0:00:00.800,0:00:04.176 So I've been "futuring,"[br]which is a term I made up -- 0:00:04.200,0:00:05.456 (Laughter) 0:00:05.480,0:00:06.696 about three seconds ago. 0:00:06.720,0:00:09.536 I've been futuring for about 20 years, 0:00:09.560,0:00:12.896 and when I first started,[br]I would sit down with people, 0:00:12.920,0:00:15.816 and say, "Hey,[br]let's talk 10, 20 years out." 0:00:15.840,0:00:17.616 And they'd say, "Great." 0:00:17.640,0:00:20.136 And I've been seeing that time horizon 0:00:20.160,0:00:22.216 get shorter and shorter 0:00:22.240,0:00:23.856 and shorter, 0:00:23.880,0:00:27.256 so much so that I met[br]with a CEO two months ago 0:00:27.280,0:00:29.656 and I said -- we started[br]our initial conversation. 0:00:29.680,0:00:33.416 He goes, "I love what you do.[br]I want to talk about the next six months." 0:00:33.440,0:00:35.040 (Laughter) 0:00:36.040,0:00:39.176 We have a lot of problems[br]that we are facing. 0:00:39.200,0:00:41.920 These are civilizational-scale problems. 0:00:43.520,0:00:44.960 The issue though is, 0:00:45.600,0:00:47.296 we can't solve them 0:00:47.320,0:00:49.896 using the mental models[br]that we use right now 0:00:49.920,0:00:51.496 to try and solve these problems. 0:00:51.520,0:00:54.176 Yes, a lot of great[br]technical work is being done, 0:00:54.200,0:00:59.576 but there is a problem that[br]we need to solve for a priori, before, 0:00:59.600,0:01:02.400 if we want to really[br]move the needle on those big problems. 0:01:03.160,0:01:04.896 "Short-termism." 0:01:04.920,0:01:07.376 Right? There's no marches.[br]There's no bracelets. 0:01:07.400,0:01:11.256 There's no petitions that you can sign[br]to be against short-termism. 0:01:11.280,0:01:14.096 I tried to put one up, and no one signed. 0:01:14.120,0:01:15.336 It was weird. 0:01:15.360,0:01:16.560 (Laughter) 0:01:17.280,0:01:20.296 But it prevents us from doing so much. 0:01:20.320,0:01:23.016 Short-termism, for many reasons, 0:01:23.040,0:01:25.936 has pervaded every[br]nook and cranny of our reality. 0:01:25.960,0:01:27.536 I just want you to take a second 0:01:27.560,0:01:31.376 and just think about an issue[br]that you're thinking, working on. 0:01:31.400,0:01:33.376 It could be personal, it could be at work 0:01:33.400,0:01:35.456 or it could be[br]move-the-needle world stuff, 0:01:35.480,0:01:37.816 and think about[br]how far out you tend to think 0:01:37.840,0:01:40.360 about the solution set for that. 0:01:41.920,0:01:46.336 Because short-termism prevents the CEO 0:01:46.360,0:01:49.000 from buying really[br]expensive safety equipment. 0:01:49.920,0:01:51.896 It'll hurt the bottom line. 0:01:51.920,0:01:53.720 So we get the Deepwater Horizon. 0:01:54.400,0:01:57.136 Short-termism prevents teachers 0:01:57.160,0:02:00.696 from spending quality[br]one-on-one time with their students. 0:02:00.720,0:02:02.856 So right now in America, 0:02:02.880,0:02:05.720 a high school student[br]drops out every 26 seconds. 0:02:07.360,0:02:10.096 Short-termism prevents Congress -- 0:02:10.120,0:02:12.736 sorry if there's anyone[br]in here from Congress -- 0:02:12.760,0:02:14.296 (Laughter) 0:02:14.320,0:02:16.376 or not really that sorry -- 0:02:16.400,0:02:18.616 (Laughter) 0:02:18.640,0:02:21.816 from putting money[br]into a real infrastructure bill. 0:02:21.840,0:02:24.456 So what we get[br]is the I-35W bridge collapse 0:02:24.480,0:02:26.296 over the Mississippi a few years ago, 0:02:26.320,0:02:27.520 13 killed. 0:02:28.760,0:02:31.520 It wasn't always like this.[br]We did the Panama Canal. 0:02:32.600,0:02:34.856 We pretty much[br]have eradicated global polio. 0:02:34.880,0:02:37.680 We did the transcontinental railroad,[br]the Marshall Plan. 0:02:38.560,0:02:42.360 And it's not just big, physical[br]infrastructure problems and issues. 