1
00:00:00,130 --> 00:00:02,200


2
00:00:03,645 --> 00:00:05,600
欢迎观看诺贝尔对谈

3
00:00:07,250 --> 00:00:10,240
在本集中，Josh Angrist 和 Guido Imbens

4
00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:11,920
与 Isaiah Andrews 坐下来

5
00:00:11,920 --> 00:00:14,303
讨论他们的研究最初是如何被接受的

6
00:00:14,999 --> 00:00:17,090
以及他们如何回应批评

7
00:00:18,700 --> 00:00:20,380
当时，你有没有觉得

8
00:00:20,380 --> 00:00:21,627
自己在做一件大事

9
00:00:21,627 --> 00:00:25,152
认为这会是一整套工程的开端

10
00:00:25,152 --> 00:00:27,202
而这个工程将会非常重要，还是...？

11
00:00:27,600 --> 00:00:30,000
说这是一套大工程

12
00:00:30,000 --> 00:00:31,894
确实，我觉得，“哇，这--”

13
00:00:32,277 --> 00:00:35,045
我们已经证明了一些
我们从前所不知道的事

14
00:00:35,045 --> 00:00:36,114
而这是值得知道的

15
00:00:36,114 --> 00:00:38,033
是，回到...

16
00:00:38,741 --> 00:00:41,080
与我的就业市场报告或其他东西相比--

17
00:00:41,080 --> 00:00:45,560
不，我觉得这实际上
是一个非常清晰的结果

18
00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,657
但肯定会有不同的解释

19
00:00:49,657 --> 00:00:52,420
我想没有人会说

20
00:00:52,420 --> 00:00:55,487
“好吧，这是研究人员的噩梦

21
00:00:56,043 --> 00:00:59,386


22
00:01:00,230 --> 00:01:02,003
你认为你发现了一些东西，

23
00:01:02,003 --> 00:01:04,461
然后其他人说，‘哦，我知道。’”

24
00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:07,220
但绝对有必要让大家相信

25
00:01:07,220 --> 00:01:10,370
这是值得了解的，工具变量

26
00:01:10,370 --> 00:01:12,687
估计了依从者的因果效应

27
00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:16,178
是，即使需要很长时间

28
00:01:16,178 --> 00:01:19,348
才能说服更多观众

29
00:01:19,820 --> 00:01:24,346
有时也很快，但在一小群人中的

30
00:01:24,800 --> 00:01:26,645
接受度还是不错的

31
00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:31,297
Gary 显然从一开始就非常喜欢这个想法

32
00:01:31,800 --> 00:01:33,289
我记得…

33
00:01:33,289 --> 00:01:35,645
因为那时 Josh 已经去了以色列

34
00:01:35,645 --> 00:01:38,886
但我记得向 Don Rubin 解释过

35
00:01:39,696 --> 00:01:43,700
他说，“你可知，这不得了啊。"

36
00:01:43,700 --> 00:01:45,197
虽然不是马上

37
00:01:45,932 --> 00:01:47,173
Don 经过深思熟虑

38
00:01:47,500 --> 00:01:49,150
当你和 Don 联系上的时候

39
00:01:49,150 --> 00:01:51,226
我实际上已经和他

40
00:01:51,226 --> 00:01:53,304
来回通信过几次

41
00:01:53,700 --> 00:01:57,103
我记得某天我接到他的电话或电邮

42
00:01:57,103 --> 00:02:00,020
他说他坐在罗马机场

43
00:02:00,020 --> 00:02:03,700
看着报纸心想

44
00:02:03,700 --> 00:02:07,000
“喔，不，你们实际上有了重大的发现。”

45
00:02:07,490 --> 00:02:08,594
我们对此感到高兴

46
00:02:08,594 --> 00:02:10,550
但这比我想的还要久才发生

47
00:02:11,030 --> 00:02:12,500
那不是马上发生的

48
00:02:12,500 --> 00:02:13,700


49
00:02:13,700 --> 00:02:15,325
因为我知道那件事发生时

50
00:02:15,325 --> 00:02:16,627
我已经回到了以色列

51
00:02:16,627 --> 00:02:18,750
我在那个夏天去了以色列--

52
00:02:19,390 --> 00:02:21,190
我在哈佛只呆了两年

53
00:02:21,190 --> 00:02:22,540
我们一起度过了一年

54
00:02:22,540 --> 00:02:25,700
不简单啊，我的意思是
这一年对我们来说非常重要

55
00:02:25,900 --> 00:02:27,200
是的

56
00:02:27,690 --> 00:02:30,200
我们知道有好事发生了

57
00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:33,700
但我们不认为那足以改变生活
回想起来才发现

