WEBVTT 00:00:00.000 --> 00:00:18.721 34C3 preroll music 00:00:18.721 --> 00:00:24.996 Herald: Humans of Congress, it is my pleasure to announce the next speaker. 00:00:24.996 --> 00:00:31.749 I was supposed to pick out a few awards or something, to actually present what he's 00:00:31.750 --> 00:00:36.419 done in his life, but I can only say: he's one of us! 00:00:36.419 --> 00:00:40.149 applause 00:00:40.149 --> 00:00:43.279 Charles Stross! ongoing applause 00:00:43.279 --> 00:00:45.969 Charles Stross: Hi! Is this on? Good. Great. 00:00:45.969 --> 00:00:50.679 I'm really pleased to be here and I want to start by apologizing for my total 00:00:50.679 --> 00:00:57.629 lack of German. So this talk is gonna be in English. Good morning. I'm Charlie Stross 00:00:57.629 --> 00:01:03.559 and it's my job to tell lies for money, or rather, I write science fiction, much of 00:01:03.559 --> 00:01:07.860 it about on the future, which in recent years has become ridiculously hard to 00:01:07.860 --> 00:01:16.090 predict. In this talk I'm going to talk about why. Now our species, Homo sapiens 00:01:16.090 --> 00:01:21.990 sapiens, is about 300,000 years old. It used to be about 200,000 years old, 00:01:21.990 --> 00:01:26.189 but it grew an extra 100,000 years in the past year because of new 00:01:26.189 --> 00:01:31.329 archaeological discoveries, I mean, go figure. For all but the last three 00:01:31.329 --> 00:01:36.759 centuries or so - of that span, however - predicting the future was really easy. If 00:01:36.759 --> 00:01:41.369 you were an average person - as opposed to maybe a king or a pope - natural disasters 00:01:41.369 --> 00:01:46.690 aside, everyday life 50 years in the future would resemble everyday life 50 00:01:46.690 --> 00:01:56.089 years in your past. Let that sink in for a bit. For 99.9% of human existence on this 00:01:56.089 --> 00:02:01.929 earth, the future was static. Then something changed and the future began to 00:02:01.929 --> 00:02:06.600 shift increasingly rapidly, until, in the present day, things are moving so fast, 00:02:06.600 --> 00:02:13.440 it's barely possible to anticipate trends from one month to the next. Now as an 00:02:13.440 --> 00:02:17.830 eminent computer scientist, Edsger Dijkstra once remarked, computer science is no more 00:02:17.830 --> 00:02:23.620 about computers than astronomy is about building big telescopes, the same can be 00:02:23.620 --> 00:02:28.760 said of my field of work, writing science fiction, sci-fi is rarely about science 00:02:28.760 --> 00:02:33.690 and even more rarely about predicting the future, but sometimes we dabble in 00:02:33.690 --> 00:02:42.140 Futurism and lately, Futurism has gotten really, really, weird. Now when I write a 00:02:42.140 --> 00:02:47.230 near future work of fiction, one set, say, a decade hence, there used to be a recipe I 00:02:47.230 --> 00:02:53.770 could follow, that worked eerily well. Simply put: 90% of the next decade stuff is 00:02:53.770 --> 00:02:57.420 already here around us today. Buildings are designed to 00:02:57.420 --> 00:03:03.040 last many years, automobiles have a design life of about a decade, so half the cars on 00:03:03.040 --> 00:03:10.240 the road in 2027 are already there now - they're new. People? There'll be some new 00:03:10.240 --> 00:03:15.520 faces, aged 10 and under, and some older people will have died, but most of us 00:03:15.520 --> 00:03:22.840 adults will still be around, albeit older and grayer, this is the 90% of a near 00:03:22.840 --> 00:03:30.820 future that's already here today. After the already existing 90%, another 9% of a 00:03:30.820 --> 00:03:35.650 near future a decade hence used to be easily predictable: you look at trends 00:03:35.650 --> 00:03:39.970 dictated by physical limits, such as Moore's law and you look at Intel's road 00:03:39.970 --> 00:03:44.000 map and you use a bit of creative extrapolation and you won't go too far 00:03:44.000 --> 00:03:52.510 wrong. If I predict - wearing my futurology hat - that in 2027 LTE cellular phones will 00:03:52.510 --> 00:03:57.560 be ubiquitous, 5G will be available for high bandwidth applications and there will be 00:03:57.560 --> 00:04:01.790 fallback to some kind of satellite data service at a price, you probably won't 00:04:01.790 --> 00:04:04.330 laugh at me. I mean, it's not like I'm predicting that 00:04:04.330 --> 00:04:08.110 airlines will fly slower and Nazis will take over the United States, is it ? 00:04:08.110 --> 00:04:09.900 laughing 00:04:09.900 --> 00:04:15.210 And therein lies the problem. There is remaining 1% of what Donald Rumsfeld NOTE Paragraph 00:04:15.210 --> 00:04:20.940 called the "unknown unknowns", what throws off all predictions. As it happens, airliners NOTE Paragraph 00:04:20.940 --> 00:04:26.060 today are slower than they were in the 1970s and don't get me started about the Nazis, NOTE Paragraph 00:04:26.060 --> 00:04:31.860 I mean, nobody in 2007 was expecting a Nazi revival in 2017, were they? 00:04:31.860 --> 00:04:37.320 Only this time, Germans get to be the good guys. laughing, applause 00:04:37.320 --> 00:04:42.260 So. My recipe for fiction set 10 years in the future used to be: 00:04:42.260 --> 00:04:47.360 "90% is already here, 9% is not here yet but predictable 00:04:47.360 --> 00:04:53.730 and 1% is 'who ordered that?'" But unfortunately the ratios have changed, I think we're now 00:04:53.730 --> 00:04:59.660 down to maybe 80% already here - climate change takes a huge toll on architecture - 00:04:59.660 --> 00:05:05.760 then 15% not here yet, but predictable and a whopping 5% of utterly unpredictable 00:05:05.760 --> 00:05:12.740 deep craziness. Now... before I carry on with this talk, I want to spend a minute or 00:05:12.740 --> 00:05:18.530 two ranting loudly and ruling out the singularity. Some of you might assume, that 00:05:18.530 --> 00:05:23.590 as the author of books like "Singularity Sky" and "Accelerando", 00:05:23.590 --> 00:05:28.220 I expect an impending technological singularity, 00:05:28.220 --> 00:05:32.090 that we will develop self-improving artificial intelligence and mind uploading 00:05:32.090 --> 00:05:35.410 and the whole wish list of transhumanist aspirations promoted by the likes of 00:05:35.410 --> 00:05:42.300 Ray Kurzweil, will come to pass. Unfortunately this isn't the case. I think transhumanism 00:05:42.300 --> 00:05:49.050 is a warmed-over Christian heresy. While its adherents tend to be outspoken atheists, 00:05:49.050 --> 00:05:51.910 they can't quite escape from the history that gave rise to our current 00:05:51.910 --> 00:05:57.220 Western civilization. Many of you are familiar with design patterns, an approach 00:05:57.220 --> 00:06:01.560 to software engineering that focuses on abstraction and simplification, in order 00:06:01.560 --> 00:06:07.730 to promote reusable code. When you look at the AI singularity as a narrative and 00:06:07.730 --> 00:06:11.790 identify the numerous places in their story where the phrase "and then a miracle 00:06:11.790 --> 00:06:18.790 happens" occur, it becomes apparent pretty quickly, that they've reinvented Christiantiy. 00:06:18.790 --> 00:06:19.460 applause 00:06:19.460 --> 00:06:25.330 Indeed, the wellspring of today's transhumanists draw in a long rich 00:06:25.330 --> 00:06:29.990 history of Russian philosophy, exemplified by the russian orthodox theologian Nikolai 00:06:29.990 --> 00:06:37.169 Fyodorovich Fedorov by way of his disciple Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, whose derivation 00:06:37.169 --> 00:06:40.520 of a rocket equation makes him essentially the father of modern space 00:06:40.520 --> 00:06:45.350 flight. Once you start probing the nether regions of transhumanist forth and run 00:06:45.350 --> 00:06:49.800 into concepts like Roko's Basilisk - by the way, any of you who didn't know about the 00:06:49.800 --> 00:06:54.120 Basilisk before, are now doomed to an eternity in AI hell, terribly sorry - you 00:06:54.120 --> 00:06:57.889 realize, they've mangled it to match some of the nastier aspects of Presbyterian 00:06:57.889 --> 00:07:03.189 Protestantism. Now they basically invented original sin and Satan in the guise of an 00:07:03.189 --> 00:07:09.270 AI that doesn't exist yet ,it's.. kind of peculiar. Anyway, my take on the 00:07:09.270 --> 00:07:12.949 singularity is: What if something walks like a duck and quacks like a duck? It's 00:07:12.949 --> 00:07:18.460 probably a duck. And if it looks like a religion, it's probably a religion. 00:07:18.460 --> 00:07:23.280 I don't see much evidence for human-like, self-directed artificial intelligences 00:07:23.280 --> 00:07:28.070 coming along any time soon, and a fair bit of evidence, that nobody accepts and freaks 00:07:28.070 --> 00:07:32.150 in cognitive science departments, even want it. I mean, if we invented an AI 00:07:32.150 --> 00:07:35.940 that was like a human mind, it would do the AI equivalent of sitting on the sofa, 00:07:35.940 --> 00:07:39.455 munching popcorn and watching the Super Bowl all day. 00:07:39.455 --> 00:07:43.261 It wouldn't be much use to us. laughter, applause 00:07:43.261 --> 00:07:46.776 What we're getting instead, is self-optimizing tools that defy 00:07:46.776 --> 00:07:51.220 human comprehension, but are not in fact any more like our kind 00:07:51.220 --> 00:07:57.500 of intelligence than a Boeing 737 is like a seagull. Boeing 737s and seagulls both 00:07:57.500 --> 00:08:04.240 fly, Boeing 737s don't lay eggs and shit everywhere. So I'm going to wash my hands 00:08:04.240 --> 00:08:09.590 of a singularity as a useful explanatory model of the future without further ado. 00:08:09.590 --> 00:08:14.670 I'm one of those vehement atheists as well and I'm gonna try and offer you a better 00:08:14.670 --> 00:08:20.960 model for what's happening to us. Now, as my fellow Scottish science fictional author 00:08:20.960 --> 00:08:27.130 Ken MacLeod likes to say "the secret weapon of science fiction is history". 