0:02:42.920,0:02:44.816 Women's suffrage, the right to vote. 0:02:44.840,0:02:47.616 But in our short-termist time, 0:02:47.640,0:02:50.136 where everything seems to happen right now 0:02:50.160,0:02:54.656 and we can only think out[br]past the next tweet or timeline post, 0:02:54.680,0:02:56.696 we get hyper-reactionary. 0:02:56.720,0:02:58.000 So what do we do? 0:02:58.880,0:03:02.136 We take people who are fleeing[br]their war-torn country, 0:03:02.160,0:03:03.416 and we go after them. 0:03:03.440,0:03:07.056 We take low-level drug offenders,[br]and we put them away for life. 0:03:07.080,0:03:09.456 And then we build McMansions[br]without even thinking 0:03:09.480,0:03:12.346 about how people are going[br]to get between them and their job. 0:03:12.370,0:03:13.850 It's a quick buck. 0:03:14.760,0:03:17.096 Now, the reality is,[br]for a lot of these problems, 0:03:17.120,0:03:19.896 there are some technical fixes, 0:03:19.920,0:03:21.136 a lot of them. 0:03:21.160,0:03:24.696 I call these technical fixes[br]sandbag strategies. 0:03:24.720,0:03:26.416 So you know there's a storm coming, 0:03:26.440,0:03:29.176 the levee is broken,[br]no one's put any money into it, 0:03:29.200,0:03:31.016 you surround your home with sandbags. 0:03:31.040,0:03:32.840 And guess what? It works. 0:03:34.600,0:03:36.616 Storm goes away,[br]the water level goes down, 0:03:36.640,0:03:38.016 you get rid of the sandbags, 0:03:38.040,0:03:40.560 and you do this storm[br]after storm after storm. 0:03:41.920,0:03:43.400 And here's the insidious thing. 0:03:44.120,0:03:46.016 A sandbag strategy 0:03:46.040,0:03:47.240 can get you reelected. 0:03:48.320,0:03:49.696 A sandbag strategy 0:03:49.720,0:03:51.680 can help you make your quarterly numbers. 0:03:54.240,0:03:57.216 Now, if we want to move forward 0:03:57.240,0:04:00.016 into a different future[br]than the one we have right now, 0:04:00.040,0:04:02.096 because I don't think we've hit -- 0:04:02.120,0:04:04.096 2016 is not peak civilization. 0:04:04.120,0:04:05.456 (Laughter) 0:04:05.480,0:04:07.256 There's some more we can do. 0:04:07.280,0:04:11.896 But my argument is that unless we shift[br]our mental models and our mental maps 0:04:11.920,0:04:14.256 on how we think about the short, 0:04:14.280,0:04:15.976 it's not going to happen. 0:04:16.000,0:04:18.976 So what I've developed[br]is something called "longpath," 0:04:19.000,0:04:20.736 and it's a practice. 0:04:20.760,0:04:24.696 And longpath isn't[br]a kind of one-and-done exercise. 0:04:24.720,0:04:27.416 I'm sure everyone here[br]at some point has done an off-site 0:04:27.440,0:04:29.536 with a lot of Post-It notes[br]and whiteboards, 0:04:29.560,0:04:32.456 and you do -- 0:04:32.480,0:04:34.936 no offense to the consultants[br]in here who do that -- 0:04:34.960,0:04:36.576 and you do a long-term plan, 0:04:36.600,0:04:39.040 and then two weeks later,[br]everyone forgets about it. 0:04:40.640,0:04:43.840 Right? Or a week later.[br]If you're lucky, three months. 0:04:44.840,0:04:48.416 It's a practice because[br]it's not necessarily a thing that you do. 0:04:48.440,0:04:52.216 It's a process where you have[br]to revisit different ways of thinking 0:04:52.240,0:04:54.656 for every major decision[br]that you're working on. 0:04:54.680,0:04:57.160 So I want to go through[br]those three ways of thinking. 0:04:57.960,0:05:00.520 So the first: transgenerational thinking. 0:05:01.360,0:05:03.576 I love the philosophers: 0:05:03.600,0:05:05.416 Plato, Socrates, Habermas, Heidegger. 0:05:05.440,0:05:06.640 I was raised on them. 0:05:08.040,0:05:09.976 But they all did one thing 0:05:10.000,0:05:11.976 that didn't actually seem like a big deal 0:05:12.000,0:05:14.336 until I really started[br]kind of looking into this. 0:05:14.360,0:05:16.176 And they all took, 0:05:16.200,0:05:19.096 as a unit of measure[br]for their entire reality 0:05:19.120,0:05:21.073 of what it meant to be virtuous and good, 0:05:21.880,0:05:23.080 the single lifespan, 0:05:23.960,0:05:25.160 from birth to death. 