58
00:02:33,700 --> 00:02:35,620


59
00:02:35,620 --> 00:02:37,495
如您所说的听起来，最初一小群人

60
00:02:37,495 --> 00:02:39,190
是很容易接受的

61
00:02:39,190 --> 00:02:43,090
而对更广大的人群而言
他们可能需要一些时间

62
00:02:43,090 --> 00:02:45,912
才能将 LATE 框架视为看待世界的

63
00:02:45,912 --> 00:02:47,620
一种有价值的方式

64
00:02:47,620 --> 00:02:50,100
在那段时间里

65
00:02:50,100 --> 00:02:52,128
人们说这不是看待世界的

66
00:02:52,128 --> 00:02:54,450
有用方式，你是否认为

67
00:02:54,450 --> 00:02:55,751
他们可能是对的？

68
00:02:55,751 --> 00:02:58,360
你有没有感到气馁？
你是怎么想的呢？

69
00:02:58,360 --> 00:02:59,721
我沒有感到气馁

70
00:02:59,721 --> 00:03:01,119
说这些都是聪明人

71
00:03:01,119 --> 00:03:06,117
见多识广的计量经济学家、

72
00:03:06,117 --> 00:03:07,800
老练的读者

73
00:03:08,900 --> 00:03:11,324
我认为评论的实质是

74
00:03:11,324 --> 00:03:14,297
这不是计量经济学的内容

75
00:03:14,297 --> 00:03:20,572
当时传播的计量经济学是关于结构的

76
00:03:21,300 --> 00:03:24,490
有一种观点认为经济中存在结构

77
00:03:25,100 --> 00:03:27,200
我们的工作是发现它

78
00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:30,952
它的结构之所以如此
是因为它本质上是不变的

79
00:03:32,570 --> 00:03:34,900
所以我们说，在 LATE 定理中

80
00:03:34,900 --> 00:03:37,699
每个工具都会产生自己的因果效应

81
00:03:37,699 --> 00:03:41,386
这在某种程度上与此相矛盾

82
00:03:41,386 --> 00:03:43,640
这就是紧张的所在

83
00:03:43,640 --> 00:03:45,551
人们不想放弃这个想法

84
00:03:46,300 --> 00:03:50,369
是的，我记得有一次人们开始

85
00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:55,664
大声反对这一点--

86
00:03:56,900 --> 00:03:59,483
那从没有让我如此困扰

87
00:03:59,483 --> 00:04:03,051
明显地，我们在那里取得了结果

88
00:04:03,051 --> 00:04:05,878
它变得有些争议

89
00:04:05,878 --> 00:04:08,395
但是以一种好的方式引起争议

90
00:04:08,620 --> 00:04:10,190
人们很明显地觉得

91
00:04:10,820 --> 00:04:13,835
他们必须站出来以示反对，因为--

92
00:04:13,970 --> 00:04:15,649
嗯，我们现在认为那很好

93
00:04:17,426 --> 00:04:19,238
我们当时可能并不喜欢

94
00:04:20,168 --> 00:04:23,080
我记得我有点不高兴

95
00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:24,780
有一次晚餐有人说

96
00:04:24,780 --> 00:04:27,455
“不，不，不，Josh 的那篇论文--

97
00:04:28,855 --> 00:04:30,749
对这个专业造成了伤害。”

98
00:04:32,050 --> 00:04:33,850
我们确实得到了这样的反应

99
00:04:35,410 --> 00:04:38,200
在某种程度上
这可能是当时在经济学中

100
00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:40,000
普遍存在的文化

101
00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:44,097
我后来想了想
万一发生在现在呢？

102
00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:47,682
如果我是坐在那次谈话中的资深人士

103
00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:51,952
我会站出来，因为那确实不对

104
00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:54,200
没那么糟吧

105
00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:56,262
我认为那批评...

106
00:04:57,700 --> 00:04:59,298
它并没有完全被误导

107
00:05:00,070 --> 00:05:01,351
也许是错的

108
00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:04,485
不，不，你可以说那篇论文是错误的

