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Thank you very much.

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The world is, in many ways,
organized in a nested system.

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And so we have nations,

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within those we have industries;

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within industries we have corporations;

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within those we have business units;

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within those we have teams;

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within the teams we have people;

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and within people we have our brains.

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We are nested.

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It turns out that,

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as I have and my colleagues have tried
to understand how business works,

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we've developed a set of theories.

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And when I say a theory,
what I mean is a statement of causality,

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an understanding
of what causes what and why.

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Some of you know some of the theories.
Disruption is a theory.

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What it asserts is that the mechanism
that causes successful companies to fall,

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it's not that they're not at their work,

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but rather somebody comes in at the bottom
of the market and moves up.

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And it's that the mechanism, the pursue
of profit from at the bottom of the market

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that makes success so hard to sustain.

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There's another theory,

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called the theory
of the preservation of modularity.

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The theory of the preservation
of modularity

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explains among the other things
why the euro doesn't work

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and why SAP implementation systems

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are so difficult and complicated.

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There's another theory
called jobs-to-be-done,

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and what it asserts is that,
you know, here's Clay;

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I have characteristics:
I'm unfortunately 60 years old now,

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I live in the suburbs, five children,

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and unfortunately, have all left
and are living independently,

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and life has become boring.

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(Laughter)

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But the fact that I have
those characteristics

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doesn't cause me to go out
and buy The New York Times.

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There might be a correlation
between my characteristics

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and the propensity to buy
The New York Times,

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but the characteristics
don't cause me to do anything.

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What causes us to do something

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is there's a job that arises in our life
and we have to get the job done,

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and what causes us
to buy a product or service

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is we have to reach out and find something

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that can do the job
and pull it into our lives.

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That's the causal mechanism
behind a purchase,

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is understanding what's the job,

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and the insight there is that the customer
is the wrong unit of analysis,

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it's the job that we need to understand.

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So these are all theories,

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and some of you know those,
and a number of others from our research.

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What we have learned,
and inadvertently in many ways,

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is that these statements of causality

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apply at every stage
in this nested system,

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and so, the theories help us understand

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why nations lose their competitiveness,

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why Japan was so successful
and then died, for example;

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and why America finds it so hard
to regain our momentum;

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- and that goes all the way down
to the point of teams -

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a number of years ago, in my course
at the Harvard Business School.

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In this course, we study these theories,

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try to understand them,

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then put these theories on a set of lenses

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and examine companies,
or economies, or industries

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and try to understand

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can we understand why things
are happening the way they are happening,

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and what actions
would lead to what results.

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At the end of the course, on the last day,

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rather than asking them

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to just put on these lenses
and examine yet another company,

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I asked them to look in the mirror,

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and ask them,

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"Can you explain why your life
is the way it is today

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because of these theories?",

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and "Can you predict
what will happen in your life

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if you continue to do
what you are now doing?"

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And it's been a remarkable experience

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to see the students come back
on the last day of class

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and with causal theories
as the explanation,

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what they need to change in their lives

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so that their life will be the life
that they hoped to live.

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And I thought, I just offer
a couple of these

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in the hopes that as entrepreneurs

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and ambitious people

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you end up living the life
that you hope you will live.

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So one of the things
we observed, as I mentioned,

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is that what kills successful companies

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is somebody comes in
at the bottom of the market.

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So if you go back a few years ago
in telecommunications,

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the Darwins of the industry
were Lucent and Nortel,

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made circuit switching technology,

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and this rusty, little or small company

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not very consequential
called Cisco emerged.

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And their technology, the router,
wasn't good enough to be used in voice,

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but they deployed it at the bottom
of the market with data,

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and then went up market,
and ultimately, killed Lucent and Nortel.

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The reason why is
that when they look down at the router,

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the router on every dimension
wasn't as good.

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So they kept making better and better

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circuit switch devices.

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And we ask ourselves,

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"I wonder who decided at Lucent

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that they should go out and get killed?"