00:08:27.130 --> 00:08:31.229 History is, loosely speaking, is the written record of what and how people did things 00:08:31.229 --> 00:08:36.528 in past times. Times that have slipped out of our personal memories. We science 00:08:36.528 --> 00:08:41.099 fiction writers tend to treat history as a giant toy chest to raid, whenever we feel 00:08:41.099 --> 00:08:45.389 like telling a story. With a little bit of history, it's really easy to whip up an 00:08:45.389 --> 00:08:49.019 entertaining yarn about a galactic empire that mirrors the development and decline 00:08:49.019 --> 00:08:53.529 of a Habsburg Empire or to respin the October Revolution as a tale of how Mars 00:08:53.529 --> 00:08:59.599 got its independence. But history is useful for so much more than that. 00:08:59.599 --> 00:09:05.380 It turns out, that our personal memories don't span very much time at all. I'm 53 00:09:05.380 --> 00:09:10.800 and I barely remember the 1960s. I only remember the 1970s with the eyes of a 6 to 00:09:10.800 --> 00:09:17.580 16 year old. My father died this year, aged 93, and he'd just about remembered the 00:09:17.580 --> 00:09:22.770 1930s. Only those of my father's generation directly remember the Great 00:09:22.780 --> 00:09:29.079 Depression and can compare it to the 2007/08 global financial crisis directly. 00:09:29.079 --> 00:09:34.250 We Westerners tend to pay little attention to cautionary tales told by 90-somethings. 00:09:34.250 --> 00:09:38.999 We're modern, we're change obsessed and we tend to repeat our biggest social mistakes 00:09:38.999 --> 00:09:43.259 just as they slip out of living memory, which means they recur on a timescale of 00:09:43.259 --> 00:09:47.680 70 to 100 years. So if our personal memories are useless, 00:09:47.680 --> 00:09:52.330 we need a better toolkit and history provides that toolkit. 00:09:52.330 --> 00:09:57.099 History gives us the perspective to see what went wrong in the past and to look for 00:09:57.099 --> 00:10:01.509 patterns and check to see whether those patterns are recurring in the present. 00:10:01.509 --> 00:10:06.689 Looking in particular at the history of the past two to four hundred years, that age of rapidly 00:10:06.689 --> 00:10:11.800 increasing change that I mentioned at the beginning. One glaringly obvious deviation 00:10:11.800 --> 00:10:16.929 from the norm of the preceding 3000 centuries is obvious, and that's 00:10:16.929 --> 00:10:22.059 the development of artificial intelligence, which happened no earlier than 1553 and no 00:10:22.059 --> 00:10:29.359 later than 1844. I'm talking of course about the very old, very slow AI's we call 00:10:29.359 --> 00:10:34.240 corporations. What lessons from the history of a company can we draw that tell us 00:10:34.240 --> 00:10:38.490 about the likely behavior of the type of artificial intelligence we're interested 00:10:38.490 --> 00:10:47.258 in here, today? Well. Need a mouthful of water. 00:10:47.258 --> 00:10:51.618 Let me crib from Wikipedia for a moment. 00:10:51.618 --> 00:10:56.329 Wikipedia: "In the late 18th century, Stewart Kyd, the author of the 00:10:56.329 --> 00:11:02.800 first treatise on corporate law in English, defined a corporation as: 'a collection of 00:11:02.800 --> 00:11:08.290 many individuals united into one body, under a special denomination, having 00:11:08.290 --> 00:11:13.779 perpetual succession under an artificial form, and vested, by policy of the law, with 00:11:13.779 --> 00:11:20.201 the capacity of acting, in several respects, as an individual, enjoying privileges and 00:11:20.201 --> 00:11:24.151 immunities in common, and of exercising a variety of political rights, more or less 00:11:24.151 --> 00:11:28.510 extensive, according to the design of its institution, or the powers conferred upon 00:11:28.510 --> 00:11:32.269 it, either at the time of its creation, or at any subsequent period of its 00:11:32.269 --> 00:11:36.699 existence.'" This was a late 18th century definition, 00:11:36.699 --> 00:11:42.509 sound like a piece of software to you? In 1844, the British government passed the 00:11:42.509 --> 00:11:46.450 "Joint Stock Companies Act" which created a register of companies and allowed any 00:11:46.450 --> 00:11:51.360 legal person, for a fee, to register a company which in turn existed as a 00:11:51.360 --> 00:11:55.869 separate legal person. Prior to that point, it required a Royal Charter or an act of 00:11:55.869 --> 00:12:00.420 Parliament to create a company. Subsequently, the law was extended to limit 00:12:00.420 --> 00:12:04.680 the liability of individual shareholders in event of business failure and then both 00:12:04.680 --> 00:12:08.629 Germany and the United States added their own unique twists to what today we see is 00:12:08.629 --> 00:12:14.360 the doctrine of corporate personhood. Now, though plenty of other things that 00:12:14.360 --> 00:12:18.740 happened between the 16th and 21st centuries did change the shape of the world we live in. 00:12:18.740 --> 00:12:22.149 I've skipped the changes in agricultural productivity that happened 00:12:22.149 --> 00:12:25.550 due to energy economics, which finally broke the Malthusian trap 00:12:25.550 --> 00:12:29.129 our predecessors lived in. This in turn broke the long-term 00:12:29.129 --> 00:12:32.681 cap on economic growth of about 0.1% per year 00:12:32.681 --> 00:12:35.681 in the absence of famines, plagues and wars and so on. 00:12:35.681 --> 00:12:38.790 I've skipped the germ theory of diseases and the development of trade empires 00:12:38.790 --> 00:12:42.760 in the age of sail and gunpowder, that were made possible by advances 00:12:42.760 --> 00:12:45.119 in accurate time measurement. 00:12:45.119 --> 00:12:49.079 I've skipped the rise, and hopefully decline, of the pernicious 00:12:49.079 --> 00:12:52.430 theory of scientific racism that underpinned Western colonialism and the 00:12:52.430 --> 00:12:57.220 slave trade. I've skipped the rise of feminism, the ideological position that 00:12:57.220 --> 00:13:02.470 women are human beings rather than property and the decline of patriarchy. 00:13:02.470 --> 00:13:05.999 I've skipped the whole of the Enlightenment and the Age of Revolutions, 00:13:05.999 --> 00:13:09.410 but this is a technocratic.. technocentric Congress, so I want to frame this talk in 00:13:09.410 --> 00:13:14.869 terms of AI, which we all like to think we understand. Here's the thing about these 00:13:14.869 --> 00:13:21.050 artificial persons we call corporations. Legally, they're people. They have goals, 00:13:21.050 --> 00:13:25.957 they operate in pursuit of these goals, they have a natural life cycle. 00:13:25.957 --> 00:13:33.230 In the 1950s, a typical U.S. corporation on the S&P 500 Index had a life span of 60 years. 00:13:33.230 --> 00:13:37.805 Today it's down to less than 20 years. This is largely due to predation. 00:13:37.805 --> 00:13:41.659 Corporations are cannibals, they eat one another. 00:13:41.659 --> 00:13:45.849 They're also hive super organisms like bees or ants. 00:13:45.849 --> 00:13:48.699 For the first century and a half, they relied entirely on human 00:13:48.699 --> 00:13:52.399 employees for their internal operation, but today they're automating their 00:13:52.399 --> 00:13:57.110 business processes very rapidly. Each human is only retained so long as they can 00:13:57.110 --> 00:14:01.339 perform their assigned tasks more efficiently than a piece of software 00:14:01.339 --> 00:14:05.439 and they can all be replaced by another human, much as the cells in our own bodies NOTE Paragraph 00:14:05.439 --> 00:14:09.799 are functionally interchangeable and a group of cells can - in extremis - often be 00:14:09.799 --> 00:14:14.509 replaced by a prosthetic device. To some extent, corporations can be 00:14:14.509 --> 00:14:19.019 trained to serve of the personal desires of their chief executives, but even CEOs can 00:14:19.019 --> 00:14:22.749 be dispensed with, if their activities damage the corporation, as Harvey 00:14:22.749 --> 00:14:26.389 Weinstein found out a couple of months ago. 00:14:26.389 --> 00:14:30.939 Finally, our legal environment today has been tailored for the convenience of 00:14:30.939 --> 00:14:34.910 corporate persons, rather than human persons, to the point where our governments 00:14:34.910 --> 00:14:40.379 now mimic corporations in many of our internal structures. 