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欢迎观看诺贝尔对谈

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在本集中，Josh Angrist 和 Guido Imbens

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与 Isaiah Andrews 坐下来

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讨论他们的研究最初是如何被接受的

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以及他们如何回应批评

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当时，你有没有觉得

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自己在做一件大事

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认为这会是一整套工程的开端

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而这个工程将会非常重要，还是...？

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说这是一套大工程

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确实，我觉得，“哇，这--”

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我们已经证明了一些
我们从前所不知道的事

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而这是值得知道的

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是，回到...

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与我的就业市场报告或其他东西相比--

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不，我觉得这实际上
是一个非常清晰的结果

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但肯定会有不同的解释

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我想没有人会说

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“好吧，这是研究人员的噩梦

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你认为你发现了一些东西，

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然后其他人说，‘哦，我知道。’”

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但绝对有必要让大家相信

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这是值得了解的，工具变量

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估计了依从者的因果效应

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是，即使需要很长时间

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才能说服更多观众

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有时也很快，但在一小群人中的

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接受度还是不错的

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Gary 显然从一开始就非常喜欢这个想法

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我记得…

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因为那时 Josh 已经去了以色列

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但我记得向 Don Rubin 解释过

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他说，“你可知，这不得了啊。"

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虽然不是马上

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Don 经过深思熟虑

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当你和 Don 联系上的时候

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我实际上已经和他

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来回通信过几次

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我记得某天我接到他的电话或电邮

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他说他坐在罗马机场

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看着报纸心想

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“喔，不，你们实际上有了重大的发现。”

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我们对此感到高兴

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但这比我想的还要久才发生

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那不是马上发生的

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因为我知道那件事发生时

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我已经回到了以色列

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我在那个夏天去了以色列--

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我在哈佛只呆了两年

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我们一起度过了一年

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不简单啊，我的意思是
这一年对我们来说非常重要

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是的

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我们知道有好事发生了

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但我们不认为那足以改变生活
回想起来才发现

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如您所说的听起来，最初一小群人

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是很容易接受的

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而对更广大的人群而言
他们可能需要一些时间

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才能将 LATE 框架视为看待世界的

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一种有价值的方式

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在那段时间里

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人们说这不是看待世界的

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有用方式，你是否认为

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他们可能是对的？

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你有没有感到气馁？
你是怎么想的呢？

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我沒有感到气馁

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说这些都是聪明人

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见多识广的计量经济学家、

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老练的读者

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我认为评论的实质是

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这不是计量经济学的内容

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当时传播的计量经济学是关于结构的

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有一种观点认为经济中存在结构

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我们的工作是发现它

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它的结构之所以如此
是因为它本质上是不变的

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所以我们说，在 LATE 定理中

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每个工具都会产生自己的因果效应

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这在某种程度上与此相矛盾

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这就是紧张的所在

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人们不想放弃这个想法

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是的，我记得有一次人们开始

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大声反对这一点--

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那从没有让我如此困扰

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明显地，我们在那里取得了结果

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它变得有些争议

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但是以一种好的方式引起争议

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人们很明显地觉得

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他们必须站出来以示反对，因为--

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嗯，我们现在认为那很好

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我们当时可能并不喜欢

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我记得我有点不高兴

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有一次晚餐有人说

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“不，不，不，Josh 的那篇论文--

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对这个专业造成了伤害。”

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我们确实得到了这样的反应

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在某种程度上
这可能是当时在经济学中

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普遍存在的文化

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我后来想了想
万一发生在现在呢？

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如果我是坐在那次谈话中的资深人士

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我会站出来，因为那确实不对

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没那么糟吧

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我认为那批评...

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它并没有完全被误导

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也许是错的

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不，不，你可以说那篇论文是错误的

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但它指的是

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这对专业造成了伤害--

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- 那不是真的...
- 这有点牵扯到个人名声

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- 是的，不是对我

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而是在我的高级同事面前这样做

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但没有人说结果是错误的

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我也记得

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有些评论发人深省

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对于一般的因果反应论文

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我们有一些负面评价

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有人说，“这些依从者--
你不知道他们是谁。”

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说你正在评估

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疗程对治疗对象的影响这类事

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那是一回事

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你可以告诉我谁接受了疗程

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CPS 的人，你无法告诉我谁是依从者

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这是一个合理的挑战

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这当然是公平的，我明白为什么

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那部分让人们有点不安和不舒服

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但与此同时

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因为它表明你真的无法超越这一点

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所以实现它是一件非常有用的事情

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我记得在我们得到关键结果的那天

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我在想，“哇，这真是太好了。

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在这里，我们有洞察力，但它显然...”

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我们不得不在某天卖掉它

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几年来，我们不得不出售它

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事实证明它非常有用

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我认为我们当时并不理解
它会如此有用

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不

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我很早就觉得这是一个实质性的见解

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是的，我们完成了一件大事

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但我不认为那就是目标

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我不认为我们的目标是诺贝尔奖

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我们很高兴能在 
Econometrica 中获得注释

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是否有一些因素或方法

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可以让人更好地识别东西

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并花时间去做，而不是忽视它？

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有时我认为这很有帮助

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如果你试图说服某人

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你有一些有用的东西要说

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而他们可能不会说你的语言

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那么你可能需要学习他们的语言

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是的，完全正确

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我们对 Don 就是如此
我们想出了办法--

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我记得我们很难跟 Don

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解释排除限制

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也许是正确的

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Guido 和我最终发现

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它的表述不是很清楚

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我们想出了

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对我们三个人都有用的一种方法

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在潜在的结果框架中做到这一点

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是的

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它适用于更大的文学作品

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但我认为你所说的完全正确

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你需要想办法，而不是只会说

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“好吧，我会这种语言，效果很好，

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我必须说服其他人也使用这一种语言。”

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你可以先弄清楚
他们使用的是什么语言

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然后，只有这样，你才能试着说

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“好吧，但你现在是这样想的。”

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但这实际上是一件相当困难的事

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你从不同学科找人

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说服他们，不同部门的两个初级教师

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实际上有话要对你说--

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这需要付出相当大的努力

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是的，我给 Don 写了很多次信

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都是相当长的內容

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我记得我认为这是值得的

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如果我能说服 Don

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那将在一定程度上验证框架

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我认为你和 Don

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都更有信​​心你是对的

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我们过去经常争论

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你有时会评判

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有趣

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不伤人的

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我记得有次变得有点暴躁

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若您想观看其他的诺贝尔对谈视频

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请单击此处

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或者，如果您想了解
计量经济学的更多相关信息

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请查看 Josh 的 
Mastering Econometrics 系列视频

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如果您想了解更多关于 
Guido、Josh 和 Isaiah 的信息

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请查看说明中的链接