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The subject I'd like to talk about today

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is the United States beyond Donald Trump,

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or a little bit more precise,

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America is becoming
progressively progressive.

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I'm not kidding you;
it's really happening.

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Lady Liberty is looking down
on Ellis Island,

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the famous place in New York Harbor

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where millions of Americans
arrived in a new homeland.

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The first waves of immigrants came,
of course, from Europe:

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England - for example -
Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands,

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and, for example, Germany.

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This is a German family,

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and this gentleman
arrived in 1885, in New York

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and became a very successful
businessman, Friedrich Trump.

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Yes,

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the grandfather of the president
of the United States.

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And he became a successful businessman.

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He ran a hotel and a brothel

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for gold miners on the West Coast.

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So food, booze, and sex
made the Trump family rich.

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And that's no fake news, I'll tell you.

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(Laughter)

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Welcoming all these newcomers

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was a matter of principle
for the United States.

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It became a nation of immigrants.

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It became the core
of the success of America.

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And you have to wonder,

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What would Lady Liberty think

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about the president's sometimes
nasty discussions about immigration?

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Let's read from
the inscription on the statue:

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"Give me your tired, your poor,
your huddled masses,

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yearning to breathe free.

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I lift my lamp beside the golden door."

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That's the principle;
that's the optimistic message here.

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But Lady Liberty may be not so happy
with the discussions nowadays

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with the president
talking about rapists and criminals,

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and I quote the president saying,

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"You wouldn't believe
how bad some of these people are.

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These aren't people.
These are animals."

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A little perspective here:

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The Statue of Liberty
was built around 1870.

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The United States had
about 50 million people at the time.

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Germany, the home country
of the Trump family -

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and the other bigger
European countries as well -

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had about 40 million people.

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Fast forward.

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Germany doubled in population -
a little over 80 million now.

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The United States grew
from 50 to 330 million.

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It made the USA truly a superpower -

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militarily, economically, and culturally.

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And this TED Talk, maybe, is part of this;

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I mean, it's an American
initiative, after all.

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So Mr. President,
talking about immigrants,

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if you want to know
what made America great,

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here's your answer:

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the success of America
would have not been possible,

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America would never have been great

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without all these newcomers.

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One thing President Trump
does not like about immigrants:

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once they become citizen -

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and he wants to prevent these folks
from becoming citizen,

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but, you know, a lot of them
do become citizens -

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most of them vote for Democrats.

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So, these immigrants
are part of a more progressive America,

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part of my story about
a more progressive America.

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One of the - what I call in my book -

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silent revolutions
that shape a new America.

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Take Colorado.

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This is part of this story, this state,
one of the Mountain States.

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Colorado is very successful.

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It made the switch
from the 19th to the 20th century -

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cowboys and gold miners -

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up into the 21st century,

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with a highly educated population,
rapid population growth,

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and very successful.

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And immigrants are part
of this success story of Colorado,

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but one third of Denver's population,
for example, is from Latino descent.

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Another thing - Colorado simply ignored

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the wishes and opinions
of conservative politicians in Washington,

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and they were one of the first states
to officially legalize marijuana.

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One day you go to jail
for simple possession,

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the next day you can buy it freely.

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And my wife and I traveled
for about a month in Colorado,

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I mean, these dispensaries -

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in Holland, we call them coffee shops -

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dispensaries are
all over the place, truly.

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Another example of progressive thinking
in the state of Colorado -

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and you see it in more states:
Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico -

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inmates training wild horses.

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Isn't that interesting?

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The approach is totally different
than what we've seen in the past.

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It's a different approach

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in the war on crime we saw,
for example, in the 90s.

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And these criminals truly learned
something they never learned before:

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being patient, being caring, being gentle.

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If you're not patient, caring, and gentle,
you will never tame these wild horses.

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And these guys generally grew up

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without patience, without caring,
without gentleness.

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And these projects in various states,
Colorado being one of them,

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are extremely successful.

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The ultimate goal
is trying to get recidivism down,

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make sure these folks
do not commit more crimes

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and end up back in jail,

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and they are successful.

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Recidivism is way down
for the people who ran this program.

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You have to realize

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that the prison population
in the United States

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doubled in the last 25 years.

