[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.13,0:00:02.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.64,0:00:05.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,欢迎观看诺贝尔对谈
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.25,0:00:10.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在本集中，Josh Angrist 和 Guido Imbens
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.24,0:00:11.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,与 Isaiah Andrews 坐下来
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.92,0:00:14.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,讨论他们的研究最初是如何被接受的
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.100,0:00:17.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,以及他们如何回应批评
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.70,0:00:20.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,当时，你有没有觉得
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.38,0:00:21.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,自己在做一件大事
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.63,0:00:25.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,认为这会是一整套工程的开端
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.15,0:00:27.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,而这个工程将会非常重要，还是...？
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.60,0:00:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,说这是一套大工程
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.00,0:00:31.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,确实，我觉得，“哇，这--”
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.28,0:00:35.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们已经证明了一些\N我们从前所不知道的事
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.04,0:00:36.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,而这是值得知道的
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.11,0:00:38.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,是，回到...
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.74,0:00:41.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,与我的就业市场报告或其他东西相比--
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.08,0:00:45.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,不，我觉得这实际上\N是一个非常清晰的结果
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.40,0:00:49.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但肯定会有不同的解释
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.66,0:00:52.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我想没有人会说
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.42,0:00:55.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,“好吧，这是研究人员的噩梦
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.04,0:00:59.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.23,0:01:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你认为你发现了一些东西，
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.00,0:01:04.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,然后其他人说，‘哦，我知道。’”
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.00,0:01:07.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但绝对有必要让大家相信
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.22,0:01:10.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这是值得了解的，工具变量
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.37,0:01:12.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,估计了依从者的因果效应
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.20,0:01:16.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,是，即使需要很长时间
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.18,0:01:19.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,才能说服更多观众
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.82,0:01:24.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有时也很快，但在一小群人中的
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.80,0:01:26.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,接受度还是不错的
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.20,0:01:31.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gary 显然从一开始就非常喜欢这个想法
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.80,0:01:33.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我记得…
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.29,0:01:35.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,因为那时 Josh 已经去了以色列
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.64,0:01:38.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但我记得向 Don Rubin 解释过
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.70,0:01:43.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,他说，“你可知，这不得了啊。"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.70,0:01:45.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,虽然不是马上
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.93,0:01:47.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Don 经过深思熟虑
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.50,0:01:49.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,当你和 Don 联系上的时候
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.15,0:01:51.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我实际上已经和他
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.23,0:01:53.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,来回通信过几次
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.70,0:01:57.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我记得某天我接到他的电话或电邮
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.10,0:02:00.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,他说他坐在罗马机场
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.02,0:02:03.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,看着报纸心想
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.70,0:02:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,“喔，不，你们实际上有了重大的发现。”
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.49,0:02:08.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们对此感到高兴
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.59,0:02:10.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但这比我想的还要久才发生
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.03,0:02:12.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,那不是马上发生的
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.50,0:02:13.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.70,0:02:15.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,因为我知道那件事发生时
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.32,0:02:16.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我已经回到了以色列
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.63,0:02:18.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我在那个夏天去了以色列--
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.39,0:02:21.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我在哈佛只呆了两年
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.19,0:02:22.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们一起度过了一年
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.54,0:02:25.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,不简单啊，我的意思是\N这一年对我们来说非常重要
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.90,0:02:27.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,是的
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.69,0:02:30.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们知道有好事发生了
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.20,0:02:33.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但我们不认为那足以改变生活\N回想起来才发现
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.70,0:02:35.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.62,0:02:37.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,如您所说的听起来，最初一小群人
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.50,0:02:39.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,是很容易接受的
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.19,0:02:43.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,而对更广大的人群而言\N他们可能需要一些时间
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.09,0:02:45.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,才能将 LATE 框架视为看待世界的
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.91,0:02:47.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,一种有价值的方式
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.62,0:02:50.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在那段时间里
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.10,0:02:52.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,人们说这不是看待世界的
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.13,0:02:54.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有用方式，你是否认为
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.45,0:02:55.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,他们可能是对的？
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.75,0:02:58.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你有没有感到气馁？\N你是怎么想的呢？
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.36,0:02:59.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我沒有感到气馁
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.72,0:03:01.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,说这些都是聪明人
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.12,0:03:06.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,见多识广的计量经济学家、
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.12,0:03:07.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,老练的读者
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.90,0:03:11.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我认为评论的实质是
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.32,0:03:14.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这不是计量经济学的内容
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.30,0:03:20.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,当时传播的计量经济学是关于结构的
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.30,0:03:24.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有一种观点认为经济中存在结构
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.10,0:03:27.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们的工作是发现它
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.20,0:03:30.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,它的结构之所以如此\N是因为它本质上是不变的
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.57,0:03:34.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,所以我们说，在 LATE 定理中
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.90,0:03:37.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,每个工具都会产生自己的因果效应
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.70,0:03:41.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这在某种程度上与此相矛盾
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.39,0:03:43.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这就是紧张的所在
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.64,0:03:45.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,人们不想放弃这个想法
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.30,0:03:50.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,是的，我记得有一次人们开始
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.20,0:03:55.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,大声反对这一点--
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.90,0:03:59.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,那从没有让我如此困扰
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.48,0:04:03.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,明显地，我们在那里取得了结果
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.05,0:04:05.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,它变得有些争议
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.88,0:04:08.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但是以一种好的方式引起争议
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.62,0:04:10.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,人们很明显地觉得
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.82,0:04:13.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,他们必须站出来以示反对，因为--
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.97,0:04:15.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,嗯，我们现在认为那很好
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.43,0:04:19.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们当时可能并不喜欢
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.17,0:04:23.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我记得我有点不高兴
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.08,0:04:24.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有一次晚餐有人说
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.78,0:04:27.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,“不，不，不，Josh 的那篇论文--
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.86,0:04:30.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,对这个专业造成了伤害。”
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.05,0:04:33.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们确实得到了这样的反应
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.41,0:04:38.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在某种程度上\N这可能是当时在经济学中
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.40,0:04:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,普遍存在的文化
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.40,0:04:44.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我后来想了想\N万一发生在现在呢？
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.60,0:04:47.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,如果我是坐在那次谈话中的资深人士
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.20,0:04:51.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我会站出来，因为那确实不对
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.00,0:04:54.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,没那么糟吧
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.60,0:04:56.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我认为那批评...