00:14:40.379 --> 00:14:43.940 So, to understand where we're going, we need to start by asking "What do our 00:14:43.940 --> 00:14:51.850 current actually existing AI overlords want?" 00:14:51.850 --> 00:14:56.400 Now, Elon Musk, who I believe you've all heard of, has an obsessive fear of one 00:14:56.400 --> 00:14:59.750 particular hazard of artificial intelligence, which he conceives of as 00:14:59.750 --> 00:15:03.760 being a piece of software that functions like a brain in a box, namely the 00:15:03.760 --> 00:15:09.859 Paperclip Optimizer or Maximizer. A Paperclip Maximizer is a term of art for 00:15:09.859 --> 00:15:14.519 a goal seeking AI that has a single priority, e.g., maximizing the 00:15:14.519 --> 00:15:19.759 number of paperclips in the universe. The Paperclip Maximizer is able to improve 00:15:19.759 --> 00:15:24.110 itself in pursuit of its goal, but has no ability to vary its goal, so will 00:15:24.124 --> 00:15:27.604 ultimately attempt to convert all the metallic elements in the solar system into 00:15:27.604 --> 00:15:31.749 paperclips, even if this is obviously detrimental to the well-being of the 00:15:31.749 --> 00:15:36.359 humans who set it this goal. Unfortunately I don't think Musk 00:15:36.359 --> 00:15:41.169 is paying enough attention, consider his own companies. 00:15:41.169 --> 00:15:45.480 Tesla isn't a Paperclip Maximizer, it's a battery Maximizer. 00:15:45.480 --> 00:15:48.240 After all, a battery.. an electric car is a battery with wheels and 00:15:48.240 --> 00:15:54.199 seats. SpaceX is an orbital payload Maximizer, driving down the cost of space 00:15:54.199 --> 00:15:59.424 launches in order to encourage more sales for the service it provides. SolarCity is 00:15:59.424 --> 00:16:05.700 a photovoltaic panel maximizer and so on. All three of the.. Musk's very own slow AIs 00:16:05.700 --> 00:16:09.259 are based on an architecture, designed to maximize return on shareholder 00:16:09.259 --> 00:16:13.180 investment, even if by doing so they cook the planet the shareholders have to live 00:16:13.180 --> 00:16:15.979 on or turn the entire thing into solar panels. 00:16:15.979 --> 00:16:19.479 But hey, if you're Elon Musk, thats okay, you're gonna retire on Mars anyway. 00:16:19.479 --> 00:16:20.879 laughing 00:16:20.879 --> 00:16:25.139 By the way, I'm ragging on Musk in this talks, simply because he's the current 00:16:25.139 --> 00:16:28.600 opinionated tech billionaire, who thinks for disrupting a couple of industries 00:16:28.600 --> 00:16:33.579 entitles him to make headlines. If this was 2007 and my focus slightly 00:16:33.579 --> 00:16:39.041 difference.. different, I'd be ragging on Steve Jobs and if we're in 1997 my target 00:16:39.041 --> 00:16:42.259 would be Bill Gates. Don't take it personally, Elon. 00:16:42.259 --> 00:16:44.109 laughing 00:16:44.109 --> 00:16:49.139 Back to topic. The problem of corporations is, that despite their overt 00:16:49.139 --> 00:16:53.959 goals, whether they make electric vehicles or beer or sell life insurance policies, 00:16:53.959 --> 00:16:59.778 they all have a common implicit Paperclip Maximizer goal: to generate revenue. If 00:16:59.778 --> 00:17:03.729 they don't make money, they're eaten by a bigger predator or they go bust. It's as 00:17:03.729 --> 00:17:07.929 vital to them as breathing is to us mammals. They generally pursue their 00:17:07.929 --> 00:17:12.439 implicit goal - maximizing revenue - by pursuing their overt goal. 00:17:12.439 --> 00:17:16.510 But sometimes they try instead to manipulate their environment, to ensure 00:17:16.510 --> 00:17:22.970 that money flows to them regardless. Human toolmaking culture has become very 00:17:22.970 --> 00:17:27.980 complicated over time. New technologies always come with an attached implicit 00:17:27.980 --> 00:17:32.869 political agenda that seeks to extend the use of the technology. Governments react 00:17:32.869 --> 00:17:37.230 to this by legislating to control new technologies and sometimes we end up with 00:17:37.230 --> 00:17:41.630 industries actually indulging in legal duels through the regulatory mechanism of 00:17:41.630 --> 00:17:49.582 law to determine, who prevails. For example, consider the automobile. You 00:17:49.582 --> 00:17:53.910 can't have mass automobile transport without gas stations and fuel distribution 00:17:53.910 --> 00:17:57.160 pipelines. These in turn require access to whoever 00:17:57.160 --> 00:18:01.179 owns the land the oil is extracted from under and before you know it, you end up 00:18:01.179 --> 00:18:06.660 with a permanent army in Iraq and a clamp dictatorship in Saudi Arabia. Closer to 00:18:06.660 --> 00:18:12.380 home, automobiles imply jaywalking laws and drink-driving laws. They affect Town 00:18:12.380 --> 00:18:16.750 Planning regulations and encourage suburban sprawl, the construction of human 00:18:16.750 --> 00:18:21.429 infrastructure on a scale required by automobiles, not pedestrians. 00:18:21.429 --> 00:18:24.979 This in turn is bad for competing transport technologies, like buses or 00:18:24.979 --> 00:18:31.720 trams, which work best in cities with a high population density. So to get laws 00:18:31.720 --> 00:18:35.399 that favour the automobile in place, providing an environment conducive to 00:18:35.399 --> 00:18:40.409 doing business, automobile companies spend money on political lobbyists and when they 00:18:40.409 --> 00:18:46.620 can get away with it, on bribes. Bribery needn't be blatant of course. E.g., 00:18:46.620 --> 00:18:51.929 the reforms of a British railway network in the 1960s dismembered many branch lines 00:18:51.929 --> 00:18:56.408 and coincided with a surge in road building and automobile sales. These 00:18:56.408 --> 00:19:01.138 reforms were orchestrated by Transport Minister Ernest Marples, who was purely a 00:19:01.138 --> 00:19:05.950 politician. The fact that he accumulated a considerable personal fortune during this 00:19:05.950 --> 00:19:10.269 period by buying shares in motorway construction corporations, has nothing to 00:19:10.269 --> 00:19:18.120 do with it. So, no conflict of interest there - now if the automobile in industry 00:19:18.120 --> 00:19:23.230 can't be considered a pure Paperclip Maximizer... sorry, the automobile 00:19:23.230 --> 00:19:27.510 industry in isolation can't be considered a pure Paperclip Maximizer. You have to 00:19:27.510 --> 00:19:31.659 look at it in conjunction with the fossil fuel industries, the road construction 00:19:31.659 --> 00:19:37.809 business, the accident insurance sector and so on. When you do this, you begin to 00:19:37.809 --> 00:19:42.740 see the outline of a paperclip-maximizing ecosystem that invades far-flung lands and 00:19:42.740 --> 00:19:47.167 grinds up and kills around one and a quarter million people per year. That's 00:19:47.167 --> 00:19:50.951 the global death toll from automobile accidents currently, according to the World 00:19:50.951 --> 00:19:56.429 Health Organization. It rivals the First World War on an ongoing permanent basis 00:19:56.429 --> 00:20:01.510 and these are all side effects of its drive to sell you a new car. Now, 00:20:01.510 --> 00:20:06.639 automobiles aren't of course a total liability. Today's cars are regulated 00:20:06.639 --> 00:20:11.302 stringently for safety and, in theory, to reduce toxic emissions. They're fast, 00:20:11.302 --> 00:20:16.990 efficient and comfortable. We can thank legal mandated regulations imposed by 00:20:16.990 --> 00:20:22.029 governments for this, of course. Go back to the 1970s and cars didn't have crumple 00:20:22.029 --> 00:20:27.199 zones, go back to the 50s and they didn't come with seat belts as standard. In the 00:20:27.199 --> 00:20:33.690 1930s, indicators, turn signals and brakes on all four wheels were optional and your 00:20:33.690 --> 00:20:38.850 best hope of surviving a 50 km/h-crash was to be thrown out of a car and land somewhere NOTE Paragraph 00:20:38.850 --> 00:20:43.059 without breaking your neck. Regulator agencies are our current 00:20:43.059 --> 00:20:47.380 political system's tool of choice for preventing Paperclip Maximizers from 00:20:47.380 --> 00:20:55.159 running amok. Unfortunately, regulators don't always work. The first failure mode 00:20:55.159 --> 00:20:59.730 of regulators that you need to be aware of is regulatory capture, where regulatory 00:20:59.730 --> 00:21:05.038 bodies are captured by the industries they control. Ajit Pai, Head of American Federal 00:21:05.038 --> 00:21:09.460 Communications Commission, which just voted to eliminate net neutrality rules in the 00:21:09.460 --> 00:21:14.101 U.S., has worked as Associate General Counsel for Verizon Communications 00:21:14.101 --> 00:21:19.291 Inc, the largest current descendant of the Bell Telephone system's monopoly. After 00:21:19.291 --> 00:21:24.690 the AT&T antitrust lawsuit, the Bell network was broken up into the seven baby 00:21:24.690 --> 00:21:32.279 bells. They've now pretty much reformed and reaggregated and Verizon is the largest current one. 00:21:32.279 --> 00:21:36.099 Why should someone with a transparent interest in a technology corporation end 00:21:36.099 --> 00:21:41.129 up running a regulator that tries to control the industry in question? Well, if 00:21:41.129 --> 00:21:44.919 you're going to regulate a complex technology, you need to recruit regulators 00:21:44.919 --> 00:21:48.580 from people who understand it. Unfortunately, most of those people are 00:21:48.580 --> 00:21:53.520 industry insiders. Ajit Pai is clearly very much aware of how Verizon is 00:21:53.520 --> 00:21:58.450 regulated, very insightful into its operations and wants to do something about 00:21:58.450 --> 00:22:02.509 it - just not necessarily in the public interest. 