[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.56,0:00:04.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Chris Anderson: So our first speaker\Ngave a TED Talk at TEDGlobal
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.16,0:00:06.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think seven years ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.41,0:00:09.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,His name is Professor Uri Alon,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.38,0:00:12.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the Weizmann Institute of Science.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.06,0:00:16.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, he and his colleagues there\Nhave come up with a powerful idea
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.42,0:00:18.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that addresses this key question:
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.44,0:00:21.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How on earth do we get back to work
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.66,0:00:25.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,without creating a second surge\Nof the infection?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.66,0:00:29.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Uri Alon, welcome to TED.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.18,0:00:33.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Uri Alon: Thank you.\NNice to be here again.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.68,0:00:35.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: It's great to see you again.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.89,0:00:39.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, I guess the key to your idea
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.62,0:00:43.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is this obsession with\Nthe reproduction number R, R-naught.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.78,0:00:46.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If that number is less than one,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.31,0:00:49.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then fewer than one person\Nis infected by a typical person,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.89,0:00:53.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and eventually, the epidemic fades away.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.66,0:00:55.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People are worried that\Nas we come back to work,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.95,0:00:58.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,R will shoot up above one again.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.91,0:01:01.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You have a suggestion\Nfor how we might avoid that.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.35,0:01:03.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is that suggestion?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.12,0:01:06.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: Exactly.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.29,0:01:08.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, we are suggesting a strategy
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.11,0:01:12.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's based on a weak spot\Nbased on the biology of the virus,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.57,0:01:15.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is a cycle of work and lockdown.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.93,0:01:21.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It exploits the vulnerability of the virus\Nin that, when a person gets infected,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.05,0:01:24.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they're not infectious\Nfor about three days.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.14,0:01:26.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you don't infect others\Nfor the first three days,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.62,0:01:29.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and after another two days,\Non average, you get symptoms.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.30,0:01:33.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we're proposing a strategy\Nwhich is four days of work
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.84,0:01:36.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then 10 days of lockdown,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.08,0:01:39.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the next two weeks, again:\Nfour days of work, 10 days of lockdown.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.40,0:01:42.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that way, if a person\Ngets infected at work,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.76,0:01:46.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they reach their peak infectiousness\Nduring lockdown, and that way,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.43,0:01:48.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they avoid infecting many others.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.37,0:01:52.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This restricts the viral transmission.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.51,0:01:55.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Also, just working four days\Nout of two weeks
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.09,0:01:58.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,restricts the amount of time\Nthe virus gets to see many other people,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.42,0:02:00.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's a very powerful effect.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.09,0:02:02.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So everybody works on the same four days,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.15,0:02:04.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,kids go to school on the same four days,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.36,0:02:09.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with all the measures\Nof social distancing and masks, etc,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.07,0:02:11.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then there's a lockdown period.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.40,0:02:14.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: So if you take\Nthe worst-case scenario,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.92,0:02:18.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where you come to work on a Monday morning\Nat the start of your four days,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.50,0:02:22.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you're infected on the subway,\Nsay, on the way to work,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.18,0:02:25.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the theory here is that even\Nby the end of that four days,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.67,0:02:29.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're not really starting\Nto infect your coworkers?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.34,0:02:31.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: That's correct.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.52,0:02:33.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you're infected on the subway,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.13,0:02:36.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so for the first three days or so,\Nyou're in your latent period,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.39,0:02:37.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you don't infect your coworkers,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.97,0:02:40.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you reach your peak\Ninfectiousness at home,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:40.76,0:02:43.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there will be secondary\Ninfections at home,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.11,0:02:46.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and people with symptoms\Ncan self-quarantine,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.71,0:02:50.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and over the long run, you have\Na reproduction number less than one,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.41,0:02:53.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so the epidemic,\Nif you continue these cycles,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:53.14,0:02:55.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will go away.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.42,0:03:01.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: I mean, is it frustrating
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.20,0:03:03.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,at the thought that people\Nare going to say,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:03.32,0:03:05.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Wait -- I don't want\Nto infect people at home,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.56,0:03:07.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'd rather infect people\Nat work than at home."