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Republicans and Democrats signed on
to the gospel of "tough on crime" -

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I mean, lock them up
and throw away the key.

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That was the idea.

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Prisoners were humiliated,
and prison terms were extremely long.

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You have to ask yourself,

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Does this prepare criminals
for a safe and good return into society?

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70% end up committing crimes again
and end up in jail again.

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So it's a failing system.

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And to be honest, folks,
President Bill Clinton signed -

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this was President Clinton. I lost him -

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in 1994, signed a crime bill,

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a crime bill because of
the crack cocaine epidemic in the US,

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and a crime - here it is -
and a crime epidemic as well.

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Bill Clinton now
deeply regrets this crime bill

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because it created
a generation of incarceration.

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It ruined hundreds of thousands of lives
of inmates and their loved ones.

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And right now, we see
a totally different approach.

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President Barack Obama
started a process of new legislation,

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and he used the shift in public opinion
in the United States,

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a different way of thinking
when it comes to the justice system -

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more support for rehabilitation efforts,
better living conditions.

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Thousands of prisoners, mostly nonviolent,
have been released earlier.

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It's truly a new way of thinking;

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it's one of the silent
revolutions I write about.

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And interestingly,

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this initiative by Barack Obama
was endorsed by President Trump.

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And he deserves praise
for supporting this effort,

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the First Step Act
to give people a second chance.

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And it's highly unusual

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to have consensus in Washington
between Democrats and Republicans.

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Listen to Donald Trump.

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(Video) Donald Trump:
This landmark legislation

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will give countless current and former
prisoners a second chance at life

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and a new opportunity to contribute

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to their communities,
their states, and their nations.

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Who wants to come up?

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Charles Groenhuijsen:
And it's true, and as I already said,

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it's already in effect

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and a lot of states are probably
going to follow the federal government.

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It's a modest first step,

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but it does make life slightly better

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after a long period of harshness
and humiliation for prisoners -

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a new way of thinking with broad support
among the American population.

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This is one of those silent revolutions
that creates a new America.

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"We the people," folks,

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the famous first words
of the US Constitution,

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they are essential in this transition.

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Changes do not start -

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The changes I just described

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do not start in Washington
or state capitals.

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We the people make change,
and they truly have a long wish list.

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On top of their wish list -
climate change.

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And there's a lot to worry about
when it comes to climate change.

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We talk about it all the time,
and rightfully so.

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But if you look at the situation
in the US right now,

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there's a broad alliance
of citizens, lobby groups,

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climate activists,
and CEOs of big companies

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who say, "Enough! We have to do
something about climate" -

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a highly unusual coalition.

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180 CEOs of big companies,

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like Apple, Amazon, Bank of America,
and General Motors,

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sign on to this new approach.

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This is unprecedented
and makes me hopeful.

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And yes, President Donald Trump
cancelled the Paris Accord,

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he got out of Paris Climate Accord,

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but at the same time,

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this coalition of citizens,
states, and CEOs:

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"Mr. President,
where you fail, we fill in.

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We the people want really another America,
and not your America, Mr. President."

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That's going on all over the place.

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This is unprecedented.

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Another huge change -
and you probably know about it -

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I mean, eventually, the United States
legalized gay marriage.

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I've lived in the US for 23 years.

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When you'd said to me 15, 20 years ago,

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"Charles, you know, by 2015,
we will have gay marriage legalized,"

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I would have said, "You're nuts.
It's not going to happen."

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And it was a tough fight.

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I remember 2004.

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George W. Bush was running for reelection

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and pushed for a constitutional amendment,

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saying marriage is
between a man and a woman

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and that's it.

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The very same year,

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the state of Massachusetts

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was the first state
to legalize gay marriage,

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and from then on, state after state
legalized gay marriage.

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Not the people in Washington
brought about the change.

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No, the people in states,
we the people made the change.

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Up until 2015,

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with the landmark decision
of the Supreme Court saying,

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"Yes, nationwide legalization
of gay marriage,"

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a huge victory for the gay movement,

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and a blistering defeat
for Republicans and evangelicals -

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they lost.

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The movement for gay marriage
was unstoppable -

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we the people won.

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Another one.