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.70,0:04:59.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,它并没有完全被误导
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.07,0:05:01.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,也许是错的
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.80,0:05:04.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,不，不，你可以说那篇论文是错误的
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.28,0:05:06.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但它指的是
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.44,0:05:08.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这对专业造成了伤害--
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.13,0:05:10.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- 那不是真的...\N- 这有点牵扯到个人名声
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.30,0:05:12.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- 是的，不是对我
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.65,0:05:14.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,而是在我的高级同事面前这样做
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.19,0:05:17.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但没有人说结果是错误的
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.37,0:05:18.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我也记得
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.70,0:05:21.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有些评论发人深省
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.58,0:05:23.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,对于一般的因果反应论文
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.06,0:05:25.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们有一些负面评价
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.50,0:05:30.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,有人说，“这些依从者--\N你不知道他们是谁。”
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.97,0:05:33.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,说你正在评估
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.89,0:05:35.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,疗程对治疗对象的影响这类事
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.68,0:05:36.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,那是一回事
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.84,0:05:38.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你可以告诉我谁接受了疗程
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.84,0:05:42.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,CPS 的人，你无法告诉我谁是依从者
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.93,0:05:44.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这是一个合理的挑战
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.68,0:05:47.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,这当然是公平的，我明白为什么
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.88,0:05:53.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,那部分让人们有点不安和不舒服
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.30,0:05:56.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但与此同时
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.90,0:06:00.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,因为它表明你真的无法超越这一点
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.80,0:06:03.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,所以实现它是一件非常有用的事情
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.63,0:06:08.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我记得在我们得到关键结果的那天
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.24,0:06:13.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我在想，“哇，这真是太好了。
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.22,0:06:16.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在这里，我们有洞察力，但它显然...”
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.50,0:06:19.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们不得不在某天卖掉它
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.48,0:06:21.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,几年来，我们不得不出售它
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.48,0:06:24.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,事实证明它非常有用
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.50,0:06:28.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我认为我们当时并不理解\N它会如此有用
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.76,0:06:29.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,不
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.17,0:06:34.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我很早就觉得这是一个实质性的见解
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.60,0:06:36.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.44,0:06:40.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.70,0:06:42.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.60,0:06:43.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.73,0:06:46.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.86,0:06:48.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.77,0:06:51.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.56,0:06:54.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.19,0:06:56.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.60,0:06:57.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.83,0:06:59.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.48,0:07:01.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.90,0:07:04.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.89,0:07:06.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.76,0:07:07.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.91,0:07:11.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.74,0:07:14.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.05,0:07:16.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.43,0:07:18.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.80,0:07:21.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.95,0:07:24.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.40,0:07:27.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.45,0:07:29.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.32,0:07:32.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.22,0:07:33.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.42,0:07:35.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.45,0:07:37.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.64,0:07:40.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.86,0:07:43.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.89,0:07:45.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.90,0:07:48.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.68,0:07:51.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.03,0:07:53.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.14,0:07:56.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.88,0:07:59.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.10,0:08:02.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.40,0:08:04.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.60,0:08:06.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.50,0:08:09.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.42,0:08:11.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.87,0:08:13.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.60,0:08:16.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.78,0:08:19.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.30,0:08:22.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.52,0:08:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.00,0:08:26.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.44,0:08:28.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.32,0:08:29.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.80,0:08:30.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.76,0:08:34.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.20,0:08:37.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.94,0:08:39.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.60,0:08:44.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.93,0:08:47.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.43,0:08:49.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.76,0:08:53.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.50,0:08:56.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.94,0:08:58.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.80,0:08:59.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.80,0:09:01.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.53,0:09:03.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.23,0:09:05.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.30,0:09:08.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.52,0:09:09.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
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Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.10,0:10:12.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.50,0:10:15.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,若您想观看其他的诺贝尔对谈视频
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.14,0:10:16.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,请单击此处
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.21,0:10:18.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,或者，如果您想了解\N计量经济学的更多相关信息
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.64,0:10:21.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,请查看 Josh 的 \NMastering Econometrics 系列视频
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.80,0:10:24.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,如果您想了解更多关于 \NGuido、Josh 和 Isaiah 的信息
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.86,0:10:26.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,请查看说明中的链接