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.80,0:03:09.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What's the response to that?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.01,0:03:11.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: Yes, absolutely.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.21,0:03:13.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we have to consider the alternatives.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.16,0:03:15.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you open up the economy\Nand there's a second wave,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.68,0:03:19.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you'll get all those infections anyway\Nduring the lockdown that happens,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.30,0:03:22.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,along with the devastating effects\Non the economy, etc.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.49,0:03:24.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, in the long run,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.51,0:03:26.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you do a cyclic strategy like this
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.34,0:03:29.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but with a reproduction\Nnumber that's less than one,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.68,0:03:34.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you avoid, at least with these\Nmathematical models and considerations,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.12,0:03:38.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the much larger number of infections\Nyou'd get if there's a second wave.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.99,0:03:43.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Right. You're serving the needs\Nof your family by -- sorry, go on.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.43,0:03:47.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: Even people who are infected\Ndon't infect everyone at home.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.82,0:03:51.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The attack rates are 10 to 30 percent,\Naccording to several studies.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.87,0:03:54.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Right.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.05,0:03:56.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the hope is that you're\Nserving the needs of your family
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.92,0:03:59.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by engaging in a strategy\Nwhere very few of your fellow workers
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.96,0:04:01.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are going to be infectious anyway,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.87,0:04:04.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that's the plan, but um --
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.24,0:04:06.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: That's right.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.83,0:04:09.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Tell me this, though --\Nbecause four days out of 14,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.56,0:04:11.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,someone's going to say, "Well, great idea,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.67,0:04:15.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but that implies, like,\Na 70 percent loss of productivity
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.05,0:04:16.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.26,0:04:18.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that can't possibly work."
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.12,0:04:20.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think you think that\Nthe productivity loss
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.22,0:04:22.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,need not be anything like that much.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.06,0:04:24.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: That's right,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.34,0:04:26.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and of course, most people\Ndon't work weekends,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:26.61,0:04:29.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so it's four days out of\Nthe 10 work days in the two weeks,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.42,0:04:32.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and once you have\Na predictable schedule
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.54,0:04:33.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of four days at work,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.72,0:04:35.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can work longer hours,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.46,0:04:37.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can design shifts\Nand get higher productivity
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.96,0:04:39.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by prioritizing in those four days
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.66,0:04:42.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,much more than 40 percent of the workdays.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.12,0:04:46.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Yes, so talk through\Nhow that could work.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.26,0:04:49.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, let's imagine,\Nfirst of all, manufacturing,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.01,0:04:52.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is currently shut down.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:52.04,0:04:56.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is the implication here\Nthat a manufacturer could set up
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.74,0:04:59.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two, possibly even three\Nshifts of four days,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.94,0:05:04.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe 35 hours or something of work\Nover those four days
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.62,0:05:09.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and still get a lot of productivity,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.08,0:05:12.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,basically, having the lines\Nalmost running continuously that way?
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.42,0:05:14.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: Exactly.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:14.59,0:05:18.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is a staggered\Nversion of this idea,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.06,0:05:22.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where you take the population,\Ndivide it into two groups or three groups.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.12,0:05:26.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's say one group works four days\Nand then 10 days of lockdown.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.29,0:05:28.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then the other group kicks in.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.59,0:05:32.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This idea was proposed by colleagues\Nat Bar-Ilan University.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.20,0:05:36.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then you get added benefit\Nthat during workdays there's less density.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.42,0:05:37.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's two groups.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.61,0:05:39.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's half the density\Nand less transmission.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:39.83,0:05:44.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you can keep production lines\Nworking almost continuously like that
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.64,0:05:46.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,using this staggered idea.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.20,0:05:53.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: And applying it to thinking\Nabout offices coming back --
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.81,0:05:56.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, it seems to me that,\Nas we've already seen,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.55,0:06:00.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's a lot of productivity\Nthat can happen when you're at home,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.38,0:06:03.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so you could picture on this idea\Nof people doing one set of things
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.94,0:06:06.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,during the four days when they're,\Nsay, back at the office,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.76,0:06:11.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,doing the exposure to each other,\Nsparking off each other,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.36,0:06:14.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the discussions, the brainstorming,\Nall that good stuff,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.97,0:06:18.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while at home, they're then\Ndoing all the things
Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.16,0:06:20.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we've been doing\Nthe last few weeks,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.10,0:06:22.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,kind of working solo.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.15,0:06:24.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How much have you thought about that,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.31,0:06:28.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether it's possible, effectively,\Nto divide work into different types
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.72,0:06:30.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and actually use a strategy like this
