[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.00,0:00:04.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(intro music)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:06.25,0:00:07.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm Geoff Pynn. I teach at
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.50,0:00:09.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Northern Illinois University,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:09.22,0:00:12.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this is an introduction\Nto critical thinking.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.78,0:00:15.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In this lesson, we're gonna\Ntalk about three things.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.91,0:00:20.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First, what is critical thinking?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.24,0:00:23.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Second, what is an argument?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.24,0:00:25.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And third, what's the difference between
Dialogue: 0,0:00:25.06,0:00:27.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,deductive and ampliative arguments?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.21,0:00:31.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so what is critical thinking?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:31.23,0:00:33.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, fundamentally, critical thinking
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.07,0:00:34.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is about making sure that you have
Dialogue: 0,0:00:34.62,0:00:36.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,good reasons for your beliefs.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.90,0:00:38.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What does that mean?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.38,0:00:40.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So suppose that you and your friend
Dialogue: 0,0:00:40.06,0:00:43.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are talking about who's\Ngonna be at tonight's party.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.34,0:00:45.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And she says to you, quite confidently,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.54,0:00:47.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Monty won't be at the party."
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.88,0:00:49.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You're not sure whether\Nor not to believe her,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.61,0:00:51.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so it would be natural\Nfor you to follow up
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.10,0:00:54.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by asking, "Why do you think so?"
Dialogue: 0,0:00:54.25,0:00:55.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And there are a lot of different things
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.37,0:00:57.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that she might say in response.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:57.19,0:00:58.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We're gonna talk about three
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.35,0:01:00.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,possible answers she could give.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.66,0:01:03.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,First, she might say, "I can't stand him,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.00,0:01:04.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I want to have a good time."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.82,0:01:08.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Second, she might say,\N"Well, he's really shy,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:08.31,0:01:10.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and he rarely goes to parties."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.99,0:01:12.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And third, she might say,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.46,0:01:14.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"He's in Beijing, and it's impossible
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.14,0:01:16.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to get here from\NBeijing in an afternoon."
Dialogue: 0,0:01:16.63,0:01:18.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first response that she gives you
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.68,0:01:21.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,does not give you a good reason to believe
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.16,0:01:23.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that Monty won't be at the party.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.32,0:01:25.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The second reason,\Nthough, is a good reason
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.29,0:01:27.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to believe that Monty\Nwon't be at the party.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:27.51,0:01:29.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If he's really shy and\Nrarely goes to parties,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.59,0:01:32.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then it's probable that he\Nwon't be at tonight's party.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.91,0:01:35.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Similarly, the third reason\Nalso gives you a good
Dialogue: 0,0:01:35.42,0:01:38.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reason to believe that\NMonty won't be at the party.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.05,0:01:40.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If he's in Beijing, and\Nit's impossible to get here
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.08,0:01:42.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from Beijing in an afternoon,\Nthen it's guaranteed
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.78,0:01:44.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that he won't be at the party.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.61,0:01:46.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And when you notice things like that,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:46.04,0:01:47.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you distinguish between good
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.41,0:01:49.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and bad reasons for believing something,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.80,0:01:52.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you're exercising your\Ncritical thinking skills.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.18,0:01:55.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So critical thinking is making sure
Dialogue: 0,0:01:55.49,0:01:56.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we have good reasons for our beliefs,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.97,0:01:59.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so one of the essential\Nskills that you learn
Dialogue: 0,0:01:59.39,0:02:01.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you're studying\Ncritical thinking is how
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.06,0:02:03.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to distinguish good reasons\Nfor believing something
Dialogue: 0,0:02:03.77,0:02:06.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from bad reasons for believing something.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:06.59,0:02:07.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, it's worth saying something about
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.93,0:02:10.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how I'm using the term "good" here.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:10.19,0:02:11.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm not using it to indicate anything
