the financial speculators 112 00:04:54,765 --> 00:04:57,764 that have brought us all to our knees quite recently, 113 00:04:57,806 --> 00:04:59,854 the power of the multinational corporations 114 00:04:59,875 --> 00:05:01,824 now developing budgets 115 00:05:01,845 --> 00:05:04,213 often bigger than medium-sized countries. 116 00:05:05,100 --> 00:05:07,099 These live in a global space 117 00:05:07,100 --> 00:05:09,099 which is largely unregulated, 118 00:05:09,100 --> 00:05:11,680 not subject to the rule of law, 119 00:05:11,701 --> 00:05:13,940 and in which people may act free of constraint. 120 00:05:13,961 --> 00:05:16,701 Now that suits the powerful 121 00:05:16,750 --> 00:05:18,066 up to a moment. 122 00:05:18,087 --> 00:05:21,812 It's always suitable for those who have the most power 123 00:05:21,833 --> 00:05:24,423 to operate in spaces without constraint, 124 00:05:24,444 --> 00:05:27,443 but the lesson of history is that, sooner or later, 125 00:05:27,734 --> 00:05:29,733 unregulated space - 126 00:05:29,754 --> 00:05:31,753 space not subject to the rule of law - 127 00:05:32,100 --> 00:05:35,099 becomes populated, not just by the things you wanted - 128 00:05:35,100 --> 00:05:37,100 international trade, the Internet, etc. - 129 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:39,116 but also by the things you don't want - 130 00:05:39,116 --> 00:05:41,796 international criminality, international terrorism. 131 00:05:41,817 --> 00:05:43,967 The revelation of 9/11 132 00:05:44,100 --> 00:05:47,100 is that even if you are the most powerful nation on Earth, 133 00:05:49,100 --> 00:05:51,308 nevertheless, 134 00:05:51,329 --> 00:05:53,594 those who inhabit that space can attack you 135 00:05:53,615 --> 00:05:55,546 even in your most iconic of cities 136 00:05:55,567 --> 00:05:57,451 one bright September morning. 137 00:05:57,472 --> 00:05:59,896 It's said that something like 60 percent 138 00:05:59,917 --> 00:06:02,916 of the four million dollars that was taken to fund 9/11 139 00:06:02,937 --> 00:06:05,936 actually passed through the institutions of the Twin Towers 140 00:06:05,957 --> 00:06:07,956 which 9/11 destroyed. 141 00:06:08,500 --> 00:06:10,548 You see, our enemies also use this space - 142 00:06:10,549 --> 00:06:13,549 the space of mass travel, the Internet, satellite broadcasters - 143 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:16,834 to be able to get around their poison, 144 00:06:17,100 --> 00:06:19,796 which is about destroying our systems and our ways. 145 00:06:19,817 --> 00:06:21,192 Sooner or later, 146 00:06:21,213 --> 00:06:23,018 sooner or later, 147 00:06:23,235 --> 00:06:24,978 the rule of history 148 00:06:24,999 --> 00:06:26,998 is that where power goes 149 00:06:27,298 --> 00:06:29,751 governance must follow. 150 00:06:30,203 --> 00:06:32,720 And if it is therefore the case, as I believe it is, 151 00:06:32,741 --> 00:06:34,740 that one of the phenomenon of our time 152 00:06:34,761 --> 00:06:36,557 is the globalization of power, 153 00:06:36,578 --> 00:06:39,577 then it follows that one of the challenges of our time 154 00:06:39,598 --> 00:06:42,343 is to bring governance to the global space. 155 00:06:42,364 --> 00:06:45,295 And I believe that the decades ahead of us now 156 00:06:45,316 --> 00:06:48,748 will be to a greater or lesser extent turbulent 157 00:06:49,536 --> 00:06:52,535 the more or less we are able to achieve that aim: 158 00:06:52,556 --> 00:06:54,555 to bring governance to the global space. 159 00:06:54,592 --> 00:06:56,735 Now notice, I'm not talking about government. 160 00:06:56,756 --> 00:06:58,478 I'm not talking about setting up 161 00:06:58,499 --> 00:07:01,304 some global democratic institution. 