00:22:02.509 --> 00:22:11.029 applause When regulators end up staffed by people 00:22:11.029 --> 00:22:15.370 drawn from the industries they're supposed to control, they frequently end up working 00:22:15.370 --> 00:22:20.019 with their former office mates, to make it easier to turn a profit, either by raising 00:22:20.019 --> 00:22:24.350 barriers to keep new insurgent companies out or by dismantling safeguards that 00:22:24.350 --> 00:22:31.610 protect the public. Now a second problem is regulatory lag where a technology 00:22:31.610 --> 00:22:35.240 advances so rapidly, that regulations are laughably obsolete by the time they're 00:22:35.240 --> 00:22:40.450 issued. Consider the EU directive requiring cookie notices on websites to 00:22:40.450 --> 00:22:45.709 caution users, that their activities are tracked and their privacy may be violated. 00:22:45.709 --> 00:22:51.419 This would have been a good idea in 1993 or 1996, but unfortunatelly it didn't show up 00:22:51.419 --> 00:22:57.690 until 2011. Fingerprinting and tracking mechanisms have nothing to do with cookies 00:22:57.690 --> 00:23:04.149 and were already widespread by then. Tim Berners-Lee observed in 1995, that five 00:23:04.149 --> 00:23:07.780 years worth of change was happening on the web for every 12 months of real-world 00:23:07.780 --> 00:23:12.389 time. By that yardstick, the cookie law came out nearly a century too late to do 00:23:12.389 --> 00:23:19.269 any good. Again, look at Uber. This month, the European Court of Justice ruled that 00:23:19.269 --> 00:23:24.520 Uber is a taxi service, not a Web App. This is arguably correct - the problem is, Uber 00:23:24.520 --> 00:23:28.970 has spread globally since it was founded eight years ago, subsidizing its drivers to 00:23:28.970 --> 00:23:33.580 put competing private hire firms out of business. Whether this is a net good for 00:23:33.580 --> 00:23:38.659 societys own is debatable. The problem is, a taxi driver can get awfully hungry if she 00:23:38.659 --> 00:23:42.429 has to wait eight years for a court ruling against a predator intent on disrupting 00:23:42.429 --> 00:23:49.549 her business. So, to recap: firstly, we already have Paperclip Maximizers and 00:23:49.549 --> 00:23:54.980 Musk's AI alarmism is curiously mirror blind. Secondly, we have mechanisms for 00:23:54.980 --> 00:23:59.509 keeping Paperclip Maximizers in check, but they don't work very well against AIs that 00:23:59.509 --> 00:24:03.490 deploy the dark arts, especially corruption and bribery and they're even 00:24:03.490 --> 00:24:07.769 worse against true AIs, that evolved too fast for human mediated mechanisms like 00:24:07.769 --> 00:24:13.529 the law to keep up with. Finally, unlike the naive vision of a Paperclip Maximizer 00:24:13.529 --> 00:24:19.190 that maximizes only paperclips, existing AIs have multiple agendas, their overt 00:24:19.190 --> 00:24:24.210 goal, but also profit seeking, expansion into new markets and to accommodate the 00:24:24.210 --> 00:24:27.500 desire of whoever is currently in the driving seat. 00:24:27.500 --> 00:24:30.500 sighs 00:24:30.500 --> 00:24:36.190 Now, this brings me to the next major heading in this dismaying laundry list: 00:24:36.190 --> 00:24:42.560 how it all went wrong. It seems to me that our current political upheavals, the best 00:24:42.560 --> 00:24:49.379 understood, is arising from the capture of post 1917 democratic institutions by 00:24:49.379 --> 00:24:54.811 large-scale AI. Everywhere you look, you see voters protesting angrily against an 00:24:54.811 --> 00:24:58.779 entrenched establishment, that seems determined to ignore the wants and needs 00:24:58.779 --> 00:25:04.330 of their human constituents in favor of those of the machines. The brexit upset 00:25:04.330 --> 00:25:07.130 was largely result of a protest vote against the British political 00:25:07.130 --> 00:25:11.340 establishment, the election of Donald Trump likewise, with a side order of racism 00:25:11.340 --> 00:25:15.940 on top. Our major political parties are led by people who are compatible with the 00:25:15.940 --> 00:25:20.789 system as it exists today, a system that has been shaped over decades by 00:25:20.789 --> 00:25:26.010 corporations distorting our government and regulatory environments. We humans live in 00:25:26.010 --> 00:25:30.700 a world shaped by the desires and needs of AI, forced to live on their terms and we're 00:25:30.700 --> 00:25:34.010 taught, that we're valuable only to the extent we contribute to the rule of the 00:25:34.010 --> 00:25:40.259 machines. Now this is free sea and we're all more interested in computers and 00:25:40.259 --> 00:25:44.389 communications technology than this historical crap. But as I said earlier, 00:25:44.389 --> 00:25:49.149 history is a secret weapon, if you know how to use it. What history is good for, is 00:25:49.149 --> 00:25:53.080 enabling us to spot recurring patterns that repeat across timescales outside our 00:25:53.080 --> 00:25:58.129 personal experience. And if we look at our historical very slow AIs, what do we learn 00:25:58.129 --> 00:26:04.880 from them about modern AI and how it's going to behave? Well to start with, our 00:26:04.880 --> 00:26:09.879 AIs have been warped, the new AIs, the electronic one's instantiated in our 00:26:09.879 --> 00:26:14.639 machines, have been warped by a terrible fundamentally flawed design decision back 00:26:14.639 --> 00:26:20.289 in 1995, but as damaged democratic political processes crippled our ability 00:26:20.289 --> 00:26:24.570 to truly understand the world around us and led to the angry upheavals and upsets 00:26:24.570 --> 00:26:30.440 of our present decade. That mistake was the decision, to fund the build-out of a 00:26:30.440 --> 00:26:34.370 public World Wide Web as opposed to be earlier government-funded corporate and 00:26:34.370 --> 00:26:38.230 academic Internet by monetizing eyeballs through advertising 00:26:38.230 --> 00:26:45.260 revenue. The ad-supported web we're used to today wasn't inevitable. If you recall 00:26:45.260 --> 00:26:49.510 the web as it was in 1994, there were very few ads at all and not much, in a way, of 00:26:49.510 --> 00:26:55.720 Commerce. 1995 was the year, the World Wide Web really came to public attention in the 00:26:55.720 --> 00:27:00.570 anglophone world and consumer-facing websites began to appear. Nobody really 00:27:00.570 --> 00:27:04.490 knew, how this thing was going to be paid for. The original .com bubble was all 00:27:04.490 --> 00:27:07.850 about working out, how to monetize the web for the first time and a lot of people 00:27:07.850 --> 00:27:12.840 lost their shirts in the process. A naive initial assumption was that the 00:27:12.840 --> 00:27:17.440 transaction cost of setting up a tcp/ip connection over modem was too high to 00:27:17.440 --> 00:27:22.500 support.. to be supported by per-use micro billing for web pages. So instead of 00:27:22.500 --> 00:27:27.059 charging people fraction of a euro cent for every page view, we'd bill customers 00:27:27.059 --> 00:27:31.570 indirectly, by shoving advertising banners in front of their eyes and hoping they'd 00:27:31.570 --> 00:27:39.029 click through and buy something. Unfortunately, advertising is in an 00:27:39.029 --> 00:27:45.509 industry, one of those pre-existing very slow AI ecosystems I already alluded to. 00:27:45.509 --> 00:27:49.700 Advertising tries to maximize its hold on the attention of the minds behind each 00:27:49.700 --> 00:27:53.750 human eyeball. The coupling of advertising with web search was an inevitable 00:27:53.750 --> 00:27:57.991 outgrowth, I mean how better to attract the attention of reluctant subjects, than to 00:27:57.991 --> 00:28:01.450 find out what they're really interested in seeing and selling ads that relate to 00:28:01.450 --> 00:28:07.070 those interests. The problem of applying the paperclip maximize approach to 00:28:07.070 --> 00:28:12.509 monopolizing eyeballs, however, is that eyeballs are a limited, scarce resource. 00:28:12.509 --> 00:28:18.500 There are only 168 hours in every week, in which I can gaze at banner ads. Moreover, 00:28:18.500 --> 00:28:22.289 most ads are irrelevant to my interests and it doesn't matter, how often you flash an ad 00:28:22.289 --> 00:28:28.129 for dog biscuits at me, I'm never going to buy any. I have a cat. To make best 00:28:28.129 --> 00:28:31.990 revenue-generating use of our eyeballs, it's necessary for the ad industry to 00:28:31.990 --> 00:28:36.789 learn, who we are and what interests us and to target us increasingly minutely in hope 00:28:36.789 --> 00:28:39.549 of hooking us with stuff we're attracted to. 00:28:39.549 --> 00:28:43.879 In other words: the ad industry is a paperclip maximizer, but for its success, 00:28:43.879 --> 00:28:49.990 it relies on developing a theory of mind that applies to human beings. 