WEBVTT 00:00:00.130 --> 00:00:02.200 00:00:03.645 --> 00:00:05.600 欢迎观看诺贝尔对谈 00:00:07.250 --> 00:00:10.240 在本集中，Josh Angrist 和 Guido Imbens 00:00:10.240 --> 00:00:11.920 与 Isaiah Andrews 坐下来 00:00:11.920 --> 00:00:14.303 讨论他们的研究最初是如何被接受的 00:00:14.999 --> 00:00:17.090 以及他们如何回应批评 00:00:18.700 --> 00:00:20.380 当时，你有没有觉得 00:00:20.380 --> 00:00:21.627 自己在做一件大事 00:00:21.627 --> 00:00:25.152 认为这会是一整套工程的开端 00:00:25.152 --> 00:00:27.202 而这个工程将会非常重要，还是...？ 00:00:27.600 --> 00:00:30.000 说这是一套大工程 00:00:30.000 --> 00:00:31.894 确实，我觉得，“哇，这--” 00:00:32.277 --> 00:00:35.045 我们已经证明了一些 我们从前所不知道的事 00:00:35.045 --> 00:00:36.114 而这是值得知道的 00:00:36.114 --> 00:00:38.033 是，回到... 00:00:38.741 --> 00:00:41.080 与我的就业市场报告或其他东西相比-- 00:00:41.080 --> 00:00:45.560 不，我觉得这实际上 是一个非常清晰的结果 00:00:46.400 --> 00:00:49.657 但肯定会有不同的解释 00:00:49.657 --> 00:00:52.420 我想没有人会说 00:00:52.420 --> 00:00:55.487 “好吧，这是研究人员的噩梦 00:00:56.043 --> 00:00:59.386 00:01:00.230 --> 00:01:02.003 你认为你发现了一些东西， 00:01:02.003 --> 00:01:04.461 然后其他人说，‘哦，我知道。’” 00:01:05.000 --> 00:01:07.220 但绝对有必要让大家相信 00:01:07.220 --> 00:01:10.370 这是值得了解的，工具变量 00:01:10.370 --> 00:01:12.687 估计了依从者的因果效应 00:01:13.200 --> 00:01:16.178 是，即使需要很长时间 00:01:16.178 --> 00:01:19.348 才能说服更多观众 00:01:19.820 --> 00:01:24.346 有时也很快，但在一小群人中的 00:01:24.800 --> 00:01:26.645 接受度还是不错的 00:01:27.200 --> 00:01:31.297 Gary 显然从一开始就非常喜欢这个想法 00:01:31.800 --> 00:01:33.289 我记得… 00:01:33.289 --> 00:01:35.645 因为那时 Josh 已经去了以色列 00:01:35.645 --> 00:01:38.886 但我记得向 Don Rubin 解释过 00:01:39.696 --> 00:01:43.700 他说，“你可知，这不得了啊。" 00:01:43.700 --> 00:01:45.197 虽然不是马上 00:01:45.932 --> 00:01:47.173 Don 经过深思熟虑 00:01:47.500 --> 00:01:49.150 当你和 Don 联系上的时候 00:01:49.150 --> 00:01:51.226 我实际上已经和他 00:01:51.226 --> 00:01:53.304 来回通信过几次 00:01:53.700 --> 00:01:57.103 00:01:57.103 --> 00:02:00.020 00:02:00.020 --> 00:02:03.700 00:02:03.700 --> 00:02:07.000 00:02:07.490 --> 00:02:08.594 00:02:08.594 --> 00:02:10.550 00:02:11.030 --> 00:02:12.500 00:02:12.500 --> 00:02:13.700 00:02:13.700 --> 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00:08:16.006 00:08:16.780 --> 00:08:19.444 00:08:20.300 --> 00:08:22.522 00:08:22.522 --> 00:08:25.000 00:08:25.000 --> 00:08:26.438 00:08:26.438 --> 00:08:28.320 00:08:28.320 --> 00:08:29.500 00:08:29.800 --> 00:08:30.800 00:08:32.760 --> 00:08:34.125 00:08:35.200 --> 00:08:37.492 00:08:37.935 --> 00:08:39.606 00:08:40.600 --> 00:08:44.077 00:08:44.930 --> 00:08:47.430 00:08:47.430 --> 00:08:49.761 00:08:49.761 --> 00:08:53.500 00:08:54.500 --> 00:08:56.936 00:08:56.936 --> 00:08:58.800 00:08:58.800 --> 00:08:59.800 00:08:59.800 --> 00:09:01.530 00:09:01.530 --> 00:09:03.230 00:09:03.230 --> 00:09:05.743 00:09:06.300 --> 00:09:08.520 00:09:08.520 --> 00:09:09.791 00:09:09.791 --> 00:09:12.008 00:09:12.008 --> 00:09:13.225 00:09:13.225 --> 00:09:15.400 00:09:15.400 --> 00:09:17.860 00:09:18.690 --> 00:09:20.096 00:09:20.096 --> 00:09:21.365 00:09:22.030 --> 00:09:23.375 00:09:24.860 --> 00:09:26.595 00:09:26.595 --> 00:09:29.943 00:09:30.190 --> 00:09:33.460 00:09:33.460 --> 00:09:35.230 00:09:35.230 --> 00:09:37.000 00:09:37.000 --> 00:09:38.310 00:09:38.310 --> 00:09:39.720 00:09:39.720 --> 00:09:41.958 00:09:42.630 --> 00:09:46.000 00:09:46.400 --> 00:09:47.500 00:09:48.671 --> 00:09:50.245 00:09:50.245 --> 00:09:53.348 00:09:53.348 --> 00:09:56.435 00:09:57.200 --> 00:09:59.736 00:10:00.196 --> 00:10:01.376 00:10:01.376 --> 00:10:03.410 00:10:03.410 --> 00:10:04.583 00:10:05.000 --> 00:10:07.000 00:10:07.000 --> 00:10:08.460 00:10:08.460 --> 00:10:09.560 00:10:09.560 --> 00:10:11.100 00:10:11.100 --> 00:10:12.498 00:10:12.498 --> 00:10:15.143 若您想观看其他的诺贝尔对谈视频 00:10:15.143 --> 00:10:16.207 请单击此处 00:10:16.207 --> 00:10:18.409 或者，如果您想了解 计量经济学的更多相关信息 00:10:18.640 --> 00:10:21.240 请查看 Josh 的 Mastering Econometrics 系列视频 00:10:21.800 --> 00:10:24.540 如果您想了解更多关于 Guido、Josh 和 Isaiah 的信息 00:10:24.860 --> 00:10:26.502 请查看说明中的链接