0:00:16.970,0:00:18.330
ADAM SANDERSON: All right folks.

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This is Unreasonable Estimates and

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Improbable Goals. My name's Adam Sanderson.

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I'm a full stack developer at LiquidPlanner.

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I've been there for about six, nearly

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seven years, working on Rails, databases,

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like, front end, back end. You name it.

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If you want to, you can find me on

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GitHub. Twitter. These slides are gonna be[br]on Speaker

0:00:39.730,0:00:42.040
Deck. It's all under Adam Sanderson. That[br]makes it

0:00:42.040,0:00:47.019
easy. But more awkward, I write code, or I

0:00:47.019,0:00:50.010
write about code on monkeyandcrow dot com.[br]If you

0:00:50.010,0:00:52.400
like the talks about, like, reading and learning[br]about

0:00:52.400,0:00:55.799
Rails, I'm actually writing a series called[br]reading Rails.

0:00:55.799,0:00:59.080
So go check that out if that's what you're

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in to. And hey, it's RailsConf. You probably[br]are.

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So, like I said, I work for LiquidPlanner.[br]We

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make online project management software. Probably[br]the most interesting

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thing for you guys is that we do probabilistic

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scheduling, which is pretty awesome. So if[br]that sounds

0:01:13.689,0:01:17.869
kind of cool, like everyone else here, we're[br]hiring.

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And I need somebody to come help me build

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new stuff. So really, if you're in Seattle,[br]let

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me know.

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So, you can't really work on project management[br]software

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without thinking about the work of work. Specifically,[br]I'm

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talking about estimating projects, finding[br]the hidden costs involved

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in those, and then dealing with deadlines.[br]Sounds like

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fun, right? Sounds like life.

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All right. How hard would it be? I get

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asked this question all the time. People come[br]up

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to me, and they say, hey Adam, how hard

0:01:52.840,0:01:54.710
would it be? How hard would it be to

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change all of our buttons from red to blue?

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How hard would it be to implement a new,

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like, class of user? How hard would it be

0:02:01.690,0:02:08.399
to implement email integration? What should[br]I do?

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Clarify. Before I tell somebody how hard it[br]would

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be - and, pro tip, they don't care how

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hard you gotta hit the keyboard. What they're[br]actually

0:02:15.370,0:02:17.430
asking is, how long is it gonna take you

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to get this done? Before you tell them, clarify.

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Make sure you know what they want. Make sure

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that what's in your head is what's in their

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head. Because a lot of times when people come

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to us, developers have a very specific vocabulary.[br]Things

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that we think mean one thing mean a different

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thing to somebody in sales, or marketing,[br]or QA

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or support.

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So make sure that you know what they mean

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when they say, hey, how hard would it be

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to integrate email integration? Does that[br]mean sending emails

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out of our system? Does it mean receiving[br]emails

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from someone else? Does that mean a plugin[br]for

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like Outlook or Gmail? If you don't clarify[br]up

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front, you could spend a lot of time wandering

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off into the woods, and when you come back

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with your amazing feature, they're gonna look[br]at it

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and be like, what? What is this? And you'll

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have just wasted, like, an hour. A day. A

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week. Oh, that's gonna suck. So clarify.

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Next, clarify. Ah. Again. So. Look, you know[br]what

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you're doing, now you gotta figure out why[br]you're

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doing it. Ask them. Hey, why do you need

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to me to integrate email integration? Maybe[br]they turn

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around and they say, well, look, we've been[br]getting

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a lot of customers sending us screenshots[br]and it'd

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be nice to just be able to email those

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into the system. Does a better, does a solution

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already exist? If it does, you might be able

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to point them towards that. And a bonus for

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you, now you don't have to do anything.

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Maybe they turn around and they say, yeah,[br]I

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know that that exists. But it's kind of a

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pain to use. Well, now maybe you've found[br]that

0:04:04.250,0:04:06.910
there's a better approach to solving their[br]problem. Maybe

0:04:06.910,0:04:09.659
you just need to fix existing functionality.[br]People come

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to us, all the time, with prescriptions for[br]solutions

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to problems. It's really useful for us to[br]take

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a step back, and before we say, yeah, I'm

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gonna do that, to say, wait, why do you

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need me to do that? Maybe you can help

0:04:23.560,0:04:27.440
them come to a better solution. And, by doing

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this, you're gonna get a better idea of what

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you need to do.

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All right. Once you know the what and you

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know the why, it's time to start thinking[br]about

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estimating how hard it's gonna be. How long[br]it's

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gonna take you. I want you to think about

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the major pieces of work that you're gonna[br]need

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to do. Imagine the project and, instead of[br]thinking

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about it in their terms, in terms of the

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domain of the person asking you, think about[br]it

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in terms of what you have to do.

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Is it gonna require a lot of database work?

