1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,176 So I've been "futuring," which is a term I made up -- 2 00:00:04,200 --> 00:00:05,456 (Laughter) 3 00:00:05,480 --> 00:00:06,696 about three seconds ago. 4 00:00:06,720 --> 00:00:09,536 I've been futuring for about 20 years, 5 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:12,896 and when I first started, I would sit down with people, 6 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:15,816 and say, "Hey, let's talk 10, 20 years out." 7 00:00:15,840 --> 00:00:17,616 And they'd say, "Great." 8 00:00:17,640 --> 00:00:20,136 And I've been seeing that time horizon 9 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:22,216 get shorter and shorter 10 00:00:22,240 --> 00:00:23,856 and shorter, 11 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:27,256 so much so that I met with a CEO two months ago 12 00:00:27,280 --> 00:00:29,656 and I said -- we started our initial conversation. 13 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:33,416 He goes, "I love what you do. I want to talk about the next six months." 14 00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:35,040 (Laughter) 15 00:00:36,040 --> 00:00:39,176 We have a lot of problems that we are facing. 16 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:41,920 These are civilizational-scale problems. 17 00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:44,960 The issue though is, 18 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:47,296 we can't solve them 19 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:49,896 using the mental models that we use right now 20 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:51,496 to try and solve these problems. 21 00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:54,176 Yes, a lot of great technical work is being done, 22 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:59,576 but there is a problem that we need to solve for a priori, before, 23 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:02,400 if we want to really move the needle on those big problems. 24 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:04,896 "Short-termism." 25 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:07,376 Right? There's no marches. There's no bracelets. 26 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:11,256 There's no petitions that you can sign to be against short-termism. 27 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:14,096 I tried to put one up, and no one signed. 28 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:15,336 It was weird. 29 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:16,560 (Laughter) 30 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:20,296 But it prevents us from doing so much. 31 00:01:20,320 --> 00:01:23,016 Short-termism, for many reasons, 32 00:01:23,040 --> 00:01:25,936 has pervaded every nook and cranny of our reality. 33 00:01:25,960 --> 00:01:27,536 I just want you to take a second 34 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:31,376 and just think about an issue that you're thinking, working on. 35 00:01:31,400 --> 00:01:33,376 It could be personal, it could be at work 36 00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:35,456 or it could be move-the-needle world stuff, 37 00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:37,816 and think about how far out you tend to think 38 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,360 about the solution set for that. 39 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:46,336 Because short-termism prevents the CEO 40 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:49,000 from buying really expensive safety equipment. 41 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:51,896 It'll hurt the bottom line. 42 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:53,720 So we get the Deepwater Horizon. 43 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,136 Short-termism prevents teachers 44 00:01:57,160 --> 00:02:00,696 from spending quality one-on-one time with their students. 45 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:02,856 So right now in America, 46 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:05,720 a high school student drops out every 26 seconds. 47 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:10,096 Short-termism prevents Congress -- 48 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:12,736 sorry if there's anyone in here from Congress -- 49 00:02:12,760 --> 00:02:14,296 (Laughter) 50 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:16,376 or not really that sorry -- 51 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:18,616 (Laughter) 52 00:02:18,640 --> 00:02:21,816 from putting money into a real infrastructure bill. 53 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:24,456 So what we get is the I-35W bridge collapse 54 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:26,296 over the Mississippi a few years ago, 55 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:27,520 13 killed. 56 00:02:28,760 --> 00:02:31,520 It wasn't always like this. We did the Panama Canal. 57 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:34,856 We pretty much have eradicated global polio. 58 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:37,680 We did the transcontinental railroad, the Marshall Plan. 59 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:42,360 And it's not just big, physical infrastructure problems and issues. 60 00:02:42,920 --> 00:02:44,816 Women's suffrage, the right to vote. 61 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:47,616 But in our short-termist time, 62 00:02:47,640 --> 00:02:50,136 where everything seems to happen right now 63 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:54,656 and we can only think out past the next tweet or timeline post, 64 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:56,696 we get hyper-reactionary. 65 00:02:56,720 --> 00:02:58,000 So what do we do? 66 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:02,136 We take people who are fleeing their war-torn country, 67 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:03,416 and we go after them. 68 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:07,056 We take low-level drug offenders, and we put them away for life. 69 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:09,456 And then we build McMansions without even thinking 70 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:12,346 about how people are going to get between them and their job. 71 00:03:12,370 --> 00:03:13,850 It's a quick buck. 72 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:17,096 Now, the reality is, for a lot of these problems, 73 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:19,896 there are some technical fixes, 74 00:03:19,920 --> 00:03:21,136 a lot of them. 75 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:24,696 I call these technical fixes sandbag strategies. 