162 00:07:01,325 --> 00:07:03,516 My own view, by the way, ladies and gentlemen, 163 00:07:03,537 --> 00:07:05,939 is that this is unlikely to be done 164 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:07,959 by spawning more U.N. institutions. 165 00:07:07,959 --> 00:07:10,558 If we didn't have the U.N., we'd have to invent it. 166 00:07:10,558 --> 00:07:12,460 The world needs an international forum. 167 00:07:12,460 --> 00:07:15,561 It needs a means by which you can legitimize international action. 168 00:07:15,711 --> 00:07:18,188 But when it comes to governance of the global space, 169 00:07:18,209 --> 00:07:20,473 my guess is this won't happen 170 00:07:20,494 --> 00:07:22,733 through the creation of more U.N. institutions. 171 00:07:22,930 --> 00:07:25,670 It will actually happen by the powerful coming together 172 00:07:25,691 --> 00:07:27,690 and making treaty-based systems, 173 00:07:27,711 --> 00:07:29,710 treaty-based agreements, 174 00:07:29,731 --> 00:07:31,396 to govern that global space. 175 00:07:31,417 --> 00:07:34,936 And if you look, you can see them happening, already beginning to emerge. 176 00:07:34,936 --> 00:07:37,681 The World Trade Organization: treaty-based organization, 177 00:07:37,702 --> 00:07:39,479 entirely treaty-based, 178 00:07:39,479 --> 00:07:43,139 and yet, powerful enough to hold even the most powerful, the United States, 179 00:07:43,139 --> 00:07:44,464 to account if necessary. 180 00:07:44,505 --> 00:07:46,855 Kyoto: the beginnings of struggling to create 181 00:07:46,897 --> 00:07:48,733 a treaty-based organization. 182 00:07:48,797 --> 00:07:50,156 The G20: 183 00:07:50,177 --> 00:07:52,886 we know now that we have to put together an institution 184 00:07:53,100 --> 00:07:55,099 which is capable of bringing governance 185 00:07:55,100 --> 00:07:58,099 to that financial space for financial speculation. 186 00:07:58,100 --> 00:08:01,099 And that's what the G20 is, a treaty-based institution. 187 00:08:01,500 --> 00:08:03,145 Now there's a problem there, 188 00:08:03,166 --> 00:08:05,226 and we'll come back to it in a minute, 189 00:08:05,226 --> 00:08:07,848 which is that if you bring the most powerful together 190 00:08:07,848 --> 00:08:10,120 to make the rules in treaty-based institutions, 191 00:08:10,141 --> 00:08:12,741 to fill that governance space, 192 00:08:13,500 --> 00:08:16,499 then what happens to the weak who are left out? 193 00:08:16,500 --> 00:08:17,997 And that's a big problem, 194 00:08:18,018 --> 00:08:20,017 and we'll return to it in just a second. 195 00:08:20,038 --> 00:08:21,815 So there's my first message, 196 00:08:21,836 --> 00:08:25,141 that if you are to pass through these turbulent times 197 00:08:25,500 --> 00:08:27,887 more or less turbulently, 198 00:08:27,908 --> 00:08:29,816 then our success in doing that 199 00:08:29,837 --> 00:08:32,260 will in large measure depend on our capacity 200 00:08:32,282 --> 00:08:34,164 to bring sensible governance 201 00:08:34,186 --> 00:08:36,184 to the global space. 202 00:08:36,206 --> 00:08:38,951 And watch that beginning to happen. 203 00:08:38,972 --> 00:08:40,323 My second point is, 204 00:08:40,345 --> 00:08:43,011 and I know I don't have to talk to an audience like this 205 00:08:43,033 --> 00:08:44,785 about such a thing, 206 00:08:44,920 --> 00:08:47,919 but power is not just shifting vertically, 207 00:08:47,940 --> 00:08:49,773 it's also shifting horizontally. 208 00:08:49,794 --> 00:08:53,424 You might argue that the story, the history of civilizations, 209 00:08:53,460 --> 00:08:56,459 has been civilizations gathered around seas - 210 00:08:56,480 --> 00:08:58,640 with the first ones around the Mediterranean, 211 00:08:58,661 --> 00:09:03,251 the more recent ones in the ascendents of Western power around the Atlantic. 