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Well, think about the tables. Is it gonna[br]require

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a lot of work in Rails? Think about your

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models, your views, your controllers. Is it[br]gonna require

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a lot of front end work? Well, think about

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the different components on the screen. Break[br]these large

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tasks down into smaller things, and write[br]it down.

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You're gonna need to refer back to this later

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anyways. This is the stuff that you need to

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do in order to, like, service their request.

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Next, sometimes it could be overwhelming to[br]get some

0:05:24.590,0:05:27.590
of these asks from people. You'll find that[br]they

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have so many, like, business rules that they[br]want,

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they've got so many little details that they[br]want

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to impart upon you. It can make it really

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hard for you to see the forest for the

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trees. Step back for a moment. Try and find

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unifying principles in what they're asking[br]for. Is there

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some model that you can make, in your head,

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that explains what they're looking for? It[br]doesn't have

0:05:50.360,0:05:52.190
to be perfect. It's just gotta be enough so

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that you understand what direction to be going[br]in.

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Again, write this stuff down. You'll need[br]it later.

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All right. You've broken stuff down. You've[br]grouped stuff

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back up. It's now in a stage where you

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can sort of wrap your head around it. Think

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about other things that you've done. Have[br]you done

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anything like this before? One of the unique[br]things

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about our profession is that we tend not to

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do the same thing twice, and if we do,

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we're kind of doing it wrong. So, if you

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can, think about similar things. But maybe[br]you haven't.

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Turn and ask one of the other developers in

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your company. Maybe they've worked on this[br]code before.

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Maybe they've dealt with this type of issue[br]before.

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They can help you get a better estimate.

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And on top of that, if they're doing their

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job right, maybe they'll ask you what it is

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that you're trying to do, and they'll ask[br]you

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why. This is awesome, because it turns you[br]around

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and makes you be the person who is asking

0:06:49.949,0:06:53.419
you for work. It's really helpful for clarifying[br]what

0:06:53.419,0:06:55.210
you've got to do.

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Now, there are dozens of different methodologies.[br]Different approaches.

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Different sciences of estimation. Here's what[br]I want you

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to do. Make a guess. That's it. I know.

0:07:11.150,0:07:12.789
You could play planning poker. You could do[br]all

0:07:12.789,0:07:15.630
number of things. But, just make a guess.[br]Here.

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I'm gonna make it flash. There. Isn't that[br]awesome?

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Seriously. Look, an estimate's just an informed[br]guess. A

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lot of times, we put way too much value

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on an estimate. It's OK for you to be

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wrong and it's OK for you to be uncertain.

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In fact, if you're not uncertain, you're probably[br]wrong.

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I want you to quantify that uncertainty. Embrace[br]it.

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Are there things that you're being asked to[br]do

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that you don't know how they're gonna spa-[br]like,

0:07:42.699,0:07:45.910
turn out? Maybe, like, you've got to load[br]a

0:07:45.910,0:07:47.850
whole of data into the database and you're[br]not

0:07:47.850,0:07:50.490
sure if it's gonna handle that. Maybe you've[br]got

0:07:50.490,0:07:53.240
to make some, like, flippy clicky thing that's[br]gonna

0:07:53.240,0:07:56.350
be, like, really hard to implement in Internet[br]Explorer

0:07:56.350,0:07:58.910
8. Do you know how that's gonna work? Maybe

0:07:58.910,0:08:00.580
it will. Maybe it won't.

0:08:00.580,0:08:03.669
Raise these things up. Let other people know.[br]If

0:08:03.669,0:08:05.669
they're asking you to do this work, say, you

0:08:05.669,0:08:08.490
know, I'm not really sure about how this is

0:08:08.490,0:08:11.610
gonna impact our database. I'm not really[br]sure whether

0:08:11.610,0:08:14.319
IE 8's gonna support this user interaction[br]you're asking

0:08:14.319,0:08:18.250
for. This is helpful, because it gives the[br]other

0:08:18.250,0:08:20.889
person a better understanding of what you[br]need to

0:08:20.889,0:08:21.720
be doing.

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Now, next, play a spread. Tell them a story.

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If everything goes well, I think that this[br]might

0:08:32.099,0:08:34.979
be done in a week. If I need to

0:08:34.979,0:08:38.190
denormalize my database, if I need to do something

0:08:38.190,0:08:41.139
really crazy to get this supported cross-browser,[br]this could

0:08:41.139,0:08:44.569
take me four weeks. Look, it's a lot easier

0:08:44.569,0:08:46.870
for you to hit an estimate, a range, than

0:08:46.870,0:08:49.189
it is for you to give them one hard

0:08:49.189,0:08:52.579
number. So that's great for us. But it's also

0:08:52.579,0:08:54.489
good for the person asking you to do the

0:08:54.489,0:08:57.040
work. Because you're giving them a story about[br]the

0:08:57.040,0:09:00.459
future. You're telling them useful information[br]about how this

0:09:00.459,0:09:04.819
could play out. And if they've got that information,

0:09:04.819,0:09:08.389
they can start making better, better use of[br]that.

