WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:05.000 This is the skyline of my hometown, New Orleans. 00:00:05.000 --> 00:00:08.000 It was a great place to grow up, 00:00:08.000 --> 00:00:12.000 but it's one of the most vulnerable spots in the world. 00:00:12.000 --> 00:00:14.000 Half the city is already below sea level. 00:00:14.000 --> 00:00:18.000 In 2005, the world watched as New Orleans 00:00:18.000 --> 00:00:21.000 and the Gulf Coast were devastated by Hurricane Katrina. 00:00:21.000 --> 00:00:28.000 One thousand, eight hundred and thirty-six people died. Nearly 300,000 homes were lost. 00:00:28.000 --> 00:00:30.000 These are my mother's, at the top -- 00:00:30.000 --> 00:00:31.000 although that's not her car, 00:00:31.000 --> 00:00:34.000 it was carried there by floodwaters up to the roof -- 00:00:34.000 --> 00:00:36.000 and that's my sister's, below. 00:00:36.000 --> 00:00:40.000 Fortunately, they and other family members got out in time, 00:00:40.000 --> 00:00:42.000 but they lost their homes, and as you can see, 00:00:42.000 --> 00:00:45.000 just about everything in them. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:45.000 --> 00:00:47.000 Other parts of the world have been hit by storms 00:00:47.000 --> 00:00:49.000 in even more devastating ways. 00:00:49.000 --> 00:00:52.000 In 2008, Cyclone Nargis and its aftermath 00:00:52.000 --> 00:00:55.000 killed 138,000 in Myanmar. 00:00:55.000 --> 00:00:59.000 Climate change is affecting our homes, our communities, 00:00:59.000 --> 00:01:01.000 our way of life. We should be preparing 00:01:01.000 --> 00:01:05.000 at every scale and at every opportunity. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:05.000 --> 00:01:09.000 This talk is about being prepared for, and resilient to 00:01:09.000 --> 00:01:11.000 the changes that are coming and that will affect our homes 00:01:11.000 --> 00:01:14.000 and our collective home, the Earth. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:14.000 --> 00:01:18.000 The changes in these times won't affect us all equally. 00:01:18.000 --> 00:01:21.000 There are important distributional consequences, 00:01:21.000 --> 00:01:23.000 and they're not what you always might think. 00:01:23.000 --> 00:01:26.000 In New Orleans, the elderly and female-headed households 00:01:26.000 --> 00:01:28.000 were among the most vulnerable. 00:01:28.000 --> 00:01:30.000 For those in vulnerable, low-lying nations, 00:01:30.000 --> 00:01:33.000 how do you put a dollar value on losing your country 00:01:33.000 --> 00:01:38.000 where you ancestors are buried? And where will your people go? 00:01:38.000 --> 00:01:40.000 And how will they cope in a foreign land? 00:01:40.000 --> 00:01:42.000 Will there be tensions over immigration, 00:01:42.000 --> 00:01:46.000 or conflicts over competition for limited resources? 00:01:46.000 --> 00:01:51.000 It's already fueled conflicts in Chad and Darfur. 00:01:51.000 --> 00:01:55.000 Like it or not, ready or not, this is our future. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:55.000 --> 00:01:59.000 Sure, some are looking for opportunities in this new world. 00:01:59.000 --> 00:02:02.000 That's the Russians planting a flag on the ocean bottom 00:02:02.000 --> 00:02:05.000 to stake a claim for minerals under the receding Arctic sea ice. 00:02:05.000 --> 00:02:09.000 But while there might be some short-term individual winners, 00:02:09.000 --> 00:02:12.000 our collective losses will far outweigh them. 00:02:12.000 --> 00:02:14.000 Look no further than the insurance industry as they struggle 00:02:14.000 --> 00:02:16.000 to cope with mounting catastrophic losses 00:02:16.000 --> 00:02:19.000 from extreme weather events. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:19.000 --> 00:02:22.000 The military gets it. They call climate change 00:02:22.000 --> 00:02:25.000 a threat multiplier that could harm stability and security, 00:02:25.000 --> 00:02:28.000 while governments around the world are evaluating 00:02:28.000 --> 00:02:30.000 how to respond. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:30.000 --> 00:02:34.000 So what can we do? How can we prepare and adapt? 