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We're not there yet
when it comes to gun control,

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but there are some facts
that can make you cautiously optimistic.

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Public opinion is soundly in favor
of more strict gun laws, really.

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The clear majority of the United States
and American people want it.

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Republicans and President Trump
want the opposite.

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I mean, President Trump made promises
and he didn't live up to them.

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The gun control lobby is strong, folks.

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And we see the same thing
we saw with gay marriage,

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and we saw it with
immigration, for example,

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and the climate crisis -

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a broad coalition saying,
"We want something else."

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There's a statement by 145 CEOs
saying we need change.

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Let me quote from their statement.

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They say, "This is a public health crisis
that demands urgent action.

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Gun violence in America
is not inevitable;

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it's preventable."

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And a great example of this switch
among, you know, CEOs is Walmart.

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You may remember El Paso,
the summer of 2019,

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terrible shooting
with 22 people killed, 24 injured.

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Shortly after the shooting,

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the CEO, Doug McMillon, of Walmart
came out with a statement

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and he said, "This is - "

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And he was talking about their gun sales,
the sales of ammunition.

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They make a lot of money
on selling this stuff.

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And he said, "The status quo
is unacceptable."

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Imagine - this is Walmart.

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They've 5,000 stores nationwide,
and primarily in rural areas,

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and rural areas
are mostly Republican territory.

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And this guy says this is unacceptable,

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we have to change
the way we deal with this issue.

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Also, still a long way to go
when it comes to inequality -

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rich and poor.

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Top managers in US companies

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made, in 1965, about 20 times
as much as the average worker,

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which is considerable difference, right?

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Right now, it's more than 300 times
the amount the average worker makes.

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In the last 10 years,
federal minimum wage hasn't been raised.

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Homelessness is up.

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And more and more people
and more and more millennials

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primarily say, "Enough.
We have to change this."

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00:13:08,089 --> 00:13:10,747
There is a force for change.

248
00:13:11,637 --> 00:13:13,353
When I did the research for my book,

249
00:13:13,353 --> 00:13:16,653
I came across a piece of research
that really stunned me.

250
00:13:17,063 --> 00:13:19,023
They looked at zip codes,

251
00:13:19,463 --> 00:13:22,379
and they looked at life expectancy
in various zip codes:

252
00:13:22,379 --> 00:13:23,612
what's the longest living

253
00:13:23,612 --> 00:13:26,764
and what's the shortest living
ZIP code in Chicago.

254
00:13:26,964 --> 00:13:30,527
Well, this is clearly, of course,
a difference between rich and poor, right?

255
00:13:30,527 --> 00:13:32,580
In the rich zip codes,

256
00:13:32,580 --> 00:13:37,450
people live, on average, 30 years longer

257
00:13:38,260 --> 00:13:40,368
than in the poorest zip code -

258
00:13:40,368 --> 00:13:42,327
30 years difference.

259
00:13:42,617 --> 00:13:45,000
And again, a lot of people say, "Enough!"

260
00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,119
I want to share with you
two more big developments in the US,

261
00:13:48,119 --> 00:13:51,415
and both seem to be bad news
for Republicans.

262
00:13:51,415 --> 00:13:54,524
First of all, decline of religion.

263
00:13:54,524 --> 00:13:56,217
It's not a very popular subject.

264
00:13:56,217 --> 00:13:59,506
Most people don't want to talk about it,
but we have to talk about it.

265
00:13:59,506 --> 00:14:02,812
Between 6 and 10 thousand churches
closed every year;

266
00:14:04,182 --> 00:14:08,281
particularly millennials, young people,
leave the church in droves.

267
00:14:08,831 --> 00:14:10,313
They don't want to be a member.

268
00:14:10,313 --> 00:14:12,451
They don't like
the institution of the church.

269
00:14:12,451 --> 00:14:14,745
They leave religion.
They're no longer religious.

270
00:14:14,745 --> 00:14:16,715
And this is important politically

271
00:14:16,715 --> 00:14:19,129
since we have seen
in the last 30, 40 years

272
00:14:19,129 --> 00:14:21,780
of very powerful alliance

273
00:14:21,780 --> 00:14:25,595
between Republicans on one side
and white evangelicals -

274
00:14:25,595 --> 00:14:27,362
black churches is a different story -

275
00:14:27,362 --> 00:14:30,289
between Republicans
and white evangelicals.

