1 00:00:00,130 --> 00:00:02,200 2 00:00:03,645 --> 00:00:05,600 欢迎观看诺贝尔对谈 3 00:00:07,250 --> 00:00:10,240 在本集中,Josh Angrist 和 Guido Imbens 4 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:11,920 与 Isaiah Andrews 坐下来 5 00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:14,303 讨论他们的研究最初是如何被接受的 6 00:00:14,999 --> 00:00:17,090 以及他们如何回应批评 7 00:00:18,700 --> 00:00:20,380 当时,你有没有觉得 8 00:00:20,380 --> 00:00:21,627 自己在做一件大事 9 00:00:21,627 --> 00:00:25,152 认为这会是一整套工程的开端 10 00:00:25,152 --> 00:00:27,202 而这个工程将会非常重要,还是...? 11 00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,000 说这是一套大工程 12 00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:31,894 确实,我觉得,“哇,这--” 13 00:00:32,277 --> 00:00:35,045 我们已经证明了一些 我们从前所不知道的事 14 00:00:35,045 --> 00:00:36,114 而这是值得知道的 15 00:00:36,114 --> 00:00:38,033 是,回到... 16 00:00:38,741 --> 00:00:41,080 与我的就业市场报告或其他东西相比-- 17 00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:45,560 不,我觉得这实际上 是一个非常清晰的结果 18 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,657 但肯定会有不同的解释 19 00:00:49,657 --> 00:00:52,420 我想没有人会说 20 00:00:52,420 --> 00:00:55,487 “好吧,这是研究人员的噩梦 21 00:00:56,043 --> 00:00:59,386 22 00:01:00,230 --> 00:01:02,003 你认为你发现了一些东西, 23 00:01:02,003 --> 00:01:04,461 然后其他人说,‘哦,我知道。’” 24 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:07,220 但绝对有必要让大家相信 25 00:01:07,220 --> 00:01:10,370 这是值得了解的,工具变量 26 00:01:10,370 --> 00:01:12,687 估计了依从者的因果效应 27 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:16,178 是,即使需要很长时间 28 00:01:16,178 --> 00:01:19,348 才能说服更多观众 29 00:01:19,820 --> 00:01:24,346 有时也很快,但在一小群人中的 30 00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:26,645 接受度还是不错的 31 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:31,297 32 00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:33,289 33 00:01:33,289 --> 00:01:35,645 34 00:01:35,645 --> 00:01:38,886 35 00:01:39,696 --> 00:01:43,700 36 00:01:43,700 --> 00:01:45,197 37 00:01:45,932 --> 00:01:47,173 38 00:01:47,500 --> 00:01:49,150 39 00:01:49,150 --> 00:01:51,226 40 00:01:51,226 --> 00:01:53,304 41 00:01:53,700 --> 00:01:57,103 42 00:01:57,103 --> 00:02:00,020 43 00:02:00,020 --> 00:02:03,700 44 00:02:03,700 --> 00:02:07,000 45 00:02:07,490 --> 00:02:08,594 46 00:02:08,594 --> 00:02:10,550 47 00:02:11,030 --> 00:02:12,500 48 00:02:12,500 --> 00:02:13,700 49 00:02:13,700 --> 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00:10:03,410 227 00:10:03,410 --> 00:10:04,583 228 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,000 229 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:08,460 230 00:10:08,460 --> 00:10:09,560 231 00:10:09,560 --> 00:10:11,100 232 00:10:11,100 --> 00:10:12,498 233 00:10:12,498 --> 00:10:15,143 若您想观看其他的诺贝尔对谈视频 234 00:10:15,143 --> 00:10:16,207 请单击此处 235 00:10:16,207 --> 00:10:18,409 或者,如果您想了解 计量经济学的更多相关信息 236 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,240 请查看 Josh 的 Mastering Econometrics 系列视频 237 00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:24,540 如果您想了解更多关于 Guido、Josh 和 Isaiah 的信息 238 00:10:24,860 --> 00:10:26,502 请查看说明中的链接