WEBVTT 00:00:00.686 --> 00:00:05.766 This is the skyline of my hometown, New Orleans. 00:00:05.766 --> 00:00:08.403 It was a great place to grow up, 00:00:08.403 --> 00:00:12.138 but it's one of the most vulnerable spots in the world. 00:00:12.138 --> 00:00:14.845 Half the city is already below sea level. 00:00:14.845 --> 00:00:18.297 In 2005, the world watched as New Orleans 00:00:18.297 --> 00:00:21.800 and the Gulf Coast were devastated by Hurricane Katrina. 00:00:21.800 --> 00:00:28.010 One thousand, eight hundred and thirty-six people died. Nearly 300,000 homes were lost. 00:00:28.010 --> 00:00:30.281 These are my mother's, at the top -- 00:00:30.281 --> 00:00:31.735 although that's not her car, 00:00:31.735 --> 00:00:34.234 it was carried there by floodwaters up to the roof -- 00:00:34.234 --> 00:00:36.381 and that's my sister's, below. 00:00:36.381 --> 00:00:40.233 Fortunately, they and other family members got out in time, 00:00:40.233 --> 00:00:42.422 but they lost their homes, and as you can see, 00:00:42.422 --> 00:00:45.298 just about everything in them. NOTE Paragraph 00:00:45.298 --> 00:00:47.452 Other parts of the world have been hit by storms 00:00:47.452 --> 00:00:49.592 in even more devastating ways. 00:00:49.592 --> 00:00:52.470 In 2008, Cyclone Nargis and its aftermath 00:00:52.470 --> 00:00:55.812 killed 138,000 in Myanmar. 00:00:55.812 --> 00:00:59.244 Climate change is affecting our homes, our communities, 00:00:59.244 --> 00:01:01.692 our way of life. We should be preparing 00:01:01.692 --> 00:01:05.349 at every scale and at every opportunity. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:05.349 --> 00:01:09.204 This talk is about being prepared for, and resilient to 00:01:09.204 --> 00:01:11.957 the changes that are coming and that will affect our homes 00:01:11.957 --> 00:01:14.544 and our collective home, the Earth. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:14.544 --> 00:01:18.896 The changes in these times won't affect us all equally. 00:01:18.896 --> 00:01:21.048 There are important distributional consequences, 00:01:21.048 --> 00:01:23.216 and they're not what you always might think. 00:01:23.216 --> 00:01:26.616 In New Orleans, the elderly and female-headed households 00:01:26.616 --> 00:01:28.896 were among the most vulnerable. 00:01:28.896 --> 00:01:30.984 For those in vulnerable, low-lying nations, 00:01:30.984 --> 00:01:33.832 how do you put a dollar value on losing your country 00:01:33.832 --> 00:01:38.352 where you ancestors are buried? And where will your people go? 00:01:38.352 --> 00:01:40.483 And how will they cope in a foreign land? 00:01:40.483 --> 00:01:42.560 Will there be tensions over immigration, 00:01:42.560 --> 00:01:46.056 or conflicts over competition for limited resources? 00:01:46.056 --> 00:01:51.048 It's already fueled conflicts in Chad and Darfur. 00:01:51.048 --> 00:01:55.865 Like it or not, ready or not, this is our future. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:55.865 --> 00:01:59.392 Sure, some are looking for opportunities in this new world. 00:01:59.392 --> 00:02:02.416 That's the Russians planting a flag on the ocean bottom 00:02:02.416 --> 00:02:05.848 to stake a claim for minerals under the receding Arctic sea ice. 00:02:05.848 --> 00:02:09.111 But while there might be some short-term individual winners, 00:02:09.111 --> 00:02:12.648 our collective losses will far outweigh them. 00:02:12.648 --> 00:02:14.911 Look no further than the insurance industry as they struggle 00:02:14.911 --> 00:02:16.967 to cope with mounting catastrophic losses 00:02:16.967 --> 00:02:19.393 from extreme weather events. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:19.393 --> 00:02:22.248 The military gets it. They call climate change 00:02:22.248 --> 00:02:25.489 a threat multiplier that could harm stability and security, 00:02:25.489 --> 00:02:28.378 while governments around the world are evaluating 00:02:28.378 --> 00:02:30.425 how to respond. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:30.425 --> 00:02:34.600 So what can we do? How can we prepare and adapt? 