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Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.00,0:00:06.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,>>Prof. Frank R. Baumgartner: Punctuated equilibrium theory comes out of the study of evolution and biology,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.17,0:00:08.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Brian Jones and I used it.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.62,0:00:13.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Other people have used it, but we developed a book where we used it as the
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.08,0:00:17.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,guiding framework or the guiding theory for our explanation of policy change,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.40,0:00:20.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that was a book that we published in 1993.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.76,0:00:25.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we were interested in analyzing over long periods of time,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.72,0:00:28.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so for example maybe 40 or 50 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.50,0:00:35.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of policy change why were certain policies for generations at a time stable,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.40,0:00:39.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and people thought that maybe they were immovable;
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.21,0:00:42.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for example, smoking and tobacco policy in the United States.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.51,0:00:48.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The tobacco industry was often seen as the single most influential lobby in America,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.68,0:00:50.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it would never be taken down because it
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.68,0:00:55.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,had so many connections to farmers and tax receipts that the government got,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.98,0:00:58.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it was a huge export commodity for the US,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.99,0:01:01.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so people thought that that was an example
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.15,0:01:04.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like they think of the National Rifle Association
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.27,0:01:07.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now as the most influential interest group in American politics.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.98,0:01:12.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But all of a sudden, finally things flipped on the tobacco industry,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.19,0:01:19.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the prevailing understanding of tobacco went from being glamourous to being catastrophic.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.59,0:01:21.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so today throughout the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.43,0:01:25.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at least the Western world, we see policies that are much more anti-tobacco,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.81,0:01:28.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that was the once upon time that was unimaginable.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.83,0:01:32.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So our book was published in ‘93,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.54,0:01:35.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that’s what it really focused on – how could
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.46,0:01:41.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we explain the unexpected shifts in the political fortunes of major American industries.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.68,0:01:46.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, students should use many theories,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.59,0:01:49.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I think our theory is of interest because
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.58,0:01:57.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it poses as a question something that other people sometimes take for granted,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.05,0:01:59.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is why are certain industries powerful,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.20,0:02:02.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what is the basis of their power.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.77,0:02:05.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we propose that there’s really two bases of power,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.83,0:02:07.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one is an institutional structure.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.71,0:02:16.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So supporting government agencies that promote a certain industry and with smoking,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.76,0:02:20.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can think of that as once upon a time it
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.38,0:02:23.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was the Department of Agriculture in the United States;
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.52,0:02:26.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or with nuclear power in the 1950s and 1960s,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:26.99,0:02:30.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was very powerfully supported by its regulatory agency.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.21,0:02:34.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There’s any number of these industries.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.64,0:02:38.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the other side of the equation and the other
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.42,0:02:42.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,part of the supporting system is a very powerful supporting idea,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.62,0:02:45.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what we called in our first book the policy image,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.63,0:02:51.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but which people often refer to as the frame or the issue definition.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.71,0:02:56.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when that policy image is associated with things like patriotism,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.66,0:03:02.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or economic growth, or entrepreneurialism,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.35,0:03:08.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the American way of life, glamour,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.66,0:03:14.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like cigarettes, then that combination of a very powerful supporting
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.17,0:03:22.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,image and an institutional structure that prohibits or inhibits the participation of critics,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.85,0:03:24.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then that can be a very powerful thing.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.21,0:03:30.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On the other hand, those things can crumble almost as quickly as
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.52,0:03:33.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they were created because once the policy image
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.13,0:03:36.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,begins to change and people start to take a critical
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.58,0:03:39.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,view of something that they used to look at very favorably,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.23,0:03:42.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then the political calculus changes,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.73,0:03:47.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and people who were not previously involved in the issue demand a seat at the table,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.98,0:03:51.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that’s what we saw in the cases of – well,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.27,0:03:52.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the cases that we studied.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.37,0:03:55.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We saw that they were able to be attacked successfully
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.35,0:04:01.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,\Neven though 10 years previously they were considered to be extremely powerful.