00:02:34.000 --> 00:02:37.000 I'd like to share three sets of examples, starting with 00:02:37.000 --> 00:02:40.000 adapting to violent storms and floods. 00:02:40.000 --> 00:02:43.000 In New Orleans, the I-10 Twin Spans, 00:02:43.000 --> 00:02:46.000 with sections knocked out in Katrina, have been rebuilt 00:02:46.000 --> 00:02:50.000 21 feet higher to allow for greater storm surge. 00:02:50.000 --> 00:02:52.000 And these raised and energy-efficient homes 00:02:52.000 --> 00:02:55.000 were developed by Brad Pitt and Make It Right 00:02:55.000 --> 00:02:58.000 for the hard-hit Ninth Ward. 00:02:58.000 --> 00:03:01.000 The devastated church my mom attends has been 00:03:01.000 --> 00:03:04.000 not only rebuilt higher, it's poised to become 00:03:04.000 --> 00:03:06.000 the first Energy Star church in the country. 00:03:06.000 --> 00:03:08.000 They're selling electricity back to the grid 00:03:08.000 --> 00:03:12.000 thanks to solar panels, reflective paint and more. 00:03:12.000 --> 00:03:15.000 Their March electricity bill was only 48 dollars. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:15.000 --> 00:03:19.000 Now these are examples of New Orleans rebuilding in this way, 00:03:19.000 --> 00:03:24.000 but better if others act proactively with these changes in mind. 00:03:24.000 --> 00:03:28.000 For example, in Galveston, here's a resilient home 00:03:28.000 --> 00:03:30.000 that survived Hurricane Ike, 00:03:30.000 --> 00:03:33.000 when others on neighboring lots clearly did not. 00:03:33.000 --> 00:03:36.000 And around the world, satellites and warning systems 00:03:36.000 --> 00:03:40.000 are saving lives in flood-prone areas such as Bangladesh. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:40.000 --> 00:03:43.000 But as important as technology and infrastructure are, 00:03:43.000 --> 00:03:47.000 perhaps the human element is even more critical. 00:03:47.000 --> 00:03:50.000 We need better planning and systems for evacuation. 00:03:50.000 --> 00:03:54.000 We need to better understand how people make decisions 00:03:54.000 --> 00:03:56.000 in times of crisis, and why. 00:03:56.000 --> 00:04:00.000 While it's true that many who died in Katrina did not have access to transportation, 00:04:00.000 --> 00:04:03.000 others who did refused to leave as the storm approached, 00:04:03.000 --> 00:04:07.000 often because available transportation and shelters 00:04:07.000 --> 00:04:09.000 refused to allow them to take their pets. 00:04:09.000 --> 00:04:14.000 Imagine leaving behind your own pet in an evacuation or a rescue. 00:04:14.000 --> 00:04:17.000 Fortunately in 2006, Congress passed 00:04:17.000 --> 00:04:21.000 the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act (Laughter) 00:04:21.000 --> 00:04:25.000 — it spells "PETS" — to change that. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:25.000 --> 00:04:28.000 Second, preparing for heat and drought. 00:04:28.000 --> 00:04:31.000 Farmers are facing challenges of drought from Asia 00:04:31.000 --> 00:04:33.000 to Africa, from Australia to Oklahoma, 00:04:33.000 --> 00:04:36.000 while heat waves linked with climate change 00:04:36.000 --> 00:04:38.000 have killed tens of thousands of people 00:04:38.000 --> 00:04:44.000 in Western Europe in 2003, and again in Russia in 2010. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:44.000 --> 00:04:49.000 In Ethiopia, 70 percent, that's 7-0 percent of the population, 00:04:49.000 --> 00:04:52.000 depends on rainfall for its livelihood. 00:04:52.000 --> 00:04:56.000 Oxfam and Swiss Re, together with Rockefeller Foundation, 00:04:56.000 --> 00:04:59.000 are helping farmers like this one build hillside terraces 00:04:59.000 --> 00:05:02.000 and find other ways to conserve water, 00:05:02.000 --> 00:05:06.000 but they're also providing for insurance when the droughts do come. 00:05:06.000 --> 00:05:08.000 The stability this provides is giving the farmers 00:05:08.000 --> 00:05:10.000 the confidence to invest. 00:05:10.000 --> 00:05:13.000 It's giving them access to affordable credit. 