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.00,0:06:34.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to maintain almost full\Nor even better productivity?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.90,0:06:38.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: I agree -- for many sectors,\Npeople work at home very effectively,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.30,0:06:40.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we've heard from several industries
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.22,0:06:43.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that productivity actually\Nwent up during lockdown
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.22,0:06:44.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and people working at home.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.63,0:06:47.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you have a schedule, cyclic ____???\N[cyclic exit strategy]
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.28,0:06:48.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you can restrict the amount,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.97,0:06:52.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or you can plan the work\Nwhere you need to be together
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.22,0:06:54.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a very effective way
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.26,0:06:56.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,avoiding a lot of time lost,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.100,0:06:59.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if the person's work\Ncan be more effective at home
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.43,0:07:01.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and more effective at work\Nand get high productivity.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.98,0:07:04.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I should say that some sectors\Nreally need to adjust,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.62,0:07:06.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like hotels, tourism, dining.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.44,0:07:10.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In several industries, this will require\Nmore thought and adjusting.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.18,0:07:12.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But other industries are almost\Nbuilt for ideas like this.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.98,0:07:16.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe it's even something\Nyou can consider after the epidemic,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.95,0:07:19.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because productivity can be\Nat least as high.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.78,0:07:25.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: I mean, I read this and I started\Nthinking about our own organization, TED,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.44,0:07:29.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how, in many ways, you could argue\Nthat could work really well.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.91,0:07:31.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, for one thing,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.11,0:07:33.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's this question\Nabout extroverts and introverts.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.69,0:07:35.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some introverts, if they were honest,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.52,0:07:38.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,might say that this pandemic\Nhas been manna from heaven for them.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.89,0:07:41.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They've found work less stressful.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.82,0:07:44.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They've been able to focus and so forth.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.51,0:07:48.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,With this sort of four days on,\Nfour days off type strategy,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.64,0:07:51.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,perhaps you can imagine a work world
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.12,0:07:54.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's optimized for both\Nintroverts and extroverts?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.45,0:07:57.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: Absolutely.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.63,0:07:58.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, I feel it also.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.92,0:08:01.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Me and my partner,\Nwith different personalities,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.46,0:08:02.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we both teach in universities,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.96,0:08:04.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and teaching through this [?]
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.63,0:08:07.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has [helped me] become\Nproductive in certain ways.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.99,0:08:09.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I agree completely,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.40,0:08:13.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I think harnessing the creativity\Nof people at workplaces,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.36,0:08:17.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're only at the beginning\Nof what these kinds of mixtures can offer.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.76,0:08:21.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: But for people who are\Non the front line,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:21.41,0:08:26.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,again, if you're delivering\Ngoods and so forth
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.85,0:08:29.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you can't do that virtually,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.03,0:08:30.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is there any thought about
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.48,0:08:34.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how a four days on\Nand then isolation strategy,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.19,0:08:36.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how that off time could be used
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.78,0:08:39.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to nonetheless contribute\Nto that person's work
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.04,0:08:41.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,through some form of training?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:41.73,0:08:48.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or is it more just that people would work\Nvery intensely through the four days,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.41,0:08:54.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and maybe people still aren't quite\Nearning their full pay in this scenario,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.12,0:08:56.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's better than complete lockdown,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.06,0:08:59.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's better than going back to work\Nand seeing another surge?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.01,0:09:02.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: That's right.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.19,0:09:03.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So on a society level,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.41,0:09:05.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's better than opening up\Nand seeing another surge,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.98,0:09:07.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which would require complete lockdown.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:07.85,0:09:09.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For people like hospital shifts,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.42,0:09:12.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some hospitals adopted\Nthis kind of program
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.84,0:09:16.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we can protect shifts and avoid mixing.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.14,0:09:18.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It also creates a lot\Nof simplicity and clarity.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.48,0:09:20.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you understand when you're working,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.37,0:09:25.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you have some confidence because\Nthis is based on scientific modeling
Dialogue: 0,0:09:25.12,0:09:28.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the effectiveness of this plan.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.44,0:09:31.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's also equitable in the sense\Nthat everybody gets to go to work,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.88,0:09:34.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[but only?] [in only?][not only?]\Ncertain sectors.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.07,0:09:35.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's transparent, etc.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.56,0:09:38.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[Cross talk]
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.45,0:09:42.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: And is it something\Nthat is best implemented
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.97,0:09:45.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by individual companies?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:45.34,0:09:48.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or is it actually much better\Nimplemented a city at a time
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.44,0:09:50.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or even a nation at a time?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:51.86,0:09:54.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: We think it can work [?].