0:09:08.389,0:09:10.559
They can plan better based on that. And it

0:09:10.559,0:09:13.779
starts a better dialogue between you.

0:09:13.779,0:09:17.720
But you're not done there. You've got to deal

0:09:17.720,0:09:24.720
with this uncertainty. Nobody likes to get[br]bad news.

0:09:25.360,0:09:28.369
Nobody likes to find out that the project[br]is

0:09:28.369,0:09:30.730
doomed. But you know when they like to hear

0:09:30.730,0:09:33.160
that? Never. OK. Do you know when they'll[br]tolerate

0:09:33.160,0:09:36.360
it? They'll tolerate it right at the very[br]beginning.

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You know when they won't tolerate it? In the

0:09:38.529,0:09:39.579
eleventh hour.

0:09:39.579,0:09:42.550
Oh, man. Are you gonna be ever so happy

0:09:42.550,0:09:46.050
when your fellow developer says, hey, guys,[br]I know

0:09:46.050,0:09:49.209
we're gonna ship, but I just checked the clicky

0:09:49.209,0:09:53.170
flippy thing in IE-8, and it doesn't work.

0:09:53.170,0:09:55.879
Wait, we're supposed to ship when?

0:09:55.879,0:09:58.319
Nobody wants to find out that the uncertainty[br]got

0:09:58.319,0:10:01.279
left to the end. So do it first. It's

0:10:01.279,0:10:04.980
really hard to do this, but deal with uncertainty

0:10:04.980,0:10:07.720
up front. That way, when you find out that

0:10:07.720,0:10:10.459
something's going to take a long time, you[br]can

0:10:10.459,0:10:12.899
communicate that back to people, and you guys[br]can

0:10:12.899,0:10:15.739
adjust your plans to accommodate that.

0:10:15.739,0:10:17.290
I know. We always want to do the fun

0:10:17.290,0:10:19.399
things first. I want to like, jump in and

0:10:19.399,0:10:21.949
do the stuff that I know really well first,

0:10:21.949,0:10:24.689
because I feel like I'm making progress. That's[br]a

0:10:24.689,0:10:28.939
great way to set yourself up for failure later.

0:10:28.939,0:10:32.839
Now, doing that alone isn't enough.

0:10:32.839,0:10:39.259
You remember that estimate? Change it. Change[br]it continuously.

0:10:39.259,0:10:41.480
As you learn new things, as you figure out

0:10:41.480,0:10:44.459
the uncertain things, and as you make progress,[br]circle

0:10:44.459,0:10:47.910
back and tell anybody who depends on you how

0:10:47.910,0:10:51.059
long this is gonna take. Give them your vision

0:10:51.059,0:10:53.619
of the future. Give them your mental model[br]of

0:10:53.619,0:10:56.739
what the risks are. Give them the understanding[br]that

0:10:56.739,0:10:59.420
you have, right now, about what you think[br]is

0:10:59.420,0:11:01.629
gonna happen.

0:11:01.629,0:11:03.529
Communicate often.

0:11:03.529,0:11:08.459
All right. Let's talk about the Dark Arts[br]of

0:11:08.459,0:11:11.670
project management, for a moment. Look, you[br]know what

0:11:11.670,0:11:13.420
you're doing. You know why you're doing it.[br]You've

0:11:13.420,0:11:18.480
got an estimate and now. Oh. Shoot.

0:11:18.480,0:11:23.299
We can get screwed, as developers. We think[br]that

0:11:23.299,0:11:28.709
we're all logical. That we're sane. Now. This[br]ever

0:11:28.709,0:11:30.699
happen to you? It happens to me all the

0:11:30.699,0:11:32.360
time. Somebody comes up to me and they say,

0:11:32.360,0:11:33.619
hey, Adam, how long's it gonna take? And I

0:11:33.619,0:11:35.660
say, it's gonna take about three weeks. And[br]they

0:11:35.660,0:11:37.569
say, look, we need this done really quickly.[br]Could

0:11:37.569,0:11:39.989
you maybe do it in one? And I say.

0:11:39.989,0:11:43.119
Well. Oh. How about two weeks?

0:11:43.119,0:11:44.509
I thought that I was just being nice. I

0:11:44.509,0:11:46.739
thought that I was just splitting the difference,[br]right.

0:11:46.739,0:11:48.089
Wrong. I just screwed myself.

0:11:48.089,0:11:52.360
It's natural for people to haggle. But you[br]don't

0:11:52.360,0:11:55.939
win when people are estima- or bargaining[br]over estimates.

0:11:55.939,0:11:58.939
Look, you're estimate is your best understanding[br]of what

0:11:58.939,0:12:01.739
the future holds. What made it go from three

0:12:01.739,0:12:04.759
weeks to two weeks? How did you suddenly manage

0:12:04.759,0:12:08.639
to shave off a whole week of work in

0:12:08.639,0:12:11.089
five seconds? Cause I want to know. I need

0:12:11.089,0:12:12.819
to be able to do that later, so you

0:12:12.819,0:12:14.239
come up and you tell me.