00:05:13.000 --> 00:05:15.000 It's allowing them to become more productive so that 00:05:15.000 --> 00:05:18.000 they can afford their own insurance over time, without assistance. 00:05:18.000 --> 00:05:21.000 It's a virtuous cycle, and one that could be replicated 00:05:21.000 --> 00:05:23.000 throughout the developing world. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:23.000 --> 00:05:26.000 After a lethal 1995 heat wave 00:05:26.000 --> 00:05:29.000 turned refrigerator trucks from the popular 00:05:29.000 --> 00:05:32.000 Taste of Chicago festival into makeshift morgues, 00:05:32.000 --> 00:05:34.000 Chicago became a recognized leader, 00:05:34.000 --> 00:05:37.000 tamping down on the urban heat island impact 00:05:37.000 --> 00:05:39.000 through opening cooling centers, 00:05:39.000 --> 00:05:42.000 outreach to vulnerable neighborhoods, planting trees, 00:05:42.000 --> 00:05:45.000 creating cool white or vegetated green roofs. 00:05:45.000 --> 00:05:49.000 This is City Hall's green roof, next to Cook County's [portion of the] roof, 00:05:49.000 --> 00:05:52.000 which is 77 degrees Fahrenheit hotter at the surface. 00:05:52.000 --> 00:05:57.000 Washington, D.C., last year, actually led the nation 00:05:57.000 --> 00:06:00.000 in new green roofs installed, and they're funding this in part 00:06:00.000 --> 00:06:03.000 thanks to a five-cent tax on plastic bags. 00:06:03.000 --> 00:06:06.000 They're splitting the cost of installing these green roofs 00:06:06.000 --> 00:06:08.000 with home and building owners. 00:06:08.000 --> 00:06:10.000 The roofs not only temper urban heat island impact 00:06:10.000 --> 00:06:13.000 but they save energy, and therefore money, 00:06:13.000 --> 00:06:15.000 the emissions that cause climate change, 00:06:15.000 --> 00:06:17.000 and they also reduce stormwater runoff. 00:06:17.000 --> 00:06:22.000 So some solutions to heat can provide for win-win-wins. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:22.000 --> 00:06:26.000 Third, adapting to rising seas. 00:06:26.000 --> 00:06:30.000 Sea level rise threatens coastal ecosystems, agriculture, 00:06:30.000 --> 00:06:33.000 even major cities. This is what one to two meters 00:06:33.000 --> 00:06:36.000 of sea level rise looks like in the Mekong Delta. 00:06:36.000 --> 00:06:39.000 That's where half of Vietnam's rice is grown. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:39.000 --> 00:06:42.000 Infrastructure is going to be affected. 00:06:42.000 --> 00:06:44.000 Airports around the world are located on the coast. 00:06:44.000 --> 00:06:46.000 It makes sense, right? There's open space, 00:06:46.000 --> 00:06:49.000 the planes can take off and land without worrying about 00:06:49.000 --> 00:06:51.000 creating noise or avoiding tall buildings. 00:06:51.000 --> 00:06:54.000 Here's just one example, San Francisco Airport, 00:06:54.000 --> 00:06:57.000 with 16 inches or more of flooding. 00:06:57.000 --> 00:07:00.000 Imagine the staggering cost of protecting 00:07:00.000 --> 00:07:03.000 this vital infrastructure with levees. 00:07:03.000 --> 00:07:04.000 But there might be some changes in store 00:07:04.000 --> 00:07:07.000 that you might not imagine. For example, 00:07:07.000 --> 00:07:10.000 planes require more runway for takeoff 00:07:10.000 --> 00:07:14.000 because the heated, less dense air, provides for less lift. 00:07:14.000 --> 00:07:17.000 San Francisco is also spending 40 million dollars 00:07:17.000 --> 00:07:20.000 to rethink and redesign its water and sewage treatment, 00:07:20.000 --> 00:07:24.000 as water outfall pipes like this one can be flooded with seawater, 00:07:24.000 --> 00:07:27.000 causing backups at the plant, harming the bacteria 00:07:27.000 --> 00:07:28.000 that are needed to treat the waste. 00:07:28.000 --> 00:07:30.000 So these outfall pipes have been retrofitted 00:07:30.000 --> 00:07:34.000 to shut seawater off from entering the system. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:34.000 --> 00:07:37.000 Beyond these technical solutions, our work 00:07:37.000 --> 00:07:38.000 at the Georgetown Climate Center with communities 00:07:38.000 --> 00:07:42.000 encourages them to look at what existing legal and policy tools are available 00:07:42.000 --> 00:07:46.000 and to consider how they can accommodate change. 