9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 - [Christina] The most important thing[br]that I try to pass on 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 is the sense that economics[br]is an empirical field, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 then if you get[br]new empirical evidence, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 you're going to have[br]to change the way 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 you think about the economy. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I think being open to that 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 is the most important thing[br]for a young economist to know. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Economists -- not a group 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 with a lot of Marys,[br]Natashas or Juanitas, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and that's caused[br]a lot of controversy. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 However, what's often overlooked[br]are the actual female economists 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 who are pushing economics forward 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 by addressing real-world issues. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Welcome to Women in Economics. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 ♪ [music] ♪ 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I grew up in a family 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 where public policy[br]was discussed a lot. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I was planning to be a lawyer, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 so I was going to major[br]in Government. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And as part of the Government[br]major at my college, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 you had to take[br]a year of Economics. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I was about three weeks in,[br]and I was hooked, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 like the government major's gone,[br]the lawyer's gone, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I was in an Economist. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Christina Romer[br]is a macro economic historian. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 She takes the tools[br]of modern economics, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 statistics, and data 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and applies them[br]to historical questions. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 - [Narrator] Christy's researcher[br]agenda throughout her career 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 has focused[br]on a course set of topics 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 about economic fluctuations[br]and business cycles. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 She's been asking and answering 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 fascinating questions[br]about our economy, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 starting with her dissertation[br]as a graduate student at MIT. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 There, she changed[br]her understanding 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 of how the economy[br]has grown over time. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I think the questions[br]that came to me 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 were about monetary policy[br]and business cycles 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and the Great Depression. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 - [Narrator] It was widely believed 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that government policies led to[br]less fluctuations and unemployment 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 after World War II. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 However, the data before[br]World War II was unreliable. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 - [Nancy] But Christy came up[br]with the ingenious insight 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that while you couldn't clean up[br]the historical data, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 you could fuzzy up[br]the more modern data, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and that's exactly what she did. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And when she did it, lo and behold, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 all these differences[br]basically collapsed. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 - [Narrator] Amazingly,[br]if she applied 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the old techniques to the new data, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the pose WOrld War II economy 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 looked just as volatile[br]as the pre-World War economy. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 This contradicted the consensus 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 on the role of government[br]stabilization policies. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Her research rattled[br]the economic community. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 It made a splash. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 I remember one of the prominent[br]economist MIT, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 his first reaction was, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 "Well, I'd be very upset[br]about this if I believed it. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 So I'm not going to believe it." 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Throughout her academic career, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Christine continued to challenge 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 her understanding[br]of the Great Depression. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 As just one example,[br]most economists believed 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the Great Depression ended 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 because of higher[br]government spending 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and investment in public works. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 She showed that the impact[br]of those policies 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 were relatively small compared to 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 the monetary policy[br]changes taking place. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 - [ ] Starting as soon as Roosevelt[br]took the US off the gold standard 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 when he took office in 1933, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 over the next decade, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 there's just an enormous increase[br]in money supply. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 What he showed was that 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 that is what caused[br]the very rapid growth that we had. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 - [Narrator] Christina's research[br]has often focused on the effect 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 economic events have[br]on people's everyday lives. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 - [ ] It's tough to manage to have[br]new ideas on the same thing 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 again and again and again. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 One of the remarkable things 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 about Christy and David's[br]research program 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 is that they have done that[br]very successfully. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 - [Narrator] Over 35 years, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Christina has done[br]meticulous research, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 frequently, with her collaborator[br]and husband, David Romer. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 - [David] We'll have her paper,[br]and I think it's almost done. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 We've worked really hard on it, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and each do one last read. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 She says, "You know,[br]I think there's a logical tension 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 between where we end up[br]in Section 4b 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and how we set out[br]what we're going to do in Section 2a. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And I'm thinking, "Oh,[br]no one's going to notice." 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And we spend weeks more[br]on the paper because she's right. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 And the paper gets much better. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 - [ ] One of the remarkable[br]things about her work 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 is the coherence that spans[br]literally her graduate school days 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and her work on her dissertation, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and connects up to some[br]of her most recent work 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 on thinking about[br]ways of identifying 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 turning points in the economy. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 - [Narrator] Christina's work[br]would be put to the test 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 during the devasting crash of 2008, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 when the US economy[br]was in free fall. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 - [Christina] We often[br]describe the economy 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 as at the edge of a cliff. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Well, the truth is, we're not only[br]at the edge of a cliff, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 we were headed down. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Financial markets were plunging, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 and the risk of contagion[br]from the US to the global economy 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 was v ery real. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 - [ ] Even people who'd see a lot 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 were really worried[br]about what was happening. 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 Just as the nation was turning[br]to President-elect Obama 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 to confront the economic crisis, 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 a mysterious email[br]showed up in Christina'a inbox 9:59:59.000,9:59:59.000 with the subject line:[br]"Obama Transition."