WEBVTT 00:00:00.800 --> 00:00:04.176 So I've been "futuring," which is a term I made up -- NOTE Paragraph 00:00:04.200 --> 00:00:05.456 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:00:05.480 --> 00:00:06.696 about three seconds ago. 00:00:06.720 --> 00:00:09.536 I've been futuring for about 20 years, 00:00:09.560 --> 00:00:12.896 and when I first started, I would sit down with people, 00:00:12.920 --> 00:00:15.816 and say, "Hey, let's talk 10, 20 years out." 00:00:15.840 --> 00:00:17.616 And they'd say, "Great." 00:00:17.640 --> 00:00:20.136 And I've been seeing that time horizon 00:00:20.160 --> 00:00:22.216 get shorter and shorter 00:00:22.240 --> 00:00:23.856 and shorter, 00:00:23.880 --> 00:00:27.256 so much so that I met with a CEO two months ago 00:00:27.280 --> 00:00:29.656 and I said -- we started our initial conversation. 00:00:29.680 --> 00:00:33.416 He goes, "I love what you do. I want to talk about the next six months." NOTE Paragraph 00:00:33.440 --> 00:00:35.040 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:00:36.040 --> 00:00:39.176 We have a lot of problems that we are facing. 00:00:39.200 --> 00:00:41.920 These are civilizational-scale problems. 00:00:43.520 --> 00:00:44.960 The issue though is, 00:00:45.600 --> 00:00:47.296 we can't solve them 00:00:47.320 --> 00:00:49.896 using the mental models that we use right now 00:00:49.920 --> 00:00:51.496 to try and solve these problems. 00:00:51.520 --> 00:00:54.176 Yes, a lot of great technical work is being done, 00:00:54.200 --> 00:00:59.576 but there is a problem that we need to solve for a priori, before, 00:00:59.600 --> 00:01:02.400 if we want to really move the needle on those big problems. 00:01:03.160 --> 00:01:04.896 "Short-termism." 00:01:04.920 --> 00:01:07.376 Right? There's no marches. There's no bracelets. 00:01:07.400 --> 00:01:11.256 There's no petitions that you can sign to be against short-termism. 00:01:11.280 --> 00:01:14.096 I tried to put one up, and no one signed. 00:01:14.120 --> 00:01:15.336 It was weird. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:15.360 --> 00:01:16.560 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:01:17.280 --> 00:01:20.296 But it prevents us from doing so much. 00:01:20.320 --> 00:01:23.016 Short-termism, for many reasons, 00:01:23.040 --> 00:01:25.936 has pervaded every nook and cranny of our reality. 00:01:25.960 --> 00:01:27.536 I just want you to take a second 00:01:27.560 --> 00:01:31.376 and just think about an issue that you're thinking, working on. 00:01:31.400 --> 00:01:33.376 It could be personal, it could be at work 00:01:33.400 --> 00:01:35.456 or it could be move-the-needle world stuff, 00:01:35.480 --> 00:01:37.816 and think about how far out you tend to think 00:01:37.840 --> 00:01:40.360 about the solution set for that. NOTE Paragraph 00:01:41.920 --> 00:01:46.336 Because short-termism prevents the CEO 00:01:46.360 --> 00:01:49.000 from buying really expensive safety equipment. 00:01:49.920 --> 00:01:51.896 It'll hurt the bottom line. 00:01:51.920 --> 00:01:53.720 So we get the Deepwater Horizon. 00:01:54.400 --> 00:01:57.136 Short-termism prevents teachers 00:01:57.160 --> 00:02:00.696 from spending quality one-on-one time with their students. 00:02:00.720 --> 00:02:02.856 So right now in America, 00:02:02.880 --> 00:02:05.720 a high school student drops out every 26 seconds. 