212 00:09:03,500 --> 00:09:04,680 Well it seems to me 213 00:09:04,701 --> 00:09:08,030 that we're now seeing a fundamental shift of power, broadly speaking, 214 00:09:08,030 --> 00:09:10,720 away from nations gathered around the Atlantic [seaboard] 215 00:09:10,741 --> 00:09:13,312 to the nations gathered around the Pacific rim. 216 00:09:13,333 --> 00:09:15,073 Now that begins with economic power, 217 00:09:15,094 --> 00:09:16,919 but that's the way it always begins. 218 00:09:16,919 --> 00:09:20,170 You already begin to see the development of foreign policies, 219 00:09:20,191 --> 00:09:22,059 the augmentation of military budgets 220 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:24,900 occurring in the other growing powers in the world. 221 00:09:24,921 --> 00:09:26,162 I think actually 222 00:09:26,183 --> 00:09:29,479 this is not so much a shift from the West to the East; 223 00:09:29,500 --> 00:09:31,337 something different is happening. 224 00:09:31,358 --> 00:09:33,357 My guess is, for what it's worth, 225 00:09:33,378 --> 00:09:35,377 is that the United States will remain 226 00:09:35,398 --> 00:09:37,259 the most powerful nation on Earth 227 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:40,180 for the next 10 years, 15, 228 00:09:40,201 --> 00:09:43,200 but the context in which she holds her power 229 00:09:43,221 --> 00:09:46,220 has now radically altered; it has radically changed. 230 00:09:46,500 --> 00:09:48,499 We are coming out of 50 years, 231 00:09:48,500 --> 00:09:50,499 most unusual years, of history 232 00:09:50,500 --> 00:09:53,499 in which we have had a totally mono-polar world, 233 00:09:53,500 --> 00:09:55,499 in which every compass needle 234 00:09:55,500 --> 00:09:56,950 for or against 235 00:09:56,971 --> 00:09:59,970 has to be referenced by its position to Washington - 236 00:09:59,991 --> 00:10:02,991 a world bestrode by a single colossus. 237 00:10:03,563 --> 00:10:05,958 But that's not a usual case in history. 238 00:10:05,979 --> 00:10:07,716 In fact, what's now emerging 239 00:10:07,737 --> 00:10:09,736 is the much more normal case of history. 240 00:10:09,757 --> 00:10:11,518 You're beginning to see the emergence 241 00:10:11,539 --> 00:10:13,538 of a multi-polar world. 242 00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:14,962 Up until now, 243 00:10:14,983 --> 00:10:18,764 the United States has been the dominant feature of our world. 244 00:10:18,785 --> 00:10:20,958 They will remain the most powerful nation, 245 00:10:20,996 --> 00:10:22,975 but they will be the most powerful nation 246 00:10:22,996 --> 00:10:24,855 in an increasingly multi-polar world. 247 00:10:24,855 --> 00:10:28,115 And you begin to see the alternative centers of power building up - 248 00:10:28,115 --> 00:10:29,172 in China, of course, 249 00:10:29,193 --> 00:10:32,926 though my own guess is that China's ascent to greatness is not smooth. 250 00:10:33,099 --> 00:10:34,744 It's going to be quite grumpy 251 00:10:34,765 --> 00:10:37,116 as China begins to democratize her society 252 00:10:37,137 --> 00:10:39,116 after liberalizing her economy. 253 00:10:39,137 --> 00:10:41,680 But that's a subject of a different discussion. 254 00:10:41,701 --> 00:10:43,700 You see India, you see Brazil. 255 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:45,458 You see increasingly 256 00:10:45,479 --> 00:10:49,315 that the world now looks actually, for us Europeans, 257 00:10:49,372 --> 00:10:52,371 much more like Europe in the 19th century. 258 00:10:52,500 --> 00:10:54,218 Europe in the 19th century: 259 00:10:54,239 --> 00:10:56,525 a great British foreign secretary, Lord Canning, 260 00:10:56,546 --> 00:10:59,297 used to describe it as the "European concert of powers." 261 00:10:59,325 --> 00:11:01,360 There was a balance, a five-sided balance. 