0:12:14.239,0:12:17.220
No, look, you can't negotiate time. But you[br]can

0:12:17.220,0:12:21.920
negotiate features. And as you learn more[br]about the

0:12:21.920,0:12:25.739
project, you can re-estimate. Moral of this[br]story, don't

0:12:25.739,0:12:28.410
give people estimates that you think are gonna[br]make

0:12:28.410,0:12:30.989
them happy. Give them estimates that you think[br]are

0:12:30.989,0:12:32.100
true.

0:12:32.100,0:12:33.589
If they keep badgering you about it, point[br]it

0:12:33.589,0:12:37.910
out. Say, hey, look, I know what you're doing

0:12:37.910,0:12:42.290
here. I see what you're doing. Estimation[br]bargaining. It's

0:12:42.290,0:12:44.470
not gonna work. Not only is it not gonna

0:12:44.470,0:12:46.839
work for me, it's not gonna work for you.

0:12:46.839,0:12:50.009
If you give into this kind of thing, you're

0:12:50.009,0:12:53.720
actually setting up not just yourself for[br]trouble but

0:12:53.720,0:12:56.869
your team. The people who rely on you. And,

0:12:56.869,0:12:58.369
whether or not the person asking you to do

0:12:58.369,0:13:00.389
the work knows it, you're setting them up[br]for

0:13:00.389,0:13:03.299
failure as well. Because they depend on that[br]estimate

0:13:03.299,0:13:05.269
that you just gave them.

0:13:05.269,0:13:07.569
So, you know what you're doing. You know why

0:13:07.569,0:13:09.809
you're doing it. You've got an estimate. You[br]defended

0:13:09.809,0:13:13.350
it. Maybe you shouldn't do it at all. There

0:13:13.350,0:13:17.730
are hidden costs involved in everything. Like[br]complexity costs.

0:13:17.730,0:13:22.319
Look, some features that we build incur future,[br]incur

0:13:22.319,0:13:25.389
costs on all the future work that we do.

0:13:25.389,0:13:27.879
For instance, if you build a new RESTful API,

0:13:27.879,0:13:31.319
great idea. If you build a new, like, axis

0:13:31.319,0:13:34.350
controls, you're just dropping in can-can.[br]If you build,

0:13:34.350,0:13:39.970
like, a new mo- native mobile client. Yeah.[br]You're

0:13:39.970,0:13:44.139
not done there. From now on, every new feature

0:13:44.139,0:13:47.230
that you implement has to take those old features

0:13:47.230,0:13:50.379
into account. So what you just did is you

0:13:50.379,0:13:53.339
made it so that your future work, future work,

0:13:53.339,0:13:55.529
is gonna hate past you.

0:13:55.529,0:14:00.329
You're just incurring new costs for the future.[br]So

0:14:00.329,0:14:03.149
watch out for these cost-cutting concerns.[br]they can really

0:14:03.149,0:14:04.679
bite us sometimes.

0:14:04.679,0:14:07.869
Now, there are ways to do this that are

0:14:07.869,0:14:09.720
gonna cut down on those costs. You can never

0:14:09.720,0:14:12.809
get rid of them entirely. But, if you want

0:14:12.809,0:14:16.379
to, do the extra engineering up front, factor[br]that

0:14:16.379,0:14:19.439
into your original estimate. Let the people[br]know that

0:14:19.439,0:14:22.749
you're gonna need a little bit more time.

0:14:22.749,0:14:25.839
What about operational costs? Look, are you[br]introducing new

0:14:25.839,0:14:27.910
moving parts? You're gonna build a new job[br]queue.

0:14:27.910,0:14:30.290
You're gonna throw resq and redis in place.[br]They're

0:14:30.290,0:14:32.929
awesome tech. But guess what? They're costly.

0:14:32.929,0:14:35.879
How are you gonna test this in production[br]server?

0:14:35.879,0:14:38.059
How are you gonna monitor it? How are you

0:14:38.059,0:14:40.089
gonna deploy this? How are you gonna make[br]sure

0:14:40.089,0:14:42.660
that it's running every time you spin up a

0:14:42.660,0:14:44.639
new server?

0:14:44.639,0:14:49.499
It's not necessarily hard. But it does take[br]time.

0:14:49.499,0:14:51.679
And once you've done it, it still takes time.

0:14:51.679,0:14:56.459
And you know what? When resq goes down, who

0:14:56.459,0:14:59.359
are they gonna call? They're gonna call you.[br]You're

0:14:59.359,0:15:01.569
the one that put it in place, right. So

0:15:01.569,0:15:04.169
dealing with that is gonna take more time[br]out

0:15:04.169,0:15:06.939
of what you consider to be your budget for

0:15:06.939,0:15:10.239
developing.