00:02:07.360 --> 00:02:10.096 Short-termism prevents Congress -- 00:02:10.120 --> 00:02:12.736 sorry if there's anyone in here from Congress -- NOTE Paragraph 00:02:12.760 --> 00:02:14.296 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:02:14.320 --> 00:02:16.376 or not really that sorry -- NOTE Paragraph 00:02:16.400 --> 00:02:18.616 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:02:18.640 --> 00:02:21.816 from putting money into a real infrastructure bill. 00:02:21.840 --> 00:02:24.456 So what we get is the I-35W bridge collapse 00:02:24.480 --> 00:02:26.296 over the Mississippi a few years ago, 00:02:26.320 --> 00:02:27.520 13 killed. 00:02:28.760 --> 00:02:31.520 It wasn't always like this. We did the Panama Canal. 00:02:32.600 --> 00:02:34.856 We pretty much have eradicated global polio. 00:02:34.880 --> 00:02:37.680 We did the transcontinental railroad, the Marshall Plan. 00:02:38.560 --> 00:02:42.360 And it's not just big, physical infrastructure problems and issues. 00:02:42.920 --> 00:02:44.816 Women's suffrage, the right to vote. 00:02:44.840 --> 00:02:47.616 But in our short-termist time, 00:02:47.640 --> 00:02:50.136 where everything seems to happen right now 00:02:50.160 --> 00:02:54.656 and we can only think out past the next tweet or timeline post, 00:02:54.680 --> 00:02:56.696 we get hyper-reactionary. NOTE Paragraph 00:02:56.720 --> 00:02:58.000 So what do we do? 00:02:58.880 --> 00:03:02.136 We take people who are fleeing their war-torn country, 00:03:02.160 --> 00:03:03.416 and we go after them. 00:03:03.440 --> 00:03:07.056 We take low-level drug offenders, and we put them away for life. 00:03:07.080 --> 00:03:09.456 And then we build McMansions without even thinking 00:03:09.480 --> 00:03:12.346 about how people are going to get between them and their job. 00:03:12.370 --> 00:03:13.850 It's a quick buck. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:14.760 --> 00:03:17.096 Now, the reality is, for a lot of these problems, 00:03:17.120 --> 00:03:19.896 there are some technical fixes, 00:03:19.920 --> 00:03:21.136 a lot of them. 00:03:21.160 --> 00:03:24.696 I call these technical fixes sandbag strategies. 00:03:24.720 --> 00:03:26.416 So you know there's a storm coming, 00:03:26.440 --> 00:03:29.176 the levee is broken, no one's put any money into it, 00:03:29.200 --> 00:03:31.016 you surround your home with sandbags. 00:03:31.040 --> 00:03:32.840 And guess what? It works. 00:03:34.600 --> 00:03:36.616 Storm goes away, the water level goes down, 00:03:36.640 --> 00:03:38.016 you get rid of the sandbags, 00:03:38.040 --> 00:03:40.560 and you do this storm after storm after storm. 00:03:41.920 --> 00:03:43.400 And here's the insidious thing. 00:03:44.120 --> 00:03:46.016 A sandbag strategy 00:03:46.040 --> 00:03:47.240 can get you reelected. 00:03:48.320 --> 00:03:49.696 A sandbag strategy 00:03:49.720 --> 00:03:51.680 can help you make your quarterly numbers. NOTE Paragraph 00:03:54.240 --> 00:03:57.216 Now, if we want to move forward 00:03:57.240 --> 00:04:00.016 into a different future than the one we have right now, 00:04:00.040 --> 00:04:02.096 because I don't think we've hit -- 00:04:02.120 --> 00:04:04.096 2016 is not peak civilization. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:04.120 --> 00:04:05.456 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:04:05.480 --> 00:04:07.256 There's some more we can do. 00:04:07.280 --> 00:04:11.896 But my argument is that unless we shift our mental models and our mental maps 00:04:11.920 --> 00:04:14.256 on how we think about the short, 00:04:14.280 --> 00:04:15.976 it's not going to happen. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:16.000 --> 00:04:18.976 So what I've developed is something called "longpath," 00:04:19.000 --> 00:04:20.736 and it's a practice. 00:04:20.760 --> 00:04:24.696 And longpath isn't a kind of one-and-done exercise. 