0:00:00.000,0:00:02.000 Thank you. 0:00:02.000,0:00:04.000 It's a real pleasure to be here. 0:00:04.000,0:00:06.000 I last did a TEDTalk 0:00:06.000,0:00:10.000 I think about seven years ago or so. 0:00:10.000,0:00:13.000 I talked about spaghetti sauce. 0:00:13.000,0:00:16.000 And so many people, I guess, watch those videos. 0:00:16.000,0:00:18.000 People have been coming up to me ever since 0:00:18.000,0:00:20.000 to ask me questions about spaghetti sauce, 0:00:20.000,0:00:23.000 which is a wonderful thing in the short term -- 0:00:23.000,0:00:25.000 (Laughter) 0:00:25.000,0:00:27.000 but it's proven to be less than ideal 0:00:27.000,0:00:29.000 over seven years. 0:00:29.000,0:00:31.000 And so I though I would come 0:00:31.000,0:00:34.000 and try and put spaghetti sauce behind me. 0:00:34.000,0:00:36.000 (Laughter) 0:00:36.000,0:00:39.000 The theme of this morning's session is Things We Make. 0:00:39.000,0:00:41.000 And so I thought I would tell a story 0:00:41.000,0:00:43.000 about someone 0:00:43.000,0:00:45.000 who made one of the most precious objects 0:00:45.000,0:00:47.000 of his era. 0:00:47.000,0:00:50.000 And the man's name is Carl Norden. 0:00:50.000,0:00:52.000 Carl Norden was born in 1880. 0:00:52.000,0:00:54.000 And he was Swiss. 0:00:54.000,0:00:56.000 And of course, the Swiss can be divided 0:00:56.000,0:00:58.000 into two general categories: 0:00:58.000,0:01:00.000 those who make small, exquisite, 0:01:00.000,0:01:02.000 expensive objects 0:01:02.000,0:01:04.000 and those who handle the money 0:01:04.000,0:01:07.000 of those who buy small, exquisite, 0:01:07.000,0:01:09.000 expensive objects. 0:01:09.000,0:01:12.000 And Carl Norden is very firmly in the former camp. 0:01:12.000,0:01:14.000 He's an engineer. 0:01:14.000,0:01:17.000 He goes to the Federal Polytech in Zurich. 0:01:17.000,0:01:20.000 In fact, one of his classmates is a young man named Lenin 0:01:20.000,0:01:22.000 who would go on 0:01:22.000,0:01:26.000 to break small, expensive, exquisite objects. 0:01:26.000,0:01:29.000 And he's a Swiss engineer, Carl. 0:01:29.000,0:01:32.000 And I mean that in its fullest sense of the word. 0:01:32.000,0:01:34.000 He wears three-piece suits; 0:01:34.000,0:01:39.000 and he has a very, very small, important mustache; 0:01:39.000,0:01:41.000 and he is domineering 0:01:41.000,0:01:43.000 and narcissistic 0:01:43.000,0:01:45.000 and driven 0:01:45.000,0:01:47.000 and has an extraordinary ego; 0:01:47.000,0:01:50.000 and he works 16-hour days; 0:01:50.000,0:01:53.000 and he has very strong feelings about alternating current; 0:01:53.000,0:01:57.000 and he feels like a suntan is a sign of moral weakness; 0:01:57.000,0:01:59.000 and he drinks lots of coffee; 0:01:59.000,0:02:01.000 and he does his best work 0:02:01.000,0:02:03.000 sitting in his mother's kitchen in Zurich for hours 0:02:03.000,0:02:05.000 in complete silence 0:02:05.000,0:02:07.000 with nothing but a slide rule. 0:02:07.000,0:02:09.000 In any case, 0:02:09.000,0:02:12.000 Carl Norden emigrates to the United States 0:02:12.000,0:02:14.000 just before the First World War 0:02:14.000,0:02:16.000 and sets up shop on Lafayette Street 0:02:16.000,0:02:18.000 in downtown Manhattan. 0:02:18.000,0:02:20.000 And he becomes obsessed with the question 0:02:20.000,0:02:23.000 of how to drop bombs from an airplane. 0:02:23.000,0:02:25.000 Now if you think about it, 0:02:25.000,0:02:28.000 in the age before GPS and radar, 0:02:28.000,0:02:30.000 that was obviously a really difficult problem. 0:02:30.000,0:02:32.000 It's a complicated physics problem. 