[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.34,0:00:18.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's a startling fact:
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.20,0:00:21.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the 45 years since the introduction\Nof the automated teller machine,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:21.94,0:00:24.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,those vending machines that dispense cash,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.82,0:00:27.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the number of human bank tellers\Nemployed in the United States
Dialogue: 0,0:00:28.02,0:00:29.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has roughly doubled,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.30,0:00:32.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from about a quarter of a million\Nto a half a million.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.62,0:00:35.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A quarter of a million in 1970\Nto about a half a million today,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.68,0:00:39.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with 100,000 added since the year 2000.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:39.94,0:00:42.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These facts, revealed in a recent book
Dialogue: 0,0:00:42.38,0:00:45.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by Boston University\Neconomist James Bessen,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:45.54,0:00:47.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,raise an intriguing question:
Dialogue: 0,0:00:47.74,0:00:49.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what are all those tellers doing,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:49.66,0:00:53.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and why hasn't automation\Neliminated their employment by now?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:53.70,0:00:55.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you think about it,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.06,0:00:58.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,many of the great inventions\Nof the last 200 years
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.22,0:01:01.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were designed to replace human labor.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.82,0:01:03.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Tractors were developed
Dialogue: 0,0:01:03.62,0:01:07.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to substitute mechanical power\Nfor human physical toil.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.98,0:01:10.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Assembly lines were engineered
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.34,0:01:13.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to replace inconsistent human handiwork
Dialogue: 0,0:01:13.70,0:01:15.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with machine perfection.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:15.66,0:01:18.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Computers were programmed to swap out
Dialogue: 0,0:01:18.90,0:01:21.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,error-prone, inconsistent\Nhuman calculation
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.58,0:01:23.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with digital perfection.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:23.86,0:01:26.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These inventions have worked.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:26.06,0:01:28.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We no longer dig ditches by hand,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:28.14,0:01:30.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pound tools out of wrought iron
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.22,0:01:32.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or do bookkeeping using actual books.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:33.34,0:01:39.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And yet, the fraction of US adults\Nemployed in the labor market
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.20,0:01:42.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is higher now in 2016
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.08,0:01:44.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than it was 125 years ago, in 1890,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:44.94,0:01:47.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's risen in just about every decade
Dialogue: 0,0:01:47.98,0:01:50.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the intervening 125 years.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.86,0:01:52.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This poses a paradox.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:53.06,0:01:56.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our machines increasingly\Ndo our work for us.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.14,0:02:00.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why doesn't this make our labor redundant\Nand our skills obsolete?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:00.30,0:02:03.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why are there still so many jobs?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.02,0:02:05.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:02:05.78,0:02:08.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to try to answer\Nthat question tonight,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.14,0:02:11.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and along the way, I'm going to tell you\Nwhat this means for the future of work
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.90,0:02:16.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the challenges that automation\Ndoes and does not pose
Dialogue: 0,0:02:16.10,0:02:17.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for our society.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.82,0:02:20.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why are there so many jobs?