0:05:25.640,0:05:27.696 But here's a problem with these issues: 0:05:27.720,0:05:29.136 they stack up on top of us, 0:05:29.160,0:05:32.296 because the only way we know[br]how to do something good in the world 0:05:32.320,0:05:34.536 is if we do it between[br]our birth and our death. 0:05:34.560,0:05:36.256 That's what we're programmed to do. 0:05:36.280,0:05:38.736 If you go to the self-help section[br]in any bookstore, 0:05:38.760,0:05:40.000 it's all about you. 0:05:41.400,0:05:43.256 Which is great, 0:05:43.280,0:05:46.200 unless you're dealing[br]with some of these major issues. 0:05:47.960,0:05:50.400 And so with transgenerational thinking, 0:05:51.280,0:05:53.936 which is really kind of[br]transgenerational ethics, 0:05:53.960,0:05:57.576 you're able to expand[br]how you think about these problems, 0:05:57.600,0:06:00.360 what is your role[br]in helping to solve them. 0:06:01.720,0:06:05.880 Now, this isn't something that just has to[br]be done at the Security Council chamber. 0:06:06.480,0:06:09.736 It's something that you can do[br]in a very kind of personal way. 0:06:09.760,0:06:14.176 So every once in a while, if I'm lucky,[br]my wife and I like to go out to dinner, 0:06:14.200,0:06:17.456 and we have three children[br]under the age of seven. 0:06:17.480,0:06:19.909 So you can imagine[br]it's a very peaceful, quiet meal. 0:06:19.933,0:06:21.136 (Laughter) 0:06:21.160,0:06:26.736 So we sit down and literally[br]all I want to do is just eat and chill, 0:06:26.760,0:06:29.416 and my kids have a completely[br]and totally different idea 0:06:29.440,0:06:31.016 of what we're going to be doing. 0:06:31.040,0:06:33.376 And so my first idea 0:06:33.400,0:06:35.296 is my sandbag strategy, right? 0:06:35.320,0:06:37.656 It's to go into my pocket[br]and take out the iPhone 0:06:37.680,0:06:39.136 and give them "Frozen" 0:06:39.160,0:06:42.120 or some other bestselling game thing. 0:06:43.240,0:06:46.936 And then I stop 0:06:46.960,0:06:51.536 and I have to kind of put on[br]this transgenerational thinking cap. 0:06:51.560,0:06:54.536 I don't do this in the restaurant,[br]because it would be bizarre, 0:06:54.560,0:06:55.856 but I have to -- 0:06:55.880,0:06:58.496 I did it once, and that's how[br]I learned it was bizarre. 0:06:58.520,0:06:59.536 (Laughter) 0:06:59.560,0:07:03.680 And you have to kind of think,[br]"OK, I can do this." 0:07:04.440,0:07:06.160 But what is this teaching them? 0:07:07.480,0:07:10.096 So what does it mean[br]if I actually bring some paper 0:07:10.120,0:07:11.856 or engage with them in conversation? 0:07:11.880,0:07:14.736 It's hard. It's not easy,[br]and I'm making this very personal. 0:07:14.760,0:07:16.136 It's actually more traumatic 0:07:16.160,0:07:18.896 than some of the big issues[br]that I work on in the world -- 0:07:18.920,0:07:20.760 entertaining my kids at dinner. 0:07:21.560,0:07:24.696 But what it does is it connects them[br]here in the present with me, 0:07:24.720,0:07:25.976 but it also -- 0:07:26.000,0:07:29.456 and this is the crux[br]of transgenerational thinking ethics -- 0:07:29.480,0:07:32.776 it sets them up to how they're[br]going to interact with their kids 0:07:32.800,0:07:34.880 and their kids and their kids. 0:07:36.360,0:07:38.040 Second, futures thinking. 0:07:38.680,0:07:40.656 When we think about the future, 0:07:40.680,0:07:41.920 10, 15 years out, 0:07:42.920,0:07:44.778 give me a vision of what the future is. 0:07:46.000,0:07:48.656 You don't have to give it to me,[br]but think in your head. 0:07:48.680,0:07:50.816 And what you're probably going to see 0:07:50.840,0:07:52.656 is the dominant cultural lens 0:07:52.680,0:07:55.736 that dominates our thinking[br]about the future right now: 0:07:55.760,0:07:56.960 technology. 