1
00:00:00,767 --> 00:00:04,585
When I was a kid, I was
the quintessential nerd.

2
00:00:05,773 --> 00:00:07,633
I think some of you were too.

3
00:00:07,633 --> 00:00:09,160
(Laughter)

4
00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:12,275
And you sir, who laughed the loudest,
you probably still are.

5
00:00:12,275 --> 00:00:14,455
(Laughter)

6
00:00:14,455 --> 00:00:16,056
I grew up in a small town

7
00:00:16,056 --> 00:00:17,902
in the dusty plains of north Texas,

8
00:00:17,902 --> 00:00:21,078
the son of a sheriff who was
the son of a pastor.

9
00:00:21,078 --> 00:00:23,647
Getting into trouble was not an option.

10
00:00:23,647 --> 00:00:28,048
And so I started reading
calculus books for fun.

11
00:00:28,048 --> 00:00:29,202
(Laughter)

12
00:00:29,202 --> 00:00:30,872
You did too.

13
00:00:30,872 --> 00:00:34,560
That led me to building a laser
and a computer and model rockets,

14
00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:36,998
and that led me to making rocket fuel

15
00:00:36,998 --> 00:00:38,344
in my bedroom.

16
00:00:38,344 --> 00:00:41,683
Now, in scientific terms,

17
00:00:41,683 --> 00:00:45,014
we call this a very bad idea.

18
00:00:45,014 --> 00:00:46,375
(Laughter)

19
00:00:46,375 --> 00:00:48,063
Around that same time,

20
00:00:48,063 --> 00:00:51,078
Stanley Kubrick's "2001: A Space Odyssey"
came to the theaters,

21
00:00:51,078 --> 00:00:53,850
and my life was forever changed.

22
00:00:53,850 --> 00:00:56,368
I loved everything about that movie,

23
00:00:56,368 --> 00:00:58,972
especially the HAL 9000.

24
00:00:58,972 --> 00:01:01,244
Now, HAL was a sentient computer

25
00:01:01,244 --> 00:01:04,009
designed to guide the Discovery spacecraft

26
00:01:04,009 --> 00:01:06,314
from the Earth to Jupiter.

27
00:01:06,314 --> 00:01:08,314
HAL was also a flawed character,

28
00:01:08,314 --> 00:01:13,195
for in the end he chose
to value the mission over human life.

29
00:01:13,195 --> 00:01:14,947
Now, HAL was a fictional character,

30
00:01:14,947 --> 00:01:17,827
but nonetheless he speaks to our fears,

31
00:01:17,827 --> 00:01:20,014
our fears of being subjugated

32
00:01:20,014 --> 00:01:22,795
by some unfeeling, artificial intelligence

33
00:01:22,795 --> 00:01:25,869
who is indifferent to our humanity.

34
00:01:25,869 --> 00:01:28,657
I believe that such fears are unfounded.

35
00:01:28,657 --> 00:01:31,806
Indeed, we stand at a remarkable time

36
00:01:31,806 --> 00:01:32,895
in human history,

37
00:01:32,895 --> 00:01:38,051
where, driven by refusal to accept
the limits of our bodies and our minds,

38
00:01:38,051 --> 00:01:40,081
we are building machines

39
00:01:40,081 --> 00:01:43,300
of exquisite, beautiful
complexity and grace

40
00:01:43,300 --> 00:01:45,483
that will extend the human experience

41
00:01:45,483 --> 00:01:48,005
in ways beyond our imagining.

42
00:01:48,005 --> 00:01:50,615
After a career that led me
from the Air Force Academy

43
00:01:50,615 --> 00:01:52,455
to Space Command to now,

44
00:01:52,455 --> 00:01:54,339
I became a systems engineer,

45
00:01:54,339 --> 00:01:56,878
and recently I was drawn
into an engineering problem

46
00:01:56,878 --> 00:01:59,437
associated with NASA's mission to Mars.

47
00:01:59,437 --> 00:02:02,121
Now, in space flights to the Moon,

48
00:02:02,121 --> 00:02:04,286
we can rely upon mission control

49
00:02:04,286 --> 00:02:07,263
in Houston to watch over
all aspects of the flight.

50
00:02:07,263 --> 00:02:10,648
However, Mars is 200 times further away,

51
00:02:10,648 --> 00:02:13,830
and as a result it takes on average

52
00:02:13,830 --> 00:02:17,295
13 minutes for a signal to travel
from the Earth to Mars.