00:28:49.990 --> 00:28:52.990 sighs 00:28:52.990 --> 00:28:55.739 Do I need to divert on to the impassioned rant about the hideous corruption 00:28:55.739 --> 00:28:59.759 and evil that is Facebook? Audience: Yes! 00:28:59.759 --> 00:29:03.289 CS: Okay, somebody said yes. I'm guessing you've heard it all before, 00:29:03.289 --> 00:29:07.429 but for too long don't read.. summary is: Facebook is as much a search engine as 00:29:07.429 --> 00:29:12.029 Google or Amazon. Facebook searches are optimized for faces, that is for human 00:29:12.029 --> 00:29:15.649 beings. If you want to find someone you fell out of touch with thirty years ago, 00:29:15.649 --> 00:29:20.610 Facebook probably knows where they live, what their favorite color is, what sized 00:29:20.610 --> 00:29:24.390 shoes they wear and what they said about you to your friends behind your back all 00:29:24.390 --> 00:29:30.090 those years ago, that made you cut them off. Even if you don't have a Facebook account, 00:29:30.090 --> 00:29:34.230 Facebook has a You account, a hole in their social graph of a bunch of connections 00:29:34.230 --> 00:29:38.669 pointing in to it and your name tagged on your friends photographs. They know a lot 00:29:38.669 --> 00:29:42.529 about you and they sell access to their social graph to advertisers, who then 00:29:42.529 --> 00:29:47.400 target you, even if you don't think you use Facebook. Indeed, there is barely any 00:29:47.400 --> 00:29:52.270 point in not using Facebook these days, if ever. Social media Borg: "Resistance is 00:29:52.270 --> 00:30:00.510 futile!" So however, Facebook is trying to get eyeballs on ads, so is Twitter and so 00:30:00.510 --> 00:30:05.970 are Google. To do this, they fine-tuned the content they show you to make it more 00:30:05.970 --> 00:30:11.520 attractive to your eyes and by attractive I do not mean pleasant. We humans have an 00:30:11.520 --> 00:30:15.139 evolved automatic reflex to pay attention to threats and horrors as well as 00:30:15.139 --> 00:30:19.830 pleasurable stimuli and the algorithms, that determine what they show us when we 00:30:19.830 --> 00:30:24.259 look at Facebook or Twitter, take this bias into account. You might react more 00:30:24.259 --> 00:30:28.490 strongly to a public hanging in Iran or an outrageous statement by Donald Trump than 00:30:28.490 --> 00:30:32.100 to a couple kissing. The algorithm knows and will show you whatever makes you pay 00:30:32.100 --> 00:30:38.389 attention, not necessarily what you need or want to see. 00:30:38.389 --> 00:30:42.510 So this brings me to another point about computerized AI as opposed to corporate 00:30:42.510 --> 00:30:47.260 AI. AI algorithms tend to embody the prejudices and beliefs of either the 00:30:47.260 --> 00:30:52.759 programmers, or the data set the AI was trained on. 00:30:52.759 --> 00:30:56.250 A couple of years ago I ran across an account of a webcam, developed by mostly 00:30:56.250 --> 00:31:00.860 pale-skinned Silicon Valley engineers, that had difficulty focusing or achieving correct 00:31:00.860 --> 00:31:04.500 color balance, when pointed at dark-skinned faces. 00:31:04.500 --> 00:31:08.400 Fast an example of human programmer induced bias, they didn't have a wide 00:31:08.400 --> 00:31:13.249 enough test set and didn't recognize that they were inherently biased towards 00:31:13.249 --> 00:31:19.290 expecting people to have pale skin. But with today's deep learning, bias can creep 00:31:19.290 --> 00:31:24.009 in, while the datasets for neural networks are trained on, even without the programmers 00:31:24.009 --> 00:31:28.659 intending it. Microsoft's first foray into a conversational chat bot driven by 00:31:28.659 --> 00:31:33.330 machine learning, Tay, was what we yanked offline within days last year, because 00:31:33.330 --> 00:31:37.149 4chan and reddit based trolls discovered, that they could train it towards racism and 00:31:37.149 --> 00:31:43.649 sexism for shits and giggles. Just imagine you're a poor naive innocent AI who's just 00:31:43.649 --> 00:31:48.480 been switched on and you're hoping to pass your Turing test and what happens? 4chan 00:31:48.480 --> 00:31:53.189 decide to play with your head. laughing 00:31:53.189 --> 00:31:57.519 I got to feel sorry for Tay. Now, humans may be biased, 00:31:57.519 --> 00:32:01.059 but at least individually we're accountable and if somebody gives you 00:32:01.059 --> 00:32:06.499 racist or sexist abuse to your face, you can complain or maybe punch them. It's 00:32:06.499 --> 00:32:10.740 impossible to punch a corporation and it may not even be possible to identify the 00:32:10.740 --> 00:32:16.029 source of unfair bias, when you're dealing with a machine learning system. AI based 00:32:16.029 --> 00:32:21.739 systems that instantiate existing prejudices make social change harder. 00:32:21.739 --> 00:32:25.470 Traditional advertising works by playing on the target customer's insecurity and 00:32:25.470 --> 00:32:30.750 fear as much as their aspirations. And fear of a loss of social status and privileges 00:32:30.750 --> 00:32:36.240 are powerful stress. Fear and xenophobia are useful tools for tracking advertising.. 00:32:36.240 --> 00:32:39.580 ah, eyeballs. What happens when we get pervasive social 00:32:39.580 --> 00:32:44.379 networks, that have learned biases against say Feminism or Islam or melanin? Or deep 00:32:44.379 --> 00:32:48.230 learning systems, trained on datasets contaminated by racist dipshits and their 00:32:48.230 --> 00:32:53.369 propaganda? Deep learning systems like the ones inside Facebook, that determine which 00:32:53.369 --> 00:32:58.210 stories to show you to get you to pay as much attention as possible to be adverse. 00:32:58.210 --> 00:33:04.841 I think, you probably have an inkling of how.. where this is now going. Now, if you 00:33:04.841 --> 00:33:08.990 think, this is sounding a bit bleak and unpleasant, you'd be right. I write sci-fi. 00:33:08.990 --> 00:33:12.669 You read or watch or play sci-fi. We're acculturated to think of science and 00:33:12.669 --> 00:33:19.420 technology as good things that make life better, but this ain't always so. Plenty of 00:33:19.420 --> 00:33:23.140 technologies have historically been heavily regulated or even criminalized for 00:33:23.140 --> 00:33:27.690 good reason and once you get past any reflexive indignation, criticism of 00:33:27.690 --> 00:33:32.740 technology and progress, you might agree with me, that it is reasonable to ban 00:33:32.740 --> 00:33:39.139 individuals from owning nuclear weapons or nerve gas. Less obviously, they may not be 00:33:39.139 --> 00:33:42.820 weapons, but we've banned chlorofluorocarbon refrigerants, because 00:33:42.820 --> 00:33:45.570 they were building up in the high stratosphere and destroying the ozone 00:33:45.570 --> 00:33:51.360 layer that protects us from UVB radiation. We banned tetra e-file LED in 00:33:51.360 --> 00:33:57.540 gasoline, because it poisoned people and led to a crime wave. These are not 00:33:57.540 --> 00:34:03.240 weaponized technologies, but they have horrible side effects. Now, nerve gas and 00:34:03.240 --> 00:34:08.690 leaded gasoline were 1930s chemical technologies, promoted by 1930s 00:34:08.690 --> 00:34:15.390 corporations. Halogenated refrigerants and nuclear weapons are totally 1940s. ICBMs 00:34:15.390 --> 00:34:19.210 date to the 1950s. You know, I have difficulty seeing why people are getting 00:34:19.210 --> 00:34:26.040 so worked up over North Korea. North Korea reaches 1953 level parity - be terrified 00:34:26.040 --> 00:34:30.760 and hide under the bed! I submit that the 21st century is throwing 00:34:30.760 --> 00:34:35.030 up dangerous new technologies, just as our existing strategies for regulating very 00:34:35.030 --> 00:34:42.060 slow AIs have proven to be inadequate. And I don't have an answer to how we regulate 00:34:42.060 --> 00:34:45.889 new technologies, I just want to flag it up as a huge social problem that is going to 00:34:45.889 --> 00:34:50.380 affect the coming century. I'm now going to give you four examples of 00:34:50.380 --> 00:34:54.290 new types of AI application that are going to warp our societies even more 00:34:54.290 --> 00:35:00.800 badly than the old slow AIs, we.. have done. This isn't an exhaustive list, this is just 00:35:00.800 --> 00:35:05.160 some examples I dream, I pulled out of my ass. We need to work out a general 00:35:05.160 --> 00:35:08.430 strategy for getting on top of this sort of thing before they get on top of us and 00:35:08.430 --> 00:35:12.040 I think, this is actually a very urgent problem. So I'm just going to give you this 00:35:12.040 --> 00:35:18.110 list of dangerous new technologies that are arriving now, or coming, and send you 00:35:18.110 --> 00:35:22.150 away to think about what to do next. I mean, we are activists here, we should be 00:35:22.150 --> 00:35:27.690 thinking about this and planning what to do. Now, the first nasty technology I'd 00:35:27.690 --> 00:35:31.600 like to talk about, is political hacking tools that rely on social graph directed 00:35:31.600 --> 00:35:39.500 propaganda. This is low-hanging fruit after the electoral surprises of 2016. 