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.76,0:02:14.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,having to do with morality or ethics.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.34,0:02:16.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So it's not morally right or morally good
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.82,0:02:19.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to believe something on\Nthe basis of good reasons.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:19.60,0:02:22.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Similarly, it's not morally\Nwrong, or evil, or wicked
Dialogue: 0,0:02:22.29,0:02:25.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to believe something on\Nthe basis of a bad reason.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.46,0:02:27.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Rather, here, what it is to\Nsay that a reason is good
Dialogue: 0,0:02:27.86,0:02:30.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is closely tied to the notion of truth.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.74,0:02:32.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So a good reason for a belief is one
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.34,0:02:34.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that makes it probable, that is, it's one
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.54,0:02:37.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that makes the belief likely to be true.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.40,0:02:39.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The very best reasons for a belief
Dialogue: 0,0:02:39.35,0:02:42.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,make it certain, they guarantee it.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:42.45,0:02:43.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So why does this matter?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.58,0:02:44.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, the reason that critical thinking
Dialogue: 0,0:02:44.92,0:02:47.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is important is because,\Nsince we're rational,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.14,0:02:49.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we want our beliefs to be true.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:49.44,0:02:51.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Rational people want to have true beliefs,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.52,0:02:54.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and they want not to have false beliefs.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.05,0:02:56.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the best way to be\Nrational in this way
Dialogue: 0,0:02:56.76,0:02:58.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is to form beliefs only when you
Dialogue: 0,0:02:58.67,0:03:01.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,find good reasons for them.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.17,0:03:02.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, that leads us to\Nour second question:
Dialogue: 0,0:03:02.88,0:03:05.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What is an argument?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:05.09,0:03:07.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, an argument is a set\Nof statements that together
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.94,0:03:11.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,comprise a reason for a further statement.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.22,0:03:13.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, for example, we can consider one
Dialogue: 0,0:03:13.32,0:03:17.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of your friend's responses\Nbefore as an argument.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.73,0:03:19.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,She's given you two statements,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:19.50,0:03:22.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Monty's really shy" and\N"Monty rarely goes to parties,"
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.54,0:03:24.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which together comprise\Na reason for believing
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.29,0:03:26.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that Monty won't be at the party.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.80,0:03:28.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The statements that are the reason,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.58,0:03:31.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we call the argument's premises.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:31.04,0:03:33.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So "Monty's really shy" is premise one,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.05,0:03:36.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Monty rarely goes to\Nparties" is premise two,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:36.08,0:03:38.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the statement that\Nthose premises give you
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.31,0:03:41.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reason to believe, we call\Nthe argument's conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.78,0:03:44.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A good argument is one\Nin which the premises
Dialogue: 0,0:03:44.72,0:03:47.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,give you a good reason for\Nthe conclusion, that is,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.71,0:03:51.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the premises make the\Nconclusion likely to be true.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.05,0:03:52.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In that case, we say that the argument
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.31,0:03:54.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,supports the conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.88,0:03:57.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Good arguments support their conclusions,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.47,0:04:01.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and bad arguments don't\Nsupport their conclusions.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.03,0:04:02.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So a key part of critical\Nthinking is learning
Dialogue: 0,0:04:02.81,0:04:04.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to evaluate arguments to determine
Dialogue: 0,0:04:04.74,0:04:06.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whether or not they're good or bad,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.68,0:04:08.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that is, whether or not their premises
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.06,0:04:09.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,support their conclusions.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:11.23,0:04:13.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The red argument is the first response
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.65,0:04:15.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that she gave, two premises,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:15.29,0:04:18.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"I can't stand Monty" and "I\Nwant to have a good time."
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.05,0:04:20.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the conclusion is "Monty\Nwon't be at the party."
Dialogue: 0,0:04:20.66,0:04:22.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the third argument,\Nwhich we'll put in purple,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.78,0:04:24.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,consisted also of two premises,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.83,0:04:27.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Monty's in Beijing" and\N"He can't get from Beijing
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.12,0:04:30.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the party in time, so\Nhe won't be at the party."
