[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.00,0:00:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We are here today
Dialogue: 0,0:00:02.00,0:00:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because [the] United Nations
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.00,0:00:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have defined goals
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.00,0:00:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the progress of countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:08.00,0:00:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're called Millennium Development Goals.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.00,0:00:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the reason I really like these goals
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.00,0:00:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that there are eight of them.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.00,0:00:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And by specifying eight different goals,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.00,0:00:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the United Nations has said
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.00,0:00:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that there are so many things needed
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.00,0:00:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to change in a country
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.00,0:00:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in order to get the good life for people.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.00,0:00:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Look here -- you have to end poverty,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.00,0:00:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,education, gender,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.00,0:00:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,child and maternal health,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.00,0:00:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,control infections, protect the environment
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.00,0:00:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and get the good global links between nations
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.00,0:00:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in every aspect
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.00,0:00:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from aid to trade.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.00,0:00:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a second reason I like these development goals,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.00,0:00:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that is because each and every one is measured.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.00,0:00:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Take child mortality;
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.00,0:00:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the aim here is to reduce child mortality
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.00,0:00:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by two-thirds,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.00,0:00:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from 1990 to 2015.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:59.00,0:01:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's a four percent reduction per year --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.00,0:01:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this, with measuring.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.00,0:01:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's what makes the difference
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.00,0:01:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between political talking like this
Dialogue: 0,0:01:09.00,0:01:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and really going for the important thing,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.00,0:01:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a better life for people.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.00,0:01:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what I'm so happy about with this
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.00,0:01:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that we have already documented
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.00,0:01:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that there are many countries
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.00,0:01:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in Asia, in the Middle East,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.00,0:01:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in Latin America and East Europe
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.00,0:01:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that [are] reducing with this rate.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.00,0:01:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And even mighty Brazil is going down with five percent per year,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.00,0:01:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Turkey with seven percent per year.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.00,0:01:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So there's good news.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:34.00,0:01:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But then I hear people saying, "There is no progress in Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:37.00,0:01:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there's not even statistics on Africa
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.00,0:01:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to know what is happening."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:41.00,0:01:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'll prove them wrong on both points.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.00,0:01:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Come with me to the wonderful world of statistics.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.00,0:01:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I bring you to the webpage, ChildMortality.org,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.00,0:01:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where you can take deaths in children
Dialogue: 0,0:01:52.00,0:01:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,below five years of age for all countries --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.00,0:01:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's done by U.N. specialists.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.00,0:01:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I will take Kenya as an example.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.00,0:02:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here you see the data.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.00,0:02:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Don't panic -- don't panic now, I'll help you through this.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.00,0:02:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It looks nasty, like in college
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.00,0:02:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you didn't like statistics.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.00,0:02:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But first thing, when you see dots like this,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.00,0:02:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have to ask yourself:
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.00,0:02:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from where do the data come?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.00,0:02:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is the origin of the data?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.00,0:02:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Is it so that in Kenya,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.00,0:02:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there are doctors and other specialists
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.00,0:02:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who write the death certificate at the death of the child
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.00,0:02:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's sent to the statistical office?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.00,0:02:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No -- low-income countries like Kenya
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.00,0:02:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,still don't have that level of organization.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.00,0:02:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It exists, but it's not complete
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.00,0:02:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because so many deaths occur in the home
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.00,0:02:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with the family,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.00,0:02:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's not registered.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.00,0:02:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What we rely on is not an incomplete system.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.00,0:02:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have interviews, we have surveys.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.00,0:02:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this is highly professional
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.00,0:02:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,female interviewers
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.00,0:02:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who sit down for one hour with a woman
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.00,0:02:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and ask her about [her] birth history.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.00,0:02:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How many children did you have?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.00,0:02:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Are they alive?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.00,0:02:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If they died, at what age and what year?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.00,0:03:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then this is done in a representative sample
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.00,0:03:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of thousands of women in the country
