[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:01.08,0:00:04.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every day we face issues like climate change
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.27,0:00:05.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or the safety of vaccines
Dialogue: 0,0:00:05.71,0:00:08.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we have to answer questions whose answers
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.35,0:00:11.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rely heavily on scientific information.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.66,0:00:15.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Scientists tell us that the world is warming.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:15.03,0:00:17.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Scientists tell us that vaccines are safe.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.28,0:00:19.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But how do we know if they are right?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.46,0:00:21.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why should be believe the science?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.57,0:00:24.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The fact is, many of us actually\Ndon't believe the science.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.90,0:00:27.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Public opinion polls consistently show
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.31,0:00:29.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that significant proportions of the American people
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.63,0:00:33.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't believe the climate is\Nwarming due to human activities,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.22,0:00:36.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't think that there is\Nevolution by natural selection,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.72,0:00:40.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and aren't persuaded by the safety of vaccines.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.80,0:00:44.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So why should we believe the science?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.32,0:00:47.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, scientists don't like talking about \Nscience as a matter of belief.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.96,0:00:50.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, they would contract science with faith,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.44,0:00:53.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they would say belief is the domain of faith.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.07,0:00:57.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And faith is a separate thing\Napart and distinct from science.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.24,0:00:59.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Indeed they would say religion is based on faith
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.79,0:01:04.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or maybe the calculous of Pascal's wager.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.25,0:01:07.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Blaise Pascal was a 17th century mathematician
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.11,0:01:09.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who tried to bring scientific reasoning to the question of
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.63,0:01:11.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether or not he should believe in God,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.54,0:01:13.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and his wager went like this:
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.62,0:01:15.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well, if God doesn't exist
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.94,0:01:18.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I decide to believe in him
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.60,0:01:20.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nothing much is really lost.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.54,0:01:22.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe a few hours on Sunday.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.45,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[Laughter]
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But if he does exist and I don't believe in him,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then I'm in deep trouble.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so Pascal said, we'd better believe in God.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or as one of my college professors said,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"he clutched for the handmill of faith".
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He made that leap of faith
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,leaving science and rationalism behind.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now the fact is though, for most of us
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,most scientific claims are a leap of faith.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can't really judge scientific claims for ourselves in most cases.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And indeed this is actually true for most scientists as well
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,outside of their own specialties.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you think about it, a geologist can't tell you
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wether a vaccine is safe.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most chemists are not experts in evolutionary theory.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A physicist cannot tell you, despite the claims of some of them,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wether or not tobacco causes cancer.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, if even scientists themselves have to make a leap of faith
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,outside their own fields,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then why do they accept the claims of other scientists?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why do they believe each other's claims?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And should we believe those claims?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what I'd like to argue is yes, we should.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But not for the reason that most of us think.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most of us were taught in school that the reason we should
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,believe in science is because of the scientific method.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were taught that scientists follow a method
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that this method guarantees the truth of their claims.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The method that most of us were taught in school,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can call it the text book method,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the hypo-deductive method.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,According to the standard model, the textbook model,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,scientists develop hypotheses, they deduce the
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,consequences for those hypotheses,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then they go out into the world and they say:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are those consequences true?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can we observe them taking place in the natural world?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And if they are true, then the scientists say:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Great, we know the hypothesis is correct.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So there are many famous examples in the history
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of science of scientists doing exactly this.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of the most famous examples
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,comes from the work of Albert Einstein.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When Einstein developed the theory of general relativity
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one of the consequences of his theory
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was that space time wasn't just an empty void
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but that it actually had a fabric.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that that fabric was bent
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the presence of massive objects like the sun.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if this theory were true then it meant that light
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as it passed the sun
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,should actually be bent around it.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That was a pretty startling prediction
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it took a few years before scientists
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were able to test it.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they did test it in 1919
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and low and behold it turned out to be true.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Starlight actually does bend as it travels around the sun.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was a huge confirmation of the theory.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was considered proof of the truth of this radical new idea
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it was written up in many newspapers around the globe.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now sometimes this theory or this model
