[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.13,0:00:02.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:00:03.64,0:00:05.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] Welcome\Nto Nobel Conversations.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.25,0:00:10.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In this episode, Josh Angrist \Nand Guido Imbens
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.24,0:00:11.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sit down with Isaiah Andrews
Dialogue: 0,0:00:11.92,0:00:14.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to discuss how their research\Nwas initially received
Dialogue: 0,0:00:14.100,0:00:17.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how they responded \Nto criticism.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.70,0:00:20.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Isaiah] At the time, \Ndid you feel like
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.38,0:00:21.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you were on to something,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.63,0:00:25.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you felt this was the beginning\Nof a whole line of work
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.15,0:00:27.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you felt like was going \Nto be important or...?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.60,0:00:30.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Guido] Not so much\Nthat it was a whole line of work,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:30.00,0:00:31.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but certainly, I felt like, \N"Wow, this --"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.28,0:00:35.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] We've proved something \Nwe didn't know before,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.04,0:00:36.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it was worth knowing.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.11,0:00:38.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Yeah, going back to the...
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.74,0:00:41.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,compared to my job market\Npaper or something --
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.08,0:00:45.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No, I felt this was actually \Na very clear, crisp result.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.40,0:00:49.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- But there was definitely \Na mixed reception,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.66,0:00:52.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I don't think\Nanybody said that,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.42,0:00:55.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Oh, well, this is \Nalready something
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.04,0:00:59.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is the nightmare scenario\Nfor a researcher,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.23,0:01:02.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where you think\Nyou've discovered something
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.00,0:01:04.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then somebody else says, \N'Oh, I knew that.'"
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.00,0:01:07.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But there definitely was \Na need to convince people
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.22,0:01:10.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that this was worth knowing,\Nthat instrumental variables
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.37,0:01:12.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,estimates a causal effect \Nfor compliers.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.20,0:01:16.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Yeah, but even though\Nit took a long time
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.18,0:01:19.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to convince a bigger audience,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.82,0:01:24.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sometimes even fairly quickly, \Nthe reception was pretty good
Dialogue: 0,0:01:24.80,0:01:26.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,among a small group of people.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.20,0:01:31.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Gary clearly liked it a lot \Nfrom the beginning,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.80,0:01:33.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I remember...
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.29,0:01:35.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because at that point\NJosh had left for Israel,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.64,0:01:38.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I remember explaining it \Nto Don Rubin,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.70,0:01:43.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he was like, "You know, \Nthis really is something here."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.70,0:01:45.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Not right away though.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.93,0:01:47.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Don took some convincing.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.50,0:01:49.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By the time you got to Don,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.15,0:01:51.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there have been \Nsome back and forth with him
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.23,0:01:53.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in correspondence, actually.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.70,0:01:57.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- But I remember at some point \Ngetting a call or email from him
Dialogue: 0,0:01:57.10,0:02:00.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,saying that he was sitting \Nat the airport in Rome
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.02,0:02:03.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and looking at the paper \Nand thinking,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.70,0:02:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Yeah, no, actually, \Nyou guys are onto something."