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.00,0:03:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and put together in what used to be called
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.00,0:03:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a demographic health survey report.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.00,0:03:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But these surveys are costly,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.00,0:03:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so they can only be done [in] three- to five-year intervals.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.00,0:03:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they have good quality.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:16.00,0:03:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this is a limitation.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:18.00,0:03:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And all these colored lines here are results;
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.00,0:03:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,each color is one survey.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.00,0:03:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that's too complicated for today, so I'll simplify it for you,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.00,0:03:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I give you one average point for each survey.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.00,0:03:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was 1977, 1988,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.00,0:03:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,1992, '97
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.00,0:03:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and 2002.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.00,0:03:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when the experts in the U.N.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:39.00,0:03:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have got these surveys in place in their database,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.00,0:03:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then they use advanced mathematical formulas
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.00,0:03:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to produce a trend line, and the trend line looks like this.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.00,0:03:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,See here -- it's the best fit they can get of this point.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.00,0:03:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But watch out --
Dialogue: 0,0:03:53.00,0:03:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they continue the line
Dialogue: 0,0:03:55.00,0:03:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,beyond the last point
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.00,0:03:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,out into nothing.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.00,0:04:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they estimated that in 2008,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.00,0:04:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Kenya had per child mortality of 128.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.00,0:04:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I was sad,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.00,0:04:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we could see
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.00,0:04:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this reversal in Kenya
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.00,0:04:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with an increased child mortality in the 90s.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:14.00,0:04:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was so tragic.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.00,0:04:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in June, I got a mail in my inbox
Dialogue: 0,0:04:19.00,0:04:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from Demographic Health Surveys,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.00,0:04:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it showed good news from Kenya.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.00,0:04:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was so happy.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.00,0:04:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was the estimate of the new survey.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.00,0:04:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then it just took another three months
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.00,0:04:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for [the] U.N. to get it into their server,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.00,0:04:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and on Friday we got the new trend line --
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.00,0:04:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was down here.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.00,0:04:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Isn't it nice -- isn't it nice, yeah?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.00,0:04:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was actually, on Friday, sitting in front of my computer,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.00,0:04:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I saw the death rate fall
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.00,0:04:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from 128 to 84 just that morning.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.00,0:04:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we celebrated.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.00,0:04:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But now, when you have this trend line,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.00,0:04:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how do we measure progress?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.00,0:04:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going into some details here,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.00,0:04:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because [the] U.N. do it like this.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.00,0:05:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They start [in] 1990 -- they measure to 2009.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.00,0:05:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They say, "0.9 percent, no progress."
Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.00,0:05:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's unfair.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.00,0:05:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As a professor, I think I have the right to propose something differently.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.00,0:05:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I would say, at least do this --
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.00,0:05:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,10 years is enough to follow the trend.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.00,0:05:15.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's two surveys, and you can see what's happening now.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.00,0:05:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They have 2.4 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.00,0:05:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Had I been in the Ministry of Health in Kenya,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:19.00,0:05:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I may have joined these two points.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.00,0:05:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what I'm telling you
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.00,0:05:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that we know the child mortality.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.00,0:05:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have a decent trend.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.00,0:05:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's coming into some tricky things then
Dialogue: 0,0:05:30.00,0:05:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we are measuring MDGs.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.00,0:05:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the reason here for Africa is especially important,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.00,0:05:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because '90s was a bad decade,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:37.00,0:05:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not only in Kenya, but across Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.00,0:05:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The HIV epidemic peaked.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.00,0:05:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There was resistance for the old malaria drugs, until we got the new drugs.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.00,0:05:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We got, later, the mosquito netting.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.00,0:05:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there was socio-economic problems,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.00,0:05:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which are now being solved at a much better scale.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.00,0:05:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So look at the average here --
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.00,0:05:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is the average for all of sub-Saharan Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.00,0:05:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And [the] U.N. says
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.00,0:06:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's a reduction with 1.8 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.00,0:06:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now this sounds a little theoretical,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.00,0:06:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's not so theoretical.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.00,0:06:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You know, these economists,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.00,0:06:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they love money, they want more and more of it, they want it to grow.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.00,0:06:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So they calculate the percent annual growth rate of [the] economy.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:13.00,0:06:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We in public health, we hate child death,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.00,0:06:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so we want less and less and less of child deaths.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.00,0:06:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we calculate the percent reduction per year,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.00,0:06:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's sort of the same percentage.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:22.00,0:06:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If your economy grows with four percent,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.00,0:06:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you ought to reduce child mortality four percent;
