[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.30,0:00:04.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,周期性失业
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.93,0:00:17.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,今天我们来讲周期性失业
Dialogue: 0,0:00:17.06,0:00:19.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,即 与商业周期起伏有关的失业情况
Dialogue: 0,0:00:19.95,0:00:21.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,。
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.71,0:00:23.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,使用FRED数据库
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.98,0:00:26.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,很容易看出经济萧条时
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.92,0:00:29.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,经济就会衰退或者增长得很缓慢
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.57,0:00:32.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,从而失业率就会增加
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.19,0:00:34.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,实际上 低增长以及高失业率
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.65,0:00:37.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,就是经济萧条定义的一部分
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.17,0:00:40.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,低增长经常伴随着高失业率
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.17,0:00:43.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,其原因有两点
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.69,0:00:46.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,第一 很显然
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.55,0:00:49.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,当GDP增长或减少的比预期更慢
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.39,0:00:53.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,公司就会裁员 因此导致失业
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.43,0:00:55.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,第二个原因更微妙一些
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.87,0:00:58.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,失业率高意味着
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.24,0:01:02.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,生产产品和服务的劳动力就会变少
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.37,0:01:04.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,当工人们没事可做的时候
Dialogue: 0,0:01:04.69,0:01:08.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,资本就会闲置
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.85,0:01:11.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,当一个经济的劳动力空闲 资本闲置时
Dialogue: 0,0:01:11.30,0:01:14.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,就不会使增长最大化
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.34,0:01:17.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,虽然失业率肯定与商业周期有关
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.91,0:01:19.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,。
Dialogue: 0,0:01:19.75,0:01:23.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但经济学家们还是在讨论其具体原因
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.33,0:01:26.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们来看一些问题 比如说
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.02,0:01:29.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,当GDP增长情况下降的时候
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.35,0:01:31.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,失业率就会飙升
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.66,0:01:35.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但还是会慢慢回到正常水平
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.81,0:01:39.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,例如 2008年经济衰退的时候
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.25,0:01:42.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,失业率飙升
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.05,0:01:46.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,2010年 经济实际上
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.49,0:01:51.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在以一个缓慢但平稳的速率增长 \N即每年2%
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.24,0:01:55.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但在未来的五年里
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.60,0:01:57.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,失业率都没有回到经济衰退前的水平
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.65,0:02:02.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,为什么失业率要花这么长的时间
Dialogue: 0,0:02:02.34,0:02:04.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,才能回到正常水平
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.62,0:02:09.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,以典型市场为例 比如说苹果市场
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.26,0:02:12.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,失业的苹果
Dialogue: 0,0:02:12.54,0:02:14.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,就是那些未售出的苹果
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.66,0:02:18.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在这种高苹果失业率的情况下
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.29,0:02:20.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,在现行价格下
Dialogue: 0,0:02:20.11,0:02:23.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,供大于求
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.11,0:02:25.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,所以你觉得这种情况下会发生什么
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.93,0:02:29.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,通常 苹果的价格会一直下跌
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.59,0:02:31.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,直到苹果的供求相平衡
Dialogue: 0,0:02:31.44,0:02:35.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,以及市场出清了
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.99,0:02:39.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,然而 人比苹果可复杂多了
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.58,0:02:43.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,而且劳工市场似乎也并不是这样
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.44,0:02:46.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,即使有很多失业工人
Dialogue: 0,0:02:46.78,0:02:48.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,即工人也供大于求了
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.94,0:02:50.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,。
Dialogue: 0,0:02:50.68,0:02:55.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,工资比你预期下降得还要慢
Dialogue: 0,0:02:55.83,0:02:59.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,经济学家称 工资十分“粘性”
Dialogue: 0,0:02:59.73,0:03:04.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,粘性工资导致雇工人的激励措施减少
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.68,0:03:08.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,而且调整过程也相应变慢
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.10,0:03:10.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,如今粘性工资很令人费解
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.01,0:03:12.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,经济学家有很多有关为何工资粘性的理论
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.21,0:03:15.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,。
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.67,0:03:20.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,最关键的原因可能是
Dialogue: 0,0:03:20.38,0:03:25.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,当人们的工资减少时 人们就会变得心烦意乱
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.02,0:03:29.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,特别是这种工资的下降
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.32,0:03:33.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,是由一个显而易见的人造成的 即老板
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.24,0:03:35.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,想象一下 你的老板削减了你的工资
Dialogue: 0,0:03:35.89,0:03:37.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你可能会十分烦躁
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.97,0:03:40.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,你甚至有可能会不那么努力工作
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.82,0:03:43.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,或者扰乱工作环境以此报复
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.71,0:03:47.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,因为老板担心削减士气
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.71,0:03:51.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,所以不愿减少基本工资
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.85,0:03:54.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,比如说这张图显示出
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.20,0:03:57.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,非零工资变化的分布
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.01,0:03:59.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,工资小额的增长是很普遍的
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.97,0:04:03.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但小额的减少却是十分罕见的
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.84,0:04:06.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,如今即使是成长经济中
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.74,0:04:10.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,我们都会期待看到工资波动 就如其他价格一样
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.99,0:04:15.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,很多工资的小额减少以及小额增加
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.42,0:04:18.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,供求一直在变化
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.74,0:04:21.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,但这不是我们所看到的
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.17,0:04:25.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,工资的增加比减少要更常见
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.14,0:04:30.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:30.72,0:04:34.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.35,0:04:37.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.35,0:04:40.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.24,0:04:43.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:44.24,0:04:46.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.99,0:04:50.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.87,0:04:55.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.11,0:04:58.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.46,0:05:00.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.04,0:05:02.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.58,0:05:04.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.72,0:05:06.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:06.70,0:05:09.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:09.92,0:05:12.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.04,0:05:16.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.72,0:05:20.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.62,0:05:23.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.50,0:05:27.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:27.13,0:05:31.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.77,0:05:35.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.56,0:05:37.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.25,0:05:41.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.66,0:05:45.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.15,0:05:47.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.44,0:05:51.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:51.02,0:05:53.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.96,0:05:58.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.07,0:06:01.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:01.71,0:06:04.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.33,0:06:06.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.73,0:06:09.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:10.23,0:06:13.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:13.88,0:06:17.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.14,0:06:21.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:21.42,0:06:24.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.31,0:06:27.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.44,0:06:30.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.42,0:06:31.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:31.98,0:06:34.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.90,0:06:38.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.63,0:06:41.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.96,0:06:45.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:45.34,0:06:49.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.94,0:06:54.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.55,0:06:59.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.28,0:07:03.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.11,0:07:06.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.67,0:07:09.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.76,0:07:13.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.01,0:07:16.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.83,0:07:22.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:23.55,0:07:25.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.13,0:07:27.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:27.12,0:07:28.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.95,0:07:31.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.20,0:07:36.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.75,0:07:39.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:39.68,0:07:42.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,