0:02:32.000,0:02:35.000 You've got a plane that's thousands of feet up in the air, 0:02:35.000,0:02:37.000 going at hundreds of miles an hour, 0:02:37.000,0:02:40.000 and you're trying to drop an object, a bomb, 0:02:40.000,0:02:42.000 towards some stationary target 0:02:42.000,0:02:45.000 in the face of all kinds of winds and cloud cover 0:02:45.000,0:02:47.000 and all kinds of other impediments. 0:02:47.000,0:02:49.000 And all sorts of people, 0:02:49.000,0:02:51.000 moving up to the First World War and between the wars, 0:02:51.000,0:02:53.000 tried to solve this problem, 0:02:53.000,0:02:55.000 and nearly everybody came up short. 0:02:55.000,0:02:57.000 The bombsights that were available 0:02:57.000,0:02:59.000 were incredibly crude. 0:02:59.000,0:03:02.000 But Carl Norden is really the one who cracks the code. 0:03:02.000,0:03:05.000 And he comes up with this incredibly complicated device. 0:03:05.000,0:03:07.000 It weighs about 50 lbs. 0:03:07.000,0:03:11.000 It's called the Norden Mark 15 bombsight. 0:03:11.000,0:03:13.000 And it has all kinds of levers and ball-bearings 0:03:13.000,0:03:16.000 and gadgets and gauges. 0:03:16.000,0:03:19.000 And he makes this complicated thing. 0:03:19.000,0:03:21.000 And what he allows people to do 0:03:21.000,0:03:25.000 is he makes the bombardier take this particular object, 0:03:25.000,0:03:27.000 visually sight the target, 0:03:27.000,0:03:31.000 because they're in the Plexiglas cone of the bomber, 0:03:31.000,0:03:34.000 and then they plug in the altitude of the plane, 0:03:34.000,0:03:37.000 the speed of the plane, the speed of the wind 0:03:37.000,0:03:39.000 and the coordinates 0:03:39.000,0:03:41.000 of the target. 0:03:41.000,0:03:45.000 And the bombsight will tell him when to drop the bomb. 0:03:45.000,0:03:48.000 And as Norden famously says, 0:03:48.000,0:03:50.000 "Before that bombsight came along, 0:03:50.000,0:03:52.000 bombs would routinely miss their target 0:03:52.000,0:03:54.000 by a mile or more." 0:03:54.000,0:03:57.000 But he said, with the Mark 15 Norden bombsight, 0:03:57.000,0:03:59.000 he could drop a bomb into a pickle barrel 0:03:59.000,0:04:01.000 at 20,000 ft. 0:04:01.000,0:04:03.000 Now I cannot tell you 0:04:03.000,0:04:05.000 how incredibly excited 0:04:05.000,0:04:07.000 the U.S. military was 0:04:07.000,0:04:10.000 by the news of the Norden bombsight. 0:04:10.000,0:04:12.000 It was like manna from heaven. 0:04:12.000,0:04:14.000 Here was an army 0:04:14.000,0:04:16.000 that had just had experience in the First World War, 0:04:16.000,0:04:18.000 where millions of men 0:04:18.000,0:04:20.000 fought each other in the trenches, 0:04:20.000,0:04:22.000 getting nowhere, making no progress, 0:04:22.000,0:04:26.000 and here someone had come up with a device 0:04:26.000,0:04:28.000 that allowed them to fly up in the skies 0:04:28.000,0:04:30.000 high above enemy territory 0:04:30.000,0:04:32.000 and destroy whatever they wanted 0:04:32.000,0:04:34.000 with pinpoint accuracy. 0:04:34.000,0:04:36.000 And the U.S. military 0:04:36.000,0:04:38.000 spends 1.5 billion dollars -- 0:04:38.000,0:04:41.000 billion dollars in 1940 dollars -- 0:04:41.000,0:04:43.000 developing the Norden bombsight. 0:04:43.000,0:04:46.000 And to put that in perspective, 0:04:46.000,0:04:48.000 the total cost of the Manhattan project 0:04:48.000,0:04:50.000 was three billion dollars. 