0:07:57.840,0:07:59.576 So when we think about the problems, 0:07:59.600,0:08:01.776 we always put it through[br]a technological lens, 0:08:01.800,0:08:05.056 a tech-centric, a techno-utopia,[br]and there's nothing wrong with that, 0:08:05.080,0:08:08.376 but it's something that we have to[br]really think deeply about 0:08:08.400,0:08:11.256 if we're going to move[br]on these major issues, 0:08:11.280,0:08:13.336 because it wasn't always like this. Right? 0:08:13.360,0:08:16.000 The ancients had their way of thinking 0:08:16.840,0:08:18.360 about what the future was. 0:08:19.640,0:08:24.536 The Church definitely had their idea[br]of what the future could be, 0:08:24.560,0:08:27.496 and you could actually pay your way[br]into that future. Right? 0:08:27.520,0:08:29.456 And luckily for humanity, 0:08:29.480,0:08:31.616 we got the scientific revolution. 0:08:31.640,0:08:33.296 From there, we got the technology, 0:08:33.320,0:08:34.976 but what has happened -- 0:08:35.000,0:08:37.360 And by the way, this is not a critique. 0:08:38.320,0:08:40.696 I love technology. 0:08:40.720,0:08:42.655 Everything in my house talks back to me, 0:08:42.679,0:08:44.856 from my children[br]to my speakers to everything. 0:08:44.880,0:08:47.696 (Laughter) 0:08:47.720,0:08:53.416 But we've abdicated the future[br]from the high priests in Rome 0:08:53.440,0:08:56.520 to the high priests of Silicon Valley. 0:08:57.880,0:09:01.216 So when we think, well,[br]how are we going to deal with climate 0:09:01.240,0:09:02.816 or with poverty or homelessness, 0:09:02.840,0:09:05.960 our first reaction is to think about it[br]through a technology lens. 0:09:07.080,0:09:11.696 And look, I'm not advocating[br]that we go to this guy. 0:09:11.720,0:09:13.640 I love Joel, don't get me wrong, 0:09:14.400,0:09:16.056 but I'm not saying we go to Joel. 0:09:16.080,0:09:17.896 What I'm saying is we have to rethink 0:09:17.920,0:09:22.696 our base assumption about[br]only looking at the future in one way, 0:09:22.720,0:09:24.856 only looking at it[br]through the dominant lens. 0:09:24.880,0:09:27.056 Because our problems[br]are so big and so vast 0:09:27.080,0:09:29.896 that we need to open ourselves up. 0:09:29.920,0:09:33.640 So that's why I do everything in my power[br]not to talk about the future. 0:09:34.320,0:09:36.040 I talk about futures. 0:09:36.920,0:09:38.656 It opens the conversation again. 0:09:38.680,0:09:41.136 So when you're sitting and thinking 0:09:41.160,0:09:44.336 about how do we move forward[br]on this major issue -- 0:09:44.360,0:09:45.896 it could be at home, 0:09:45.920,0:09:47.896 it could be at work, 0:09:47.920,0:09:50.776 it could be again on the global stage -- 0:09:50.800,0:09:55.216 don't cut yourself off from thinking[br]about something beyond technology as a fix 0:09:55.240,0:09:58.776 because we're more concerned[br]about technological evolution right now 0:09:58.800,0:10:00.936 than we are about moral evolution. 0:10:00.960,0:10:02.976 And unless we fix for that, 0:10:03.000,0:10:05.576 we're not going to be able[br]to get out of short-termism 0:10:05.600,0:10:07.416 and get to where we want to be. 0:10:07.440,0:10:10.200 The final, telos thinking.[br]This comes from the Greek root. 0:10:10.680,0:10:12.936 Ultimate aim and ultimate purpose. 0:10:12.960,0:10:15.320 And it's really asking one question: 0:10:16.120,0:10:17.320 to what end? 0:10:18.280,0:10:21.296 When was the last time[br]you asked yourself: To what end? 0:10:21.320,0:10:25.120 And when you asked yourself that,[br]how far out did you go? 0:10:25.640,0:10:28.640 Because long isn't long enough anymore. 0:10:29.560,0:10:31.456 Three, five years doesn't cut it. 0:10:31.480,0:10:33.760 It's 30, 40, 50, 100 years. 0:10:34.800,0:10:37.016 In Homer's epic, "The Odyssey," 0:10:37.040,0:10:40.096 Odysseus had the answer to his "what end." 0:10:40.120,0:10:41.520 It was Ithaca. 0:10:41.880,0:10:43.976 It was this bold vision[br]of what he wanted -- 0:10:44.000,0:10:45.376 to return to Penelope. 