00:04:24.720 --> 00:04:27.416 I'm sure everyone here at some point has done an off-site 00:04:27.440 --> 00:04:29.536 with a lot of Post-It notes and whiteboards, 00:04:29.560 --> 00:04:32.456 and you do -- 00:04:32.480 --> 00:04:34.936 no offense to the consultants in here who do that -- 00:04:34.960 --> 00:04:36.576 and you do a long-term plan, 00:04:36.600 --> 00:04:39.040 and then two weeks later, everyone forgets about it. 00:04:40.640 --> 00:04:43.840 Right? Or a week later. If you're lucky, three months. 00:04:44.840 --> 00:04:48.416 It's a practice because it's not necessarily a thing that you do. 00:04:48.440 --> 00:04:52.216 It's a process where you have to revisit different ways of thinking 00:04:52.240 --> 00:04:54.656 for every major decision that you're working on. 00:04:54.680 --> 00:04:57.160 So I want to go through those three ways of thinking. NOTE Paragraph 00:04:57.960 --> 00:05:00.520 So the first: transgenerational thinking. 00:05:01.360 --> 00:05:03.576 I love the philosophers: 00:05:03.600 --> 00:05:05.416 Plato, Socrates, Habermas, Heidegger. 00:05:05.440 --> 00:05:06.640 I was raised on them. 00:05:08.040 --> 00:05:09.976 But they all did one thing 00:05:10.000 --> 00:05:11.976 that didn't actually seem like a big deal 00:05:12.000 --> 00:05:14.336 until I really started kind of looking into this. 00:05:14.360 --> 00:05:16.176 And they all took, 00:05:16.200 --> 00:05:19.096 as a unit of measure for their entire reality 00:05:19.120 --> 00:05:21.073 of what it meant to be virtuous and good, 00:05:21.880 --> 00:05:23.080 the single lifespan, 00:05:23.960 --> 00:05:25.160 from birth to death. 00:05:25.640 --> 00:05:27.696 But here's a problem with these issues: 00:05:27.720 --> 00:05:29.136 they stack up on top of us, 00:05:29.160 --> 00:05:32.296 because the only way we know how to do something good in the world 00:05:32.320 --> 00:05:34.536 is if we do it between our birth and our death. 00:05:34.560 --> 00:05:36.256 That's what we're programmed to do. 00:05:36.280 --> 00:05:38.736 If you go to the self-help section in any bookstore, 00:05:38.760 --> 00:05:40.000 it's all about you. 00:05:41.400 --> 00:05:43.256 Which is great, 00:05:43.280 --> 00:05:46.200 unless you're dealing with some of these major issues. 00:05:47.960 --> 00:05:50.400 And so with transgenerational thinking, 00:05:51.280 --> 00:05:53.936 which is really kind of transgenerational ethics, 00:05:53.960 --> 00:05:57.576 you're able to expand how you think about these problems, 00:05:57.600 --> 00:06:00.360 what is your role in helping to solve them. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:01.720 --> 00:06:05.880 Now, this isn't something that just has to be done at the Security Council chamber. 00:06:06.480 --> 00:06:09.736 It's something that you can do in a very kind of personal way. 00:06:09.760 --> 00:06:14.176 So every once in a while, if I'm lucky, my wife and I like to go out to dinner, 00:06:14.200 --> 00:06:17.456 and we have three children under the age of seven. 00:06:17.480 --> 00:06:19.909 So you can imagine it's a very peaceful, quiet meal. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:19.933 --> 00:06:21.136 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:06:21.160 --> 00:06:26.736 So we sit down and literally all I want to do is just eat and chill, 00:06:26.760 --> 00:06:29.416 and my kids have a completely and totally different idea 00:06:29.440 --> 00:06:31.016 of what we're going to be doing. 00:06:31.040 --> 00:06:33.376 And so my first idea 00:06:33.400 --> 00:06:35.296 is my sandbag strategy, right? 