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.98,0:02:25.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are actually two fundamental\Neconomic principles at stake.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.38,0:02:28.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One has to do with human genius
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.10,0:02:29.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and creativity.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:29.54,0:02:32.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The other has to do\Nwith human insatiability,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.42,0:02:33.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or greed, if you like.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:34.02,0:02:36.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I'm going to call the first of these\Nthe O-ring principle,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.78,0:02:38.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it determines\Nthe type of work that we do.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.98,0:02:41.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The second principle\Nis the never-get-enough principle,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.62,0:02:45.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it determines how many jobs\Nthere actually are.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.74,0:02:48.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let's start with the O-ring.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:48.70,0:02:51.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ATMs, automated teller machines,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.50,0:02:54.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,had two countervailing effects\Non bank teller employment.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.86,0:02:57.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As you would expect,\Nthey replaced a lot of teller tasks.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.58,0:03:00.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The number of tellers per branch\Nfell by about a third.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:01.14,0:03:04.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But banks quickly discovered that it\Nalso was cheaper to open new branches,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.98,0:03:08.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the number of bank branches\Nincreased by about 40 percent
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.14,0:03:09.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the same time period.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:09.66,0:03:13.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The net result was more branches\Nand more tellers.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:14.34,0:03:17.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But those tellers were doing\Nsomewhat different work.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.78,0:03:21.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As their routine,\Ncash-handling tasks receded,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.46,0:03:23.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they became less like checkout clerks
Dialogue: 0,0:03:23.62,0:03:25.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and more like salespeople,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:25.46,0:03:27.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,forging relationships with customers,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.54,0:03:28.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,solving problems
Dialogue: 0,0:03:28.78,0:03:32.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and introducing them to new products\Nlike credit cards, loans and investments:
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.02,0:03:36.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more tellers doing\Na more cognitively demanding job.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.74,0:03:39.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's a general principle here.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:40.02,0:03:41.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most of the work that we do
Dialogue: 0,0:03:41.74,0:03:45.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,requires a multiplicity of skills,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.06,0:03:49.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and brains and brawn,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:49.26,0:03:52.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,technical expertise and intuitive mastery,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:52.90,0:03:55.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,perspiration and inspiration\Nin the words of Thomas Edison.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.38,0:03:59.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In general, automating\Nsome subset of those tasks
Dialogue: 0,0:03:59.66,0:04:01.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,doesn't make the other ones unnecessary.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.90,0:04:04.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In fact, it makes them more important.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:05.98,0:04:07.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It increases their economic value.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:07.98,0:04:09.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Let me give you a stark example.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.02,0:04:13.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 1986, the space shuttle Challenger
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.86,0:04:16.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,exploded and crashed back down to Earth
Dialogue: 0,0:04:16.18,0:04:18.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,less than two minutes after takeoff.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.62,0:04:21.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The cause of that crash, it turned out,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.74,0:04:25.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was an inexpensive rubber O-ring\Nin the booster rocket
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.30,0:04:28.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that had frozen on the launchpad\Nthe night before
Dialogue: 0,0:04:28.18,0:04:31.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and failed catastrophically\Nmoments after takeoff.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.58,0:04:34.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In this multibillion dollar enterprise
Dialogue: 0,0:04:34.42,0:04:36.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that simple rubber O-ring
Dialogue: 0,0:04:36.14,0:04:38.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,made the difference\Nbetween mission success
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.74,0:04:41.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the calamitous death\Nof seven astronauts.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:42.50,0:04:46.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,An ingenious metaphor\Nfor this tragic setting
Dialogue: 0,0:04:46.26,0:04:48.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is the O-ring production function,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.50,0:04:50.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,named by Harvard economist Michael Kremer
Dialogue: 0,0:04:51.02,0:04:53.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,after the Challenger disaster.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:53.06,0:04:55.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The O-ring production function\Nconceives of the work
Dialogue: 0,0:04:55.66,0:04:57.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as a series of interlocking steps,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:58.02,0:04:59.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,links in a chain.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.30,0:05:02.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every one of those links must hold\Nfor the mission to succeed.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:03.02,0:05:05.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If any of them fails,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.18,0:05:08.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the mission, or the product\Nor the service,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:08.50,0:05:09.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,comes crashing down.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.46,0:05:15.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This precarious situation\Nhas a surprisingly positive implication,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:15.42,0:05:17.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is that improvements
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.34,0:05:20.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the reliability\Nof any one link in the chain
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.34,0:05:24.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,increases the value\Nof improving any of the other links.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:24.14,0:05:29.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Concretely, if most of the links\Nare brittle and prone to breakage,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:29.14,0:05:31.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the fact that your link\Nis not that reliable
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.62,0:05:32.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is not that important.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.90,0:05:34.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Probably something else will break anyway.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:34.92,0:05:38.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But as all the other links\Nbecome robust and reliable,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:38.94,0:05:42.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the importance of your link\Nbecomes more essential.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.46,0:05:44.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the limit, everything depends upon it.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.54,0:05:49.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The reason the O-ring was critical\Nto space shuttle Challenger
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.10,0:05:51.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is because everything else\Nworked perfectly.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.38,0:05:54.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If the Challenger were\Nkind of the space era equivalent