53
00:02:17,295 --> 00:02:20,884
If there's trouble,
there's not enough time.

54
00:02:20,884 --> 00:02:23,531
And so a reasonable engineering solution

55
00:02:23,531 --> 00:02:26,164
calls for us to put mission control

56
00:02:26,164 --> 00:02:29,135
inside the walls of the Orion Spacecraft.

57
00:02:29,135 --> 00:02:31,386
Another fascinating idea

58
00:02:31,386 --> 00:02:32,138
in the mission profile

59
00:02:32,138 --> 00:02:33,827
places humanoid robots
on the surface of Mars

60
00:02:33,827 --> 00:02:36,849
before the humans themselves arrive,

61
00:02:36,849 --> 00:02:38,886
first to build facilities

62
00:02:38,886 --> 00:02:42,786
and later to serve as collaborative
members of the science team.

63
00:02:42,786 --> 00:02:46,444
Now, as I looked at this
from an engineering perspective,

64
00:02:46,444 --> 00:02:49,346
it became very clear to me
that what I needed to architect

65
00:02:49,346 --> 00:02:51,726
was a smart, collaborative,

66
00:02:51,726 --> 00:02:54,366
socially intelligent
artificial intelligence.

67
00:02:54,366 --> 00:02:57,904
In other words, I needed to build
something very much like a HAL

68
00:02:57,904 --> 00:03:01,144
but without the homicidal tendencies.

69
00:03:01,144 --> 00:03:03,117
(Laughter)

70
00:03:03,117 --> 00:03:04,807
Let's pause for a moment.

71
00:03:04,807 --> 00:03:08,761
Is it really possible to build
an artificial intelligence like that?

72
00:03:08,761 --> 00:03:10,231
Actually, it is.

73
00:03:10,231 --> 00:03:11,448
In many ways,

74
00:03:11,448 --> 00:03:13,522
this is a hard engineering problem

75
00:03:13,522 --> 00:03:15,357
with elements of AI,

76
00:03:15,357 --> 00:03:18,593
not some wet hairball of an AI problem
that needs to be engineered.

77
00:03:18,593 --> 00:03:22,362
To paraphrase Alan Turing,

78
00:03:22,362 --> 00:03:25,109
I'm not interested in a sentient machine.

79
00:03:25,109 --> 00:03:26,488
I'm not building a HAL.

80
00:03:26,488 --> 00:03:29,110
All I'm after is a simple brain,

81
00:03:29,110 --> 00:03:32,871
something that offers
the illusion of intelligence.

82
00:03:32,871 --> 00:03:36,031
The art and the science of computing

83
00:03:36,031 --> 00:03:36,795
have come a long way

84
00:03:36,795 --> 00:03:37,853
since HAL was onscreen,

85
00:03:37,853 --> 00:03:41,024
and I'd imagine if his inventor
Dr. Chandra were here today,

86
00:03:41,024 --> 00:03:43,380
he'd have a whole lot of questions for us.

87
00:03:43,380 --> 00:03:45,310
Is it really possible for us

88
00:03:45,310 --> 00:03:49,382
to take a system of millions
upon millions of devices

89
00:03:49,382 --> 00:03:51,331
to read in their data streams,

90
00:03:51,331 --> 00:03:53,359
to predict their failures
and act in advance?

91
00:03:53,359 --> 00:03:54,644
Yes.

92
00:03:54,644 --> 00:03:57,816
Can we build systems that converse
with humans in natural language?

93
00:03:57,816 --> 00:03:58,603
Yes.

94
00:03:58,603 --> 00:04:00,898
Can we build systems that recognize
objects, identify emotions,

95
00:04:00,898 --> 00:04:05,325
emote themselves, play games,
and even read lips?

96
00:04:05,325 --> 00:04:06,377
Yes.

97
00:04:06,377 --> 00:04:08,787
Can we build a system that sets goals,

98
00:04:08,787 --> 00:04:12,331
that carries out plans against those goals
and learns along the way?

99
00:04:12,331 --> 00:04:13,609
Yes.

100
00:04:13,609 --> 00:04:15,469
Can we build systems

101
00:04:15,469 --> 00:04:17,110
that have a theory of mind?

102
00:04:17,110 --> 00:04:18,581
This we are learning to do.

103
00:04:18,581 --> 00:04:22,566
Can we build systems that have
an ethical and moral foundation?