109
00:05:05,280 --> 00:05:06,440
但它指的是

110
00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:08,128
这对专业造成了伤害--

111
00:05:08,128 --> 00:05:10,300
- 那不是真的...
- 这有点牵扯到个人名声

112
00:05:10,300 --> 00:05:12,646
- 是的，不是对我

113
00:05:12,646 --> 00:05:14,442
而是在我的高级同事面前这样做

114
00:05:15,191 --> 00:05:17,369
但没有人说结果是错误的

115
00:05:17,369 --> 00:05:18,700
我也记得

116
00:05:18,700 --> 00:05:21,579
有些评论发人深省

117
00:05:21,579 --> 00:05:23,059


118
00:05:23,059 --> 00:05:25,861


119
00:05:26,500 --> 00:05:30,361


120
00:05:31,967 --> 00:05:33,891


121
00:05:33,891 --> 00:05:35,678


122
00:05:35,678 --> 00:05:36,840


123
00:05:36,840 --> 00:05:38,400


124
00:05:38,837 --> 00:05:42,289


125
00:05:42,929 --> 00:05:44,679


126
00:05:44,679 --> 00:05:47,800


127
00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:53,502


128
00:05:54,300 --> 00:05:56,400


129
00:05:56,900 --> 00:06:00,244


130
00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,775


131
00:06:04,630 --> 00:06:08,831


132
00:06:09,238 --> 00:06:13,113


133
00:06:14,221 --> 00:06:16,978


134
00:06:17,500 --> 00:06:19,250


135
00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:21,261


136
00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:24,892


137
00:06:25,500 --> 00:06:28,761


138
00:06:28,761 --> 00:06:29,871


139
00:06:30,170 --> 00:06:34,600


140
00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:36,440


141
00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:40,041


142
00:06:40,700 --> 00:06:42,600


143
00:06:42,600 --> 00:06:43,730


144
00:06:43,730 --> 00:06:46,243


145
00:06:46,859 --> 00:06:48,829


146
00:06:49,770 --> 00:06:51,560


147
00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:54,186


148
00:06:54,186 --> 00:06:56,600


149
00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:57,830


150
00:06:57,830 --> 00:06:59,478


151
00:06:59,478 --> 00:07:01,247


152
00:07:01,900 --> 00:07:04,176


153
00:07:04,894 --> 00:07:06,761


154
00:07:06,761 --> 00:07:07,910


155
00:07:07,910 --> 00:07:11,736


156
00:07:11,736 --> 00:07:14,052


157
00:07:14,052 --> 00:07:16,058


158
00:07:17,430 --> 00:07:18,993


159
00:07:19,804 --> 00:07:21,948


160
00:07:21,948 --> 00:07:24,420


161
00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:27,450


162
00:07:27,450 --> 00:07:29,316


163
00:07:29,316 --> 00:07:32,218


164
00:07:32,218 --> 00:07:33,419


165
00:07:33,419 --> 00:07:35,454


166
00:07:35,454 --> 00:07:37,639


167
00:07:37,639 --> 00:07:40,860


168
00:07:40,860 --> 00:07:43,894


169
00:07:43,894 --> 00:07:45,900


170
00:07:45,900 --> 00:07:48,188


171
00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:51,028


172
00:07:51,028 --> 00:07:53,140


173
00:07:53,140 --> 00:07:56,880


174
00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,098


175
00:07:59,098 --> 00:08:02,405


176
00:08:02,405 --> 00:08:04,366


177
00:08:04,596 --> 00:08:06,516


178
00:08:07,500 --> 00:08:09,782


179
00:08:10,420 --> 00:08:11,868


180
00:08:11,868 --> 00:08:13,805


181
00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:16,006


182
00:08:16,780 --> 00:08:19,444


183
00:08:20,300 --> 00:08:22,522


184
00:08:22,522 --> 00:08:25,000


185
00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:26,438


186
00:08:26,438 --> 00:08:28,320


187
00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:29,500


188
00:08:29,800 --> 00:08:30,800


189
00:08:32,760 --> 00:08:34,125


190
00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,492


191
00:08:37,935 --> 00:08:39,606


192
00:08:40,600 --> 00:08:44,077


193
00:08:44,930 --> 00:08:47,430


194
00:08:47,430 --> 00:08:49,761


195
00:08:49,761 --> 00:08:53,500


196
00:08:54,500 --> 00:08:56,936


197
00:08:56,936 --> 00:08:58,800


198
00:08:58,800 --> 00:08:59,800


199
00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:01,530


200
00:09:01,530 --> 00:09:03,230


201
00:09:03,230 --> 00:09:05,743


202
00:09:06,300 --> 00:09:08,520


203
00:09:08,520 --> 00:09:09,791


204
00:09:09,791 --> 00:09:12,008


205
00:09:12,008 --> 00:09:13,225


206
00:09:13,225 --> 00:09:15,400


207
00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:17,860


208
00:09:18,690 --> 00:09:20,096


209
00:09:20,096 --> 00:09:21,365


210
00:09:22,030 --> 00:09:23,375


211
00:09:24,860 --> 00:09:26,595


212
00:09:26,595 --> 00:09:29,943


213
00:09:30,190 --> 00:09:33,460


214
00:09:33,460 --> 00:09:35,230


215
00:09:35,230 --> 00:09:37,000


216
00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:38,310


217
00:09:38,310 --> 00:09:39,720


218
00:09:39,720 --> 00:09:41,958


219
00:09:42,630 --> 00:09:46,000


220
00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:47,500


221
00:09:48,671 --> 00:09:50,245


222
00:09:50,245 --> 00:09:53,348


223
00:09:53,348 --> 00:09:56,435


224
00:09:57,200 --> 00:09:59,736


225
00:10:00,196 --> 00:10:01,376


226
00:10:01,376 --> 00:10:03,410


227
00:10:03,410 --> 00:10:04,583


228
00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:07,000


229
00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:08,460


230
00:10:08,460 --> 00:10:09,560


231
00:10:09,560 --> 00:10:11,100


232
00:10:11,100 --> 00:10:12,498


233
00:10:12,498 --> 00:10:15,143
若您想观看其他的诺贝尔对谈视频

234
00:10:15,143 --> 00:10:16,207
请单击此处

235
00:10:16,207 --> 00:10:18,409
或者，如果您想了解
计量经济学的更多相关信息

236
00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,240
请查看 Josh 的 
Mastering Econometrics 系列视频

237
00:10:21,800 --> 00:10:24,540
如果您想了解更多关于 
Guido、Josh 和 Isaiah 的信息

238
00:10:24,860 --> 00:10:26,502
请查看说明中的链接