00:07:46.000 --> 00:07:49.000 For example, in land use, which areas do you want 00:07:49.000 --> 00:07:52.000 to protect, through adding a seawall, for example, 00:07:52.000 --> 00:07:55.000 alter, by raising buildings, or retreat from, 00:07:55.000 --> 00:07:58.000 to allow the migration of important natural systems, 00:07:58.000 --> 00:08:01.000 such as wetlands or beaches? NOTE Paragraph 00:08:01.000 --> 00:08:03.000 Other examples to consider. In the U.K., 00:08:03.000 --> 00:08:07.000 the Thames Barrier protects London from storm surge. 00:08:07.000 --> 00:08:09.000 The Asian Cities Climate [Change] Resilience Network 00:08:09.000 --> 00:08:12.000 is restoring vital ecosystems like forest mangroves. 00:08:12.000 --> 00:08:15.000 These are not only important ecosystems in their own right, 00:08:15.000 --> 00:08:20.000 but they also serve as a buffer to protect inland communities. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:20.000 --> 00:08:24.000 New York City is incredibly vulnerable to storms, 00:08:24.000 --> 00:08:27.000 as you can see from this clever sign, and to sea level rise, 00:08:27.000 --> 00:08:30.000 and to storm surge, as you can see from the subway flooding. 00:08:30.000 --> 00:08:34.000 But back above ground, these raised ventilation grates 00:08:34.000 --> 00:08:36.000 for the subway system show that solutions can be both 00:08:36.000 --> 00:08:39.000 functional and attractive. In fact, in New York, 00:08:39.000 --> 00:08:42.000 San Francisco and London, designers have envisioned 00:08:42.000 --> 00:08:45.000 ways to better integrate the natural and built environments 00:08:45.000 --> 00:08:47.000 with climate change in mind. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:47.000 --> 00:08:50.000 I think these are inspiring examples of what's possible 00:08:50.000 --> 00:08:53.000 when we feel empowered to plan for a world that will be different. 00:08:53.000 --> 00:08:57.000 But now, a word of caution. 00:08:57.000 --> 00:08:59.000 Adaptation's too important to be left to the experts. 00:08:59.000 --> 00:09:03.000 Why? Well, there are no experts. 00:09:03.000 --> 00:09:06.000 We're entering uncharted territory, and yet 00:09:06.000 --> 00:09:10.000 our expertise and our systems are based on the past. 00:09:10.000 --> 00:09:13.000 "Stationarity" is the notion that we can anticipate the future 00:09:13.000 --> 00:09:16.000 based on the past, and plan accordingly, 00:09:16.000 --> 00:09:18.000 and this principle governs much of our engineering, 00:09:18.000 --> 00:09:21.000 our design of critical infrastructure, city water systems, 00:09:21.000 --> 00:09:25.000 building codes, even water rights and other legal precedents. 00:09:25.000 --> 00:09:29.000 But we can simply no longer rely on established norms. 00:09:29.000 --> 00:09:33.000 We're operating outside the bounds of CO2 concentrations 00:09:33.000 --> 00:09:37.000 that the planet has seen for hundreds of thousands of years. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:37.000 --> 00:09:41.000 The larger point I'm trying to make is this. 00:09:41.000 --> 00:09:44.000 It's up to us to look at our homes and our communities, 00:09:44.000 --> 00:09:47.000 our vulnerabilities and our exposures to risk, 00:09:47.000 --> 00:09:51.000 and to find ways to not just survive, but to thrive, 00:09:51.000 --> 00:09:53.000 and it's up to us to plan and to prepare 00:09:53.000 --> 00:09:56.000 and to call on our government leaders and require them 00:09:56.000 --> 00:09:58.000 to do the same, even while they address 00:09:58.000 --> 00:10:01.000 the underlying causes of climate change. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:01.000 --> 00:10:03.000 There are no quick fixes. 00:10:03.000 --> 00:10:06.000 There are no one-size-fits-all solutions. 00:10:06.000 --> 00:10:08.000 We're all learning by doing. 00:10:08.000 --> 00:10:12.000 But the operative word is doing. 00:10:12.000 --> 00:10:14.000 Thank you. (Applause) 00:10:14.000 --> 00:10:18.000 (Applause)