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.31,0:04:33.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, as I indicated\Nbefore, the first argument
Dialogue: 0,0:04:33.89,0:04:37.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is not good, while the\Npurple argument is good.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:39.76,0:04:42.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And here I can explain a\Nlittle bit more about why.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.27,0:04:45.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you consider what the\Nred argument's premises say,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.82,0:04:47.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that your friend can't stand Monty,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.16,0:04:49.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and she wants to have a good time,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:49.22,0:04:50.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and think about their relationship
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.46,0:04:52.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the conclusion of the argument,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:52.14,0:04:54.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you'll see that those\Nstatements don't make
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.01,0:04:56.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that conclusion any\Nmore likely to be true.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:56.62,0:04:58.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The fact that your\Nfriend can't stand Monty
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.12,0:04:59.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and wants to have a good\Ntime doesn't do anything
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.100,0:05:02.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make it more likely\Nthat Monty won't be there.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.94,0:05:05.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's simply unrelated to the conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.88,0:05:07.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the purple argument,\Nthough, the premises,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.41,0:05:10.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if they're true, they guarantee\Nthe conclusion is true.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.68,0:05:12.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So they make it very probable.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:12.68,0:05:15.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The truth of the premises\Nguarantees the truth
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.02,0:05:17.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the conclusion, and so\Nin the purple argument,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.34,0:05:20.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the premises do support the conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.32,0:05:22.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, it's worth pointing\Nout that the red argument,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:22.00,0:05:24.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,though it's bad as it\Nstands, could be made
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.38,0:05:26.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a good argument with the addition
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.19,0:05:28.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of some background premise.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.26,0:05:29.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So, for example, if you found out
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.76,0:05:31.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that your friend was\Nthe person who decided
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.55,0:05:33.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who was going to be invited to the party,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:33.94,0:05:35.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then the fact that she can't stand Monty
Dialogue: 0,0:05:35.52,0:05:36.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and wants to have a good time
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.75,0:05:38.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,would give you a good reason to believe
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.26,0:05:40.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that Monty won't be at the party,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:40.02,0:05:41.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it would give you reason
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.01,0:05:43.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to believe that she didn't invite him.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:43.54,0:05:46.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But as it stands, the\Nargument is not good.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:46.04,0:05:48.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those two premises\Nconsidered in themselves
Dialogue: 0,0:05:48.18,0:05:49.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,give you no reason to believe
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.29,0:05:51.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that Monty won't be at the party.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.36,0:05:53.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, our last topic is to distinguish
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.91,0:05:56.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,two different types of arguments.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:56.20,0:05:57.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I'm gonna put up here, on the left,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.83,0:05:59.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the orange argument, which is the
Dialogue: 0,0:05:59.35,0:06:00.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,second response that your friend gave,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:00.83,0:06:03.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Monty's really shy" and\N"He rarely goes to parties."
Dialogue: 0,0:06:03.46,0:06:05.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On the right we'll put\Nthe purple argument,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.12,0:06:06.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Monty's in Beijing" and
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.13,0:06:08.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"He can't get from Beijing\Nto the party in time."
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.46,0:06:09.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Both of them have the same conclusion,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:09.77,0:06:11.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Monty won't be at the party."
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.61,0:06:12.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, as I said before, both of these
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.83,0:06:14.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are good arguments, they both do
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.52,0:06:16.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,give you reason to believe the conclusion,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.20,0:06:17.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,i.e., both of them have premises
Dialogue: 0,0:06:17.69,0:06:19.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which support the conclusion,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:19.36,0:06:20.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but there's an important difference
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.67,0:06:23.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,between the two arguments\Nthat I want to point out.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:23.26,0:06:24.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you consider the purple argument,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.65,0:06:27.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and think about what those premises say,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:27.22,0:06:30.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you'll notice that if\Nthose premises are true,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.15,0:06:32.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if Monty's in Beijing,\Nand can't get from Beijing
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.46,0:06:35.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the party in time, then it must be true
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.03,0:06:36.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that Monty won't be at the party.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.82,0:06:40.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Those premises guarantee the conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.62,0:06:42.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In such an argument, where the premises
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.54,0:06:44.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,guarantee the truth of the conclusion,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.18,0:06:46.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we call the argument deductive.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.67,0:06:48.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In a deductive argument,\Ngiven the premises,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:48.76,0:06:51.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the conclusion must be true.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.59,0:06:53.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just thinking about the information
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.28,0:06:54.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the premises in a deductive argument