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is referred to as the deductive-nomological model.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Meaning those academics like to make things complicated. \N[Laughter]
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But also because in the ideal case it's about laws.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So nomological means having to do with laws.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in the ideal case, the hypothesis isn't just an idea,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ideally it is a law of nature.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why does it matter that it is a law of nature?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because if it is a law, it can't be broken.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If it's a law then it will always be true
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in all times and all places
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no matter what the circumstances are.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And all of you know at least one example of a famous law.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Einstein's famous equation, E=MC2,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which tells us what the relationship is
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between energy and mass.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that relationship is true no matter what.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It turns out though that there are \Nseveral problems with this model.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The main problem is that it's wrong.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's just not true. [Laughter]
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'm going to talk about three reasons why it's wrong.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the first reason is a logical reason,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's the problem of the fallacy of affirming the consequent.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's another fancy academic way of saying
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that false theories can make true predictions.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So just because the prediction comes true
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,doesn't actually logically prove that the theory is correct.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I have a good example of that too, \Nagain from the history of science.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is a picture of the Ptolemaic universe
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the Earth at the center of the universe
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and The Sun and the planets going around it.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Ptolemaic model was believed
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by many very smart people for many centuries.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well why?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well the answer is because it made \Nlots of predictions that came true.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Ptolemaic system enabled astronomers
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make accurate predictions of the motions of the planet.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact more accurate predictions at first
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than the Copernican theory which we now would say is true.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that's one problem with the textbook model,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a second problem is a practical problem
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's the problem of auxiliary hypotheses.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Auxiliary hypotheses are assumptions
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that scientists are making,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they may or may not even be aware that they're making.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So an important example of this comes from
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,comes from the Copernican model
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which ultimately replaced the Ptolemaic system.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So when Nicolaus Copernicus said,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually the Earth is not the center of the universe,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the sun is the center of the solar system,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the Earth moves around the sun.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Scientists said, well okay, Nicolaus, if that's true
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we ought to be able to detect the motion
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the Earth around the sun.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so this slide here illustrates a concept
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,known as stellar parallax.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And astronomers said, if the Earth is moving
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we look at a prominent star, let's say, Sirius.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well I know I'm in Manhattan so you guys can't see the stars,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but imagine you're out in the country, \Nimagine you chose that rural life.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we look at a star in December, we see that star
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,against the backdrop of distant stars.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we now make the same observation six months later
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when the Earth has moved to this position in June,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we look at that same star and we see it against a different backdrop.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That difference, that angular difference, is the stellar parallax.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is the prediction that the Copernican model makes,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,astronomers looked for the stellar parallax
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they found nothing, nothing at all.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And many people argued that this proved \Nthat the Copernican model was false.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what happened?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well in hindsight we can say that astronomers were making
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two auxiliary hypotheses, both of which
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we would now say were incorrect.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first was an assumption about the size of the Earth's orbit.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Astronomers were assuming that the Earth's orbit was large
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,relative to the stars.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today we would draw the picture more like this,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this comes from NASA,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you see the Earth's orbit is actually quite small.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, it's actually much smaller even than shown here.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The stellar parallax therefore,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is very small and actually very hard to detect.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that leads to the second reason
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why the prediction didn't work,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because scientists were also assuming
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the telescopes they had were sensitive enough
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to detect the parallax.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that turned out not to be true.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It wasn't until the 19th century that scientists were able to detect
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the stellar parallax.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, there's a third problem as well.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The third problem is simply a factual problem
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that a lot of science doesn't fit the textbook model.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A lot of science isn't deductive at all, it's actually inductive.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And by that we mean that scientists don't necessarily
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,start with theories and hypotheses, often they just
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,start with observations of stuff going on in the world.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the most famous example of that is one of the most
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,famous scientists who ever lived, Charles Darwin.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When Darwin went out as a young \Nman on the voyage of the Beagle,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he didn't have a hypothesis, he didn't have a theory.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,He just knew that he wanted to have a career as a scientist
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he started to collect data.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Mainly he knew that he hated medicine
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the sight of blood made him sick so
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he had to have an alternative career path.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So he started collecting data.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he collected many things including his famous finches.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When he collected these finches he through them in a bag
