WEBVTT

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周期性失业

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今天我们来讲周期性失业

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即 与商业周期起伏有关的失业情况

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。

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使用FRED数据库

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很容易看出经济萧条时

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经济就会衰退或者增长得很缓慢

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从而失业率就会增加

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实际上 低增长以及高失业率

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就是经济萧条定义的一部分

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低增长经常伴随着高失业率

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其原因有两点

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第一 很显然

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当GDP增长或减少的比预期更慢

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公司就会裁员 因此导致失业

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第二个原因更微妙一些

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失业率高意味着

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生产产品和服务的劳动力就会变少

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当工人们没事可做的时候

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资本就会闲置

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当一个经济的劳动力空闲 资本闲置时

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就不会使增长最大化

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虽然失业率肯定与商业周期有关

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。

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但经济学家们还是在讨论其具体原因

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我们来看一些问题 比如说

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当GDP增长情况下降的时候

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失业率就会飙升

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但还是会慢慢回到正常水平

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例如 2008年经济衰退的时候

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失业率飙升

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2010年 经济实际上

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在以一个缓慢但平稳的速率增长 
即每年2%

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但在未来的五年里

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失业率都没有回到经济衰退前的水平

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为什么失业率要花这么长的时间

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才能回到正常水平

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以典型市场为例 比如说苹果市场

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失业的苹果

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就是那些未售出的苹果

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在这种高苹果失业率的情况下

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在现行价格下

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供大于求

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所以你觉得这种情况下会发生什么

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通常 苹果的价格会一直下跌

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直到苹果的供求相平衡

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以及市场出清了

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然而 人比苹果可复杂多了

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而且劳工市场似乎也并不是这样

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即使有很多失业工人

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即工人也供大于求了

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。

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工资比你预期下降得还要慢

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经济学家称 工资十分“粘性”

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粘性工资导致雇工人的激励措施减少

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而且调整过程也相应变慢

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如今粘性工资很令人费解

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经济学家有很多有关为何工资粘性的理论

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。

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最关键的原因可能是

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当人们的工资减少时 人们就会变得心烦意乱

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特别是这种工资的下降

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是由一个显而易见的人造成的 即老板

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想象一下 你的老板削减了你的工资

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你可能会十分烦躁

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你甚至有可能会不那么努力工作

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或者扰乱工作环境以此报复

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因为老板担心削减士气

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所以不愿减少基本工资

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比如说这张图显示出

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非零工资变化的分布

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工资小额的增长是很普遍的

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但小额的减少却是十分罕见的

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如今即使是成长经济中

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我们都会期待看到工资波动 就如其他价格一样

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很多工资的小额减少以及小额增加

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供求一直在变化

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但这不是我们所看到的

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工资的增加比减少要更常见

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