262 00:11:01,384 --> 00:11:03,469 Britain always played to the balance. 263 00:11:03,490 --> 00:11:05,961 If Paris got together with Berlin, 264 00:11:05,961 --> 00:11:09,242 Britain got together with Vienna and Rome to provide a counterbalance. 265 00:11:09,242 --> 00:11:10,342 Now notice, 266 00:11:10,363 --> 00:11:13,585 in a period which is dominated by a mono-polar world, 267 00:11:13,606 --> 00:11:15,061 you have fixed alliances - 268 00:11:15,082 --> 00:11:17,081 NATO, the Warsaw Pact. 269 00:11:17,102 --> 00:11:19,021 A fixed polarity of power 270 00:11:19,042 --> 00:11:20,894 means fixed alliances. 271 00:11:20,915 --> 00:11:22,914 But a multiple polarity of power 272 00:11:23,262 --> 00:11:25,261 means shifting and changing alliances. 273 00:11:25,282 --> 00:11:27,132 And that's the world we're coming into, 274 00:11:27,153 --> 00:11:29,069 in which we will increasingly see 275 00:11:29,090 --> 00:11:31,089 that our alliances are not fixed. 276 00:11:31,500 --> 00:11:34,199 Canning, the great British foreign secretary once said, 277 00:11:34,199 --> 00:11:35,799 "Britain has a common interest, 278 00:11:35,799 --> 00:11:37,323 but no common allies." 279 00:11:37,344 --> 00:11:39,343 And we will see increasingly 280 00:11:39,500 --> 00:11:40,820 that even we in the West 281 00:11:40,841 --> 00:11:42,840 will reach out, have to reach out, 282 00:11:42,861 --> 00:11:45,574 beyond the cozy circle of the Atlantic powers 283 00:11:45,595 --> 00:11:47,431 to make alliances with others 284 00:11:47,500 --> 00:11:49,804 if we want to get things done in the world. 285 00:11:49,825 --> 00:11:51,824 Note, that when we went into Libya, 286 00:11:52,047 --> 00:11:54,604 it was not good enough for the West to do it alone; 287 00:11:54,631 --> 00:11:56,144 we had to bring others in. 288 00:11:56,165 --> 00:11:58,628 We had to bring, in this case, the Arab League in. 289 00:11:58,649 --> 00:12:01,874 My guess is Iraq and Afghanistan are the last times 290 00:12:01,903 --> 00:12:04,595 when the West has tried to do it themselves, 291 00:12:04,616 --> 00:12:06,241 and we haven't succeeded. 292 00:12:06,262 --> 00:12:07,606 My guess 293 00:12:07,627 --> 00:12:11,471 is that we're reaching the beginning of the end of 400 years - 294 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:14,499 I say 400 years because it's the end of the Ottoman Empire - 295 00:12:14,500 --> 00:12:16,499 of the hegemony of Western power, 296 00:12:16,500 --> 00:12:19,500 Western institutions and Western values. 297 00:12:20,500 --> 00:12:23,499 You know, up until now, if the West got its act together, 298 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:24,907 it could propose and dispose 299 00:12:24,907 --> 00:12:26,787 in every corner of the world. 300 00:12:27,751 --> 00:12:29,499 But that's no longer true. 301 00:12:29,500 --> 00:12:31,499 Take the last financial crisis 302 00:12:31,500 --> 00:12:33,499 after the Second World War. 303 00:12:33,500 --> 00:12:34,878 The West got together - 304 00:12:34,899 --> 00:12:38,362 the Bretton Woods Institution, World Bank, International Monetary Fund - 305 00:12:38,362 --> 00:12:39,945 the problem solved. 306 00:12:39,945 --> 00:12:41,927 Now we have to call in others. 307 00:12:41,967 --> 00:12:43,807 Now we have to create the G20. 308 00:12:43,828 --> 00:12:46,497 Now we have to reach beyond the cozy circle 309 00:12:46,568 --> 00:12:48,354 of our Western friends. 310 00:12:48,375 --> 00:12:50,204 Let me make a prediction for you, 311 00:12:50,225 --> 00:12:52,950 which is probably even more startling. 312 00:12:52,971 --> 00:12:55,970 I suspect we are now reaching the end 313 00:12:55,991 --> 00:12:57,788 of 400 years 314 00:12:57,809 --> 00:12:59,808 when Western power was enough. 