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(Laughter)

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"And when was the date on
which they decided they would get killed?"

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And the answer, of course,
is that nobody made the decision.

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In fact, what happened
is all the individual people

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in a very successful organization
did everything right,

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but because they did
all of these things independently

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and what made sense
in those circumstances,

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when it summed up,
it summed up to disaster.

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The reason why it sums up to disaster

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is they're trying to maximize
their profitability

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and typically, the way
you calculate profitability:

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tomorrow's investments
that pay off tomorrow

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go to the bottom line

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and are much more tangible than investment
that pay off ten years from now.

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When I go back to my graduating classes,

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I graduated from the MBA program
at Harvard in 1979,

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we have a reunion every five years.

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When we came back for a fifth reunion,
man, everybody was happy;

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most of our classmates had married

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people who are much better looking
than my classmates

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(Laughter)

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they're doing well in their career,

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but as we hit the tenth, the 15th, 20th,
and then the 25th anniversaries,

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oh my gosh, my friends were coming back

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not happy with their lives.

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And very many of them
have gotten divorced,

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and their spouses had remarried,
and they were raising

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their - my classmates' - children
on the other side of the country

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alienated from them.

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I guarantee that none of my classmates

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ever planned when they graduated
from the business school

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to go out, and get divorced,

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and have children who hate their guts,

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and are being raised by other [parents],

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and yet, a very large portion
of our my classmates

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actually implemented a strategy

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that they never planned to do.

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(Laughter)

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It turns out that the reason
why they do that

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is the very same mechanism
and that is that pursuit of achievement.

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So, we all, everybody here,
is driven to achieve,

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and when you have an extra ounce
of energy or 30 minutes of time,

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instinctively and unconsciously,

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you'll allocate it
to whatever activities in your life

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give you the most immediate
evidence of achievement.

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And our careers provide
that immediate evidence of achievement:

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we closed a sale, we ship a product,

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we finish a mid-presentation,

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we close a deal,
we get promoted, we get paid.

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Our careers provide the most,
very tangible, immediate achievement.

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In contrast,

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investments in our families
don't pay off for a very long time.

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In fact, on a day-to-day basis,

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our children misbehave
over and over again,

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and it really it isn't until 20 years down
the road you can look at your children

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and be able to put your hands
on your hips and say,

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"We raised great children."

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But on a day-to-day basis,
achievement isn't at hand

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when we invest in relationships

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with our family, their children,
and our spouses.

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And as a consequence, people like you
and I who plan to have a happy life,

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because our families truly are

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the deepest source
of happiness in our lives,

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find that although that's what we want,

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the way we invest our time,
and energy, and talents

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causes us to implement a strategy
that we wouldn't at all plan to pursue.

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And so I wanted to just offer that one;

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is something to think about.

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The reason why successful companies fail

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is they invest in things that provide

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the most immediate
and tangible evidence of achievement,

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and the reason why they have
such a short time horizon

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is that they are run
by people like you and I.

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We then apply
that very same thinking process

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in our personal lives with sad results.

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Let me just offer another thought
that might be useful.

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I was driving to work
a number of years ago early,

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and when I was
on Huron Avenue in Cambridge,

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I just had a feeling

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that something important was going
to happen to Clay Christensen,

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that I was going to be given

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a much more consequential
business opportunity

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than I have just as a plain,
old professor.

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A couple of weeks later,

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somebody who was in that position
announced that he was leaving,

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and I put two and two
together and decided,

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"Gosh! Sounds like, for whatever reason,

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I just had this feeling
that I'm going to be his replacement."

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So the day came,
and they chose another person.

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I wondered why did I have that feeling

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that an important thing
was going to happen to me.

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Did the people kind of lose guts?
Or... I don't know.

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But I wrestled with

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how will they measure
Clay Christensen's life?

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If they're going to not make me
the leader of a large institution,

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how do I know whether my life
has been worth living?

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And again, how I measure my life?