0:15:10.239,0:15:13.720
Support costs. These are awesome. There are[br]a lot

0:15:13.720,0:15:15.720
of things that we can do as developers that

0:15:15.720,0:15:18.100
are just really easy. We can knock out a

0:15:18.100,0:15:23.220
feature in like ten minutes. The downside?[br]Nobody understands

0:15:23.220,0:15:25.459
how that feature works.

0:15:25.459,0:15:28.649
So what if your users don't get it? Like,

0:15:28.649,0:15:30.549
you built this awesome thing, and they've[br]got no

0:15:30.549,0:15:32.339
clue what it does. Who are they gonna talk

0:15:32.339,0:15:34.569
to? Well, if you've got one, they're gonna[br]talk

0:15:34.569,0:15:37.089
to your support team. I hope your support[br]team

0:15:37.089,0:15:40.209
understands - your support team doesn't understand[br]it. OK.

0:15:40.209,0:15:44.230
Awesome. Your support team's now talking to[br]you.

0:15:44.230,0:15:46.779
And that takes time that you're gonna be not

0:15:46.779,0:15:50.369
able to develop in. What if your business,[br]as

0:15:50.369,0:15:56.649
a whole, doesn't get it? Meetings. That's[br]what. And

0:15:56.649,0:15:58.449
you know what meetings mean? It's not just[br]your

0:15:58.449,0:16:01.529
time that's being used up then, it's the entire

0:16:01.529,0:16:04.439
company. Everyone around that table? You're[br]sinking more and

0:16:04.439,0:16:06.600
more costs into this.

0:16:06.600,0:16:10.290
So, again, you can combat some of this, but

0:16:10.290,0:16:13.299
go back, update those estimates, to factor[br]this in.

0:16:13.299,0:16:18.959
What about opportunity costs? Slightly different[br]thing. But think

0:16:18.959,0:16:20.970
about this. You can really only do one thing

0:16:20.970,0:16:24.809
at a time. So what's the highest priority[br]thing

0:16:24.809,0:16:27.009
for you to be doing right now? What's the

0:16:27.009,0:16:29.399
highest priority thing for your team? For[br]your business

0:16:29.399,0:16:32.819
as a whole? Because, whatever you're doing[br]now is

0:16:32.819,0:16:35.489
excluding every other feature that you could[br]be working

0:16:35.489,0:16:40.220
on right now.

0:16:40.220,0:16:43.350
Think about it. Prioritize all the things[br]that you

0:16:43.350,0:16:45.019
would like to be doing. All the things that

0:16:45.019,0:16:47.029
you know you should be doing. Make sure that

0:16:47.029,0:16:51.189
this is actually the most important thing.[br]Not just

0:16:51.189,0:16:53.929
the most immediate thing that you need to[br]deal

0:16:53.929,0:16:54.660
with.

0:16:54.660,0:16:58.189
Look, I'm not saying don't do anything, but[br]weigh

0:16:58.189,0:17:03.100
the costs. Understand them. Recognize them.[br]Everything that we

0:17:03.100,0:17:07.240
do as developers costs us down the road. Choose

0:17:07.240,0:17:09.449
which ones you're willing to pay.

0:17:09.449,0:17:14.089
All right. More Dark Arts, cause I love these.

0:17:14.089,0:17:17.040
This one's the most insidious. This one trips[br]us

0:17:17.040,0:17:21.299
up as developers, because we've got egos,[br]and it's

0:17:21.299,0:17:25.699
really easy to manipulate us. This happen[br]to you?

0:17:25.699,0:17:26.970
Somebody comes up to you, they say, hey, how

0:17:26.970,0:17:28.049
long's it gonna take? And you say, I don't

0:17:28.049,0:17:30.519
know, about a week? And they say, really?[br]Oh,

0:17:30.519,0:17:34.840
and they look so disappointed. And then they[br]say,

0:17:34.840,0:17:38.409
I thought you were smarter than that.

0:17:38.409,0:17:42.630
Wow. That hurts. Then, it's like, kicking[br]you when

0:17:42.630,0:17:45.720
you're down. They say, oh, I'll go ask her.

0:17:45.720,0:17:49.049
I'll go ask the intern. She seems pretty smart.

0:17:49.049,0:17:52.179
Ah. Even worse. You know what happens next?[br]I

0:17:52.179,0:17:54.880
don't know about you. But me? I start begging

0:17:54.880,0:17:56.740
to do the work. I'm like, you know what?

0:17:56.740,0:17:59.360
Did I say a week? I meant maybe, like,

0:17:59.360,0:18:00.080
three days.

0:18:00.080,0:18:03.019
Whoa, stop going towards the intern. One day?[br]I'll

0:18:03.019,0:18:05.929
have it to you by noon.

0:18:05.929,0:18:08.090
Fuck.

0:18:08.090,0:18:12.789
Aw. Don't let your ego get you into trouble.