Dialogue: 0,0:05:54.98,0:05:57.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of Microsoft Windows 2000 --
Dialogue: 0,0:05:57.54,0:05:59.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:05:59.66,0:06:02.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the reliability of the O-ring\Nwouldn't have mattered
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.14,0:06:03.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the machine would have crashed.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:04.02,0:06:05.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.86,0:06:08.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Here's the broader point.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.46,0:06:12.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In much of the work that we do,\Nwe are the O-rings.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.30,0:06:15.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Yes, ATMs could do\Ncertain cash-handling tasks
Dialogue: 0,0:06:15.86,0:06:18.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,faster and better than tellers,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:18.90,0:06:20.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but that didn't make tellers superfluous.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.98,0:06:24.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It increased the importance\Nof their problem-solving skills
Dialogue: 0,0:06:24.30,0:06:26.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and their relationships with customers.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.94,0:06:30.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The same principle applies\Nif we're building a building,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.26,0:06:32.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we're diagnosing\Nand caring for a patient,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.82,0:06:35.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or if we are teaching a class
Dialogue: 0,0:06:35.98,0:06:38.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to a roomful of high schoolers.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.46,0:06:40.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As our tools improve,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:40.86,0:06:42.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,technology magnifies our leverage
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.98,0:06:46.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and increases the importance\Nof our expertise
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.90,0:06:49.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and our judgment and our creativity.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.90,0:06:52.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And that brings me\Nto the second principle:
Dialogue: 0,0:06:53.06,0:06:54.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,never get enough.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.18,0:06:57.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You may be thinking, OK, O-ring, got it,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.62,0:07:00.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that says the jobs that people do\Nwill be important.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:00.74,0:07:03.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They can't be done by machines,\Nbut they still need to be done.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.74,0:07:06.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that doesn't tell me\Nhow many jobs there will need to be.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:06.66,0:07:09.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If you think about it,\Nisn't it kind of self-evident
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.14,0:07:11.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that once we get sufficiently\Nproductive at something,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:11.70,0:07:13.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we've basically\Nworked our way out of a job?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:13.82,0:07:16.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In 1900, 40 percent of all US employment
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.62,0:07:17.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was on farms.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:17.90,0:07:20.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Today, it's less than two percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.18,0:07:22.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why are there so few farmers today?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:22.38,0:07:24.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not because we're eating less.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.26,0:07:26.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.94,0:07:29.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A century of productivity\Ngrowth in farming
Dialogue: 0,0:07:29.70,0:07:31.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,means that now,\Na couple of million farmers
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.90,0:07:34.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,can feed a nation of 320 million.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:34.66,0:07:36.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's amazing progress,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.34,0:07:40.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it also means there are\Nonly so many O-ring jobs left in farming.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.50,0:07:43.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So clearly, technology can eliminate jobs.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:43.54,0:07:45.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Farming is only one example.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:45.30,0:07:46.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There are many others like it.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.34,0:07:52.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what's true about a single product\Nor service or industry
Dialogue: 0,0:07:52.34,0:07:55.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has never been true\Nabout the economy as a whole.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:55.14,0:07:57.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many of the industries\Nin which we now work --
Dialogue: 0,0:07:57.66,0:07:59.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,health and medicine,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.82,0:08:02.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,finance and insurance,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.06,0:08:03.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,electronics and computing --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:04.62,0:08:07.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were tiny or barely existent\Na century ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:07.38,0:08:10.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many of the products\Nthat we spend a lot of our money on --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:10.22,0:08:12.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,air conditioners, sport utility vehicles,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.38,0:08:14.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,computers and mobile devices --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:14.10,0:08:15.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were unattainably expensive,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.78,0:08:18.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or just hadn't been invented\Na century ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.82,0:08:23.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,As automation frees our time,\Nincreases the scope of what is possible,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:23.82,0:08:27.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we invent new products,\Nnew ideas, new services
Dialogue: 0,0:08:27.06,0:08:28.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that command our attention,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.66,0:08:30.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,occupy our time
Dialogue: 0,0:08:30.22,0:08:31.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and spur consumption.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:32.66,0:08:35.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You may think some\Nof these things are frivolous --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:35.90,0:08:38.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,extreme yoga, adventure tourism,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:38.70,0:08:39.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Pokemon GO --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.98,0:08:41.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I might agree with you.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:41.88,0:08:45.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But people desire these things,\Nand they're willing to work hard for them.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.38,0:08:47.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The average worker in 2015
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.58,0:08:51.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,wanting to attain\Nthe average living standard in 1915
Dialogue: 0,0:08:51.86,0:08:55.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could do so by working\Njust 17 weeks a year,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.22,0:08:56.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one third of the time.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:57.14,0:08:59.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But most people don't choose to do that.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.34,0:09:01.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They are willing to work hard
Dialogue: 0,0:09:01.06,0:09:04.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to harvest the technological bounty\Nthat is available to them.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:05.38,0:09:09.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Material abundance has never\Neliminated perceived scarcity.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.50,0:09:12.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the words of economist\NThorstein Veblen,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.10,0:09:14.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,invention is the mother of necessity.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.42,0:09:17.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now ...