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he had no idea what they meant.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many years later back in London,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Darwin looked at his data again and began to develop
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an explanation
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that explanation was the theory of natural selection.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Besides inductive science,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,scientists also often participate in modeling.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One of the things scientists want to do in life
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is to explain the causes of things.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And how do we do that?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, one way you can do it is to build a model
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that tests an idea.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is a picture of Henry Cadell,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who was a Scottish geologist in the 19th century.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can tell he's Scottish because he's wearing
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a deerstalker cap and Wellington boots.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And Cadell wanted to answer the question,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how are mountains formed?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And one of the things he had observed
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that if you look at mountains\Nlike the Appalachians,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you often find that the rocks in them
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are folded,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they're folded in a particular way,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which suggested to him
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that they were actually being\Ncompressed from the side.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this idea would later play a major role
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in discussions of continental drift.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So he built this model, this crazy contraption
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with levers and wood and here's his wheelbarrow,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,buckets, a big sledgehammer.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't know why he's got the Wellington boots.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe it's going to rain.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And he created this physical model in order
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to demonstrate that you could in fact create
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,patterns in rocks, or at least in this case in mud,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that looked a lot like mountains
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you compressed them from the side.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it was an argument about\Nthe cause of mountains.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nowadays, most scientists prefer to work inside,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so they don't build physical models so much
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as to make computer simulations.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But a computer simulation is a kind of a model.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a model that's made with mathematics,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and like the physical models of the 19th century,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's very important for thinking about causes.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So one of the big questions\Nto do with climate change,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have tremendous amounts of evidence
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the earth is warming up.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This slide here, the black line shows
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the measurements that scientists have taken
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the last 150 years
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,showing that the earth's temperature
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has steadily increased,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you can see in particular\Nthat in the last 50 years
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's been this dramatic increase
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of nearly one degree Centigrade,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or almost two degrees Fahrenheit.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what, though, is driving that change?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How can we know what's causing
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the observed warming?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, scientists can model it
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,using a computer simulation.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this diagram illustrates a computer simulation
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that has looked at all the different factors
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we know can influence the earth's climate,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so sulfate particles from air pollution,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,volcanic dust from volcanic eruptions,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,changes in solar radiation,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and, of course, greenhouse gases.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they asked the question,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what set of variables put into a model
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will reproduce what we actually see in real life?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here is the real life in black.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's the model in this light grey,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the answer is
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a model that includes, it's the answer E on that SAT,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,all of the above.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The only way you can reproduce
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the observed temperature measurements
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is with all of these things put together,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,including greenhouse gases,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in particular you can see that the increase
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in greenhouse gases tracks
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this very dramatic increase in temperature
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over the last 50 years.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so this is why climate scientists say
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's not just that we know that\Nclimate change is happening,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we know that greenhouse gases are a major part
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the reason why.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So now because there all these different things
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that scientists do,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the philosopher Paul Feyerabend famously said,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"The only principle in science
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that doesn't inhibit progress is: anything goes."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now this quotation has often\Nbeen taken out of context,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because Feyerabend was not actually saying
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that in science anything goes.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What he was saying was,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually the full quotation is,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"If you press me to say
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what is the method of science,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I would have to say: anything goes."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What he was trying to say
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that scientists do a lot of different things.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Scientists are creative.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But then this pushes the question back:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if scientists don't use a single method,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then how do they decide
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what's right and what's wrong?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And who judges?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the answer is, scientists judge,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they judge by judging evidence.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Scientists collect evidence in many different ways,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but however they collect it,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they have to subject it to scrutiny.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this led to sociologist Robert Merton
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to focus on this question of how scientists
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,scrutinize data and evidence,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he said they do it in a way he called
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"organized skepticism."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And by that he meant it's organized