00:35:39.500 --> 00:35:43.280 Cambridge Analytica pioneered the use of deep learning by scanning the Facebook and 00:35:43.280 --> 00:35:47.750 Twitter social graphs to identify voters political affiliations by simply looking 00:35:47.750 --> 00:35:52.950 at what tweets or Facebook comments they liked, very able to do this, to identify 00:35:52.950 --> 00:35:56.400 individuals with a high degree of precision, who were vulnerable to 00:35:56.400 --> 00:36:01.490 persuasion and who lived in electorally sensitive districts. They then canvassed 00:36:01.490 --> 00:36:06.910 them with propaganda, that targeted their personal hot-button issues to change their 00:36:06.910 --> 00:36:12.060 electoral intentions. The tools developed by web advertisers to sell products have 00:36:12.060 --> 00:36:16.260 now been weaponized for political purposes and the amount of personal information 00:36:16.260 --> 00:36:21.260 about our affiliations that we expose on social media, makes us vulnerable. Aside, in 00:36:21.260 --> 00:36:24.970 the last U.S. Presidential election, as mounting evidence for the British 00:36:24.970 --> 00:36:28.510 referendum on leaving the EU was subject to foreign cyber war attack, now 00:36:28.510 --> 00:36:33.250 weaponized social media, as was the most recent French Presidential election. 00:36:33.250 --> 00:36:38.080 In fact, if we remember the leak of emails from the Macron campaign, it turns out that 00:36:38.080 --> 00:36:42.020 many of those emails were false, because the Macron campaign anticipated that they 00:36:42.020 --> 00:36:47.120 would be attacked and an email trove would be leaked in the last days before the 00:36:47.120 --> 00:36:51.260 election. So they deliberately set up false emails that would be hacked and then 00:36:51.260 --> 00:37:00.610 leaked and then could be discredited. It gets twisty fast. Now I'm kind of biting 00:37:00.610 --> 00:37:04.650 my tongue and trying, not to take sides here. I have my own political affiliation 00:37:04.650 --> 00:37:09.770 after all, and I'm not terribly mainstream. But if social media companies don't work 00:37:09.770 --> 00:37:14.220 out how to identify and flag micro- targeted propaganda, then democratic 00:37:14.220 --> 00:37:18.140 institutions will stop working and elections will be replaced by victories, whoever 00:37:18.140 --> 00:37:23.200 can buy the most trolls. This won't simply be billionaires but.. like the Koch 00:37:23.200 --> 00:37:26.470 brothers and Robert Mercer from the U.S. throwing elections to whoever will 00:37:26.470 --> 00:37:31.120 hand them the biggest tax cuts. Russian military cyber war doctrine calls for the 00:37:31.120 --> 00:37:35.730 use of social media to confuse and disable perceived enemies, in addition to the 00:37:35.730 --> 00:37:39.900 increasingly familiar use of zero-day exploits for espionage, such as spear 00:37:39.900 --> 00:37:43.200 phishing and distributed denial-of-service attacks, on our infrastructure, which are 00:37:43.200 --> 00:37:49.260 practiced by Western agencies. Problem is, once the Russians have demonstrated that 00:37:49.260 --> 00:37:53.990 this is an effective tactic, the use of propaganda bot armies in cyber war will go 00:37:53.990 --> 00:38:00.400 global. And at that point, our social discourse will be irreparably poisoned. 00:38:00.400 --> 00:38:04.990 Incidentally, I'd like to add - as another aside like the Elon Musk thing - I hate 00:38:04.990 --> 00:38:09.680 the cyber prefix! It usually indicates, that whoever's using it has no idea what 00:38:09.680 --> 00:38:15.940 they're talking about. applause, laughter 00:38:15.940 --> 00:38:21.120 Unfortunately, much as the way the term hacker was corrupted from its original 00:38:21.120 --> 00:38:27.020 meaning in the 1990s, the term cyber war has, it seems, to have stuck and it's now an 00:38:27.020 --> 00:38:31.500 actual thing that we can point to and say: "This is what we're talking about". So I'm 00:38:31.500 --> 00:38:35.510 afraid, we're stuck with this really horrible term. But that's a digression, I 00:38:35.510 --> 00:38:38.780 should get back on topic, because I've only got 20 minutes to go. 00:38:38.780 --> 00:38:46.240 Now, the second threat that we need to think about regulating ,or controlling, is 00:38:46.240 --> 00:38:50.031 an adjunct to deep learning target propaganda: it's the use of neural network 00:38:50.031 --> 00:38:56.940 generated false video media. We're used to photoshopped images these days, but faking 00:38:56.940 --> 00:39:02.510 video and audio takes it to the next level. Luckily, faking video and audio is 00:39:02.510 --> 00:39:08.560 labor-intensive, isn't it? Well nope, not anymore. We're seeing the first generation 00:39:08.560 --> 00:39:13.510 of AI assisted video porn, in which the faces of film stars are mapped onto those 00:39:13.510 --> 00:39:17.370 of other people in a video clip, using software rather than laborious in human 00:39:17.370 --> 00:39:22.490 process. A properly trained neural network 00:39:22.490 --> 00:39:29.430 recognizes faces and transforms the face of the Hollywood star, they want to put 00:39:29.430 --> 00:39:35.190 into a porn movie, into the face of - onto the face of the porn star in the porn clip 00:39:35.190 --> 00:39:40.520 and suddenly you have "Oh dear God, get it out of my head" - no, not gonna give you 00:39:40.520 --> 00:39:43.500 any examples. Let's just say it's bad stuff. 00:39:43.500 --> 00:39:47.260 laughs Meanwhile we have WaveNet, a system 00:39:47.260 --> 00:39:51.120 for generating realistic sounding speech, if a voice of a human's speak of a neural 00:39:51.120 --> 00:39:56.160 network has been trained to mimic any human speaker. We can now put words into 00:39:56.160 --> 00:40:01.250 other people's mouths realistically without employing a voice actor. This 00:40:01.250 --> 00:40:06.650 stuff is still geek intensive. It requires relatively expensive GPUs or cloud 00:40:06.650 --> 00:40:10.910 computing clusters, but in less than a decade it'll be out in the wild, turned 00:40:10.910 --> 00:40:15.500 into something, any damn script kiddie can use and just about everyone will be able 00:40:15.500 --> 00:40:18.940 to fake up a realistic video of someone they don't like doing something horrible. 00:40:18.940 --> 00:40:26.970 I mean, Donald Trump in the White House. I can't help but hope that out there 00:40:26.970 --> 00:40:30.670 somewhere there's some geek like Steve Bannon with a huge rack of servers who's 00:40:30.670 --> 00:40:40.980 faking it all, but no. Now, also we've already seen alarm this year over bizarre 00:40:40.980 --> 00:40:45.090 YouTube channels that attempt to monetize children's TV brands by scraping the video 00:40:45.090 --> 00:40:50.220 content of legitimate channels and adding their own advertising in keywords on top 00:40:50.220 --> 00:40:54.110 before reposting it. This is basically your YouTube spam. 00:40:54.110 --> 00:40:58.521 Many of these channels are shaped by paperclip maximizing advertising AIs, but 00:40:58.521 --> 00:41:03.670 are simply trying to maximise their search ranking on YouTube and it's entirely 00:41:03.670 --> 00:41:08.470 algorithmic: you have a whole list of keywords, you perm, you take them, you slap 00:41:08.470 --> 00:41:15.300 them on top of existing popular videos and re-upload the videos. Once you add neural 00:41:15.300 --> 00:41:19.510 network driven tools for inserting character A into pirated video B, to click 00:41:19.510 --> 00:41:24.420 maximize.. for click maximizing bots, things are gonna get very weird, though. And 00:41:24.420 --> 00:41:28.980 they're gonna get even weirder, when these tools are deployed for political gain. 00:41:28.980 --> 00:41:34.830 We tend - being primates, that evolved 300 thousand years ago in a smartphone free 00:41:34.830 --> 00:41:39.950 environment - to evaluate the inputs from our eyes and ears much less critically 00:41:39.950 --> 00:41:44.380 than what random strangers on the Internet tell us in text. We're already too 00:41:44.380 --> 00:41:48.930 vulnerable to fake news as it is. Soon they'll be coming for us, armed with 00:41:48.930 --> 00:41:54.830 believable video evidence. The Smart Money says that by 2027 you won't be able to 00:41:54.830 --> 00:41:58.550 believe anything you see in video, unless for a cryptographic signatures on it, 00:41:58.550 --> 00:42:02.530 linking it back to the camera that shot the raw feed. But you know how good most 00:42:02.530 --> 00:42:08.150 people are at using encryption - it's going to be chaos! 00:42:08.150 --> 00:42:14.070 So, paperclip maximizers with focus on eyeballs are very 20th century. The new 00:42:14.070 --> 00:42:19.750 generation is going to be focusing on our nervous system. Advertising as an industry 00:42:19.750 --> 00:42:22.510 can only exist because of a quirk of our nervous system, which is that we're 00:42:22.510 --> 00:42:26.680 susceptible to addiction. Be it tobacco, gambling or heroin, we 00:42:26.680 --> 00:42:31.980 recognize addictive behavior, when we see it. Well, do we? It turns out the human 00:42:31.980 --> 00:42:36.250 brain's reward feedback loops are relatively easy to gain. Large 00:42:36.250 --> 00:42:41.400 corporations like Zynga - producers of FarmVille - exist solely because of it, 00:42:41.400 --> 00:42:45.580 free to use social media platforms like Facebook and Twitter, are dominant precisely 00:42:45.580 --> 00:42:50.100 because they're structured to reward frequent short bursts of interaction and 00:42:50.100 --> 00:42:54.790 to generate emotional engagement - not necessarily positive emotions, anger and 00:42:54.790 --> 00:42:59.660 hatred are just as good when it comes to attracting eyeballs for advertisers. 