Dialogue: 0,0:09:18.30,0:09:20.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if you accept these two principles,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.18,0:09:23.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the O-ring principle\Nand the never-get-enough principle,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:23.10,0:09:24.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then you agree with me.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.46,0:09:25.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There will be jobs.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.46,0:09:28.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Does that mean there's\Nnothing to worry about?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.66,0:09:31.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Automation, employment, robots and jobs --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.46,0:09:33.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it'll all take care of itself?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:34.02,0:09:35.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,No.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.26,0:09:37.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is not my argument.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:37.34,0:09:39.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Automation creates wealth
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.90,0:09:42.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by allowing us to do\Nmore work in less time.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.50,0:09:44.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There is no economic law
Dialogue: 0,0:09:44.10,0:09:46.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that says that we\Nwill use that wealth well,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.90,0:09:48.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that is worth worrying about.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:49.70,0:09:51.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Consider two countries,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:51.54,0:09:53.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Norway and Saudi Arabia.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.70,0:09:55.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Both oil-rich nations,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:55.30,0:09:58.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's like they have money\Nspurting out of a hole in the ground.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:58.90,0:10:00.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:10:00.46,0:10:05.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But they haven't used that wealth\Nequally well to foster human prosperity,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.70,0:10:06.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,human prospering.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.34,0:10:10.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Norway is a thriving democracy.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:10.10,0:10:13.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By and large, its citizens\Nwork and play well together.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:13.78,0:10:16.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's typically numbered\Nbetween first and fourth
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.82,0:10:19.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in rankings of national happiness.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:19.58,0:10:22.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Saudi Arabia is an absolute monarchy
Dialogue: 0,0:10:22.26,0:10:25.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in which many citizens\Nlack a path for personal advancement.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:25.90,0:10:29.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's typically ranked 35th\Namong nations in happiness,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:29.42,0:10:31.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is low for such a wealthy nation.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:31.54,0:10:32.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Just by way of comparison,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.90,0:10:35.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the US is typically ranked\Naround 12th or 13th.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:36.30,0:10:38.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The difference between these two countries
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.42,0:10:39.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is not their wealth
Dialogue: 0,0:10:39.70,0:10:41.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's not their technology.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.46,0:10:42.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's their institutions.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:43.46,0:10:46.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Norway has invested to build a society
Dialogue: 0,0:10:46.66,0:10:49.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with opportunity and economic mobility.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:50.02,0:10:52.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Saudi Arabia has raised living standards
Dialogue: 0,0:10:52.22,0:10:55.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,while frustrating\Nmany other human strivings.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:55.50,0:10:58.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Two countries, both wealthy,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:58.30,0:11:00.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not equally well off.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.78,0:11:05.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this brings me\Nto the challenge that we face today,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:05.14,0:11:07.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the challenge that\Nautomation poses for us.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:07.30,0:11:09.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The challenge is not\Nthat we're running out of work.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:09.78,0:11:11.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The US has added 14 million jobs
Dialogue: 0,0:11:11.74,0:11:13.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,since the depths of the Great Recession.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.90,0:11:16.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The challenge is that many of those jobs
Dialogue: 0,0:11:16.46,0:11:17.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are not good jobs,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.78,0:11:20.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and many citizens\Ncannot qualify for the good jobs
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.90,0:11:22.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that are being created.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:22.74,0:11:26.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Employment growth in the United States\Nand in much of the developed world
Dialogue: 0,0:11:26.26,0:11:27.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,looks something like a barbell
Dialogue: 0,0:11:27.74,0:11:31.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with increasing poundage\Non either end of the bar.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.14,0:11:32.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On the one hand,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.38,0:11:35.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you have high-education, high-wage jobs