76 00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:26,416 So you know there's a storm coming, 77 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:29,176 the levee is broken, no one's put any money into it, 78 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:31,016 you surround your home with sandbags. 79 00:03:31,040 --> 00:03:32,840 And guess what? It works. 80 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:36,616 Storm goes away, the water level goes down, 81 00:03:36,640 --> 00:03:38,016 you get rid of the sandbags, 82 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,560 and you do this storm after storm after storm. 83 00:03:41,920 --> 00:03:43,400 And here's the insidious thing. 84 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:46,016 A sandbag strategy 85 00:03:46,040 --> 00:03:47,240 can get you reelected. 86 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:49,696 A sandbag strategy 87 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:51,680 can help you make your quarterly numbers. 88 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:57,216 Now, if we want to move forward 89 00:03:57,240 --> 00:04:00,016 into a different future than the one we have right now, 90 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:02,096 because I don't think we've hit -- 91 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:04,096 2016 is not peak civilization. 92 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:05,456 (Laughter) 93 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:07,256 There's some more we can do. 94 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:11,896 But my argument is that unless we shift our mental models and our mental maps 95 00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:14,256 on how we think about the short, 96 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:15,976 it's not going to happen. 97 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:18,976 So what I've developed is something called "longpath," 98 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:20,736 and it's a practice. 99 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:24,696 And longpath isn't a kind of one-and-done exercise. 100 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:27,416 I'm sure everyone here at some point has done an off-site 101 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:29,536 with a lot of Post-It notes and whiteboards, 102 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:32,456 and you do -- 103 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:34,936 no offense to the consultants in here who do that -- 104 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:36,576 and you do a long-term plan, 105 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,040 and then two weeks later, everyone forgets about it. 106 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,840 Right? Or a week later. If you're lucky, three months. 107 00:04:44,840 --> 00:04:48,416 It's a practice because it's not necessarily a thing that you do. 108 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:52,216 It's a process where you have to revisit different ways of thinking 109 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:54,656 for every major decision that you're working on. 110 00:04:54,680 --> 00:04:57,160 So I want to go through those three ways of thinking. 111 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:00,520 So the first: transgenerational thinking. 112 00:05:01,360 --> 00:05:03,576 I love the philosophers: 113 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:05,416 Plato, Socrates, Habermas, Heidegger. 114 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:06,640 I was raised on them. 115 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:09,976 But they all did one thing 116 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:11,976 that didn't actually seem like a big deal 117 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:14,336 until I really started kind of looking into this. 118 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:16,176 And they all took, 119 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:19,096 as a unit of measure for their entire reality 120 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:21,073 of what it meant to be virtuous and good, 121 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:23,080 the single lifespan, 122 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:25,160 from birth to death. 123 00:05:25,640 --> 00:05:27,696 But here's a problem with these issues: 124 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:29,136 they stack up on top of us, 125 00:05:29,160 --> 00:05:32,296 because the only way we know how to do something good in the world 126 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:34,536 is if we do it between our birth and our death. 127 00:05:34,560 --> 00:05:36,256 That's what we're programmed to do. 128 00:05:36,280 --> 00:05:38,736 If you go to the self-help section in any bookstore, 129 00:05:38,760 --> 00:05:40,000 it's all about you. 130 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:43,256 Which is great, 131 00:05:43,280 --> 00:05:46,200 unless you're dealing with some of these major issues. 132 00:05:47,960 --> 00:05:50,400 And so with transgenerational thinking, 133 00:05:51,280 --> 00:05:53,936 which is really kind of transgenerational ethics, 134 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:57,576 you're able to expand how you think about these problems, 135 00:05:57,600 --> 00:06:00,360 what is your role in helping to solve them. 136 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:05,880 Now, this isn't something that just has to be done at the Security Council chamber. 137 00:06:06,480 --> 00:06:09,736 It's something that you can do in a very kind of personal way. 138 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:14,176 So every once in a while, if I'm lucky, my wife and I like to go out to dinner, 139 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:17,456 and we have three children under the age of seven. 140 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:19,909 So you can imagine it's a very peaceful, quiet meal. 141 00:06:19,933 --> 00:06:21,136 (Laughter) 142 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:26,736 So we sit down and literally all I want to do is just eat and chill, 143 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:29,416 and my kids have a completely and totally different idea 144 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:31,016 of what we're going to be doing. 145 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:33,376 And so my first idea 146 00:06:33,400 --> 00:06:35,296 is my sandbag strategy, right? 147 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:37,656 It's to go into my pocket and take out the iPhone 148 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:39,136 and give them "Frozen" 149 00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:42,120 or some other bestselling game thing. 