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.00,0:06:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if it's used well and people are really involved
Dialogue: 0,0:06:29.00,0:06:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and can get the use of the resources in the way they want it.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.00,0:06:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So is this fair now to measure this over 19 years?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.00,0:06:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,An economist would never do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.00,0:06:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I have just divided it into two periods.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.00,0:06:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the 90s, only 1.2 percent,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.00,0:06:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,only 1.2 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.00,0:06:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whereas now, second gear --
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.00,0:06:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's like Africa had first gear,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.00,0:06:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now they go into second gear.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.00,0:06:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But even this
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.00,0:06:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is not a fair representation of Africa,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.00,0:06:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's an average,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.00,0:06:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's an average speed of reduction in Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.00,0:07:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And look here when I take you into my bubble graphs.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.00,0:07:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Still here,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.00,0:07:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,child death per 1,000 on that axis.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.00,0:07:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here we have [the] year.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.00,0:07:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'm now giving you a wider picture than the MDG.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.00,0:07:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I start 50 years ago
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.00,0:07:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when Africa celebrated independence in most countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.00,0:07:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I give you Congo, which was high,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.00,0:07:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ghana -- lower. And Kenya -- even lower.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.00,0:07:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what has happened over the years since then? Here we go.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.00,0:07:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see, with independence, literacy improved
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.00,0:07:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and vaccinations started, smallpox was eradicated,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.00,0:07:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hygiene was improved, and things got better.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.00,0:07:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But then, in the '80s, watch out here.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.00,0:07:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Congo got into civil war,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.00,0:07:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they leveled off here.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.00,0:07:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ghana got very ahead, fast.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.00,0:07:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was the backlash in Kenya, and Ghana bypassed,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.00,0:07:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but then Kenya and Ghana go down together --
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.00,0:07:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,still a standstill in Congo.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.00,0:07:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's where we are today.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.00,0:07:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see it doesn't make sense
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.00,0:07:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make an average of this zero improvement
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.00,0:07:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this very fast improvement.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:00.00,0:08:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Time has come
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.00,0:08:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to stop thinking about sub-Saharan Africa as one place.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.00,0:08:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Their countries are so different,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.00,0:08:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they merit to be recognized in the same way,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.00,0:08:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as we don't talk about Europe as one place.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.00,0:08:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I can tell you that the economy in Greece and Sweden are very different --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:17.00,0:08:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,everyone knows that.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.00,0:08:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they are judged, each country, on how they are doing.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.00,0:08:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let me show the wider picture.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.00,0:08:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My country, Sweden:
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.00,0:08:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,1800, we were up there.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.00,0:08:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What a strange personality disorder we must have,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.00,0:08:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,counting the children so meticulously in spite of a high child death rate.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.00,0:08:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's very strange. It's sort of embarrassing.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.00,0:08:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we had that habit in Sweden, you know,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.00,0:08:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we counted all the child deaths,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.00,0:08:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even if we didn't do anything about it.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.00,0:08:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then, you see, these were famine years.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.00,0:08:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These were bad years, and people got fed up with Sweden.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:50.00,0:08:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,My ancestors moved to the United States.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.00,0:08:56.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And eventually, soon they started to get better and better here.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.00,0:08:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And here we got better education, and we got health service,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.00,0:09:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and child mortality came down.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.00,0:09:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We never had a war; Sweden was in peace all this time.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.00,0:09:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But look, the rate of lowering
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.00,0:09:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in Sweden
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.00,0:09:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was not fast.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.00,0:09:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sweden achieved a low child mortality
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.00,0:09:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we started early.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.00,0:09:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We had primary school actually
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.00,0:09:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,started in 1842.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.00,0:09:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then you get that wonderful effect
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.00,0:09:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when we got female literacy