Dialogue: 0,0:11:35.22,0:11:38.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like doctors and nurses,\Nprogrammers and engineers,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:38.82,0:11:40.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,marketing and sales managers.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:40.58,0:11:43.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Employment is robust in these jobs,\Nemployment growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:43.62,0:11:47.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Similarly, employment growth\Nis robust in many low-skill,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:47.66,0:11:50.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,low-education jobs like food service,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.74,0:11:52.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,cleaning, security,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:53.02,0:11:54.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,home health aids.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.98,0:11:58.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Simultaneously, employment is shrinking
Dialogue: 0,0:11:58.10,0:12:02.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in many middle-education,\Nmiddle-wage, middle-class jobs,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.18,0:12:05.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,like blue-collar production\Nand operative positions
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.02,0:12:08.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and white-collar\Nclerical and sales positions.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:09.02,0:12:11.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The reasons behind this contracting middle
Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.30,0:12:12.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are not mysterious.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:12.54,0:12:14.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many of those middle-skill jobs
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.54,0:12:17.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,use well-understood rules and procedures
Dialogue: 0,0:12:17.06,0:12:20.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that can increasingly\Nbe codified in software
Dialogue: 0,0:12:20.18,0:12:22.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and executed by computers.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:23.10,0:12:26.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The challenge that\Nthis phenomenon creates,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:26.50,0:12:29.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,what economists call\Nemployment polarization,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:29.06,0:12:31.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that it knocks out rungs\Nin the economic ladder,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:31.70,0:12:33.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,shrinks the size of the middle class
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.54,0:12:36.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and threatens to make us\Na more stratified society.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:36.70,0:12:40.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On the one hand, a set of highly paid,\Nhighly educated professionals
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.78,0:12:42.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,doing interesting work,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:42.22,0:12:45.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on the other, a large number\Nof citizens in low-paid jobs
Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.66,0:12:51.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whose primary responsibility is to see\Nto the comfort and health of the affluent.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:51.34,0:12:53.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is not my vision of progress,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.70,0:12:55.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I doubt that it is yours.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:56.34,0:12:58.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But here is some encouraging news.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:58.38,0:13:03.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have faced equally momentous\Neconomic transformations in the past,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:03.26,0:13:05.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we have come\Nthrough them successfully.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:05.98,0:13:10.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the late 1800s and early 1900s,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.94,0:13:15.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when automation was eliminating\Nvast numbers of agricultural jobs --
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.50,0:13:17.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,remember that tractor? --
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.86,0:13:20.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the farm states faced a threat\Nof mass unemployment,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:20.58,0:13:24.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a generation of youth\Nno longer needed on the farm
Dialogue: 0,0:13:24.42,0:13:26.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but not prepared for industry.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:26.98,0:13:28.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Rising to this challenge,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.58,0:13:30.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they took the radical step
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.10,0:13:32.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of requiring that\Ntheir entire youth population
Dialogue: 0,0:13:32.94,0:13:35.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,remain in school\Nand continue their education
Dialogue: 0,0:13:35.82,0:13:37.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the ripe old age of 16.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:38.50,0:13:40.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was called the high school movement,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:40.50,0:13:43.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it was a radically\Nexpensive thing to do.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.34,0:13:45.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not only did they have\Nto invest in the schools,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:45.62,0:13:48.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but those kids couldn't work\Nat their jobs.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.34,0:13:51.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It also turned out to be\None of the best investments
Dialogue: 0,0:13:51.66,0:13:53.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the US made in the 20th century.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:53.90,0:13:56.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It gave us the most skilled,\Nthe most flexible
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.26,0:13:58.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the most productive\Nworkforce in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:58.98,0:14:03.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,To see how well this worked,\Nimagine taking the labor force of 1899