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.49,0:02:08.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- We were happy about that.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.59,0:02:10.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that took longer \Nthan I think you remember.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.03,0:02:12.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It wasn't right away.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.50,0:02:13.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:02:13.70,0:02:15.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because I know\Nthat I was back in Israel
Dialogue: 0,0:02:15.32,0:02:16.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by the time that happened.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.63,0:02:18.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'd left for Israel \Nin the summer of --
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.39,0:02:21.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was only at Harvard \Nfor two years.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.19,0:02:22.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We had that one year.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.54,0:02:25.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is remarkable, I mean, that\None year was so fateful for us.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.90,0:02:27.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Guido] Yes.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.69,0:02:30.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think we understood there was\Nsomething good happening,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.20,0:02:33.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but maybe we didn't think it was\Nlife-changing, only in retrospect.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.70,0:02:35.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.62,0:02:37.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Isaiah] As you said, it sounds\Nlike a small group of people
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.50,0:02:39.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were initially quite receptive.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.19,0:02:42.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It perhaps took some time\Nfor a broader group of people
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.09,0:02:45.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to come around to seeing \Nthe LATE framework
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.91,0:02:47.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a valuable way to look \Nat the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.62,0:02:49.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I guess, in over\Nthe course of that,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.10,0:02:52.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were there periods \Nwhere you thought
Dialogue: 0,0:02:52.13,0:02:54.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe the people saying \Nthis wasn't a useful way
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.45,0:02:55.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to look at the world were right?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.75,0:02:58.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Did you get discouraged? \NHow did you think about?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.36,0:02:59.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- I don't think I was discouraged,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.72,0:03:01.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but the people who were saying that
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.12,0:03:06.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were smart people,\Nwell-informed econometricians,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.12,0:03:07.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sophisticated readers,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.90,0:03:11.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I think the substance\Nof the comment
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.32,0:03:14.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was this is not what \Neconometrics is about.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.30,0:03:20.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Econometrics being transmitted \Nat that time was about structure.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.30,0:03:24.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There was this idea that\Nthere's structure in the economy,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.10,0:03:27.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's our job to discover it,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.20,0:03:30.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what makes its structure\Nis it's essentially invariant.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:32.57,0:03:34.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so we're saying, \Nin the LATE theorem,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.90,0:03:37.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that every instrument produces\Nits own causal effect,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.70,0:03:41.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is in contradiction to that\Nto some extent.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.39,0:03:43.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so that was \Nwhere the tension was.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:43.64,0:03:45.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People didn't want \Nto give up that idea.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.30,0:03:50.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Yeah, I remember once \Npeople started
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.20,0:03:55.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,arguing more vocally\Nagainst that --
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.90,0:03:59.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that never really \Nbothered me that much.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.48,0:04:03.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It seemed clear that \Nwe had a result there,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.05,0:04:05.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it became somewhat \Ncontroversial,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.88,0:04:08.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but controversial in a good way.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.62,0:04:10.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was clear that people felt
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.82,0:04:13.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they had to come out\Nagainst it because --
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.97,0:04:15.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Well, I think we think\Nit's good now.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.43,0:04:19.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We might not have loved it \Nat the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.17,0:04:23.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- I remember being\Nsomewhat more upset --
Dialogue: 0,0:04:23.08,0:04:24.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,there was some dinner \Nwhere someone said,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.78,0:04:27.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"No, no, no, \Nthat paper with Josh --
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.86,0:04:30.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that was doing a disservice\Nto the profession."
Dialogue: 0,0:04:32.05,0:04:33.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- We definitely had \Nreactions like that.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.41,0:04:38.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- At some level, that may be \Nindicative of the culture
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.40,0:04:40.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in general in economics \Nat the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.40,0:04:44.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I thought back later, \Nwhat if that happened now?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.60,0:04:47.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If I was a senior person\Nsitting in that conversation,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.20,0:04:51.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I would call that out because\Nit really was not appropriate.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.00,0:04:54.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] It wasn't so bad.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.60,0:04:56.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think the criticism is...
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.70,0:04:59.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It wasn't completely misguided.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.07,0:05:01.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was maybe wrong.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:01.80,0:05:04.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- No, no, but you can say \Nthat paper is wrong,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.28,0:05:06.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's saying that
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.44,0:05:08.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's a disservice \Nto the profession --
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.13,0:05:10.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- that's not really...\N- [Isaiah] It's a bit personal.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.30,0:05:12.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Yes, and doing that not to me
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.65,0:05:14.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but in front of \Nmy senior colleagues.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.19,0:05:17.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- But nobody was saying \Nthe result was wrong,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.37,0:05:18.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I remember also,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:18.70,0:05:21.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,some of the comments \Nwere thought-provoking.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.58,0:05:23.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we had some negative reviews,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.06,0:05:25.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think, on the average \Ncausal response paper.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.50,0:05:30.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Somebody said, "These compliers --\Nyou can't figure out who they are."