315 00:13:00,500 --> 00:13:02,500 People say to me, "The Chinese, of course, 316 00:13:02,520 --> 00:13:04,305 they'll never get themselves involved 317 00:13:04,305 --> 00:13:07,217 in peace-making, multilateral peace-making around the world." 318 00:13:07,217 --> 00:13:08,432 Oh yes? Why not? 319 00:13:08,453 --> 00:13:09,988 How many Chinese troops 320 00:13:10,009 --> 00:13:13,014 are serving under the blue beret, serving under the blue flag, 321 00:13:13,014 --> 00:13:15,386 serving under the U.N. command in the world today? 322 00:13:15,386 --> 00:13:16,414 3,700. 323 00:13:16,414 --> 00:13:18,612 How many Americans? 11. 324 00:13:18,633 --> 00:13:21,144 What is the largest naval contingent 325 00:13:21,174 --> 00:13:24,173 tackling the issue of Somali pirates? 326 00:13:24,475 --> 00:13:25,914 The Chinese naval contingent. 327 00:13:25,935 --> 00:13:28,434 Of course they are, they are a mercantilist nation. 328 00:13:28,434 --> 00:13:30,274 They want to keep the sea lanes open. 329 00:13:30,274 --> 00:13:32,964 Increasingly, we are going to have to do business 330 00:13:32,985 --> 00:13:35,984 with people with whom we do not share values, 331 00:13:36,005 --> 00:13:38,917 but with whom, for the moment, we share common interests. 332 00:13:38,938 --> 00:13:40,937 It's a whole new different way 333 00:13:40,958 --> 00:13:43,957 of looking at the world that is now emerging. 334 00:13:44,396 --> 00:13:46,178 And here's the third factor, 335 00:13:46,199 --> 00:13:48,584 which is totally different. 336 00:13:48,738 --> 00:13:50,737 Today in our modern world, 337 00:13:50,758 --> 00:13:52,375 because of the Internet, 338 00:13:52,396 --> 00:13:55,616 because of the kinds of things people have been talking about here, 339 00:13:55,616 --> 00:13:58,417 everything is connected to everything. 340 00:13:59,651 --> 00:14:01,650 We are now interdependent. 341 00:14:01,671 --> 00:14:03,670 We are now interlocked, 342 00:14:03,991 --> 00:14:05,990 as nations, as individuals, 343 00:14:06,011 --> 00:14:08,202 in a way which has never been the case before, 344 00:14:08,223 --> 00:14:10,111 never been the case before. 345 00:14:10,864 --> 00:14:13,127 The interrelationship of nations, 346 00:14:13,148 --> 00:14:14,994 well it's always existed. 347 00:14:15,015 --> 00:14:17,951 Diplomacy is about managing the interrelationship of nations. 348 00:14:17,951 --> 00:14:20,012 But now we are intimately locked together. 349 00:14:20,012 --> 00:14:21,967 You get swine flu in Mexico, 350 00:14:22,309 --> 00:14:24,405 it's a problem for Charles de Gaulle Airport 351 00:14:24,426 --> 00:14:25,775 24 hours later. 352 00:14:25,796 --> 00:14:28,442 Lehman Brothers goes down, the whole lot collapses. 353 00:14:28,463 --> 00:14:31,462 There are fires in the steppes of Russia, 354 00:14:31,682 --> 00:14:33,681 food riots in Africa. 355 00:14:33,702 --> 00:14:37,747 We are all now deeply, deeply, deeply interconnected. 356 00:14:38,500 --> 00:14:40,787 And what that means 357 00:14:40,808 --> 00:14:43,808 is the idea of a nation state acting alone, 358 00:14:45,190 --> 00:14:47,189 not connected with others, 359 00:14:47,210 --> 00:14:49,055 not working with others, 360 00:14:49,076 --> 00:14:51,075 is no longer a viable proposition. 361 00:14:51,095 --> 00:14:53,476 Because the actions of a nation state 362 00:14:53,497 --> 00:14:55,496 are neither confined to itself, 363 00:14:55,951 --> 00:14:58,436 nor is it sufficient for the nation state itself 364 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:00,173 to control its own territory, 365 00:15:00,194 --> 00:15:02,919 because the effects outside the nation state 366 00:15:02,940 --> 00:15:05,601 are now beginning to affect what happens inside them. 367 00:15:05,622 --> 00:15:07,427 I was a young soldier 368 00:15:07,448 --> 00:15:11,307 in the last of the small empire wars of Britain. 