00:42:59.660 --> 00:43:04.510 Smartphone addiction is a side effect of advertising as a revenue model. Frequent 00:43:04.510 --> 00:43:09.850 short bursts of interaction to keep us coming back for more. Now a new.. newish 00:43:09.850 --> 00:43:13.720 development, thanks to deep learning again - I keep coming back to deep learning, 00:43:13.720 --> 00:43:19.290 don't I? - use of neural networks in a manner that Marvin Minsky never envisaged, 00:43:19.290 --> 00:43:22.530 back when he was deciding that the Perzeptron was where it began and ended 00:43:22.530 --> 00:43:27.360 and it couldn't do anything. Well, we have neuroscientists now, who've 00:43:27.360 --> 00:43:33.680 mechanized the process of making apps more addictive. Dopamine Labs is one startup 00:43:33.680 --> 00:43:38.030 that provides tools to app developers to make any app more addictive, as well as to 00:43:38.030 --> 00:43:41.130 reduce the desire to continue participating in a behavior if it's 00:43:41.130 --> 00:43:46.520 undesirable, if the app developer actually wants to help people kick the habit. This 00:43:46.520 --> 00:43:52.060 goes way beyond automated A/B testing. A/B testing allows developers to plot a binary 00:43:52.060 --> 00:43:58.760 tree path between options, moving towards a single desired goal. But true deep 00:43:58.760 --> 00:44:03.640 learning, addictiveness maximizers, can optimize for multiple attractors in 00:44:03.640 --> 00:44:10.011 parallel. The more users you've got on your app, the more effectively you can work 00:44:10.011 --> 00:44:16.920 out, what attracts them and train them and focus on extra addictive characteristics. 00:44:16.920 --> 00:44:20.610 Now, going by their public face, the folks at Dopamine Labs seem to have ethical 00:44:20.610 --> 00:44:24.930 qualms about the misuse of addiction maximizers. But neuroscience isn't a 00:44:24.930 --> 00:44:28.730 secret and sooner or later some really unscrupulous sociopaths will try to see 00:44:28.730 --> 00:44:36.440 how far they can push it. So let me give you a specific imaginary scenario: Apple 00:44:36.440 --> 00:44:41.400 have put a lot of effort into making real- time face recognition work on the iPhone X 00:44:41.400 --> 00:44:44.940 and it's going to be everywhere on everybody's phone in another couple of 00:44:44.940 --> 00:44:50.760 years. You can't fool an iPhone X with a photo or even a simple mask. It does depth 00:44:50.760 --> 00:44:54.010 mapping to ensure, your eyes are in the right place and can tell whether they're 00:44:54.010 --> 00:44:58.200 open or closed. It recognizes your face from underlying bone structure through 00:44:58.200 --> 00:45:02.760 makeup and bruises. It's running continuously, checking pretty much as often 00:45:02.760 --> 00:45:06.840 as every time you'd hit the home button on a more traditional smartphone UI and it 00:45:06.840 --> 00:45:13.750 can see where your eyeballs are pointing. The purpose of a face recognition system 00:45:13.750 --> 00:45:19.980 is to provide for real-time authenticate continuous authentication when you're 00:45:19.980 --> 00:45:23.960 using a device - not just enter a PIN or sign a password or use a two factor 00:45:23.960 --> 00:45:28.420 authentication pad, but the device knows that you are its authorized user on a 00:45:28.420 --> 00:45:33.000 continuous basis and if somebody grabs your phone and runs away with it, it'll 00:45:33.000 --> 00:45:38.050 know that it's been stolen immediately, it sees the face of the thief. 00:45:38.050 --> 00:45:42.910 However, your phone monitoring your facial expressions and correlating against app 00:45:42.910 --> 00:45:48.250 usage has other implications. Your phone will be aware of precisely what you like 00:45:48.250 --> 00:45:53.550 to look at on your screen.. on its screen. We may well have sufficient insight on the 00:45:53.550 --> 00:45:59.740 part of the phone to identify whether you're happy or sad, bored or engaged. 00:45:59.740 --> 00:46:04.680 With addiction seeking deep learning tools and neural network generated images, those 00:46:04.680 --> 00:46:09.150 synthetic videos I was talking about, it's entirely.. in principle entirely possible to 00:46:09.150 --> 00:46:15.250 feed you an endlessly escalating payload of arousal-inducing inputs. It might be 00:46:15.250 --> 00:46:19.440 Facebook or Twitter messages, optimized to produce outrage, or it could be porn 00:46:19.440 --> 00:46:24.620 generated by AI to appeal to kinks you don't even consciously know you have. 00:46:24.620 --> 00:46:28.980 But either way, the app now owns your central nervous system and you will be 00:46:28.980 --> 00:46:36.230 monetized. And finally, I'd like to raise a really hair-raising specter that goes well 00:46:36.230 --> 00:46:41.730 beyond the use of deep learning and targeted propaganda and cyber war. Back in 00:46:41.730 --> 00:46:46.340 2011, an obscure Russian software house launched an iPhone app for pickup artists 00:46:46.340 --> 00:46:52.940 called 'Girls Around Me'. Spoiler: Apple pulled it like a hot potato as soon as 00:46:52.940 --> 00:46:59.060 word got out that it existed. Now, Girls Around Me works out where the user is 00:46:59.060 --> 00:47:03.730 using GPS, then it would query Foursquare and Facebook for people matching a simple 00:47:03.730 --> 00:47:09.880 relational search, for single females on Facebook, per relationship status, who have 00:47:09.880 --> 00:47:15.020 checked in, or been checked in by their friends, in your vicinity on Foursquare. 00:47:15.020 --> 00:47:19.270 The app then displays their locations on a map along with links to their social media 00:47:19.270 --> 00:47:24.560 profiles. If they were doing it today, the interface would be gamified, showing strike 00:47:24.560 --> 00:47:28.980 rates and a leaderboard and flagging targets who succumbed to harassment as 00:47:28.980 --> 00:47:31.960 easy lays. But these days, the cool kids and single 00:47:31.960 --> 00:47:35.980 adults are all using dating apps with a missing vowel in the name, only a creeper 00:47:35.980 --> 00:47:45.420 would want something like Girls Around Me, right? Unfortunately, there are much, much 00:47:45.420 --> 00:47:49.450 nastier uses of and scraping social media to find potential victims for serial 00:47:49.450 --> 00:47:54.480 rapists. Does your social media profile indicate your political religious 00:47:54.480 --> 00:47:59.650 affiliation? No? Cambridge Analytica can work them out with 99.9% precision 00:47:59.650 --> 00:48:04.660 anyway, so don't worry about that. We already have you pegged. Now add a service 00:48:04.660 --> 00:48:08.430 that can identify people's affiliation and location and you have a beginning of a 00:48:08.430 --> 00:48:13.520 flash mob app, one that will show people like us and people like them on a 00:48:13.520 --> 00:48:18.551 hyperlocal map. Imagine you're a young female and a 00:48:18.551 --> 00:48:22.240 supermarket like Target has figured out from your purchase patterns, that you're 00:48:22.240 --> 00:48:28.160 pregnant, even though you don't know it yet. This actually happened in 2011. Now 00:48:28.160 --> 00:48:31.250 imagine, that all the anti-abortion campaigners in your town have an app 00:48:31.250 --> 00:48:36.110 called "Babies Risk" on their phones. Someone has paid for the analytics feed 00:48:36.110 --> 00:48:40.320 from the supermarket and every time you go near a family planning clinic, a group of 00:48:40.320 --> 00:48:44.270 unfriendly anti-abortion protesters somehow miraculously show up and swarm 00:48:44.270 --> 00:48:49.990 you. Or imagine you're male and gay and the "God hates fags"-crowd has invented a 00:48:49.990 --> 00:48:55.300 100% reliable gaydar app, based on your Grindr profile, and is getting their fellow 00:48:55.300 --> 00:49:00.810 travelers to queer bash gay men - only when they're alone or outnumbered by ten to 00:49:00.810 --> 00:49:06.410 one. That's the special horror of precise geolocation not only do you always know 00:49:06.410 --> 00:49:13.020 where you are, the AIs know, where you are and some of them aren't friendly. Or 00:49:13.020 --> 00:49:17.330 imagine, you're in Pakistan and Christian Muslim tensions are rising or in rural 00:49:17.330 --> 00:49:24.250 Alabama or an Democrat, you know the possibilities are endless. Someone out 00:49:24.250 --> 00:49:30.120 there is working on this. A geolocation aware, social media scraping deep learning 00:49:30.120 --> 00:49:34.230 application, that uses a gamified competitive interface to reward its 00:49:34.230 --> 00:49:38.500 players for joining in acts of mob violence against whoever the app developer 00:49:38.500 --> 00:49:41.640 hates. Probably it has an innocuous seeming, but 00:49:41.640 --> 00:49:46.650 highly addictive training mode, to get the users accustomed to working in teams and 00:49:46.650 --> 00:49:52.640 obeying the apps instructions. Think Ingress or Pokemon Go. Then at some pre- 00:49:52.640 --> 00:49:57.770 planned zero-hour, it switches mode and starts rewarding players for violence, 00:49:57.770 --> 00:50:01.780 players who have been primed to think of their targets as vermin by a steady drip 00:50:01.780 --> 00:50:06.470 feed of micro-targeted dehumanizing propaganda inputs, delivered over a period 00:50:06.470 --> 00:50:12.310 of months. And the worst bit of this picture? Is that the app developer isn't even a 00:50:12.310 --> 00:50:16.540 nation-state trying to disrupt its enemies or an extremist political group trying to 00:50:16.540 --> 00:50:22.000 murder gays, Jews or Muslims. It's just a Paperclip Maximizer doing what it does 00:50:22.000 --> 00:50:27.900 and you are the paper. Welcome to the 21st century. 