276
00:14:30,289 --> 00:14:35,106
This powerful political alliance
brought us Ronald Reagan;

277
00:14:35,306 --> 00:14:37,938
George Bush, the older George Bush;
and George W Bush;

278
00:14:37,938 --> 00:14:40,379
and it brought us Donald Trump.

279
00:14:40,869 --> 00:14:46,408
Trump would not be in the White House
without the support of white evangelicals.

280
00:14:46,668 --> 00:14:49,578
And their numbers are declining rapidly.

281
00:14:50,018 --> 00:14:53,465
Let me show you a couple of books
that came out about this phenomenon.

282
00:14:53,465 --> 00:14:55,886
So yeah, if you want to do
some reading here:

283
00:14:56,276 --> 00:15:00,939
[The End of White Christian America];

284
00:15:00,939 --> 00:15:04,967
another one - The Fall
of the Evangelical Nation;

285
00:15:04,967 --> 00:15:07,484
or this one, R.I.P. G.O.P.

286
00:15:07,484 --> 00:15:09,182
GOP is the Republican Party.

287
00:15:09,182 --> 00:15:11,013
And look at the subtitle here:

288
00:15:11,013 --> 00:15:14,025
"How the new America
is dooming the Republicans."

289
00:15:14,025 --> 00:15:15,030
And full disclosure -

290
00:15:15,030 --> 00:15:16,519
Stan Greenberg, who wrote this,

291
00:15:16,519 --> 00:15:19,280
is a democratic pollster
who used to work for Bill Clinton.

292
00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:21,949
But I think his numbers
are quite compelling, actually.

293
00:15:22,079 --> 00:15:24,992
This is a huge development,
politically very important.

294
00:15:24,992 --> 00:15:27,969
Another one -
immigration and diversity.

295
00:15:29,638 --> 00:15:31,338
There's a widespread misconception

296
00:15:31,338 --> 00:15:35,407
about what people, American people,
think about immigration.

297
00:15:35,407 --> 00:15:38,080
People tend to think most Americans
want less immigrants.

298
00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:39,269
No, it's not true.

299
00:15:39,269 --> 00:15:42,130
Yes, one-third of America
wants less immigrants -

300
00:15:42,130 --> 00:15:43,940
you can look it up in Gallup.

301
00:15:44,390 --> 00:15:46,983
One third says,
"Let's keep it the way it is,"

302
00:15:47,133 --> 00:15:49,713
and one third says,
"Let's bring in more people.

303
00:15:49,913 --> 00:15:52,169
We are a nation of immigrants, after all."

304
00:15:52,499 --> 00:15:55,215
So that's different
than a lot of people think.

305
00:15:55,215 --> 00:15:59,188
I want to show you - I don't have
graphs and maps except this one.

306
00:15:59,516 --> 00:16:02,942
What you see here, top right -

307
00:16:02,942 --> 00:16:04,432
the darker a state,

308
00:16:04,432 --> 00:16:07,457
the higher the percentage
of people from minorities,

309
00:16:07,457 --> 00:16:11,299
and the darkest color of blue
is 50+ percent minority.

310
00:16:11,299 --> 00:16:15,198
That's in 2014, with a number of states,
particularly in the south.

311
00:16:15,198 --> 00:16:18,415
If you look bottom left,
that's the situation in 2040,

312
00:16:18,415 --> 00:16:21,772
and the other one on the right
at the bottom, 2060.

313
00:16:21,772 --> 00:16:25,659
If I were a Republican,
this would keep me awake at night

314
00:16:25,659 --> 00:16:30,667
because minorities, folks,
vote predominantly Democratic.

315
00:16:30,937 --> 00:16:33,658
We've seen it all along,
and even in the last elections,

316
00:16:33,658 --> 00:16:35,003
2018, midterms,

317
00:16:35,003 --> 00:16:36,743
and in 2016, presidential elections.

318
00:16:36,743 --> 00:16:40,509
Yes, minorities do vote
progressive on average.