369 00:15:11,992 --> 00:15:13,991 At that time, the defense of my country 370 00:15:14,012 --> 00:15:16,759 was about one thing and one thing only: 371 00:15:16,780 --> 00:15:19,466 how strong was our army, how strong was our air force, 372 00:15:19,487 --> 00:15:22,132 how strong was our navy and how strong were our allies. 373 00:15:22,153 --> 00:15:24,344 That was when the enemy was outside the walls. 374 00:15:24,365 --> 00:15:26,601 Now the enemy is inside the walls. 375 00:15:26,622 --> 00:15:29,191 Now if I want to talk about the defense of my country, 376 00:15:29,191 --> 00:15:31,351 I have to speak to the Minister of Health 377 00:15:31,351 --> 00:15:34,061 because pandemic disease is a threat to my security, 378 00:15:34,082 --> 00:15:36,296 I have to speak to the Minister of Agriculture 379 00:15:36,296 --> 00:15:38,613 because food security is a threat to my security, 380 00:15:38,634 --> 00:15:41,634 I have to speak to the Minister of Industry 381 00:15:41,655 --> 00:15:44,931 because the fragility of our hi-tech infrastructure 382 00:15:44,952 --> 00:15:47,000 is now a point of attack for our enemies - 383 00:15:48,026 --> 00:15:49,499 as we see from cyber warfare - 384 00:15:49,500 --> 00:15:51,976 I have to speak to the Minister of Home Affairs 385 00:15:51,997 --> 00:15:54,405 because who has entered my country, 386 00:15:54,426 --> 00:15:57,230 who lives in that terraced house in that inner city 387 00:15:57,251 --> 00:15:59,743 has a direct effect on what happens in my country - 388 00:15:59,743 --> 00:16:02,584 as we in London saw in the 7/7 bombings. 389 00:16:03,158 --> 00:16:05,983 It's no longer the case that the security of a country 390 00:16:06,004 --> 00:16:09,004 is simply a matter for its soldiers and its ministry of defense. 391 00:16:09,025 --> 00:16:11,956 It's its capacity to lock together its institutions. 392 00:16:12,317 --> 00:16:15,028 And this tells you something very important. 393 00:16:15,049 --> 00:16:17,048 It tells you that, in fact, 394 00:16:17,069 --> 00:16:19,544 our governments, vertically constructed, 395 00:16:19,565 --> 00:16:22,673 constructed on the economic model of the Industrial Revolution - 396 00:16:22,673 --> 00:16:25,499 vertical hierarchy, specialization of tasks, 397 00:16:25,500 --> 00:16:27,286 command structures - 398 00:16:27,307 --> 00:16:29,306 have got the wrong structures completely. 399 00:16:29,327 --> 00:16:30,413 You in business know 400 00:16:30,434 --> 00:16:33,507 that the paradigm structure of our time, ladies and gentlemen, 401 00:16:33,507 --> 00:16:34,533 is the network. 402 00:16:34,697 --> 00:16:36,745 It's your capacity to network that matters, 403 00:16:37,163 --> 00:16:40,094 both within your governments and externally. 404 00:16:40,500 --> 00:16:42,499 So here is Ashdown's third law. 405 00:16:42,500 --> 00:16:45,434 By the way, don't ask me about Ashdown's first and second law 406 00:16:45,434 --> 00:16:47,278 because I haven't invented those yet; 407 00:16:47,278 --> 00:16:50,043 it always sounds better if there's a third law, doesn't it? 408 00:16:50,043 --> 00:16:52,182 Ashdown's third law is that in the modern age, 409 00:16:52,182 --> 00:16:54,299 where everything is connected to everything, 410 00:16:54,299 --> 00:16:57,033 the most important thing about what you can do 411 00:16:57,068 --> 00:16:59,110 is what you can do with others. 412 00:16:59,131 --> 00:17:01,322 The most important bit about your structure - 413 00:17:01,322 --> 00:17:04,227 whether you're a government, whether you're an army regiment, 414 00:17:04,227 --> 00:17:05,665 whether you're a business - 415 00:17:05,665 --> 00:17:07,817 is your docking points, your inter-connectors, 416 00:17:07,817 --> 00:17:09,746 your capacity to network with others. 