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Dialogue: 0,0:00:01.49,0:00:06.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the new one-dose Covid-19 vaccine\Nfrom Johnson & Johnson.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.42,0:00:09.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In early March,\Nmore than 6,000 doses
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.25,0:00:13.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were supposed to be shipped\Nto the city of Detroit, Michigan
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.12,0:00:15.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the mayor said, "No thanks".
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.38,0:00:18.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Moderna and Pfizer are the best.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.20,0:00:20.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I am going to do\Neverything I can
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.28,0:00:24.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make sure the residents\Nof the city of Detroit get the best."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.37,0:00:29.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He was referring to these numbers:\Nthe vaccines’ "efficacy rates."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.26,0:00:31.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech\Nand Moderna
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.76,0:00:34.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have super high efficacy rates:
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.21,0:00:37.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,95% and 94%.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:37.25,0:00:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But Johnson & Johnson?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.00,0:00:41.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just 66%.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.18,0:00:45.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if you only look at these numbers,\Nit’s natural to think that these vaccines
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.79,0:00:48.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are worse than these.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.04,0:00:50.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that assumption is wrong.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.46,0:00:53.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These numbers are arguably\Nnot even the most important measure
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.81,0:00:56.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of how effective these vaccines are.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.90,0:00:58.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To understand what is,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.39,0:01:02.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you first have to understand\Nwhat vaccines are even supposed to do.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.36,0:01:10.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A vaccine’s efficacy rate\Nis calculated in large clinical trials,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.63,0:01:14.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when the vaccine is tested\Non tens of thousands of people.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.76,0:01:17.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those people are broken into two groups:
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.32,0:01:21.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,half get the vaccine,\Nand half get a placebo.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.06,0:01:23.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then, they’re sent out\Nto live their lives,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.15,0:01:28.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while scientists monitor whether or not\Nthey get Covid-19 over several months.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.28,0:01:34.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the trial for Pfizer/BioNTech, for\Nexample, there were 43,000 participants.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.06,0:01:38.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the end, 170 people\Nwere infected with Covid-19.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.55,0:01:41.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And how those people fall \Ninto each of these groups
Dialogue: 0,0:01:41.78,0:01:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,determines a vaccine’s efficacy.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.00,0:01:47.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If the 170 were evenly split,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.83,0:01:51.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that would mean you’re just as likely\Nto get sick with the vaccine
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.04,0:01:52.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as without it.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.40,0:01:56.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it would have a 0% efficacy.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.09,0:02:01.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If all 170 were in the placebo group, and\Nzero people who got the vaccine were sick,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.83,0:02:05.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the vaccine would have\Nan efficacy of 100%.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.90,0:02:10.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With this particular trial,\Nthere were 162 in the placebo group,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.04,0:02:12.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and just eight\Nin the vaccine group.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.22,0:02:18.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It means those who had the vaccine\Nwere 95% less likely to get Covid-19:
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.23,0:02:22.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The vaccine had a 95% efficacy.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.34,0:02:28.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, this doesn’t mean that if 100 people\Nare vaccinated, 5 of them will get sick.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.69,0:02:33.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Instead, that 95% number\Napplies to the individual.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.57,0:02:35.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So each vaccinated person
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.43,0:02:40.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is 95% less likely than a person \Nwithout a vaccine to get sick
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.67,0:02:43.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,each time they’re exposed to Covid-19.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.88,0:02:49.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And every vaccine’s efficacy rate\Nis calculated in the same way.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.12,0:02:55.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But each vaccine’s trial might be done in\Nvery different circumstances.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.05,0:02:57.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, one of the biggest \Nconsiderations here,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.75,0:02:59.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we look at these numbers,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.25,0:03:03.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the timing in which\Nthese clinical trials were performed.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.34,0:03:08.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the number of daily Covid-19 cases\Nin the US since the pandemic began.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.59,0:03:13.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Moderna trial was done\Ncompletely in the US, here, in the summer.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.91,0:03:17.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Pfizer/BioNTech trial was primarily\Nbased in the US, too,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.32,0:03:20.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and at the same time.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.34,0:03:24.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Johnson & Johnson, however,\Nheld their US trial at this time,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.72,0:03:26.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when there were more opportunities
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.36,0:03:29.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for participants \Nto be exposed to infections.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.75,0:03:32.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And most of their trial took place \Nin other countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.68,0:03:36.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,primarily South Africa and Brazil.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.27,0:03:39.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in these other countries,\Nnot only were case rates high,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.64,0:03:43.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the virus itself was different.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.26,0:03:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The trials took place\Nas variants of Covid-19 emerged,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.00,0:03:50.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and became the dominant infections\Nin these countries;
Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.34,0:03:54.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,variants that are more likely \Nto get participants sick.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.29,0:03:59.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In South Africa, most of the cases in the\NJohnson & Johnson trial were that of the
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.38,0:04:03.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,variant, not the original strain that was\Nin the US over the summer.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.36,0:04:08.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And despite that, it still\Nsignificantly reduced infections.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.76,0:04:12.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"If you're trying to make one-to-one \Ncomparisons between vaccines,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.30,0:04:16.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they must have been studied in the same\Ntrial, with identical inclusion criteria,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.31,0:04:19.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the same parts of the world,\Nat the same time."