104
00:04:22,566 --> 00:04:25,360
This we must learn how to do.

105
00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:28,238
So let's accept for a moment that it's
possible to build such

106
00:04:28,238 --> 00:04:29,768
an artificial intelligence

107
00:04:29,768 --> 00:04:31,968
for this kind of mission and others.

108
00:04:31,968 --> 00:04:34,613
The next question you
must ask yourself is,

109
00:04:34,613 --> 00:04:36,390
should we fear it?

110
00:04:36,390 --> 00:04:38,138
Now, every new technology

111
00:04:38,138 --> 00:04:40,406
brings with it some
measure of trepidation.

112
00:04:40,406 --> 00:04:42,952
When we first saw cars,

113
00:04:42,952 --> 00:04:46,900
people lamented that we would see
the destruction of the family.

114
00:04:46,900 --> 00:04:49,566
When we first saw telephones come in,

115
00:04:49,566 --> 00:04:52,363
people would worry it would destroy
all civil conversation.

116
00:04:52,363 --> 00:04:56,328
At the point in time we saw
the written word become pervasive,

117
00:04:56,328 --> 00:04:58,812
people thought we would lose
our ability to memorize.

118
00:04:58,812 --> 00:05:00,916
These things are all true to a degree,

119
00:05:00,916 --> 00:05:03,005
but it's also true that these technologies

120
00:05:03,005 --> 00:05:06,408
brought to us things that extended
the human experience

121
00:05:06,408 --> 00:05:09,928
in some profound ways.

122
00:05:09,928 --> 00:05:12,591
So let's take this a little further.

123
00:05:12,591 --> 00:05:17,722
I do not fear the creation
of an AI like this,

124
00:05:17,722 --> 00:05:21,864
because it will eventually embody
some of our values.

125
00:05:21,864 --> 00:05:24,233
Consider this: building a cognitive system

126
00:05:24,233 --> 00:05:27,911
is fundamentally different
than building a traditional

127
00:05:27,911 --> 00:05:29,217
software-intensive system of the past.

128
00:05:29,217 --> 00:05:31,418
We don't program them. We teach them.

129
00:05:31,418 --> 00:05:33,875
In order to teach a system
how to recognize flowers,

130
00:05:33,875 --> 00:05:36,934
I show it thousands of flowers
of the kinds I like.

131
00:05:36,934 --> 00:05:39,308
In order to teach a system
how to play a game --

132
00:05:39,308 --> 00:05:42,114
Well, I would. You would too.

133
00:05:42,114 --> 00:05:45,611
I like flowers. Come on.

134
00:05:45,611 --> 00:05:48,543
To teach a system how
to play a game like go,

135
00:05:48,543 --> 00:05:50,392
I'd have it play thousands of games of go,

136
00:05:50,392 --> 00:05:52,563
but in the process I also teach it
how to discern

137
00:05:52,563 --> 00:05:54,715
a good game from a bad game.

138
00:05:54,715 --> 00:05:58,318
If I want to create an artificially
intelligent legal assistant,

139
00:05:58,318 --> 00:06:01,019
I will teach it some corpus of law
but at the same time

140
00:06:01,019 --> 00:06:02,998
I am fusing with it

141
00:06:02,998 --> 00:06:06,315
the sense of mercy and justice
that is part of that law.

142
00:06:06,315 --> 00:06:09,824
In scientific terms, this is what
we call ground truth,

143
00:06:09,824 --> 00:06:11,900
and here's the important point:

144
00:06:11,900 --> 00:06:16,378
in producing these machines,
we are therefore teaching them

145
00:06:16,378 --> 00:06:16,761
a sense of our values.

146
00:06:16,761 --> 00:06:19,638
To that end, I trust
in artificial intelligence

147
00:06:19,638 --> 00:06:24,291
the same, if not more, as a human
who is well-trained.

148
00:06:24,291 --> 00:06:25,685
But, you may ask,

149
00:06:25,685 --> 00:06:28,551
what about rogue agents,

150
00:06:28,551 --> 00:06:31,230
some well-funded
non-government organization?

151
00:06:31,230 --> 00:06:35,224
I do not fear an artificial intelligence
in the hand of a lone wolf.