0:10:45.400,0:10:48.016 And I can tell you,[br]because of the work that I'm doing, 0:10:48.040,0:10:50.896 but also you know it intuitively --[br]we have lost our Ithaca. 0:10:50.920,0:10:54.456 We have lost our "to what end,"[br]so we stay on this hamster wheel. 0:10:54.480,0:10:56.656 And yes, we're trying[br]to solve these problems, 0:10:56.680,0:10:59.520 but what comes after we solve the problem? 0:11:00.160,0:11:03.400 And unless you define what comes after,[br]people aren't going to move. 0:11:04.400,0:11:06.816 The businesses --[br]this isn't just about business -- 0:11:06.840,0:11:10.176 but the businesses that do consistently,[br]who break out of short-termism 0:11:10.200,0:11:12.216 not surprisingly[br]are family-run businesses. 0:11:12.240,0:11:15.816 They're transgenerational. They're telos.[br]They think about the futures. 0:11:15.840,0:11:19.536 And this is an ad for Patek Philippe.[br]They're 175 years old, 0:11:19.560,0:11:22.616 and what's amazing[br]is that they literally embody 0:11:22.640,0:11:25.456 this kind of longpathian sense[br]in their brand, 0:11:25.480,0:11:28.376 because, by the way,[br]you never actually own a Patek Philippe, 0:11:28.400,0:11:29.976 and I definitely won't -- 0:11:30.000,0:11:31.016 (Laughter) 0:11:31.040,0:11:34.040 unless somebody wants to just[br]throw 25,000 dollars on the stage. 0:11:34.064,0:11:37.264 You merely look after it[br]for the next generation. 0:11:38.840,0:11:41.296 So it's important that we remember, 0:11:41.320,0:11:44.456 the future, we treat it like a noun. 0:11:44.480,0:11:46.736 It's not. It's a verb. 0:11:46.760,0:11:48.016 It requires action. 0:11:48.040,0:11:49.856 It requires us to push into it. 0:11:49.880,0:11:51.816 It's not this thing that washes over us. 0:11:51.840,0:11:54.496 It's something that we[br]actually have total control over. 0:11:54.520,0:11:57.416 But in a short-term society,[br]we end up feeling like we don't. 0:11:57.440,0:11:58.776 We feel like we're trapped. 0:11:58.800,0:12:00.000 We can push through that. 0:12:02.000,0:12:04.440 Now I'm getting more comfortable 0:12:05.200,0:12:07.440 in the fact that at some point 0:12:08.360,0:12:09.640 in the inevitable future, 0:12:11.000,0:12:12.200 I will die. 0:12:13.240,0:12:17.336 But because of these new ways[br]of thinking and doing, 0:12:17.360,0:12:21.296 both in the outside world[br]and also with my family at home, 0:12:21.320,0:12:24.456 and what I'm leaving my kids,[br]I get more comfortable in that fact. 0:12:24.480,0:12:27.616 And it's something that a lot of us[br]are really uncomfortable with, 0:12:27.640,0:12:28.840 but I'm telling you, 0:12:29.840,0:12:31.256 think it through. 0:12:31.280,0:12:34.016 Apply this type of thinking[br]and you can push yourself past 0:12:34.040,0:12:36.096 what's inevitably[br]very, very uncomfortable. 0:12:36.120,0:12:39.840 And it all begins really[br]with yourself asking this question: 0:12:40.840,0:12:42.600 What is your longpath? 0:12:43.880,0:12:46.776 But I ask you, when you ask yourself that 0:12:46.800,0:12:49.056 now or tonight or behind a steering wheel 0:12:49.080,0:12:52.440 or in the boardroom or the situation room: 0:12:54.320,0:12:56.496 push past the longpath, 0:12:56.520,0:12:59.816 quick, oh, what's my longpath[br]the next three years or five years? 0:12:59.840,0:13:03.456 Try and push past your own life if you can 0:13:03.480,0:13:05.856 because it makes you do things[br]a little bit bigger 0:13:05.880,0:13:07.560 than you thought were possible. 0:13:08.800,0:13:11.800 Yes, we have huge,[br]huge problems out there. 0:13:13.800,0:13:16.200 With this process, with this thinking, 0:13:17.120,0:13:18.720 I think we can make a difference. 0:13:19.240,0:13:21.776 I think you can make a difference, 0:13:21.800,0:13:23.416 and I believe in you guys. 0:13:23.440,0:13:24.656 Thank you. 0:13:24.680,0:13:29.703 (Applause)