0:18:12.789,0:18:15.929
Stand by those estimates. Really, the best[br]thing that

0:18:15.929,0:18:18.360
we can be as developers, in this case, is

0:18:18.360,0:18:21.850
have a little humility. And if you see somebody

0:18:21.850,0:18:24.610
trying to do this to you, call their bluff.

0:18:24.610,0:18:27.389
Like, they're not really gonna go to the intern.

0:18:27.389,0:18:29.240
Well, they might. And it might be a learning

0:18:29.240,0:18:30.960
experience for everyone.

0:18:30.960,0:18:35.220
But name this. Say, I know what you're doing

0:18:35.220,0:18:37.909
there. It's not gonna work on me. Stand up

0:18:37.909,0:18:42.429
for yourself. And if you can't, find a new

0:18:42.429,0:18:43.149
job.

0:18:43.149,0:18:47.350
All right. Deadlines. Like, I've got one coming[br]up

0:18:47.350,0:18:52.759
in eleven minutes.

0:18:52.759,0:18:57.190
Deadlines come in all forms. They come in[br]a

0:18:57.190,0:19:00.740
spectrum. From soft deadlines to hard deadlines.[br]Soft deadlines

0:19:00.740,0:19:03.409
are things like goals. They're things we would[br]like

0:19:03.409,0:19:06.130
to achieve. For instance, we would like to[br]ship

0:19:06.130,0:19:08.190
this by the end of the week. We would

0:19:08.190,0:19:11.190
like to get this out by, I don't know,

0:19:11.190,0:19:14.000
this next conference. Hey, we're gonna try[br]to get

0:19:14.000,0:19:17.570
this out for the customer by Q1.

0:19:17.570,0:19:23.070
Hard deadlines are things like, RailsConf.[br]For me, anyways.

0:19:23.070,0:19:28.220
Can you imagine, RubyCentral sending out an[br]email. They

0:19:28.220,0:19:31.149
say, hey guys, funny story. Adam didn't do[br]his

0:19:31.149,0:19:37.429
slides, so we're postponing RubyConf by, like,[br]a week.

0:19:37.429,0:19:38.720
Just change your reservations.

0:19:38.720,0:19:41.149
Yeah. I'm not DHH, so I can't get away

0:19:41.149,0:19:42.380
with that.

0:19:42.380,0:19:48.130
It's a hard deadline. So when hard deadlines[br]come

0:19:48.130,0:19:51.460
up. Actually, when all deadlines come up,[br]what do

0:19:51.460,0:19:54.259
we do? You gotta deal with it. Ignoring it's

0:19:54.259,0:19:59.179
not gonna work, and panicking also doesn't[br]work. So,

0:19:59.179,0:20:01.070
we've really got four options. The first two[br]are

0:20:01.070,0:20:03.710
ones that we as developers think that we really

0:20:03.710,0:20:06.419
like, and the second two are ones that managers

0:20:06.419,0:20:09.440
think that they really like. Nobody really[br]likes any

0:20:09.440,0:20:12.220
of these options, when you get down to it.

0:20:12.220,0:20:15.600
But, if it's a soft deadline, if it's just

0:20:15.600,0:20:20.929
a goal, you guys can ship late. You can

0:20:20.929,0:20:23.980
miss. Maybe. It's probably not the end of[br]the

0:20:23.980,0:20:27.500
world. Don't do this all the time, cause you're

0:20:27.500,0:20:32.480
gonna look like an idiot. But recognize. Weigh[br]the

0:20:32.480,0:20:37.570
balance, weigh the thingies that you've gotta[br]weigh. I

0:20:37.570,0:20:39.320
don't know.

0:20:39.320,0:20:42.889
Yeah. This talk is about work. Not about how

0:20:42.889,0:20:45.110
to give a good talk.

0:20:45.110,0:20:51.330
Rad. So, yeah. Sometimes you can ship late.[br]Of

0:20:51.330,0:20:53.600
course, there are hard deadlines, right. There[br]are things

0:20:53.600,0:20:58.350
like RubyConf. And I can't miss this deadline.[br]If

0:20:58.350,0:21:00.600
I did, we would all be standing here and

0:21:00.600,0:21:03.559
I would be stammering like I was. So what

0:21:03.559,0:21:04.690
else can we do?

0:21:04.690,0:21:07.759
Well, we can cut scope. We can cut features.

0:21:07.759,0:21:13.840
Like, honestly, prioritize the things that[br]you've gotta do.

0:21:13.840,0:21:16.470
Figure out what you can get done by the

0:21:16.470,0:21:19.220
deadline. Cut the rest.

0:21:19.220,0:21:23.330
For instance, I illustrated like all of these[br]slides,

0:21:23.330,0:21:25.610
except for, I got about here and I ran

0:21:25.610,0:21:30.159
out of time. So I cut my little illustration.