00:02:34.600 --> 00:02:37.631 I'd like to share three sets of examples, starting with 00:02:37.631 --> 00:02:40.600 adapting to violent storms and floods. 00:02:40.600 --> 00:02:43.288 In New Orleans, the I-10 Twin Spans, 00:02:43.288 --> 00:02:46.161 with sections knocked out in Katrina, have been rebuilt 00:02:46.161 --> 00:02:50.136 21 feet higher to allow for greater storm surge. 00:02:50.136 --> 00:02:52.682 And these raised and energy-efficient homes 00:02:52.682 --> 00:02:55.544 were developed by Brad Pitt and Make It Right 00:02:55.544 --> 00:02:58.360 for the hard-hit Ninth Ward. 00:02:58.360 --> 00:03:01.456 The devastated church my mom attends has been 00:03:01.456 --> 00:03:04.128 not only rebuilt higher, it's poised to become 00:03:04.128 --> 00:03:06.760 the first Energy Star church in the country. 00:03:06.760 --> 00:03:08.776 They're selling electricity back to the grid 00:03:08.776 --> 00:03:12.527 thanks to solar panels, reflective paint and more. 00:03:12.527 --> 00:03:15.104 Their March electricity bill was only 48 dollars. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:15.104 --> 00:03:19.417 Now these are examples of New Orleans rebuilding in this way, 00:03:19.417 --> 00:03:24.313 but better if others act proactively with these changes in mind. 00:03:24.313 --> 00:03:28.096 For example, in Galveston, here's a resilient home 00:03:28.096 --> 00:03:30.544 that survived Hurricane Ike, 00:03:30.544 --> 00:03:33.160 when others on neighboring lots clearly did not. 00:03:33.160 --> 00:03:36.337 And around the world, satellites and warning systems 00:03:36.337 --> 00:03:40.745 are saving lives in flood-prone areas such as Bangladesh. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:40.745 --> 00:03:43.857 But as important as technology and infrastructure are, 00:03:43.857 --> 00:03:47.593 perhaps the human element is even more critical. 00:03:47.593 --> 00:03:50.976 We need better planning and systems for evacuation. 00:03:50.976 --> 00:03:54.065 We need to better understand how people make decisions 00:03:54.065 --> 00:03:56.161 in times of crisis, and why. 00:03:56.161 --> 00:04:00.273 While it's true that many who died in Katrina did not have access to transportation, 00:04:00.273 --> 00:04:03.473 others who did refused to leave as the storm approached, 00:04:03.473 --> 00:04:07.295 often because available transportation and shelters 00:04:07.295 --> 00:04:09.809 refused to allow them to take their pets. 00:04:09.809 --> 00:04:14.829 Imagine leaving behind your own pet in an evacuation or a rescue. 00:04:14.829 --> 00:04:17.704 Fortunately in 2006, Congress passed 00:04:17.704 --> 00:04:21.178 the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act (Laughter) 00:04:21.178 --> 00:04:25.716 — it spells "PETS" — to change that. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:25.716 --> 00:04:28.601 Second, preparing for heat and drought. 00:04:28.601 --> 00:04:31.474 Farmers are facing challenges of drought from Asia 00:04:31.474 --> 00:04:33.978 to Africa, from Australia to Oklahoma, 00:04:33.978 --> 00:04:36.345 while heat waves linked with climate change 00:04:36.345 --> 00:04:38.746 have killed tens of thousands of people 00:04:38.746 --> 00:04:44.978 in Western Europe in 2003, and again in Russia in 2010. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:44.978 --> 00:04:49.929 In Ethiopia, 70 percent, that's 7-0 percent of the population, 00:04:49.929 --> 00:04:52.538 depends on rainfall for its livelihood. 00:04:52.538 --> 00:04:56.250 Oxfam and Swiss Re, together with Rockefeller Foundation, 00:04:56.250 --> 00:04:59.906 are helping farmers like this one build hillside terraces 00:04:59.906 --> 00:05:02.537 and find other ways to conserve water, 00:05:02.537 --> 00:05:06.538 but they're also providing for insurance when the droughts do come. 00:05:06.538 --> 00:05:08.801 The stability this provides is giving the farmers 00:05:08.801 --> 00:05:10.722 the confidence to invest. 00:05:10.722 --> 00:05:13.364 It's giving them access to affordable credit. 