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.08,0:04:21.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"If we were to take\NPfizer and Moderna's vaccines and
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.82,0:04:27.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,redo their clinical trial at the same time\Nthat we saw J&J's clinical trial,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.48,0:04:30.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we might see quite different\Nefficacy numbers for those."
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.66,0:04:35.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These efficacy numbers just tell you\Nwhat happened in each vaccine’s trial,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.86,0:04:38.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not exactly what will happen\Nin the real world.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.90,0:04:44.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But many experts argue this isn’t even the\Nbest number to judge a vaccine by anyway.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.51,0:04:49.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because preventing any infection at all is\Nnot always the point of a vaccine.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.33,0:04:54.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"The goal of a Covid-19 vaccine program\Nis not really to get to 'Covid zero',
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.13,0:04:56.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's to tame this virus, to defang it,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.50,0:05:00.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to remove its ability to cause serious\Ndisease, hospitalization, and death."
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.73,0:05:05.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It helps to look at the different outcomes\Nof an exposure to Covid-19 like this:
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.68,0:05:09.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The best-case scenario\Nis, you don’t get sick at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.07,0:05:11.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The worst case is death.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.63,0:05:15.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In between, there’s being hospitalized,\Nsevere-to-moderate symptoms,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.38,0:05:17.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or having no symptoms at all.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.74,0:05:23.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the best circumstances, vaccines\Ngive you protection all the way to here.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.82,0:05:29.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But realistically, that isn’t the\Nmain objective of Covid-19 vaccines.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.98,0:05:35.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The real purpose is to give your body the\Nprotection to cover these possibilities,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.36,0:05:38.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so if you do get an infection,\Nit feels more like a cold
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.80,0:05:42.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than something you'd be\Nhospitalized for.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.16,0:05:47.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this is one thing that every one\Nof these Covid-19 vaccines do well.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.40,0:05:51.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In all these trials, while some people in\Nthe placebo groups were hospitalized,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.80,0:05:54.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or even died from Covid-19,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.35,0:05:58.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not one fully vaccinated person,\Nin any of these trials,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.52,0:06:01.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was hospitalized or died from Covid-19.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.82,0:06:04.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Something I wish that mayor\Nwould have understood
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.30,0:06:10.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that all three vaccines are basically\N100% effective in protecting from death."
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.56,0:06:15.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The mayor of Detroit backtracked and said\Nhe’d start taking Johnson & Johnson doses,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.79,0:06:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it’s still "highly effective\Nagainst what we care about most."
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.00,0:06:25.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Efficacy matters.\NBut it doesn’t matter the most.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.03,0:06:29.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The question isn’t which vaccine will\Nprotect you from any Covid infection,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:29.85,0:06:31.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but which one will keep you alive?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.90,0:06:33.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or out of the hospital?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.92,0:06:36.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Which one will help end the pandemic?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.40,0:06:38.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that’s any of them.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.16,0:06:41.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"The best vaccine right now for you\Nis the one that you're offered."
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.70,0:06:46.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"With each shot given to someone,\Nwe approach the end of this pandemic."