00:06:35.320 --> 00:06:37.656 It's to go into my pocket and take out the iPhone 00:06:37.680 --> 00:06:39.136 and give them "Frozen" 00:06:39.160 --> 00:06:42.120 or some other bestselling game thing. 00:06:43.240 --> 00:06:46.936 And then I stop 00:06:46.960 --> 00:06:51.536 and I have to kind of put on this transgenerational thinking cap. 00:06:51.560 --> 00:06:54.536 I don't do this in the restaurant, because it would be bizarre, 00:06:54.560 --> 00:06:55.856 but I have to -- 00:06:55.880 --> 00:06:58.496 I did it once, and that's how I learned it was bizarre. NOTE Paragraph 00:06:58.520 --> 00:06:59.536 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:06:59.560 --> 00:07:03.680 And you have to kind of think, "OK, I can do this." 00:07:04.440 --> 00:07:06.160 But what is this teaching them? 00:07:07.480 --> 00:07:10.096 So what does it mean if I actually bring some paper 00:07:10.120 --> 00:07:11.856 or engage with them in conversation? 00:07:11.880 --> 00:07:14.736 It's hard. It's not easy, and I'm making this very personal. 00:07:14.760 --> 00:07:16.136 It's actually more traumatic 00:07:16.160 --> 00:07:18.896 than some of the big issues that I work on in the world -- 00:07:18.920 --> 00:07:20.760 entertaining my kids at dinner. 00:07:21.560 --> 00:07:24.696 But what it does is it connects them here in the present with me, 00:07:24.720 --> 00:07:25.976 but it also -- 00:07:26.000 --> 00:07:29.456 and this is the crux of transgenerational thinking ethics -- 00:07:29.480 --> 00:07:32.776 it sets them up to how they're going to interact with their kids 00:07:32.800 --> 00:07:34.880 and their kids and their kids. NOTE Paragraph 00:07:36.360 --> 00:07:38.040 Second, futures thinking. 00:07:38.680 --> 00:07:40.656 When we think about the future, 00:07:40.680 --> 00:07:41.920 10, 15 years out, 00:07:42.920 --> 00:07:44.778 give me a vision of what the future is. 00:07:46.000 --> 00:07:48.656 You don't have to give it to me, but think in your head. 00:07:48.680 --> 00:07:50.816 And what you're probably going to see 00:07:50.840 --> 00:07:52.656 is the dominant cultural lens 00:07:52.680 --> 00:07:55.736 that dominates our thinking about the future right now: 00:07:55.760 --> 00:07:56.960 technology. 00:07:57.840 --> 00:07:59.576 So when we think about the problems, 00:07:59.600 --> 00:08:01.776 we always put it through a technological lens, 00:08:01.800 --> 00:08:05.056 a tech-centric, a techno-utopia, and there's nothing wrong with that, 00:08:05.080 --> 00:08:08.376 but it's something that we have to really think deeply about 00:08:08.400 --> 00:08:11.256 if we're going to move on these major issues, 00:08:11.280 --> 00:08:13.336 because it wasn't always like this. Right? 00:08:13.360 --> 00:08:16.000 The ancients had their way of thinking 00:08:16.840 --> 00:08:18.360 about what the future was. 00:08:19.640 --> 00:08:24.536 The Church definitely had their idea of what the future could be, 00:08:24.560 --> 00:08:27.496 and you could actually pay your way into that future. Right? 00:08:27.520 --> 00:08:29.456 And luckily for humanity, 00:08:29.480 --> 00:08:31.616 we got the scientific revolution. 00:08:31.640 --> 00:08:33.296 From there, we got the technology, 00:08:33.320 --> 00:08:34.976 but what has happened -- 00:08:35.000 --> 00:08:37.360 And by the way, this is not a critique. 00:08:38.320 --> 00:08:40.696 I love technology. 00:08:40.720 --> 00:08:42.655 Everything in my house talks back to me, 00:08:42.679 --> 00:08:44.856 from my children to my speakers to everything. NOTE Paragraph 00:08:44.880 --> 00:08:47.696 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:08:47.720 --> 00:08:53.416 But we've abdicated the future from the high priests in Rome 00:08:53.440 --> 00:08:56.520 to the high priests of Silicon Valley. 