0:21:30.159,0:21:36.909
One of the things that is scary about this,

0:21:36.909,0:21:40.590
though, is that some of the things that get

0:21:40.590,0:21:43.909
cut are the things that we, as developers,[br]think

0:21:43.909,0:21:50.909
are important. Performance. Testing. Correctness.[br]All these things can

0:21:55.659,0:21:57.990
get cut if you're not careful. So if you

0:21:57.990,0:22:01.710
value that, make sure that it's put high in

0:22:01.710,0:22:04.490
your priority. Make sure that you guard that[br]against

0:22:04.490,0:22:06.429
the deadline.

0:22:06.429,0:22:10.769
OK. Another option. If you're not gonna get[br]it

0:22:10.769,0:22:13.230
done and you can't ship later and you can't

0:22:13.230,0:22:16.769
cut features, well you can add more people,[br]right?

0:22:16.769,0:22:19.259
Well, you could go read the Mythical Man Month,

0:22:19.259,0:22:23.240
but basically boils down to this. Unless you've[br]got

0:22:23.240,0:22:29.190
a project where everybody can work completely[br]independently, you're

0:22:29.190,0:22:32.539
gonna have to start talking to each other.[br]Eh.

0:22:32.539,0:22:35.919
It's kind of uncomfortable.

0:22:35.919,0:22:40.320
So, I'm about to miss my deadline. They pull

0:22:40.320,0:22:42.299
you in to work with me. Now you and

0:22:42.299,0:22:44.129
I have to start talking. We've gotta make[br]sure

0:22:44.129,0:22:46.799
that we aren't gonna be stepping on each other's

0:22:46.799,0:22:48.590
toes. We've got to keep each other appraised[br]of

0:22:48.590,0:22:51.679
the situation. We've gotta understand which[br]direction we're both

0:22:51.679,0:22:53.879
going in.

0:22:53.879,0:22:56.940
That adds overhead. And if you're splitting[br]up work

0:22:56.940,0:23:00.409
between two people, it means that you're gonna[br]start,

0:23:00.409,0:23:02.490
like, depending on the other person to get[br]things

0:23:02.490,0:23:05.169
done. And if I'm waiting on you and I'm

0:23:05.169,0:23:08.230
twiddling my thumbs, that's sort of wasted[br]time. That's

0:23:08.230,0:23:10.889
time that's not actually going towards getting[br]the work

0:23:10.889,0:23:12.409
out.

0:23:12.409,0:23:17.480
So, adding more people sometimes works. But[br]sometimes, it's

0:23:17.480,0:23:20.210
just gonna make everything go more slowly.

0:23:20.210,0:23:24.179
Oh, and if you do add more people, make

0:23:24.179,0:23:28.169
sure they get along. Cause nothing is more[br]awkward

0:23:28.169,0:23:32.149
than running up against a deadline, working[br]with somebody

0:23:32.149,0:23:34.350
who you want to punch. Like, this is how

0:23:34.350,0:23:37.320
sparks fly, right? You don't want to do this.

0:23:37.320,0:23:38.850
All right.

0:23:38.850,0:23:42.870
The final way that you can deal with a

0:23:42.870,0:23:45.049
deadline. If you can't two people to do the

0:23:45.049,0:23:47.929
work twice as fast, maybe you can make one

0:23:47.929,0:23:53.210
person work twice as hard. Ah. This really[br]sucks.

0:23:53.210,0:23:54.669
And I'll tell you why.

0:23:54.669,0:24:01.429
It works. It can. Honestly. But it's not sustainable.

0:24:01.429,0:24:03.659
And I don't think any of us enjoy it.

0:24:03.659,0:24:05.629
Look, think about this. You've got eight hours[br]to

0:24:05.629,0:24:07.070
work. You've got eight hours to sleep. And[br]then

0:24:07.070,0:24:09.249
you've got eight hours for your daily commute,[br]for

0:24:09.249,0:24:11.620
cleaning up after your dog, for cooking dinner,[br]for

0:24:11.620,0:24:14.149
spending time with your friends, your family,[br]for reading

0:24:14.149,0:24:21.149
seventeenth century poetry.

0:24:21.200,0:24:23.590
Where's that overtime gonna come out of? I[br]gotta

0:24:23.590,0:24:27.570
hint for you. It's not coming out of work.

0:24:27.570,0:24:34.570
Bummer. OK, your only two remaining options[br]are sleep

0:24:34.570,0:24:38.039
and what I would like to call life. So,

0:24:38.039,0:24:41.409
if that time's coming out of sleep, you're[br]gonna

0:24:41.409,0:24:46.970
be tired. You're not gonna be very proficient.[br]You're

0:24:46.970,0:24:48.850
not gonna be thinking straight.

0:24:48.850,0:24:52.610
We make the stupidest mistakes when we're[br]up at

0:24:52.610,0:24:58.879
3 AM pounding on our keyboards. So quality[br]takes

0:24:58.879,0:25:05.360
a hit. Shoot. Well, OK. What about life?