Dialogue: 0,0:14:03.54,0:14:05.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and bringing them into the present.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.78,0:14:08.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Despite their strong backs\Nand good characters,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:08.74,0:14:12.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,many of them would lack\Nthe basic literacy and numeracy skills
Dialogue: 0,0:14:12.54,0:14:15.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to do all but the most mundane jobs.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.50,0:14:17.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many of them would be unemployable.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:18.74,0:14:22.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What this example highlights\Nis the primacy of our institutions,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:22.50,0:14:24.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,most especially our schools,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:24.30,0:14:26.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in allowing us to reap the harvest
Dialogue: 0,0:14:26.86,0:14:29.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of our technological prosperity.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:29.18,0:14:31.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's foolish to say\Nthere's nothing to worry about.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.62,0:14:33.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Clearly we can get this wrong.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:34.54,0:14:38.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If the US had not invested\Nin its schools and in its skills
Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.06,0:14:40.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a century ago with\Nthe high school movement,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:40.34,0:14:41.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we would be a less prosperous,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:42.02,0:14:45.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a less mobile and probably\Na lot less happy society.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.66,0:14:48.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's equally foolish\Nto say that our fates are sealed.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:48.42,0:14:50.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's not decided by the machines.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:50.14,0:14:51.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not even decided by the market.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:51.90,0:14:54.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's decided by us\Nand by our institutions.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.26,0:14:57.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, I started this talk with a paradox.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:57.86,0:15:00.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our machines increasingly\Ndo our work for us.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.54,0:15:02.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why doesn't that make\Nour labor superfluous,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:02.82,0:15:04.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,our skills redundant?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:04.06,0:15:07.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Isn't it obvious that the road\Nto our economic and social hell
Dialogue: 0,0:15:07.50,0:15:09.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is paved with our own great inventions?
Dialogue: 0,0:15:10.94,0:15:15.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,History has repeatedly offered\Nan answer to that paradox.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:15.14,0:15:18.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The first part of the answer\Nis that technology magnifies our leverage,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:18.78,0:15:21.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,increases the importance, the added value
Dialogue: 0,0:15:21.42,0:15:24.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of our expertise,\Nour judgment and our creativity.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:24.98,0:15:26.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's the O-ring.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:26.78,0:15:29.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The second part of the answer\Nis our endless inventiveness
Dialogue: 0,0:15:29.54,0:15:30.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and bottomless desires
Dialogue: 0,0:15:31.02,0:15:33.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,means that we never get enough,\Nnever get enough.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.38,0:15:35.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,There's always new work to do.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.86,0:15:40.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Adjusting to the rapid pace\Nof technological change
Dialogue: 0,0:15:40.22,0:15:41.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,creates real challenges,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:41.70,0:15:44.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,seen most clearly\Nin our polarized labor market
Dialogue: 0,0:15:44.70,0:15:47.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the threat that it poses\Nto economic mobility.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:48.22,0:15:50.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Rising to this challenge is not automatic.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:51.30,0:15:52.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not costless.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:52.82,0:15:54.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's not easy.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:54.26,0:15:55.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it is feasible.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:56.02,0:15:57.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And here is some encouraging news.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:57.86,0:15:59.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because of our amazing productivity,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:00.02,0:16:01.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're rich.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:01.30,0:16:04.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of course we can afford\Nto invest in ourselves and in our children
Dialogue: 0,0:16:04.46,0:16:07.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as America did a hundred years ago\Nwith the high school movement.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:07.82,0:16:10.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Arguably, we can't afford not to.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:11.02,0:16:12.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, you may be thinking,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:12.82,0:16:15.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Professor Autor has told us\Na heartwarming tale
Dialogue: 0,0:16:15.70,0:16:17.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,about the distant past,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:17.50,0:16:18.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the recent past,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.90,0:16:22.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,maybe the present,\Nbut probably not the future.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:22.22,0:16:26.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because everybody knows\Nthat this time is different.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:26.18,0:16:28.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Right? Is this time different?