00:08:57.880 --> 00:09:01.216 So when we think, well, how are we going to deal with climate 00:09:01.240 --> 00:09:02.816 or with poverty or homelessness, 00:09:02.840 --> 00:09:05.960 our first reaction is to think about it through a technology lens. 00:09:07.080 --> 00:09:11.696 And look, I'm not advocating that we go to this guy. 00:09:11.720 --> 00:09:13.640 I love Joel, don't get me wrong, 00:09:14.400 --> 00:09:16.056 but I'm not saying we go to Joel. 00:09:16.080 --> 00:09:17.896 What I'm saying is we have to rethink 00:09:17.920 --> 00:09:22.696 our base assumption about only looking at the future in one way, 00:09:22.720 --> 00:09:24.856 only looking at it through the dominant lens. 00:09:24.880 --> 00:09:27.056 Because our problems are so big and so vast 00:09:27.080 --> 00:09:29.896 that we need to open ourselves up. NOTE Paragraph 00:09:29.920 --> 00:09:33.640 So that's why I do everything in my power not to talk about the future. 00:09:34.320 --> 00:09:36.040 I talk about futures. 00:09:36.920 --> 00:09:38.656 It opens the conversation again. 00:09:38.680 --> 00:09:41.136 So when you're sitting and thinking 00:09:41.160 --> 00:09:44.336 about how do we move forward on this major issue -- 00:09:44.360 --> 00:09:45.896 it could be at home, 00:09:45.920 --> 00:09:47.896 it could be at work, 00:09:47.920 --> 00:09:50.776 it could be again on the global stage -- 00:09:50.800 --> 00:09:55.216 don't cut yourself off from thinking about something beyond technology as a fix 00:09:55.240 --> 00:09:58.776 because we're more concerned about technological evolution right now 00:09:58.800 --> 00:10:00.936 than we are about moral evolution. 00:10:00.960 --> 00:10:02.976 And unless we fix for that, 00:10:03.000 --> 00:10:05.576 we're not going to be able to get out of short-termism 00:10:05.600 --> 00:10:07.416 and get to where we want to be. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:07.440 --> 00:10:10.200 The final, telos thinking. This comes from the Greek root. 00:10:10.680 --> 00:10:12.936 Ultimate aim and ultimate purpose. 00:10:12.960 --> 00:10:15.320 And it's really asking one question: 00:10:16.120 --> 00:10:17.320 to what end? 00:10:18.280 --> 00:10:21.296 When was the last time you asked yourself: To what end? 00:10:21.320 --> 00:10:25.120 And when you asked yourself that, how far out did you go? 00:10:25.640 --> 00:10:28.640 Because long isn't long enough anymore. 00:10:29.560 --> 00:10:31.456 Three, five years doesn't cut it. 00:10:31.480 --> 00:10:33.760 It's 30, 40, 50, 100 years. NOTE Paragraph 00:10:34.800 --> 00:10:37.016 In Homer's epic, "The Odyssey," 00:10:37.040 --> 00:10:40.096 Odysseus had the answer to his "what end." 00:10:40.120 --> 00:10:41.520 It was Ithaca. 00:10:41.880 --> 00:10:43.976 It was this bold vision of what he wanted -- 00:10:44.000 --> 00:10:45.376 to return to Penelope. 00:10:45.400 --> 00:10:48.016 And I can tell you, because of the work that I'm doing, 00:10:48.040 --> 00:10:50.896 but also you know it intuitively -- we have lost our Ithaca. 00:10:50.920 --> 00:10:54.456 We have lost our "to what end," so we stay on this hamster wheel. 00:10:54.480 --> 00:10:56.656 And yes, we're trying to solve these problems, 00:10:56.680 --> 00:10:59.520 but what comes after we solve the problem? 00:11:00.160 --> 00:11:03.400 And unless you define what comes after, people aren't going to move. 00:11:04.400 --> 00:11:06.816 The businesses -- this isn't just about business -- 00:11:06.840 --> 00:11:10.176 but the businesses that do consistently, who break out of short-termism 00:11:10.200 --> 00:11:12.216 not surprisingly are family-run businesses. 