150 00:06:43,240 --> 00:06:46,936 And then I stop 151 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:51,536 and I have to kind of put on this transgenerational thinking cap. 152 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:54,536 I don't do this in the restaurant, because it would be bizarre, 153 00:06:54,560 --> 00:06:55,856 but I have to -- 154 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:58,496 I did it once, and that's how I learned it was bizarre. 155 00:06:58,520 --> 00:06:59,536 (Laughter) 156 00:06:59,560 --> 00:07:03,680 And you have to kind of think, "OK, I can do this." 157 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:06,160 But what is this teaching them? 158 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:10,096 So what does it mean if I actually bring some paper 159 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:11,856 or engage with them in conversation? 160 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:14,736 It's hard. It's not easy, and I'm making this very personal. 161 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:16,136 It's actually more traumatic 162 00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:18,896 than some of the big issues that I work on in the world -- 163 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:20,760 entertaining my kids at dinner. 164 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:24,696 But what it does is it connects them here in the present with me, 165 00:07:24,720 --> 00:07:25,976 but it also -- 166 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:29,456 and this is the crux of transgenerational thinking ethics -- 167 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:32,776 it sets them up to how they're going to interact with their kids 168 00:07:32,800 --> 00:07:34,880 and their kids and their kids. 169 00:07:36,360 --> 00:07:38,040 Second, futures thinking. 170 00:07:38,680 --> 00:07:40,656 When we think about the future, 171 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:41,920 10, 15 years out, 172 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:44,778 give me a vision of what the future is. 173 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:48,656 You don't have to give it to me, but think in your head. 174 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:50,816 And what you're probably going to see 175 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:52,656 is the dominant cultural lens 176 00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:55,736 that dominates our thinking about the future right now: 177 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:56,960 technology. 178 00:07:57,840 --> 00:07:59,576 So when we think about the problems, 179 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:01,776 we always put it through a technological lens, 180 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:05,056 a tech-centric, a techno-utopia, and there's nothing wrong with that, 181 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:08,376 but it's something that we have to really think deeply about 182 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:11,256 if we're going to move on these major issues, 183 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:13,336 because it wasn't always like this. Right? 184 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:16,000 The ancients had their way of thinking 185 00:08:16,840 --> 00:08:18,360 about what the future was. 186 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:24,536 The Church definitely had their idea of what the future could be, 187 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:27,496 and you could actually pay your way into that future. Right? 188 00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:29,456 And luckily for humanity, 189 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:31,616 we got the scientific revolution. 190 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:33,296 From there, we got the technology, 191 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:34,976 but what has happened -- 192 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:37,360 And by the way, this is not a critique. 193 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:40,696 I love technology. 194 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:42,655 Everything in my house talks back to me, 195 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:44,856 from my children to my speakers to everything. 196 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:47,696 (Laughter) 197 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:53,416 But we've abdicated the future from the high priests in Rome 198 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:56,520 to the high priests of Silicon Valley. 199 00:08:57,880 --> 00:09:01,216 So when we think, well, how are we going to deal with climate 200 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:02,816 or with poverty or homelessness, 201 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:05,960 our first reaction is to think about it through a technology lens. 202 00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:11,696 And look, I'm not advocating that we go to this guy. 203 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:13,640 I love Joel, don't get me wrong, 204 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:16,056 but I'm not saying we go to Joel. 205 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:17,896 What I'm saying is we have to rethink 206 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:22,696 our base assumption about only looking at the future in one way, 207 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:24,856 only looking at it through the dominant lens. 208 00:09:24,880 --> 00:09:27,056 Because our problems are so big and so vast 209 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:29,896 that we need to open ourselves up. 210 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:33,640 So that's why I do everything in my power not to talk about the future. 211 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:36,040 I talk about futures. 212 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:38,656 It opens the conversation again. 213 00:09:38,680 --> 00:09:41,136 So when you're sitting and thinking 214 00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:44,336 about how do we move forward on this major issue -- 215 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:45,896 it could be at home, 216 00:09:45,920 --> 00:09:47,896 it could be at work, 217 00:09:47,920 --> 00:09:50,776 it could be again on the global stage -- 218 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:55,216 don't cut yourself off from thinking about something beyond technology as a fix 219 00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:58,776 because we're more concerned about technological evolution right now 220 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:00,936 than we are about moral evolution. 