319
00:16:40,509 --> 00:16:45,847
So if their numbers increase,
the Republicans lose votes left and right,

320
00:16:45,847 --> 00:16:47,885
particularly on the right of course.

321
00:16:49,106 --> 00:16:50,662
The question is, of course,

322
00:16:51,512 --> 00:16:57,514
Why did the Republicans miss,
eventually, the exit to the 21st century?

323
00:16:57,514 --> 00:17:00,279
They're more or less stuck in the 1980s.

324
00:17:00,279 --> 00:17:03,678
And I can show that clearly
by these pictures.

325
00:17:04,138 --> 00:17:07,436
This is a collection

326
00:17:07,436 --> 00:17:11,807
of newly elected Republican members
of the House of Representatives,

327
00:17:11,807 --> 00:17:14,300
elected in the midterm elections in 2018.

328
00:17:14,300 --> 00:17:16,228
Look at the diversity here, folks.

329
00:17:17,218 --> 00:17:20,472
So we have, on the bottom left,
a guy with an eyepatch;

330
00:17:20,472 --> 00:17:21,572
(Laughter)

331
00:17:21,672 --> 00:17:24,507
and we have on the bottom right,
a woman - yes! a woman,

332
00:17:25,337 --> 00:17:27,301
white middle-aged, but still.

333
00:17:27,301 --> 00:17:31,529
Same picture, Democrats newly elected -
that looks quite different, does it?

334
00:17:32,049 --> 00:17:35,406
So this is the difference between
the two parties as we speak, folks:

335
00:17:36,279 --> 00:17:40,999
top left, 20th century;
bottom right, 21st century.

336
00:17:41,709 --> 00:17:43,565
And you can ask yourself, I mean,

337
00:17:44,073 --> 00:17:46,782
"Do the Republicans
simply ignore all this change,

338
00:17:46,782 --> 00:17:48,971
or do they have some kind
of a counter-attack?"

339
00:17:48,971 --> 00:17:52,879
Yes, there is a counter-attack,
and this is part of the counter-attack:

340
00:17:52,879 --> 00:17:58,667
The radical left and the socialism
goes mainstream -

341
00:17:59,189 --> 00:18:00,299
Fox News.

342
00:18:00,601 --> 00:18:01,742
They blame the Democrats

343
00:18:01,742 --> 00:18:04,266
for being radical and being
socialist and everything -

344
00:18:04,266 --> 00:18:06,436
the surge in socialism.

345
00:18:06,436 --> 00:18:10,793
And I want to play a little clip
with this guy, Glenn Beck.

346
00:18:10,793 --> 00:18:14,332
He is one of the famous conservative
talk show hosts in the United States,

347
00:18:14,332 --> 00:18:18,591
and he was interviewed
by another guy, Sean Hannity.

348
00:18:18,591 --> 00:18:20,751
Oh, this doesn't look totally right.

349
00:18:21,101 --> 00:18:23,543
And they were talking
about the rise of socialism.

350
00:18:23,973 --> 00:18:26,684
And Sean Hannity
asked Glenn Beck, you know,

351
00:18:26,684 --> 00:18:30,239
"What's the antidote? What can we do
about this rise in socialism?"

352
00:18:30,239 --> 00:18:32,549
And Glenn Beck says,
"Well, I'm not really sure,"

353
00:18:32,549 --> 00:18:34,449
but listen what he says after that.

354
00:18:35,409 --> 00:18:37,357
(Video) Sean Hannity:
What's the antidote?

355
00:18:37,357 --> 00:18:38,880
That's what I wanted to ask you.

356
00:18:38,880 --> 00:18:41,120
Glenn Beck: I don't know
if there's an antidote.

357
00:18:41,120 --> 00:18:42,309
But I will tell you this.

358
00:18:42,309 --> 00:18:45,819
If the Republicans don't win
in this next election,

359
00:18:45,819 --> 00:18:50,183
I think we are officially at the end
of the country as we know it.

360
00:18:50,183 --> 00:18:53,782
We may not survive
even if we win, but we -

361
00:18:54,072 --> 00:18:57,880
CG: We may see the end of the country
as we know it - isn't that interesting?