00:11:12.240 --> 00:11:15.816 They're transgenerational. They're telos. They think about the futures. 00:11:15.840 --> 00:11:19.536 And this is an ad for Patek Philippe. They're 175 years old, 00:11:19.560 --> 00:11:22.616 and what's amazing is that they literally embody 00:11:22.640 --> 00:11:25.456 this kind of longpathian sense in their brand, 00:11:25.480 --> 00:11:28.376 because, by the way, you never actually own a Patek Philippe, 00:11:28.400 --> 00:11:29.976 and I definitely won't -- NOTE Paragraph 00:11:30.000 --> 00:11:31.016 (Laughter) NOTE Paragraph 00:11:31.040 --> 00:11:34.040 unless somebody wants to just throw 25,000 dollars on the stage. 00:11:34.064 --> 00:11:37.264 You merely look after it for the next generation. NOTE Paragraph 00:11:38.840 --> 00:11:41.296 So it's important that we remember, 00:11:41.320 --> 00:11:44.456 the future, we treat it like a noun. 00:11:44.480 --> 00:11:46.736 It's not. It's a verb. 00:11:46.760 --> 00:11:48.016 It requires action. 00:11:48.040 --> 00:11:49.856 It requires us to push into it. 00:11:49.880 --> 00:11:51.816 It's not this thing that washes over us. 00:11:51.840 --> 00:11:54.496 It's something that we actually have total control over. 00:11:54.520 --> 00:11:57.416 But in a short-term society, we end up feeling like we don't. 00:11:57.440 --> 00:11:58.776 We feel like we're trapped. 00:11:58.800 --> 00:12:00.000 We can push through that. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:02.000 --> 00:12:04.440 Now I'm getting more comfortable 00:12:05.200 --> 00:12:07.440 in the fact that at some point 00:12:08.360 --> 00:12:09.640 in the inevitable future, 00:12:11.000 --> 00:12:12.200 I will die. 00:12:13.240 --> 00:12:17.336 But because of these new ways of thinking and doing, 00:12:17.360 --> 00:12:21.296 both in the outside world and also with my family at home, 00:12:21.320 --> 00:12:24.456 and what I'm leaving my kids, I get more comfortable in that fact. 00:12:24.480 --> 00:12:27.616 And it's something that a lot of us are really uncomfortable with, 00:12:27.640 --> 00:12:28.840 but I'm telling you, 00:12:29.840 --> 00:12:31.256 think it through. 00:12:31.280 --> 00:12:34.016 Apply this type of thinking and you can push yourself past 00:12:34.040 --> 00:12:36.096 what's inevitably very, very uncomfortable. NOTE Paragraph 00:12:36.120 --> 00:12:39.840 And it all begins really with yourself asking this question: 00:12:40.840 --> 00:12:42.600 What is your longpath? 00:12:43.880 --> 00:12:46.776 But I ask you, when you ask yourself that 00:12:46.800 --> 00:12:49.056 now or tonight or behind a steering wheel 00:12:49.080 --> 00:12:52.440 or in the boardroom or the situation room: 00:12:54.320 --> 00:12:56.496 push past the longpath, 00:12:56.520 --> 00:12:59.816 quick, oh, what's my longpath the next three years or five years? 00:12:59.840 --> 00:13:03.456 Try and push past your own life if you can 00:13:03.480 --> 00:13:05.856 because it makes you do things a little bit bigger 00:13:05.880 --> 00:13:07.560 than you thought were possible. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:08.800 --> 00:13:11.800 Yes, we have huge, huge problems out there. 00:13:13.800 --> 00:13:16.200 With this process, with this thinking, 00:13:17.120 --> 00:13:18.720 I think we can make a difference. 00:13:19.240 --> 00:13:21.776 I think you can make a difference, 00:13:21.800 --> 00:13:23.416 and I believe in you guys. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:23.440 --> 00:13:24.656 Thank you. NOTE Paragraph 00:13:24.680 --> 00:13:29.703 (Applause)