221 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:02,976 And unless we fix for that, 222 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,576 we're not going to be able to get out of short-termism 223 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:07,416 and get to where we want to be. 224 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:10,200 The final, telos thinking. This comes from the Greek root. 225 00:10:10,680 --> 00:10:12,936 Ultimate aim and ultimate purpose. 226 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:15,320 And it's really asking one question: 227 00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:17,320 to what end? 228 00:10:18,280 --> 00:10:21,296 When was the last time you asked yourself: To what end? 229 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:25,120 And when you asked yourself that, how far out did you go? 230 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:28,640 Because long isn't long enough anymore. 231 00:10:29,560 --> 00:10:31,456 Three, five years doesn't cut it. 232 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:33,760 It's 30, 40, 50, 100 years. 233 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,016 In Homer's epic, "The Odyssey," 234 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:40,096 Odysseus had the answer to his "what end." 235 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:41,520 It was Ithaca. 236 00:10:41,880 --> 00:10:43,976 It was this bold vision of what he wanted -- 237 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:45,376 to return to Penelope. 238 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:48,016 And I can tell you, because of the work that I'm doing, 239 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:50,896 but also you know it intuitively -- we have lost our Ithaca. 240 00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:54,456 We have lost our "to what end," so we stay on this hamster wheel. 241 00:10:54,480 --> 00:10:56,656 And yes, we're trying to solve these problems, 242 00:10:56,680 --> 00:10:59,520 but what comes after we solve the problem? 243 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,400 And unless you define what comes after, people aren't going to move. 244 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:06,816 The businesses -- this isn't just about business -- 245 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:10,176 but the businesses that do consistently, who break out of short-termism 246 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:12,216 not surprisingly are family-run businesses. 247 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:15,816 They're transgenerational. They're telos. They think about the futures. 248 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:19,536 And this is an ad for Patek Philippe. They're 175 years old, 249 00:11:19,560 --> 00:11:22,616 and what's amazing is that they literally embody 250 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:25,456 this kind of longpathian sense in their brand, 251 00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:28,376 because, by the way, you never actually own a Patek Philippe, 252 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:29,976 and I definitely won't -- 253 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:31,016 (Laughter) 254 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:34,040 unless somebody wants to just throw 25,000 dollars on the stage. 255 00:11:34,064 --> 00:11:37,264 You merely look after it for the next generation. 256 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:41,296 So it's important that we remember, 257 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:44,456 the future, we treat it like a noun. 258 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:46,736 It's not. It's a verb. 259 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:48,016 It requires action. 260 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:49,856 It requires us to push into it. 261 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:51,816 It's not this thing that washes over us. 262 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:54,496 It's something that we actually have total control over. 263 00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:57,416 But in a short-term society, we end up feeling like we don't. 264 00:11:57,440 --> 00:11:58,776 We feel like we're trapped. 265 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:00,000 We can push through that. 266 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:04,440 Now I'm getting more comfortable 267 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:07,440 in the fact that at some point 268 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:09,640 in the inevitable future, 269 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:12,200 I will die. 270 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:17,336 But because of these new ways of thinking and doing, 271 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:21,296 both in the outside world and also with my family at home, 272 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,456 and what I'm leaving my kids, I get more comfortable in that fact. 273 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:27,616 And it's something that a lot of us are really uncomfortable with, 274 00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:28,840 but I'm telling you, 275 00:12:29,840 --> 00:12:31,256 think it through. 276 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:34,016 Apply this type of thinking and you can push yourself past 277 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:36,096 what's inevitably very, very uncomfortable. 278 00:12:36,120 --> 00:12:39,840 And it all begins really with yourself asking this question: 279 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:42,600 What is your longpath? 280 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:46,776 But I ask you, when you ask yourself that 281 00:12:46,800 --> 00:12:49,056 now or tonight or behind a steering wheel 282 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:52,440 or in the boardroom or the situation room: 283 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,496 push past the longpath, 284 00:12:56,520 --> 00:12:59,816 quick, oh, what's my longpath the next three years or five years? 285 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:03,456 Try and push past your own life if you can 286 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:05,856 because it makes you do things a little bit bigger 287 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:07,560 than you thought were possible. 288 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:11,800 Yes, we have huge, huge problems out there. 289 00:13:13,800 --> 00:13:16,200 With this process, with this thinking, 290 00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:18,720 I think we can make a difference. 291 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:21,776 I think you can make a difference, 292 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:23,416 and I believe in you guys. 293 00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:24,656 Thank you. 294 00:13:24,680 --> 00:13:29,703 (Applause)