362
00:18:57,880 --> 00:19:02,597
Apparently, their system and their,
you know, their way of thinking,

363
00:19:02,597 --> 00:19:05,375
way of doing things is quite vulnerable.

364
00:19:05,915 --> 00:19:07,348
What about Donald Trump?

365
00:19:07,348 --> 00:19:10,067
I mean, he plays the same tune, in a way.

366
00:19:10,067 --> 00:19:11,740
He's also talking the same words.

367
00:19:11,740 --> 00:19:16,516
Listen to Trump saying, also,
the end of the country as we know it.

368
00:19:16,516 --> 00:19:17,853
Listen.

369
00:19:18,173 --> 00:19:22,038
(Video) Donald Trump: they want
to destroy our country as we know it -

370
00:19:22,038 --> 00:19:23,713
not acceptable.

371
00:19:23,713 --> 00:19:25,493
It's not going to happen.

372
00:19:25,973 --> 00:19:27,489
CG: So will he succeed?

373
00:19:27,489 --> 00:19:31,802
His supporters, ladies and gentlemen,
like to see him on Mount Rushmore,

374
00:19:31,802 --> 00:19:33,985
you know, among George Washington,

375
00:19:33,985 --> 00:19:36,794
Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt,
and Abram Lincoln.

376
00:19:36,794 --> 00:19:40,213
His opponents say, "Well, rather not."

377
00:19:40,483 --> 00:19:44,320
His supporters are sure
he's going to be reelected in 2020.

378
00:19:44,320 --> 00:19:48,702
His opponents have
the "Lock him up" slogan ready.

379
00:19:50,820 --> 00:19:52,818
I haven't talked a lot about the election.

380
00:19:52,818 --> 00:19:56,393
But it's important to suppose
Donald Trump gets reelected -

381
00:19:56,393 --> 00:19:57,536
it's not impossible.

382
00:19:57,536 --> 00:19:58,775
You have to realize

383
00:19:58,775 --> 00:20:00,914
that the developments
I just described for you

384
00:20:00,914 --> 00:20:02,129
are not going to stop.

385
00:20:02,144 --> 00:20:07,216
Yes, progress will slow down,
but it will not stop.

386
00:20:08,056 --> 00:20:09,868
It's hard to predict what will happen,

387
00:20:09,868 --> 00:20:11,451
but that will be my prediction.

388
00:20:11,854 --> 00:20:14,397
I was talking to an optimistic
Democrat the other day,

389
00:20:14,397 --> 00:20:16,163
and he said, "Charles, you know what?

390
00:20:16,163 --> 00:20:18,113
Eventually, maybe 5 or 10 years from now,

391
00:20:18,113 --> 00:20:20,212
we'll look back
on all this nonsense and say,

392
00:20:20,212 --> 00:20:23,312
'Donald Trump was the best thing
that ever happened to me.'"

393
00:20:23,582 --> 00:20:25,403
I'm not sure, but it could be.

394
00:20:25,403 --> 00:20:28,991
The younger generation, folks,
the leaders of tomorrow

395
00:20:29,251 --> 00:20:31,769
will not take no for an answer.

396
00:20:31,769 --> 00:20:34,300
They will be - these Millennials
and Generation Z -

397
00:20:34,300 --> 00:20:39,711
they will be, rather sooner than later,
the new ruling majority.

398
00:20:39,945 --> 00:20:42,478
That's the perspective we have.

399
00:20:42,935 --> 00:20:44,317
And yes,

400
00:20:45,739 --> 00:20:48,440
it could be the end
of the country as we know it.

401
00:20:48,704 --> 00:20:49,886
Conservatives hate it;

402
00:20:49,886 --> 00:20:53,393
progressives can't wait to see
the end of the country as we know it.

403
00:20:53,393 --> 00:20:56,964
We also see the end
of the Republican Party as we know it.

404
00:20:56,964 --> 00:20:59,020
And finally and fundamentally,

405
00:20:59,020 --> 00:21:05,148
eventually, we're going to see
the end of Donald Trump as we know him.

406
00:21:05,148 --> 00:21:10,259
Let's make America great
and Lady Liberty proud again.

407
00:21:10,259 --> 00:21:11,565
Thank you very much.

408
00:21:11,565 --> 00:21:14,215
(Applause)