0:25:05.360,0:25:06.759
Use up a little bit of life to get

0:25:06.759,0:25:10.740
this out the door. This, this is the path

0:25:10.740,0:25:17.320
to burn out. To depression. Use it very sparingly.

0:25:17.320,0:25:20.299
Use it wisely. Think to yourself, is this[br]more

0:25:20.299,0:25:23.519
important than cleaning up after my dog? Is[br]this

0:25:23.519,0:25:28.889
more important than spending time with my[br]kids? Depends

0:25:28.889,0:25:34.620
on how much you like your kids, right.

0:25:34.620,0:25:36.940
Just be careful. That's all I can say.

0:25:36.940,0:25:39.129
All right. Let's talk about one more of the

0:25:39.129,0:25:45.370
Dark Arts. Deadline hardening. This is the[br]magical thing.

0:25:45.370,0:25:47.299
Whoops. I don't want to show this to you

0:25:47.299,0:25:50.049
yet. I gotta tell you about it first. Because,

0:25:50.049,0:25:51.929
here's what I love about this one. It happens

0:25:51.929,0:25:54.799
to us all the time, and every time it

0:25:54.799,0:25:58.370
does, we're like, totally surprised that it[br]happened. We're

0:25:58.370,0:26:01.620
like where? Where did that come from? And[br]I'm

0:26:01.620,0:26:04.679
like, what? Didn't this happen to you last[br]week?

0:26:04.679,0:26:07.600
Or yesterday? All right.

0:26:07.600,0:26:10.190
Here's roughly how it goes.

0:26:10.190,0:26:11.570
Somebody comes up to you and they're like,[br]hey,

0:26:11.570,0:26:13.249
let's try to release by the end of the

0:26:13.249,0:26:16.049
month. And you're like, um, I don't think[br]we

0:26:16.049,0:26:18.779
can actually do that. But I'll try.

0:26:18.779,0:26:20.730
OK, and you go back to your keyboard really

0:26:20.730,0:26:26.740
quick, right. You know. Clock spins. Pages[br]fly off

0:26:26.740,0:26:31.309
the calendar. Eighties work montage. All of[br]a sudden,

0:26:31.309,0:26:33.450
manager comes back and they're like, hey,[br]we need

0:26:33.450,0:26:35.549
to release by the end of the month. And

0:26:35.549,0:26:39.279
you're like, wait, what? Why? Why do we need

0:26:39.279,0:26:40.779
to release by the end of the month? And

0:26:40.779,0:26:42.980
they're like, we've got customers waiting[br]on it now.

0:26:42.980,0:26:46.240
It's like, what? Why, why did you promise[br]that

0:26:46.240,0:26:49.309
to them? And I'll tell you why. They heard

0:26:49.309,0:26:51.769
you say that you were going to try to

0:26:51.769,0:26:53.730
do it by the end of the month. Now,

0:26:53.730,0:26:56.179
I know that what you said, in your head,

0:26:56.179,0:26:58.919
was hey. Get out of here. I know that

0:26:58.919,0:27:01.429
what you said was, leave me alone, I gotta

0:27:01.429,0:27:03.870
code. I know that what you said was, I

0:27:03.870,0:27:07.870
don't see you.

0:27:07.870,0:27:11.710
But what they heard is, I'm on it.

0:27:11.710,0:27:13.480
It's a bit of wishful thinking on their part,

0:27:13.480,0:27:17.370
but it's true. Look, don't commit to making[br]any

0:27:17.370,0:27:21.009
deadlines that you don't think that you can[br]meet.

0:27:21.009,0:27:24.090
And saying that you'll try is committing.

0:27:24.090,0:27:26.929
Look, people are less likely to turn a goal,

0:27:26.929,0:27:30.610
a soft deadline, into a promise, a hard deadline,

0:27:30.610,0:27:32.649
if they think it's risky. When do they think

0:27:32.649,0:27:35.509
it's risky? They think it's risky when they[br]know

0:27:35.509,0:27:38.820
that there's uncertainty. They know it's risky[br]when they

0:27:38.820,0:27:40.480
know that the amount of work that you've got

0:27:40.480,0:27:44.669
to do is large. And that you're likely to

0:27:44.669,0:27:46.840
go over the deadline.

0:27:46.840,0:27:51.360
So, communicate your status and risk often.

0:27:51.360,0:27:52.869
Communicate uncertainty.

0:27:52.869,0:27:57.169
If you take nothing else away from this, communicate.

0:27:57.169,0:28:00.350
Make sure that other people understand what[br]your view

0:28:00.350,0:28:03.080
of the world is right now. Because if you

0:28:03.080,0:28:07.509
don't, that's how you're gonna end up with[br]unreasonable

0:28:07.509,0:28:11.399
estimates and. The other thing in my title.[br]I

0:28:11.399,0:28:13.960
can't remember it. Awesome.

0:28:13.960,0:28:17.619
That's my talk. You guys have any questions?[br]Wait.

0:28:17.619,0:28:17.990
Clap first.