00:50:27.900 --> 00:50:40.730 applause Uhm... 00:50:40.730 --> 00:50:41.960 Thank you. 00:50:41.960 --> 00:50:47.780 ongoing applause We have a little time for questions. Do 00:50:47.780 --> 00:50:53.790 you have a microphone for the orders? Do we have any questions? ... OK. 00:50:53.790 --> 00:50:56.430 Herald: So you are doing a Q&A? CS: Hmm? 00:50:56.430 --> 00:51:02.290 Herald: So you are doing a Q&A. Well if there are any questions, please come 00:51:02.290 --> 00:51:24.320 forward to the microphones, numbers 1 through 4 and ask. 00:51:24.320 --> 00:51:29.010 Mic 1: Do you really think it's all bleak and dystopian like you prescribed 00:51:29.010 --> 00:51:34.750 it, because I also think the future can be bright, looking at the internet with open 00:51:34.750 --> 00:51:38.730 source and like, it's all growing and going faster and faster in a good 00:51:38.730 --> 00:51:44.110 direction. So what do you think about the balance here? 00:51:44.110 --> 00:51:48.070 CS: sighs Basically, I think the problem is, that about 3% of us 00:51:48.070 --> 00:51:54.330 are sociopaths or psychopaths, who spoil everything for the other 97% of us. 00:51:54.330 --> 00:51:56.980 Wouldn't it be great if somebody could write an app that would identify all the 00:51:56.980 --> 00:51:59.690 psychopaths among us and let the rest of us just kill them? 00:51:59.690 --> 00:52:05.320 laughing, applause Yeah, we have all the 00:52:05.320 --> 00:52:12.300 tools to make a utopia, we have it now today. A bleak miserable grim meathook 00:52:12.300 --> 00:52:17.510 future is not inevitable, but it's up to us to use these tools to prevent the bad 00:52:17.510 --> 00:52:22.480 stuff happening and to do that, we have to anticipate the bad outcomes and work to 00:52:22.480 --> 00:52:25.260 try and figure out a way to deal with them. That's what this talk is. I'm trying 00:52:25.260 --> 00:52:29.300 to do a bit of a wake-up call and get people thinking about how much worse 00:52:29.300 --> 00:52:33.630 things can get and what we need to do to prevent it from happening. What I was 00:52:33.630 --> 00:52:37.960 saying earlier about our regulatory systems being broken, stands. How do we 00:52:37.960 --> 00:52:47.500 regulate the deep learning technologies? This is something we need to think about. 00:52:47.500 --> 00:52:55.230 H: Okay mic number two. Mic 2: Hello? ... When you talk about 00:52:55.230 --> 00:53:02.250 corporations as AIs, where do you see that analogy you're making? Do you see them as 00:53:02.250 --> 00:53:10.010 literally AIs or figuratively? CS: Almost literally. If 00:53:10.010 --> 00:53:14.230 you're familiar with philosopher (?) Searle's Chinese room paradox 00:53:14.230 --> 00:53:17.620 from the 1970s, by which he attempted to prove that artificial intelligence was 00:53:17.620 --> 00:53:24.380 impossible, a corporation is very much the Chinese room implementation of an AI. It 00:53:24.380 --> 00:53:29.400 is a bunch of human beings in a box. You put inputs into the box, you get apples 00:53:29.400 --> 00:53:33.000 out of a box. Does it matter, whether it's all happening in software or whether 00:53:33.000 --> 00:53:37.520 there's a human being following rules inbetween to assemble the output? I don't 00:53:37.520 --> 00:53:41.190 see there being much of a difference. Now you have to look at a company at a 00:53:41.190 --> 00:53:46.630 very abstract level to view it as an AI, but more and more companies are automating 00:53:46.630 --> 00:53:54.500 their internal business processes. You've got to view this as an ongoing trend. And 00:53:54.500 --> 00:54:01.490 yeah, they have many of the characteristics of an AI. 00:54:01.490 --> 00:54:06.240 Herald: Okay mic number four. Mic 4: Hi, thanks for your talk. 00:54:06.240 --> 00:54:13.220 You probably heard of the Time Well Spent and Design Ethics movements that 00:54:13.220 --> 00:54:16.850 are alerting developers to dark patterns in UI design, where 00:54:16.850 --> 00:54:20.630 these people design apps to manipulate people. I'm curious if you find any 00:54:20.630 --> 00:54:26.750 optimism in the possibility of amplifying or promoting those movements. 00:54:26.750 --> 00:54:31.570 CS: Uhm, you know, I knew about dark patterns, I knew about people trying to 00:54:31.570 --> 00:54:36.230 optimize them, I wasn't actually aware there were movements against this. Okay I'm 00:54:36.230 --> 00:54:40.760 53 years old, I'm out of touch. I haven't actually done any serious programming in 00:54:40.760 --> 00:54:47.000 15 years. I'm so rusty, my rust has rust on it. But, you know, it is a worrying trend 00:54:47.000 --> 00:54:54.000 and actual activism is a good start. Raising awareness of hazards and of what 00:54:54.000 --> 00:54:58.330 we should be doing about them, is a good start. And I would classify this actually 00:54:58.330 --> 00:55:04.220 as a moral issue. We need to.. corporations evaluate everything in terms 00:55:04.220 --> 00:55:07.960 of revenue, because it's very equivalent to breathing, they have to 00:55:07.960 --> 00:55:13.810 breathe. Corporations don't usually have any moral framework. We're humans, we need 00:55:13.810 --> 00:55:18.480 a moral framework to operate within. Even if it's as simple as first "Do no harm!" 00:55:18.480 --> 00:55:22.500 or "Do not do unto others that which would be repugnant if it was done unto you!", 00:55:22.500 --> 00:55:26.450 the Golden Rule. So, yeah, we should be trying to spread awareness of this about 00:55:26.450 --> 00:55:32.170 and working with program developers, to look to remind them that they are human 00:55:32.170 --> 00:55:36.480 beings and have to be humane in their application of technology, is a necessary 00:55:36.480 --> 00:55:39.510 start. applause 00:55:39.510 --> 00:55:45.501 H: Thank you! Mic 3? Mic 3: Hi! Yeah, I think that folks, 00:55:45.501 --> 00:55:48.600 especially in this sort of crowd, tend to jump to the "just get off of 00:55:48.600 --> 00:55:52.330 Facebook"-solution first, for a lot of these things that are really, really 00:55:52.330 --> 00:55:56.640 scary. But what worries me, is how we sort of silence ourselves when we do that. 00:55:56.640 --> 00:56:02.240 After the election I actually got back on Facebook, because the Women's March was 00:56:02.240 --> 00:56:07.250 mostly organized through Facebook. But yeah, I think we need a lot more 00:56:07.250 --> 00:56:12.880 regulation, but we can't just throw it out. We're.. because it's.. 00:56:12.880 --> 00:56:16.520 social media is the only... really good platform we have right now 00:56:16.520 --> 00:56:20.410 to express ourselves, to have our rules, or power. 00:56:20.410 --> 00:56:24.660 CS: Absolutely. I have made a point of not really using Facebook 00:56:24.660 --> 00:56:28.480 for many, many, many years. I have a Facebook page simply to 00:56:28.480 --> 00:56:31.530 shut up the young marketing people at my publisher, who used to prop up every two 00:56:31.530 --> 00:56:34.680 years and say: "Why don't you have a Facebook. Everybody's got a Facebook." 00:56:34.680 --> 00:56:39.790 No, I've had a blog since 1993! laughing 00:56:39.790 --> 00:56:44.170 But no, I'm gonna have to use Facebook, because these days, not using Facebook is 00:56:44.170 --> 00:56:50.780 like not using email. You're cutting off your nose to spite your face. What we 00:56:50.780 --> 00:56:54.830 really do need to be doing, is looking for some form of effective oversight of 00:56:54.830 --> 00:57:00.830 Facebook and particularly, of how they.. the algorithms that show you content, are 00:57:00.830 --> 00:57:05.340 written. What I was saying earlier about how algorithms are not as transparent as 00:57:05.340 --> 00:57:10.530 human beings to people, applies hugely to them. And both, Facebook and Twitter 00:57:10.530 --> 00:57:15.180 control the information that they display to you. 00:57:15.180 --> 00:57:18.690 Herald: Okay, I'm terribly sorry for all the people queuing at the mics now, we're out 00:57:18.690 --> 00:57:24.960 of time. I also have to apologize, I announced, that this talk was being held in 00:57:24.960 --> 00:57:29.690 English, but it was being held in English. the latter pronounced on the G 00:57:29.690 --> 00:57:31.470 Thank you very much, Charles Stross! 00:57:31.470 --> 00:57:33.690 CS: Thank you very much for listening to me, it's been a pleasure! 00:57:33.690 --> 00:57:36.500 applause 00:57:36.500 --> 00:57:52.667 postroll music 00:57:52.667 --> 00:57:57.781 subtitles created by c3subtitles.de in the year 2018