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.00,0:09:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one generation later.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.00,0:09:29.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You have to realize that the investments we do in progress
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.00,0:09:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are long-term investments.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.00,0:09:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not about just five years --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.00,0:09:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's long-term investments.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.00,0:09:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And Sweden never reached [the] Millennium Development Goal rate,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.00,0:09:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,3.1 percent when I calculated.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:40.00,0:09:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we are off track -- that's what Sweden is.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:43.00,0:09:45.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But you don't talk about it so much.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:45.00,0:09:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We want others to be better than we were, and indeed, others have been better.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.00,0:09:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me show you Thailand,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.00,0:09:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,see what a success story, Thailand from the 1960s --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:52.00,0:09:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how they went down here
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.00,0:09:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and reached almost the same child mortality levels as Sweden.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.00,0:10:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And I'll give you another story -- Egypt,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.00,0:10:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the most hidden, glorious success in public health.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.00,0:10:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Egypt was up here in 1960,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.00,0:10:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,higher than Congo.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.00,0:10:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The Nile Delta was a misery for children
Dialogue: 0,0:10:10.00,0:10:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with diarrheal disease
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.00,0:10:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and malaria and a lot of problems.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:14.00,0:10:17.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then they got the Aswan Dam. They got electricity in their homes,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:17.00,0:10:19.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they increased education
Dialogue: 0,0:10:19.00,0:10:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they got primary health care.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.00,0:10:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And down they went, you know.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:23.00,0:10:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they got safer water, they eradicated malaria.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.00,0:10:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And isn't it a success story.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:28.00,0:10:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Millennium Development Goal rates for child mortality
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.00,0:10:33.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is fully possible.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:33.00,0:10:35.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the good thing is
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.00,0:10:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that Ghana today is going with the same rate
Dialogue: 0,0:10:37.00,0:10:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as Egypt did at its fastest.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.00,0:10:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Kenya is now speeding up.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:42.00,0:10:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here we have a problem.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.00,0:10:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have a severe problem in countries which are at a standstill.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.00,0:10:51.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, let me now bring you to a wider picture,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.00,0:10:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a wider picture of child mortality.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:53.00,0:10:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to show you the relationship
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.00,0:10:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between child mortality on this axis here --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.00,0:11:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this axis here is child mortality --
Dialogue: 0,0:11:01.00,0:11:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and here I have the family size.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.00,0:11:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The relationship between child mortality and family size.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:06.00,0:11:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One, two, three, four children per woman:
Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.00,0:11:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,six, seven, eight children per woman.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:10.00,0:11:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is, once again, 1960 --
Dialogue: 0,0:11:12.00,0:11:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,50 years ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:14.00,0:11:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Each bubble is a country --
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.00,0:11:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the color, you can see, a continent.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:18.00,0:11:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The dark blue here is sub-Saharan Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.00,0:11:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the size of the bubble is the population.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.00,0:11:26.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And these are
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.00,0:11:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the so-called "developing" countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.00,0:11:31.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They had high, or very high, child mortality
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.00,0:11:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and family size, six to eight.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:34.00,0:11:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the ones over there,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.00,0:11:38.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they were so-called Western countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.00,0:11:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They had low child mortality
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.00,0:11:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and small families.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.00,0:11:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What has happened?
Dialogue: 0,0:11:44.00,0:11:47.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What I want you [to do] now is to see with your own eyes
Dialogue: 0,0:11:47.00,0:11:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the relation between fall in child mortality
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.00,0:11:53.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and decrease in family size.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:53.00,0:11:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I just want not to have any room for doubt --
Dialogue: 0,0:11:55.00,0:11:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have to see that for yourself.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:57.00,0:12:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is what happened. Now I start the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:00.00,0:12:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here we come down with the eradication of
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.00,0:12:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,smallpox, better education,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.00,0:12:06.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,health service.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.00,0:12:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It got down there -- China comes into the Western box here.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:09.00,0:12:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And here Brazil is in the Western Box.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.00,0:12:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India is approaching. The first African countries coming into the Western box,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.00,0:12:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we get a lot a new neighbors.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:16.00,0:12:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Welcome to a decent life.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:18.00,0:12:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Come on. We want everyone down there.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.00,0:12:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the vision we have, isn't it.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:22.00,0:12:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And look now, the first African countries here are coming in.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.00,0:12:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There we are today.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:28.00,0:12:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There is no such thing
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.00,0:12:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a "Western world" and "developing world."