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.97,0:05:33.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's one thing to say\Nyou're estimating
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.89,0:05:35.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the effect of treatment\Non the treated
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.68,0:05:36.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or something like that.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.84,0:05:38.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can tell me who's treated.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.84,0:05:42.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People in the CPS,\Nyou can't tell me who's a complier.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.93,0:05:44.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So that was a legitimate challenge.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:44.68,0:05:47.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- That's certainly fair,\Nand I can see why
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.88,0:05:53.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that part made people\Na little uneasy and uncomfortable.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.30,0:05:56.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But at the same time,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.90,0:06:00.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it showed that you couldn't\Nreally go beyond that,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.80,0:06:03.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was a very useful thing \Nto realize.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.63,0:06:08.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember on the day\Nwe got to the key result
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.24,0:06:13.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I was thinking,\N"Wow, this is as good as it gets.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.22,0:06:16.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here we actually have\Nan insight, but it clearly..."
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.50,0:06:19.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- And we had to sell it \Nat some point.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.48,0:06:21.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,For quite a few years, \Nwe had to sell it,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.48,0:06:24.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's proven to be quite useful.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.50,0:06:28.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't think we understood that\Nit would be so useful at the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.76,0:06:29.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- No.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.17,0:06:34.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I did feel early on\Nthis was a substantial insight.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.60,0:06:36.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] Yeah, we'd done something.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.44,0:06:40.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- But I did not think \Ngoals were there.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.70,0:06:42.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- I don't think we were aiming \Nfor the Nobel.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.60,0:06:43.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:06:43.73,0:06:46.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were very happy to get\Nthat note in Econometrica.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.86,0:06:48.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.77,0:06:51.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Isaiah] Are there factors \Nor are ways of approaching problems
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.56,0:06:54.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that lead people to be better \Nat recognizing the good stuff
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.19,0:06:56.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and taking the time to do it \Nas opposed to dismissing it?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.60,0:06:57.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Josh] Sometimes \NI think it's helpful.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.83,0:06:59.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you're trying\Nto convince somebody
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.48,0:07:01.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that you have something \Nuseful to say
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.90,0:07:04.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and maybe they don't \Nspeak your language,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:04.89,0:07:06.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you might need \Nto learn their language.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.76,0:07:07.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Yes, yes, exactly.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:07.91,0:07:11.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- That's what we did with Don,\Nwe figured out how to --
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.74,0:07:14.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember we had a very hard time
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.05,0:07:16.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,explaining the exclusion\Nrestriction to Don,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.43,0:07:18.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe rightfully so.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.80,0:07:21.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think Guido and I \Neventually figured out
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.95,0:07:24.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it wasn't formulated \Nvery clearly,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.40,0:07:27.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we came up \Nwith a way to do that
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.45,0:07:29.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the potential outcomes framework
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.32,0:07:32.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I think worked\Nfor the three of us.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.22,0:07:33.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Guido] Yeah.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:33.42,0:07:35.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, it worked\Nfor the bigger literature,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.45,0:07:37.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but I think what you're saying \Nthere is exactly right.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.64,0:07:40.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You need to figure out \Nhow not just say,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.86,0:07:43.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Okay, I've got this language,\Nand this works great,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.89,0:07:45.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I've got to convince\Nsomeone else to use the language."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.90,0:07:48.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You could first figure out \Nwhat language they're using,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.68,0:07:51.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then, only then, \Ncan you try to say,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.03,0:07:53.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Well, but here you're thinking\Nof it this way."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.14,0:07:56.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that's actually \Na pretty hard thing to do.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.88,0:07:59.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You get someone\Nfrom a different discipline,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.10,0:08:02.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,convincing them, two junior faculty\Nin a different department