0:04:50.000,0:04:53.000 Half as much money was spent on this Norden bombsight 0:04:53.000,0:04:57.000 as was spent on the most famous military-industrial project 0:04:57.000,0:04:59.000 of the modern era. 0:04:59.000,0:05:02.000 And there were people, strategists, within the U.S. military 0:05:02.000,0:05:04.000 who genuinely thought that this single device 0:05:04.000,0:05:06.000 was going to spell the difference 0:05:06.000,0:05:08.000 between defeat and victory 0:05:08.000,0:05:10.000 when it came to the battle against the Nazis 0:05:10.000,0:05:12.000 and against the Japanese. 0:05:12.000,0:05:14.000 And for Norden as well, 0:05:14.000,0:05:17.000 this device had incredible moral importance, 0:05:17.000,0:05:19.000 because Norden was a committed Christian. 0:05:19.000,0:05:21.000 In fact, he would always get upset 0:05:21.000,0:05:24.000 when people referred to the bombsight as his invention, 0:05:24.000,0:05:26.000 because in his eyes, 0:05:26.000,0:05:28.000 only God could invent things. 0:05:28.000,0:05:30.000 He was simple the instrument of God's will. 0:05:30.000,0:05:32.000 And what was God's will? 0:05:32.000,0:05:35.000 Well God's will was that the amount of suffering in any kind of war 0:05:35.000,0:05:38.000 be reduced to as small an amount as possible. 0:05:38.000,0:05:40.000 And what did the Norden bombsight do? 0:05:40.000,0:05:42.000 Well it allowed you to do that. 0:05:42.000,0:05:44.000 It allowed you to bomb only those things 0:05:44.000,0:05:48.000 that you absolutely needed and wanted to bomb. 0:05:48.000,0:05:51.000 So in the years leading up to the Second World War, 0:05:51.000,0:05:54.000 the U.S. military buys 90,000 0:05:54.000,0:05:56.000 of these Norden bombsights 0:05:56.000,0:05:58.000 at a cost of $14,000 each -- 0:05:58.000,0:06:01.000 again, in 1940 dollars, that's a lot of money. 0:06:01.000,0:06:04.000 And they trained 50,000 bombardiers on how to use them -- 0:06:04.000,0:06:08.000 long extensive, months-long training sessions -- 0:06:08.000,0:06:10.000 because these things are essentially analog computers; 0:06:10.000,0:06:12.000 they're not easy to use. 0:06:12.000,0:06:15.000 And they make everyone of those bombardiers take an oath, 0:06:15.000,0:06:18.000 to swear that if they're ever captured, 0:06:18.000,0:06:20.000 they will not divulge a single detail 0:06:20.000,0:06:22.000 of this particular device to the enemy, 0:06:22.000,0:06:25.000 because it's imperative the enemy not get their hands 0:06:25.000,0:06:27.000 on this absolutely essential piece of technology. 0:06:27.000,0:06:30.000 And whenever the Norden bombsight is taken onto a plane, 0:06:30.000,0:06:33.000 it's escorted there by a series of armed guards. 0:06:33.000,0:06:36.000 And it's carried in a box with a canvas shroud over it. 0:06:36.000,0:06:39.000 And the box is handcuffed to one of the guards. 0:06:39.000,0:06:41.000 It's never allowed to be photographed. 0:06:41.000,0:06:44.000 And there's a little incendiary device inside of it, 0:06:44.000,0:06:47.000 so that, if the plane ever crashes, it will be destroyed 0:06:47.000,0:06:50.000 and there's no way the enemy can ever get their hands on it. 0:06:50.000,0:06:52.000 The Norden bombsight 0:06:52.000,0:06:55.000 is the Holy Grail. 0:06:55.000,0:06:58.000 So what happens during the Second World War? 0:06:58.000,0:07:01.000 Well, it turns out it's not the Holy Grail. 0:07:01.000,0:07:03.000 In practice, the Norden bombsight 0:07:03.000,0:07:06.000 can drop a bomb into a pickle barrel at 20,000 ft., 0:07:06.000,0:07:08.000 but that's under perfect conditions. 0:07:08.000,0:07:10.000 And of course, in wartime, 0:07:10.000,0:07:12.000 conditions aren't perfect. 0:07:12.000,0:07:15.000 First of all, it's really hard to use -- really hard to use. 0:07:15.000,0:07:17.000 And not all of the people 0:07:17.000,0:07:19.000 who are of those 50,000 men who are bombardiers 0:07:19.000,0:07:23.000 have the ability to properly program an analog computer. 