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.98,0:06:57.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,gives you all you need\Nto deduce the conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.52,0:07:00.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you look at the\Norange argument, though,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.85,0:07:03.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you'll notice that that's not the case.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.15,0:07:05.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the orange argument,\Neven if those premises
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.29,0:07:08.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are true, the conclusion\Nmight still be false.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.72,0:07:10.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Even given that Monty is really shy
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.27,0:07:12.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and rarely goes to parties,\Nit's still possible
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.59,0:07:14.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that he'll get over\Nhis shyness and suspend
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.67,0:07:16.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,his policy of rarely going to parties,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.60,0:07:18.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and unexpectedly show up.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.38,0:07:20.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's unlikely, but it's possible.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.42,0:07:22.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the truth of the premises\Nin the orange argument
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.60,0:07:25.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,does not guarantee the\Ntruth of the conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.54,0:07:28.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Arguments like this, we call ampliative.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.15,0:07:31.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In an ampliative argument,\Nthe truth of the premises
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.55,0:07:35.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,makes the conclusion probable\Nbut doesn't guarantee it.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.20,0:07:37.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, as I said, both of\Nthe arguments are good.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.16,0:07:38.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Ampliative arguments can often be
Dialogue: 0,0:07:38.52,0:07:41.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,very good arguments,\Nthey're just not deductive.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.84,0:07:44.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The premises don't guarantee\Nthe truth of the conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.85,0:07:46.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, when you're evaluating an argument,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:46.31,0:07:48.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it can be important to know whether or not
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.16,0:07:50.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the argument is supposed to be deductive
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.07,0:07:52.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or supposed to be merely ampliative.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.51,0:07:55.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If an argument is\Nsupposed to be deductive,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.22,0:07:56.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but careful consideration of the argument
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.92,0:07:58.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,reveals that in fact the premises
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.85,0:08:01.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't guarantee the\Ntruth of the conclusion,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:01.29,0:08:02.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if the conclusion could\Nbe false even though
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.70,0:08:05.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the premises are true,\Nthat's often a good reason
Dialogue: 0,0:08:05.19,0:08:08.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to reject the argument as a bad argument.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:08.36,0:08:09.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Whereas in an ampliative argument,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.87,0:08:11.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to notice that the truth of the premises
Dialogue: 0,0:08:11.57,0:08:13.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,doesn't guarantee the\Ntruth of the conclusion,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:13.73,0:08:16.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is simply to notice that\Nit's an ampliative argument.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.97,0:08:18.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you were to object\Nto the orange argument
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.97,0:08:21.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by pointing out that,\Nstill, the conclusion
Dialogue: 0,0:08:21.30,0:08:24.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could be false, you'd\Nreally be missing the point.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.25,0:08:26.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In an ampliative argument,\Nit's taken for granted
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.73,0:08:30.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the conclusion is not\Nguaranteed by the premises.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.07,0:08:32.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Rather, what an ampliative\Nargument is doing
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.31,0:08:33.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is giving you reasons to think
Dialogue: 0,0:08:33.42,0:08:35.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the conclusion is probable.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.66,0:08:38.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So knowing what type of\Nargument an argument is
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.18,0:08:40.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is essential to knowing which tools to use
Dialogue: 0,0:08:40.69,0:08:43.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to evaluate whether or\Nnot it's a good argument.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:43.24,0:08:44.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And we'll talk quite a bit more
Dialogue: 0,0:08:44.38,0:08:46.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about different tools for\Nevaluating both ampliative
Dialogue: 0,0:08:46.82,0:08:49.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and deductive arguments in future lessons.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.13,0:08:53.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so summing up this lesson.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.31,0:08:54.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Critical thinking is making sure
Dialogue: 0,0:08:54.63,0:08:56.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we have good reasons for our beliefs,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.86,0:08:58.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where we understand a good reason as one
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.54,0:09:02.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that makes the belief\Nprobable, or likely to be true.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.32,0:09:04.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,An argument is a set of statements,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:04.19,0:09:06.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which we call premises,\Nthat together comprise
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.31,0:09:08.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a reason for another statement,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:08.01,0:09:10.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which we call the argument's conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:10.51,0:09:12.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And in a good argument, the premises
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.16,0:09:14.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,support their conclusions, that is,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.26,0:09:16.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the premises give you a\Ngood reason for believing
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.89,0:09:19.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the conclusion, because\Nthey make it probable.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.98,0:09:23.55,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A deductive argument is\None where the conclusion
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.55,0:09:26.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is guaranteed by the premises.\NIf the premises are true,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.58,0:09:29.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then the conclusion must be true.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.34,0:09:31.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,An ampliative argument\Nis one where the premises
Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.90,0:09:33.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,don't guarantee the conclusion,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.48,0:09:35.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they do make it probable.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.25,0:09:36.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So they can still provide you
Dialogue: 0,0:09:36.41,0:09:39.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with good reason for\Nbelieving the conclusion.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.53,0:09:42.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Okay, so that ends this\Nintroductory lesson.