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.32,0:09:58.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So at certain companies,\Nit's very natural to adopt,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.04,0:09:59.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or at hospitals, schools, etc.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.94,0:10:02.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It can also work at the level\Nof a town or a region,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:02.82,0:10:07.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then we would advise\Ntrying it out for something like a month,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.32,0:10:09.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seeing whether cases rise.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.26,0:10:12.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In that case, you can dial down\Nthe number of workdays.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.02,0:10:15.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or, if cases are declining quickly,\Nyou can add workdays
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.96,0:10:21.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and therefore adapt to the climate\Nand the location where a person is.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.07,0:10:22.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it's quite adaptable.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.16,0:10:27.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: But by aligning work schedules\Nwith schools, for example,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.07,0:10:29.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that suddenly allows parents\Nto go back to work
Dialogue: 0,0:10:29.84,0:10:34.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the days that their kids are at school,\Nand you'd have to try --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:34.44,0:10:35.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: Absolutely.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.63,0:10:38.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: I mean, is the best\Ninstantiation of this
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.25,0:10:41.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that countries literally divide households
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.14,0:10:45.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,into different A and B categories,\Nor something like that,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:45.31,0:10:48.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that that kind\Nof alignment could happen?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:49.17,0:10:50.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: Exactly.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.36,0:10:53.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So you can align different\Nhouseholds, Group A and Group B,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.53,0:10:56.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then the children go to school,\Nthe parents go to work
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.35,0:10:57.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in a synchronized way,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:57.76,0:11:01.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the other group,\Nlet's say, the alternating weeks.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:01.18,0:11:03.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A certain amount of people\Nneed to work all the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:03.70,0:11:07.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Maybe teachers are, like, essential\Nworkers and need to work throughout.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.81,0:11:09.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just like during lockdown situations,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.65,0:11:12.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a certain fraction of the population\Nstill works throughout.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.51,0:11:15.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But a region that does this\Nshould be protected, in a sense,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:15.97,0:11:18.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it has a replication\Nnumber of less than one,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:18.50,0:11:22.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so imported infections\Nalso can't spread very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:23.36,0:11:26.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: And here is the aforementioned\NDavid Biello. David.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.67,0:11:28.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,David Biello: Yes. Hello, everybody.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.56,0:11:31.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Uri, as you can imagine,\Nthere are lot of questions
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.33,0:11:33.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the audience,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.24,0:11:35.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we have a first one
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.08,0:11:39.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,kind of about those workers\Nwho have been marked as essential.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.02,0:11:45.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Can you comment on how this would impact\Nthe health care professionals and others
Dialogue: 0,0:11:45.45,0:11:51.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who may not have time\Nor the flexibility to quarantine
Dialogue: 0,0:11:51.07,0:11:52.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the way you suggest.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:52.85,0:11:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: That's great.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.02,0:11:56.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I want to say that\Nthere's essential workers,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:57.00,0:12:01.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there's people with low income,\Nthat just can't adhere to lockdown
Dialogue: 0,0:12:01.38,0:12:03.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they have to make a living.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:03.08,0:12:08.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And studies show that mobility\N[among] people in the low-income sectors
Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.75,0:12:10.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is larger during lockdown.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.28,0:12:14.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And also, in developing countries,\Npeople just have to go out of the house.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.05,0:12:15.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can't enforce lockdown.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:15.59,0:12:21.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this four-10 kind of strategy can\Nactually make lockdown easier to bear
Dialogue: 0,0:12:21.30,0:12:24.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for people who can still\Nmake a living during those days,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:24.69,0:12:26.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or at least make their own choices
Dialogue: 0,0:12:26.91,0:12:30.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about what fraction to work\Nand what fraction to stay in lockdown.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.36,0:12:33.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Some countries can't get\NR less than one even with lockdown,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.23,0:12:36.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because of this adherence problem\N[in formal sectors] [because of informal sectors,] etc.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:36.56,0:12:40.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We believe that a four-10 cycle\Nmight make it easier to do lockdown