0:07:23.000,0:07:25.000 Secondly, it breaks down a lot. 0:07:25.000,0:07:27.000 It's full of all kinds of gyroscopes and pulleys 0:07:27.000,0:07:29.000 and gadgets and ball-bearings, 0:07:29.000,0:07:31.000 and they don't work as well as they ought to 0:07:31.000,0:07:33.000 in the heat of battle. 0:07:33.000,0:07:36.000 Thirdly, when Norden was making his calculations, 0:07:36.000,0:07:38.000 he assumed that a plane would be flying 0:07:38.000,0:07:41.000 at a relatively slow speed at low altitudes. 0:07:41.000,0:07:43.000 Well in a real war, you can't do that; 0:07:43.000,0:07:45.000 you'll get shot down. 0:07:45.000,0:07:48.000 So they started flying them at high altitudes at incredibly high speeds. 0:07:48.000,0:07:50.000 And the Norden bombsight doesn't work as well 0:07:50.000,0:07:52.000 under those conditions. 0:07:52.000,0:07:54.000 But most of all, 0:07:54.000,0:07:56.000 the Norden bombsight required the bombardier 0:07:56.000,0:07:59.000 to make visual contact with the target. 0:07:59.000,0:08:01.000 But of course, what happens in real life? 0:08:01.000,0:08:04.000 There are clouds, right. 0:08:04.000,0:08:07.000 It needs cloudless sky to be really accurate. 0:08:07.000,0:08:09.000 Well how many cloudless skies 0:08:09.000,0:08:11.000 do you think there were above Central Europe 0:08:11.000,0:08:14.000 between 1940 and 1945? 0:08:14.000,0:08:16.000 Not a lot. 0:08:16.000,0:08:18.000 And then to give you a sense 0:08:18.000,0:08:20.000 of just how inaccurate the Norden bombsight was, 0:08:20.000,0:08:22.000 there was a famous case in 1944 0:08:22.000,0:08:26.000 where the Allies bombed a chemical plant in Leuna, Germany. 0:08:26.000,0:08:28.000 And the chemical plant comprised 0:08:28.000,0:08:30.000 757 acres. 0:08:30.000,0:08:33.000 And over the course of 22 bombing missions, 0:08:33.000,0:08:38.000 the Allies dropped 85,000 bombs 0:08:38.000,0:08:42.000 on this 757 acre chemical plant, 0:08:42.000,0:08:45.000 using the Norden bombsight. 0:08:45.000,0:08:47.000 Well what percentage of those bombs 0:08:47.000,0:08:49.000 do you think actually landed 0:08:49.000,0:08:52.000 inside the 700-acre perimeter of the plant? 0:08:52.000,0:08:55.000 10 percent. 10 percent. 0:08:55.000,0:08:57.000 And of those 10 percent that landed, 0:08:57.000,0:09:00.000 16 percent didn't even go off; they were duds. 0:09:00.000,0:09:02.000 The Leuna chemical plant, 0:09:02.000,0:09:05.000 after one of the most extensive bombings in the history of the war, 0:09:05.000,0:09:08.000 was up and running within weeks. 0:09:08.000,0:09:10.000 And by the way, all those precautions 0:09:10.000,0:09:13.000 to keep the Norden bombsight out of the hands of the Nazis? 0:09:13.000,0:09:15.000 Well it turns out 0:09:15.000,0:09:17.000 that Carl Norden, as a proper Swiss, 0:09:17.000,0:09:20.000 was very enamored of German engineers. 0:09:20.000,0:09:22.000 So in the 1930s, he hired a whole bunch of them, 0:09:22.000,0:09:24.000 including a man named Hermann Long 0:09:24.000,0:09:26.000 who, in 1938, 0:09:26.000,0:09:29.000 gave a complete set of the plans for the Norden bombsight to the Nazis. 0:09:29.000,0:09:32.000 So they had their own Norden bombsight throughout the entire war -- 0:09:32.000,0:09:35.000 which also, by the way, didn't work very well. 0:09:35.000,0:09:37.000 (Laughter) 0:09:37.000,0:09:40.000 So why do we talk about the Norden bombsight? 0:09:40.000,0:09:42.000 Well because we live in an age 0:09:42.000,0:09:44.000 where there are lots and lots 0:09:44.000,0:09:46.000 of Norden bombsights. 