00:05:13.364 --> 00:05:15.012 It's allowing them to become more productive so that 00:05:15.012 --> 00:05:18.922 they can afford their own insurance over time, without assistance. 00:05:18.922 --> 00:05:21.445 It's a virtuous cycle, and one that could be replicated 00:05:21.445 --> 00:05:23.917 throughout the developing world. NOTE Paragraph 00:05:23.917 --> 00:05:26.762 After a lethal 1995 heat wave 00:05:26.762 --> 00:05:29.362 turned refrigerator trucks from the popular 00:05:29.362 --> 00:05:32.555 Taste of Chicago festival into makeshift morgues, 00:05:32.555 --> 00:05:34.802 Chicago became a recognized leader, 00:05:34.802 --> 00:05:37.633 tamping down on the urban heat island impact 00:05:37.633 --> 00:05:39.650 through opening cooling centers, 00:05:39.650 --> 00:05:42.859 outreach to vulnerable neighborhoods, planting trees, 00:05:42.859 --> 00:05:45.786 creating cool white or vegetated green roofs. 00:05:45.786 --> 00:05:49.186 This is City Hall's green roof, next to Cook County's [portion of the] roof, 00:05:49.186 --> 00:05:52.946 which is 77 degrees Fahrenheit hotter at the surface. 00:05:52.946 --> 00:05:57.042 Washington, D.C., last year, actually led the nation 00:05:57.042 --> 00:06:00.354 in new green roofs installed, and they're funding this in part 00:06:00.354 --> 00:06:03.808 thanks to a five-cent tax on plastic bags. 00:06:03.808 --> 00:06:06.250 They're splitting the cost of installing these green roofs 00:06:06.250 --> 00:06:08.306 with home and building owners. 00:06:08.306 --> 00:06:10.837 The roofs not only temper urban heat island impact 00:06:10.837 --> 00:06:13.194 but they save energy, and therefore money, 00:06:13.194 --> 00:06:15.347 the emissions that cause climate change, 00:06:15.347 --> 00:06:17.842 and they also reduce stormwater runoff. 00:06:17.842 --> 00:06:22.594 So some solutions to heat can provide for win-win-wins. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:22.594 --> 00:06:26.356 Third, adapting to rising seas. 00:06:26.356 --> 00:06:30.002 Sea level rise threatens coastal ecosystems, agriculture, 00:06:30.002 --> 00:06:33.386 even major cities. This is what one to two meters 00:06:33.386 --> 00:06:36.386 of sea level rise looks like in the Mekong Delta. 00:06:36.386 --> 00:06:39.037 That's where half of Vietnam's rice is grown. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:39.037 --> 00:06:42.170 Infrastructure is going to be affected. 00:06:42.170 --> 00:06:44.690 Airports around the world are located on the coast. 00:06:44.690 --> 00:06:46.454 It makes sense, right? There's open space, 00:06:46.454 --> 00:06:49.359 the planes can take off and land without worrying about 00:06:49.359 --> 00:06:51.574 creating noise or avoiding tall buildings. 00:06:51.574 --> 00:06:54.710 Here's just one example, San Francisco Airport, 00:06:54.710 --> 00:06:57.424 with 16 inches or more of flooding. 00:06:57.424 --> 00:07:00.326 Imagine the staggering cost of protecting 00:07:00.326 --> 00:07:03.680 this vital infrastructure with levees. 00:07:03.680 --> 00:07:04.976 But there might be some changes in store 00:07:04.976 --> 00:07:07.816 that you might not imagine. For example, 00:07:07.816 --> 00:07:10.377 planes require more runway for takeoff 00:07:10.377 --> 00:07:14.243 because the heated, less dense air, provides for less lift. 00:07:14.243 --> 00:07:17.728 San Francisco is also spending 40 million dollars 00:07:17.728 --> 00:07:20.918 to rethink and redesign its water and sewage treatment, 00:07:20.918 --> 00:07:24.248 as water outfall pipes like this one can be flooded with seawater, 00:07:24.248 --> 00:07:27.217 causing backups at the plant, harming the bacteria 00:07:27.217 --> 00:07:28.864 that are needed to treat the waste. 00:07:28.864 --> 00:07:30.832 So these outfall pipes have been retrofitted 00:07:30.832 --> 00:07:34.184 to shut seawater off from entering the system. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:34.184 --> 00:07:37.112 Beyond these technical solutions, our work 00:07:37.112 --> 00:07:38.880 at the Georgetown Climate Center with communities 00:07:38.880 --> 00:07:42.648 encourages them to look at what existing legal and policy tools are available 00:07:42.648 --> 00:07:46.224 and to consider how they can accommodate change. 