Dialogue: 0,0:16:29.02,0:16:30.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of course this time is different.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:30.94,0:16:32.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every time is different.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:32.66,0:16:36.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,On numerous occasions\Nin the last 200 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:36.30,0:16:39.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,scholars and activists\Nhave raised the alarm
Dialogue: 0,0:16:39.10,0:16:42.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we are running out of work\Nand making ourselves obsolete:
Dialogue: 0,0:16:42.66,0:16:47.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for example, the Luddites\Nin the early 1800s;
Dialogue: 0,0:16:47.30,0:16:50.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,US Secretary of Labor James Davis
Dialogue: 0,0:16:50.26,0:16:52.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the mid-1920s;
Dialogue: 0,0:16:52.70,0:16:57.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nobel Prize-winning economist\NWassily Leontief in 1982;
Dialogue: 0,0:16:57.90,0:17:01.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and of course, many scholars,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:01.18,0:17:03.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,pundits, technologists
Dialogue: 0,0:17:03.34,0:17:05.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and media figures today.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:06.50,0:17:09.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These predictions strike me as arrogant.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:10.70,0:17:13.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These self-proclaimed oracles\Nare in effect saying,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:13.42,0:17:16.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"If I can't think of what people\Nwill do for work in the future,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:16.86,0:17:19.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,then you, me and our kids
Dialogue: 0,0:17:19.78,0:17:21.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,aren't going to think of it either."
Dialogue: 0,0:17:22.66,0:17:24.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I don't have the guts
Dialogue: 0,0:17:24.62,0:17:27.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to take that bet against human ingenuity.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:27.82,0:17:30.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Look, I can't tell you\Nwhat people are going to do for work
Dialogue: 0,0:17:30.82,0:17:32.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a hundred years from now.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:32.74,0:17:35.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But the future doesn't hinge\Non my imagination.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:36.18,0:17:39.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If I were a farmer in Iowa\Nin the year 1900,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:39.98,0:17:43.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and an economist from the 21st century\Nteleported down to my field
Dialogue: 0,0:17:43.54,0:17:46.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and said, "Hey, guess what, farmer Autor,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:46.90,0:17:48.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in the next hundred years,
Dialogue: 0,0:17:48.46,0:17:52.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,agricultural employment is going to fall\Nfrom 40 percent of all jobs
Dialogue: 0,0:17:52.26,0:17:53.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to two percent
Dialogue: 0,0:17:53.50,0:17:55.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,purely due to rising productivity.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:56.30,0:17:59.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What do you think the other\N38 percent of workers are going to do?"
Dialogue: 0,0:18:00.30,0:18:03.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I would not have said, "Oh, we got this.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:03.14,0:18:05.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We'll do app development,\Nradiological medicine,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:06.02,0:18:08.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,yoga instruction, Bitmoji."
Dialogue: 0,0:18:09.02,0:18:10.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:18:10.58,0:18:11.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I wouldn't have had a clue.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:12.74,0:18:15.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But I hope I would have had\Nthe wisdom to say,
Dialogue: 0,0:18:15.26,0:18:19.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Wow, a 95 percent reduction\Nin farm employment
Dialogue: 0,0:18:19.30,0:18:21.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with no shortage of food.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:21.46,0:18:23.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's an amazing amount of progress.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:23.90,0:18:27.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I hope that humanity\Nfinds something remarkable to do
Dialogue: 0,0:18:27.30,0:18:29.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with all of that prosperity."
Dialogue: 0,0:18:30.02,0:18:33.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And by and large, I would say that it has.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:34.86,0:18:36.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you very much.
Dialogue: 0,0:18:36.14,0:18:41.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)