0:09:46.000,0:09:48.000 We live in a time where there are all kinds 0:09:48.000,0:09:50.000 of really, really smart people 0:09:50.000,0:09:52.000 running around, saying that they've invented gadgets 0:09:52.000,0:09:54.000 that will forever change our world. 0:09:54.000,0:09:57.000 They've invented websites that will allow people to be free. 0:09:57.000,0:10:01.000 They've invented some kind of this thing, or this thing, or this thing 0:10:01.000,0:10:04.000 that will make our world forever better. 0:10:04.000,0:10:06.000 If you go into the military, 0:10:06.000,0:10:08.000 you'll find lots of Carl Nordens as well. 0:10:08.000,0:10:10.000 If you go to the Pentagon, they will say, 0:10:10.000,0:10:12.000 "You know what, now we really can 0:10:12.000,0:10:14.000 put a bomb inside a pickle barrel 0:10:14.000,0:10:16.000 at 20,000 ft." 0:10:16.000,0:10:19.000 And you know what, it's true; they actually can do that now. 0:10:19.000,0:10:21.000 But we need to be very clear 0:10:21.000,0:10:24.000 about how little that means. 0:10:24.000,0:10:27.000 In the Iraq War, at the beginning of the first Iraq War, 0:10:27.000,0:10:29.000 the U.S. military, the air force, 0:10:29.000,0:10:32.000 sent two squadrons of F-15E Fighter Eagles 0:10:32.000,0:10:34.000 to the Iraqi desert 0:10:34.000,0:10:36.000 equipped with these five million dollar cameras 0:10:36.000,0:10:39.000 that allowed them to see the entire desert floor. 0:10:39.000,0:10:42.000 And their mission was to find and to destroy -- 0:10:42.000,0:10:44.000 remember the Scud missile launchers, 0:10:44.000,0:10:46.000 those surface-to-air missiles 0:10:46.000,0:10:48.000 that the Iraqis were launching at the Israelis? 0:10:48.000,0:10:50.000 The mission of the two squadrons 0:10:50.000,0:10:53.000 was to get rid of all the Scud missile launchers. 0:10:53.000,0:10:55.000 And so they flew missions day and night, 0:10:55.000,0:10:57.000 and they dropped thousands of bombs, 0:10:57.000,0:11:00.000 and they fired thousands of missiles 0:11:00.000,0:11:03.000 in an attempt to get rid of this particular scourge. 0:11:03.000,0:11:05.000 And after the war was over, there was an audit done -- 0:11:05.000,0:11:07.000 as the army always does, the air force always does -- 0:11:07.000,0:11:09.000 and they asked the question: 0:11:09.000,0:11:11.000 how many Scuds did we actually destroy? 0:11:11.000,0:11:13.000 You know what the answer was? 0:11:13.000,0:11:15.000 Zero, not a single one. 0:11:15.000,0:11:17.000 Now why is that? 0:11:17.000,0:11:19.000 Is it because their weapons weren't accurate? 0:11:19.000,0:11:22.000 Oh no, they were brilliantly accurate. 0:11:22.000,0:11:24.000 They could have destroyed this little thing right here 0:11:24.000,0:11:26.000 from 25,000 ft. 0:11:26.000,0:11:30.000 The issue was they didn't know where the Scud launchers were. 0:11:30.000,0:11:33.000 The problem with bombs and pickle barrels 0:11:33.000,0:11:35.000 is not getting the bomb inside the pickle barrel, 0:11:35.000,0:11:38.000 it's knowing how to find the pickle barrel. 0:11:38.000,0:11:40.000 That's always been the harder problem 0:11:40.000,0:11:42.000 when it comes to fighting wars. 0:11:42.000,0:11:45.000 Or take the battle in Afghanistan. 0:11:45.000,0:11:47.000 What is the signature weapon 0:11:47.000,0:11:49.000 of the CIA's war in Northwest Pakistan? 0:11:49.000,0:11:52.000 It's the drone. What is the drone? 0:11:52.000,0:11:56.000 Well it is the grandson of the Norden Mark 15 bombsight. 0:11:56.000,0:12:00.000 It is this weapon of devastating accuracy and precision. 