00:07:46.224 --> 00:07:49.176 For example, in land use, which areas do you want 00:07:49.176 --> 00:07:52.136 to protect, through adding a seawall, for example, 00:07:52.136 --> 00:07:55.912 alter, by raising buildings, or retreat from, 00:07:55.912 --> 00:07:58.720 to allow the migration of important natural systems, 00:07:58.720 --> 00:08:01.447 such as wetlands or beaches? NOTE Paragraph 00:08:01.447 --> 00:08:03.704 Other examples to consider. In the U.K., 00:08:03.704 --> 00:08:07.158 the Thames Barrier protects London from storm surge. 00:08:07.158 --> 00:08:09.704 The Asian Cities Climate [Change] Resilience Network 00:08:09.704 --> 00:08:12.902 is restoring vital ecosystems like forest mangroves. 00:08:12.902 --> 00:08:15.992 These are not only important ecosystems in their own right, 00:08:15.992 --> 00:08:20.288 but they also serve as a buffer to protect inland communities. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:20.288 --> 00:08:24.000 New York City is incredibly vulnerable to storms, 00:08:24.000 --> 00:08:27.683 as you can see from this clever sign, and to sea level rise, 00:08:27.683 --> 00:08:30.843 and to storm surge, as you can see from the subway flooding. 00:08:30.843 --> 00:08:34.253 But back above ground, these raised ventilation grates 00:08:34.253 --> 00:08:36.723 for the subway system show that solutions can be both 00:08:36.723 --> 00:08:39.467 functional and attractive. In fact, in New York, 00:08:39.467 --> 00:08:42.619 San Francisco and London, designers have envisioned 00:08:42.619 --> 00:08:45.507 ways to better integrate the natural and built environments 00:08:45.507 --> 00:08:47.915 with climate change in mind. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:47.915 --> 00:08:50.819 I think these are inspiring examples of what's possible 00:08:50.819 --> 00:08:53.939 when we feel empowered to plan for a world that will be different. 00:08:53.939 --> 00:08:57.004 But now, a word of caution. 00:08:57.004 --> 00:08:59.883 Adaptation's too important to be left to the experts. 00:08:59.883 --> 00:09:03.235 Why? Well, there are no experts. 00:09:03.235 --> 00:09:06.555 We're entering uncharted territory, and yet 00:09:06.555 --> 00:09:10.451 our expertise and our systems are based on the past. 00:09:10.451 --> 00:09:13.331 "Stationarity" is the notion that we can anticipate the future 00:09:13.331 --> 00:09:16.299 based on the past, and plan accordingly, 00:09:16.299 --> 00:09:18.346 and this principle governs much of our engineering, 00:09:18.346 --> 00:09:21.395 our design of critical infrastructure, city water systems, 00:09:21.395 --> 00:09:25.922 building codes, even water rights and other legal precedents. 00:09:25.922 --> 00:09:29.051 But we can simply no longer rely on established norms. 00:09:29.051 --> 00:09:33.411 We're operating outside the bounds of CO2 concentrations 00:09:33.411 --> 00:09:37.918 that the planet has seen for hundreds of thousands of years. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:37.918 --> 00:09:41.231 The larger point I'm trying to make is this. 00:09:41.231 --> 00:09:44.927 It's up to us to look at our homes and our communities, 00:09:44.927 --> 00:09:47.614 our vulnerabilities and our exposures to risk, 00:09:47.614 --> 00:09:51.159 and to find ways to not just survive, but to thrive, 00:09:51.159 --> 00:09:53.903 and it's up to us to plan and to prepare 00:09:53.903 --> 00:09:56.407 and to call on our government leaders and require them 00:09:56.407 --> 00:09:58.559 to do the same, even while they address 00:09:58.559 --> 00:10:01.798 the underlying causes of climate change. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:01.798 --> 00:10:03.454 There are no quick fixes. 00:10:03.454 --> 00:10:06.729 There are no one-size-fits-all solutions. 00:10:06.729 --> 00:10:08.638 We're all learning by doing. 00:10:08.638 --> 00:10:12.743 But the operative word is doing. 00:10:12.743 --> 00:10:14.826 Thank you. (Applause) 00:10:14.826 --> 99:59:59.999 (Applause)