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.40,0:08:04.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,actually have something \Nto say to you --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.60,0:08:06.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that takes a fair amount of effort.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.50,0:08:09.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Yeah, I wrote Don \Na number of times,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.42,0:08:11.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in fairly long letters.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.87,0:08:13.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I remember thinking \Nthis is worth doing,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.60,0:08:16.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that if I could convince Don,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.78,0:08:19.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that would validate\Nthe framework to some extent.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:20.30,0:08:22.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- I think both you and Don
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.52,0:08:25.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were a little bit more confident \Nthat you were right.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:25.00,0:08:26.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Well, we used to argue a lot,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.44,0:08:28.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you would sometimes \Nreferee those.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.32,0:08:29.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.80,0:08:30.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That was fun.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.76,0:08:34.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It wasn't hurtful.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.20,0:08:37.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- I remember it getting \Na little testy once.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:37.94,0:08:39.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We had lunch in The Faculty Club,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.60,0:08:44.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we were talking about \Nthe draft lottery paper.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.93,0:08:47.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We were talking about "never takes"
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.43,0:08:49.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as people wouldn't serve\Nin the military
Dialogue: 0,0:08:49.76,0:08:53.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,irrespective of whether\Nthey were getting drafted,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.50,0:08:56.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you or Don said something
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.94,0:08:58.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about shooting yourself\Nin the foot...
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.80,0:08:59.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.80,0:09:01.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,...as a way of getting out\Nof the military
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.53,0:09:03.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that maybe \Nthe exclusion restriction
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.23,0:09:05.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for "never takes" wasn't working.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.30,0:09:08.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And then the other one was going,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.52,0:09:09.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Well, yes, you could do that,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.79,0:09:12.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but why would you want \Nto shoot yourself in the foot?"
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.01,0:09:13.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.22,0:09:15.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It got a little there...
Dialogue: 0,0:09:15.40,0:09:17.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- I usually go for moving\Nto Canada for my example,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.69,0:09:20.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when I'm teaching that.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.10,0:09:21.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,[laughter]
Dialogue: 0,0:09:22.03,0:09:23.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- But things are tricky.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.86,0:09:26.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I get students coming\Nfrom Computer Science,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.60,0:09:29.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they want to do things \Non causal inference,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:30.19,0:09:33.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it takes a huge amount \Nof effort to figure out
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.46,0:09:35.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how they're actually thinking \Nabout a problem
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.23,0:09:37.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and whether\Nthere's something there.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.00,0:09:38.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so, now, over the years,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.31,0:09:39.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I've got a little more appreciation
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.72,0:09:41.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for the fact that Don\Nwas actually willing to --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.63,0:09:46.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It took him a while, \Nbut he did engage first with Josh
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.40,0:09:47.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and then with both of us,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.67,0:09:50.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,rather than dismissing and saying,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:50.24,0:09:53.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Okay, well, I can't figure out\Nwhat these guys are doing,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.35,0:09:56.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's probably just \Nnot really that interesting."
Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.20,0:09:59.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Everybody always wants \Nto figure out quickly.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.20,0:10:01.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You want to save time,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.38,0:10:03.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and you want to save \Nyour brain cells
Dialogue: 0,0:10:03.41,0:10:04.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for other things.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.00,0:10:07.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The fastest route to that\Nis to figure out
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.00,0:10:08.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why you should dismiss something.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.46,0:10:09.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- Yes.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:09.56,0:10:11.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- I don't need\Nto spend time on this.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:11.10,0:10:12.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.50,0:10:15.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,- [Narrator] If you'd like \Nto watch more Nobel Conversations,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.14,0:10:16.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,click here.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.21,0:10:18.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Or if you'd like to learn\Nmore about econometrics,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:18.64,0:10:21.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,check out Josh's\NMastering Econometrics series.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.80,0:10:24.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you'd like to learn more\Nabout Guido, Josh, and Isaiah,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.86,0:10:26.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,check out the links \Nin the description.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.99,0:10:28.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,♪ [music] ♪