0:12:00.000,0:12:02.000 And over the course of the last six years 0:12:02.000,0:12:05.000 in Northwest Pakistan, 0:12:05.000,0:12:08.000 the CIA has flown hundreds of drone missiles, 0:12:08.000,0:12:10.000 and it's used those drones 0:12:10.000,0:12:12.000 to kill 2,000 suspected 0:12:12.000,0:12:16.000 Pakistani and Taliban militants. 0:12:16.000,0:12:19.000 Now what is the accuracy of those drones? 0:12:19.000,0:12:21.000 Well it's extraordinary. 0:12:21.000,0:12:24.000 We think we're now at 95 percent accuracy 0:12:24.000,0:12:26.000 when it comes to drone strikes. 0:12:26.000,0:12:29.000 95 percent of the people we kill need to be killed, right? 0:12:29.000,0:12:31.000 That is one of the most extraordinary records 0:12:31.000,0:12:33.000 in the history of modern warfare. 0:12:33.000,0:12:35.000 But do you know what the crucial thing is? 0:12:35.000,0:12:37.000 In that exact same period 0:12:37.000,0:12:39.000 that we've been using these drones 0:12:39.000,0:12:41.000 with devastating accuracy, 0:12:41.000,0:12:44.000 the number of attacks, of suicide attacks and terrorist attacks, 0:12:44.000,0:12:46.000 against American forces in Afghanistan 0:12:46.000,0:12:49.000 has increased tenfold. 0:12:49.000,0:12:51.000 As we have gotten more and more efficient 0:12:51.000,0:12:53.000 in killing them, 0:12:53.000,0:12:56.000 they have become angrier and angrier 0:12:56.000,0:12:59.000 and more and more motivated to kill us. 0:12:59.000,0:13:02.000 I have not described to you a success story. 0:13:02.000,0:13:04.000 I've described to you 0:13:04.000,0:13:06.000 the opposite of a success story. 0:13:06.000,0:13:08.000 And this is the problem 0:13:08.000,0:13:10.000 with our infatuation with the things we make. 0:13:10.000,0:13:13.000 We think the things we make can solve our problems, 0:13:13.000,0:13:16.000 but our problems are much more complex than that. 0:13:16.000,0:13:19.000 The issue isn't the accuracy of the bombs you have, 0:13:19.000,0:13:21.000 it's how you use the bombs you have, 0:13:21.000,0:13:23.000 and more importantly, 0:13:23.000,0:13:26.000 whether you ought to use bombs at all. 0:13:27.000,0:13:29.000 There's a postscript 0:13:29.000,0:13:31.000 to the Norden story 0:13:31.000,0:13:34.000 of Carl Norden and his fabulous bombsight. 0:13:34.000,0:13:37.000 And that is, on August 6th, 1945, 0:13:37.000,0:13:40.000 a B-29 bomber called the Enola Gay 0:13:40.000,0:13:42.000 flew over Japan 0:13:42.000,0:13:44.000 and, using a Norden bombsight, 0:13:44.000,0:13:47.000 dropped a very large thermonuclear device 0:13:47.000,0:13:50.000 on the city of Hiroshima. 0:13:50.000,0:13:53.000 And as was typical with the Norden bombsight, 0:13:53.000,0:13:56.000 the bomb actually missed its target by 800 ft. 0:13:56.000,0:13:59.000 But of course, it didn't matter. 0:13:59.000,0:14:01.000 And that's the greatest irony of all 0:14:01.000,0:14:04.000 when it comes to the Norden bombsight. 0:14:04.000,0:14:08.000 the air force's 1.5 billion dollar bombsight 0:14:08.000,0:14:12.000 was used to drop its three billion dollar bomb, 0:14:12.000,0:14:15.000 which didn't need a bombsight at all. 0:14:15.000,0:14:17.000 Meanwhile, back in New York, 0:14:17.000,0:14:19.000 no one told Carl Norden 0:14:19.000,0:14:22.000 that his bombsight was used over Hiroshima. 0:14:22.000,0:14:24.000 He was a committed Christian. 0:14:24.000,0:14:26.000 He thought he had designed something 0:14:26.000,0:14:29.000 that would reduce the toll of suffering in war. 0:14:29.000,0:14:32.000 It would have broken his heart. 0:14:32.000,0:14:39.000 (Applause)