417 00:17:09,746 --> 00:17:11,499 You understand that in industry; 418 00:17:11,520 --> 00:17:13,021 governments don't. 419 00:17:13,800 --> 00:17:15,800 But now one final thing. 420 00:17:15,820 --> 00:17:18,664 If it is the case, ladies and gentlemen - and it is - 421 00:17:18,693 --> 00:17:20,377 that we are now locked together 422 00:17:20,398 --> 00:17:22,828 in a way that has never been quite the same before, 423 00:17:23,123 --> 00:17:26,123 then it's also the case that we share a destiny with each other. 424 00:17:26,563 --> 00:17:29,562 Suddenly and for the very first time, 425 00:17:29,583 --> 00:17:32,582 collective defense, the thing that has dominated us 426 00:17:32,896 --> 00:17:34,895 as the concept of securing our nations, 427 00:17:35,500 --> 00:17:37,007 is no longer enough. 428 00:17:37,007 --> 00:17:38,185 It used to be the case 429 00:17:38,185 --> 00:17:41,252 that if my tribe was more powerful than their tribe, I was safe; 430 00:17:41,252 --> 00:17:44,380 if my country was more powerful than their country, I was safe; 431 00:17:44,380 --> 00:17:47,864 my alliance, like NATO, was more powerful than their alliance, I was safe. 432 00:17:47,864 --> 00:17:49,319 It is no longer the case. 433 00:17:49,319 --> 00:17:52,247 The advent of the interconnectedness 434 00:17:52,268 --> 00:17:54,232 and of the weapons of mass destruction 435 00:17:54,232 --> 00:17:55,893 means that, increasingly, 436 00:17:55,894 --> 00:17:57,893 I share a destiny with my enemy. 437 00:17:58,000 --> 00:17:59,398 When I was a diplomat 438 00:17:59,419 --> 00:18:02,418 negotiating the disarmament treaties with the Soviet Union 439 00:18:02,603 --> 00:18:04,602 in Geneva in the 1970s, 440 00:18:04,623 --> 00:18:06,622 we succeeded because we understood 441 00:18:06,643 --> 00:18:08,642 we shared a destiny with them. 442 00:18:08,713 --> 00:18:11,712 Collective security is not enough. 443 00:18:12,159 --> 00:18:13,914 Peace has come to Northern Ireland 444 00:18:13,935 --> 00:18:17,112 because both sides realized that the zero-sum game couldn't work. 445 00:18:17,139 --> 00:18:19,779 They shared a destiny with their enemies. 446 00:18:19,808 --> 00:18:22,429 One of the great barriers to peace in the Middle East 447 00:18:22,429 --> 00:18:25,439 is that both sides, both Israel and, I think, the Palestinians, 448 00:18:25,470 --> 00:18:26,701 do not understand 449 00:18:26,722 --> 00:18:29,288 that they share a collective destiny. 450 00:18:29,627 --> 00:18:31,626 And so suddenly, ladies and gentlemen, 451 00:18:31,647 --> 00:18:33,296 what has been the proposition 452 00:18:33,317 --> 00:18:36,316 of visionaries and poets down the ages 453 00:18:36,508 --> 00:18:38,926 becomes something we have to take seriously 454 00:18:38,947 --> 00:18:40,878 as a matter of public policy. 455 00:18:41,047 --> 00:18:44,046 I started with a poem, I'll end with one. 456 00:18:44,067 --> 00:18:46,505 The great poem of John Donne's. 457 00:18:47,047 --> 00:18:50,047 "Send not for whom the bell tolls." 458 00:18:51,079 --> 00:18:53,157 The poem is called "No Man is an Island." 459 00:18:53,157 --> 00:18:54,671 And it goes: 460 00:18:55,253 --> 00:18:57,881 "Every man's death affected me, 461 00:18:57,913 --> 00:19:00,239 for I am involved in mankind, 462 00:19:00,500 --> 00:19:02,499 send not to ask 463 00:19:02,500 --> 00:19:04,499 for whom the bell tolls, 464 00:19:04,500 --> 00:19:06,499 it tolls for thee." 465 00:19:06,500 --> 00:19:09,499 For John Donne, a recommendation of morality. 466 00:19:10,084 --> 00:19:11,499 For us, I think, 467 00:19:11,500 --> 00:19:14,054 part of the equation for our survival. 468 00:19:14,500 --> 00:19:15,619 Thank you very much. 469 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:18,161 (Applause)