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they do it collectively,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they do it as a group,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and skepticism, because they do it from a position
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of distrust.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is to say, the burden of proof
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is on the person with a novel claim.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in this sense, science\Nis intrinsically conservative.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's quite hard to persuade the scientific community
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to say, "Yes, we know something, this is true."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So despite the popularity of the concept
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of paradigm shifts,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what we find is that actually,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,really major changes in scientific thinking
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are relatively rare in the history of science.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So finally that brings us to one more idea:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if scientists judge evidence collectively,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this has led historians to focus on the question
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of consensus,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to say that at the end of the day,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what science is,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what scientific knowledge is,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the consensus of the scientific experts
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who through this process of organized scrutiny,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,collective scrutiny,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have judged the evidence
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and come to a conclusion about it,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,either yea or nay.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we can think of scientific knowledge
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a consensus of experts.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can also think of science as being
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a kind of a jury,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,except it's a very special kind of jury.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not a jury of your peers,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's a jury of geeks.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a jury of men and women with Ph.D's,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and unlike a conventional jury,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which has only two choices,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,guilty or not guilty,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the scientific jury actually has a number of choices.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Scientists can say yes, something's true.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Scientists can say no, it's false.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or, they can say, well it might be true
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we need to work more\Nand collect more evidence.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or, they can say it might be true,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we don't know how to answer the question
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we're going to put it aside
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and maybe come back to it later.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what scientists call "intractable."
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But this leads us to one final problem:
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if science is what scientists say it is,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then isn't that just an appeal to authority?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And weren't we all taught in school
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the appeal to authority is a logical fallacy?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, here's the paradox of modern science,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the paradox of the conclusions I think historians
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and philosophers and sociologists have come to,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that actually science is the appeal to authority,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's not the authority of the individual,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no matter how smart that individual is,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like Plato or Socrates or Einstein.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's the authority of the collective community.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can think of it is a kind of wisdom of the crowd,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but a very special kind of crowd.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Science does appeal to authority,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's not based on any individual,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,no matter how smart that individual may be.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's based on the collective wisdom,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the collective knowledge, the collective work,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of all of the scientists who have worked
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on a particular problem.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Scientists have a kind of culture of collective distrust,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this "show me" culture,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,illustrated by this nice woman here
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,showing her colleagues her evidence.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of course, these people don't\Nreally look like scientists,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they're much too happy.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so that brings me to my final point.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most of us get up in the morning.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most of us trust our cars.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, see, now I think, I'm in Manhattan,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is a bad analogy,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but most Americans who don't live in Manhattan
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,get up in the morning and get in their cars
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and turn on that ignition, and their cars work,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they work incredibly well.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The modern automobile hardly ever breaks down.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So why is that? Why do cars work so well?
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not because of the genius of Henry Ford
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or Carl Benz or even Elon Musk.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's because the modern automobile
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the product of more than 100 years of work
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by hundreds and thousands
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and tens of thousands of people.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The modern automobile is the product
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the collected work and wisdom and experience
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of every man and woman who has ever worked
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on a car,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the reliability of the technology is the result
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of that accumulated effort.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We benefit not just from the benefit of Benz
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Ford and Musk
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but from the collective intelligence and hard work
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of all of the people who have worked
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the modern car.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the same is true of science,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,only science is even older.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our basis for trust in science is actually the same
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as our basis in trust in technology,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the same as our basis for trust in anything,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,namely, experience.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it shouldn't be blind trust
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,anymore than we would have blind trust in anything.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our trust in science, like science itself,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,should be based on evidence,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that means that scientists
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have to become better communicators.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They have to explain to us not just what they know
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but how they know it,
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it means that we have\Nto become better listeners.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much.
Dialogue: 0,9:59:59.99,9:59:59.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)