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.93,0:12:44.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and maybe get our infection\Nlevel less than one.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:44.12,0:12:47.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That affects billions\Nof people in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.46,0:12:50.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I hope I answered your question.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.70,0:12:52.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,DB: I think so,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:52.13,0:12:55.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we have another question, I believe,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:55.20,0:12:58.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if that can be queued up,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:58.22,0:12:59.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is:
Dialogue: 0,0:13:00.40,0:13:02.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Any chance you can do the math
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.30,0:13:07.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and quantify the increased risk\Nof this four-10 cycle?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:08.50,0:13:11.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: So the increased risk,\Nwe're saying in our scientific paper,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:11.92,0:13:14.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we did all the sensitivity analyses, etc,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:14.93,0:13:18.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the question is, it's comparing\Nincreased risk comparing to what?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:18.88,0:13:20.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, to the economy:
Dialogue: 0,0:13:21.20,0:13:23.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's possible there will be a second wave.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.42,0:13:26.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I mean, I hope there won't be,\Nbut it certainly is possible,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:26.30,0:13:30.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in that case, it's clear\Nthat a second wave and another lockdown
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.86,0:13:35.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will have worse consequences on health
Dialogue: 0,0:13:35.52,0:13:38.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than a cycle of four-10.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:38.89,0:13:44.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so it's really a question of\Nwhat you're comparing to.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:45.86,0:13:47.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,DB: Sure.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:47.57,0:13:51.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, thank you so much\Nfor sharing this idea, Uri.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:53.17,0:13:55.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Indeed.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:55.53,0:13:56.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,David, stay on.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.70,0:13:58.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But just before you go:
Dialogue: 0,0:13:58.26,0:14:03.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Have any governments\Nexpressed interest in exploring this?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:03.15,0:14:06.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Do you see people considering\Nactually implementing this
Dialogue: 0,0:14:06.08,0:14:07.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as national policy?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.96,0:14:12.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: Yes, we're in touch\Nwith several European countries
Dialogue: 0,0:14:13.02,0:14:16.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and countries in South America\Nand Israel, of course.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:16.73,0:14:20.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Austria has adopted a similar program\Nfor their school system,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:21.88,0:14:26.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is five school days every two weeks.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:26.58,0:14:32.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And several companies and hospitals, etc.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:32.22,0:14:36.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so we're very interested\Nto see how this will play out.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.23,0:14:40.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Well, I love the basic start point
Dialogue: 0,0:14:40.82,0:14:44.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of starting by looking\Nat the enemy's weakness.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:44.23,0:14:47.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And you've got this four-day period
Dialogue: 0,0:14:47.32,0:14:53.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where it's not necessarily\Nthat dangerous after an infection,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:53.09,0:14:55.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if you could figure out\Na way to work then.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.84,0:15:00.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I assume that testing would actually\Nenhance this idea as well a lot, right?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.29,0:15:02.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To test people before they come back --
Dialogue: 0,0:15:02.19,0:15:03.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: It's not predicated on testing.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:03.92,0:15:06.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You don't have to have\Ntesting for this idea,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:06.12,0:15:08.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so that can apply to regions\Nwithout a lot of testing.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.67,0:15:12.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you do have testing, it could help you\Nuse testing in a more effective way
Dialogue: 0,0:15:12.34,0:15:15.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by concentrating testing on people\Nat the end of their 10 lockdown days,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:15.78,0:15:17.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,just as they're about to go to work;
Dialogue: 0,0:15:17.53,0:15:19.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that could make\Neach test more impactful
Dialogue: 0,0:15:19.42,0:15:21.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in terms of reducing\Ntheir reproduction number.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:21.67,0:15:24.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Indeed, instead of having\Nto test the whole population
Dialogue: 0,0:15:24.57,0:15:25.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,every three or four days,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:25.91,0:15:27.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's just once every two weeks.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:27.46,0:15:30.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's a much more imaginable goal.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:31.22,0:15:32.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,UA: Sure.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:32.67,0:15:33.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CA: Yeah.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.94,0:15:37.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, Uri Alon, thank you so much\Nfor spending this time.