Dialogue: 0,0:12:32.00,0:12:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is the report from [the] U.N.,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:34.00,0:12:36.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which came out on Friday.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:36.00,0:12:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's very good -- "Levels and Trends in Child Mortality" --
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.00,0:12:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,except this page.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:41.00,0:12:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This page is very bad;
Dialogue: 0,0:12:43.00,0:12:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's a categorization of countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.00,0:12:49.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It labels "developing countries," -- I can read from the list here --
Dialogue: 0,0:12:49.00,0:12:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,developing countries: Republic of Korea -- South Korea.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:52.00,0:12:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Huh?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:54.00,0:12:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They get Samsung, how can they be [a] developing country?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.00,0:12:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They have here Singapore.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:59.00,0:13:01.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They have the lowest child mortality in the world, Singapore.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:01.00,0:13:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They bypassed Sweden five years ago,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.00,0:13:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they are labeled a developing country.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:05.00,0:13:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They have here Qatar.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:07.00,0:13:09.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's the richest country in the world with Al Jazeera.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:09.00,0:13:11.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How the heck could they be [a] developing country?
Dialogue: 0,0:13:11.00,0:13:13.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is crap.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:13.00,0:13:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:13:16.00,0:13:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The rest here is good -- the rest is good.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:18.00,0:13:20.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have to have a modern concept,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.00,0:13:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which fits to the data.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:22.00,0:13:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we have to realize
Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.00,0:13:27.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we are all going to into this, down to here.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.00,0:13:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is the importance now with the relations here.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.00,0:13:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Look -- even if we look in Africa --
Dialogue: 0,0:13:32.00,0:13:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these are the African countries.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.00,0:13:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can clearly see the relation with falling child mortality
Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.00,0:13:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and decreasing family size,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:39.00,0:13:41.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even within Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:41.00,0:13:43.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's very clear that this is what happens.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.00,0:13:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And a very important piece of research came out on Friday
Dialogue: 0,0:13:46.00,0:13:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle
Dialogue: 0,0:13:50.00,0:13:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,showing that almost 50 percent
Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.00,0:13:54.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the fall in child mortality
Dialogue: 0,0:13:54.00,0:13:57.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can be attributed to female education.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:57.00,0:14:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is, when we get girls in school,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:00.00,0:14:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we'll get an impact 15 to 20 years later,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:02.00,0:14:05.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is a secular trend which is very strong.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.00,0:14:08.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's why we must have that long-term perspective,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.00,0:14:10.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we must measure the impact
Dialogue: 0,0:14:10.00,0:14:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,over 10-year periods.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:12.00,0:14:14.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's fully possible
Dialogue: 0,0:14:14.00,0:14:16.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to get child mortality down in all of these countries
Dialogue: 0,0:14:16.00,0:14:18.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to get them down in the corner
Dialogue: 0,0:14:18.00,0:14:21.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we all would like to live together.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:22.00,0:14:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And of course, lowering child mortality
Dialogue: 0,0:14:25.00,0:14:28.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a matter of utmost importance
Dialogue: 0,0:14:28.00,0:14:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from humanitarian aspects.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:30.00,0:14:32.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a decent life for children,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:32.00,0:14:34.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we are talking about.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:34.00,0:14:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it is also a strategic investment
Dialogue: 0,0:14:37.00,0:14:39.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the future of all mankind,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:39.00,0:14:42.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it's about the environment.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:42.00,0:14:44.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We will not be able to manage the environment
Dialogue: 0,0:14:44.00,0:14:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and avoid the terrible climate crisis
Dialogue: 0,0:14:46.00,0:14:48.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we don't stabilize the world population.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:48.00,0:14:50.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's be clear about that.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:50.00,0:14:52.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the way to do that,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:52.00,0:14:55.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is to get child mortality down, get access to family planning
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.00,0:14:58.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and behind that drive female education.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:58.00,0:15:00.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that is fully possible. Let's do it.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.00,0:15:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:02.00,0:15:12.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)