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I realized that I studied this
for a long time,

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and I reached the strangest conclusion:

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that God doesn't employ
accountants or statisticians.

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And what I mean by that is,
because you and I have finite minds,

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when we try to understand
what's going on in the world,

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we have to aggregate things.

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So in your companies,

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you can't keep track
of every individual invoice,

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and so you have
to aggregate all those up,

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so that you have receivables,
and payables, and revenues.

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You can't keep track
of every element of cost,

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and so you have to aggregate
all that up into total cost categories,

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and then you subtract that from this,
and there's a number,

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and that's the way we try
to understand the world;

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is because we have limited minds,
we have to aggregate things up.

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And then we'll look at that number
compared to last year's number,

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and if it's better, then we say
we're doing better.

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That's the way we look at the world
because of our but minds.

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It has then another
interesting effect on us,

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and that is,
because we have to aggregate,

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we get a sense of hierarchy in the world.

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In other words,

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people who are higher up
in larger organizations

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are more important

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than people who preside

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over fewer numbers of people
and fewer numbers

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down the road, down the bottom.

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So we tend to this, we get this sense

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that people who achieve
in a hierarchical sense,

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their lives will be judged
somehow as better

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having lived than those below.

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We measure sometimes
how high we go or how successful we are

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by how much money we make.

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But these are all the result
of our having limited minds,

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and their having to aggregate
measures of success.

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This choice of measurement

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is actually a big deal;

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in a company, for example,

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if you measure profitability
by return on net assets,

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that's a ratio,

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and sure, you could be innovative,

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develop successful, new products,

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and take that profitability and stick it
into the numerator of the ratio,

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but you can also reduce
the denominator of the ratio

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by outsourcing everything,

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and the ratio doesn't matter

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whether you build it from the top
or subtract from the bottom;

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00:16:10,406 --> 00:16:14,898
if profitability is measured
by return on net assets,

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it causes us to manage it
in a particular way.

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And in a similar way,

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if we follow our professor's
advices from finance,

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and we measure
profitability on innovation

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in terms of internal rate
of return or IRR,

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it's a ratio,

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and sure, you could get the ratio up
by being successful with innovation,

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but you also could get that measure up

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by only investing in short-term projects.

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And it's just the long way of saying,
be careful in how you measure

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profitability in your company.

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So how do you measure

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the success of your life?

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As I mentioned, it's
because we have to aggregate,

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we have this sense
of hierarchy, wealth, and so on.

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But the reason I concluded that God
doesn't employ accounts

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is he has an infinite mind,

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and what that means
is he doesn't have to aggregate up

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above the level of individual people

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in order to have a perfect understanding
of what's going on in this world.

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When I realized that,

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that he doesn't have to aggregate up
above the level of individuals,

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then I realized, "Oh, my goodness!

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When I have my interview
with God at the end of my life,

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he's not going to show me

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how high I went
into anybody's org-chart,

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or how much money I left
behind in the bank when I died,

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but rather he's going to say,
'Oh, Clay, I put you in that circumstance.

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Now, can we talk
about the individual people

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whose lives you help
to become better people,

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because you worked with them,
or they were members of your family,

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or you just met them,
and they needed your help.

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And then Clay,
I stuck you in this situation.

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Let's talk about the individual people
whose lives you blessed

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because you use the talents
I gave you to help them.'"

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And I realized that that's
the way God will measure my life;

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is the individual people
whose lives I blessed.

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I just want to offer that
as the second takeaway

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from at least, what Clay Christensen
is thinking about,

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and that is it's actually
really important

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that you succeed at
what you're succeeding at,

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but that isn't going to be
the measure of your life.

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God doesn't count, he doesn't aggregate;

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he's just going to assess you

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on the basis of how well
you helped other people be better people.

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Well, God bless you,

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I hope that some of these ideas
will be helpful to you

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and that you all will be successful

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in the way that God will measure success.

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Thank you.

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(Applause)