152
00:06:35,224 --> 00:06:37,392
Clearly, we cannot protect ourselves

153
00:06:37,392 --> 00:06:39,958
against all random acts of violence,

154
00:06:39,958 --> 00:06:41,841
but the reality is such a system

155
00:06:41,841 --> 00:06:45,591
requires substantial training
and subtle training

156
00:06:45,591 --> 00:06:47,606
far beyond the resources of an individual,

157
00:06:47,606 --> 00:06:51,738
and furthermore, it's far more
than just injecting an Internet virus

158
00:06:51,738 --> 00:06:53,410
to the world where you push a button,

159
00:06:53,410 --> 00:06:55,068
all of a sudden it's in a million places

160
00:06:55,068 --> 00:06:57,474
and laptops start blowing up
all over the place.

161
00:06:57,474 --> 00:07:00,452
Now, these kinds of substances
are much larger

162
00:07:00,452 --> 00:07:02,596
and we'll certainly see them coming.

163
00:07:02,596 --> 00:07:05,289
Do I fear that such
an artificial intelligence

164
00:07:05,289 --> 00:07:08,263
might threaten all of humanity?

165
00:07:08,263 --> 00:07:09,801
If you look at movies

166
00:07:09,801 --> 00:07:12,731
such as "The Matrix," "Metropolis,"

167
00:07:12,731 --> 00:07:15,777
"The Terminator," shows
such as "Westworld,"

168
00:07:15,777 --> 00:07:17,969
they all speak of this kind of fear.

169
00:07:17,969 --> 00:07:22,965
Indeed, in the book "Superintelligence"
by the philosopher Nick Bostrom,

170
00:07:22,965 --> 00:07:24,392
he picks up on this theme

171
00:07:24,392 --> 00:07:28,164
and observes that a superintelligence
might not only be dangerous,

172
00:07:28,164 --> 00:07:32,000
it could represent an existential threat
to all of humanity.

173
00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:33,789
Dr. Bostrom's basic argument

174
00:07:33,789 --> 00:07:37,591
is that such systems will eventually

175
00:07:37,591 --> 00:07:40,276
have such an insatiable
thirst for information

176
00:07:40,276 --> 00:07:42,920
that they will perhaps learn how to learn

177
00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:46,604
and eventually discover that they
may have goals

178
00:07:46,604 --> 00:07:48,324
that are contrary to human needs.

179
00:07:48,324 --> 00:07:50,206
Dr. Bostrom has a number of followers.

180
00:07:50,206 --> 00:07:52,766
He is supported by people
such as Elon Musk

181
00:07:52,766 --> 00:07:54,706
and Stephen Hawking.

182
00:07:54,706 --> 00:07:57,846
With all due respect

183
00:07:57,846 --> 00:08:00,251
to these brilliant minds,

184
00:08:00,251 --> 00:08:02,600
I believe that they
are fundamentally wrong.

185
00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:06,650
Now, there are a lot of pieces
of Dr. Bostrom's argument to unpack,

186
00:08:06,650 --> 00:08:08,254
and I don't have time to unpack them all,

187
00:08:08,254 --> 00:08:10,564
but very briefly, consider this:

188
00:08:10,564 --> 00:08:14,228
super knowing is very different
than super doing.

189
00:08:14,228 --> 00:08:17,394
HAL was a threat to the Discovery crew
only insofar as HAL commanded

190
00:08:17,394 --> 00:08:20,651
all aspects of the Discovery.

191
00:08:20,651 --> 00:08:23,166
So it would have to be
with a superintelligence.

192
00:08:23,166 --> 00:08:25,697
It would have to have dominion
over all of our world.

193
00:08:25,697 --> 00:08:28,529
This is the stuff of Skynet
from the movie "The Terminator"

194
00:08:28,529 --> 00:08:30,467
in which we had a superintelligence

195
00:08:30,467 --> 00:08:32,059
that commanded human will,
that directed every device

196
00:08:32,059 --> 00:08:35,404
that was in every corner of the world.

197
00:08:35,404 --> 00:08:37,057
Practically speaking,

198
00:08:37,057 --> 00:08:39,345
it ain't gonna happen.

199
00:08:39,345 --> 00:08:42,671
We are not building AIs
that control the weather,

200
00:08:42,671 --> 00:08:44,021
that direct the tides,

201
00:08:44,021 --> 00:08:47,466
that command us capricious,
chaotic humans.

202
00:08:47,466 --> 00:08:50,813
And furthermore, if such
an artificial intelligence existed,

203
00:08:50,813 --> 00:08:53,712
it would have to compete
with human economies,

204
00:08:53,712 --> 00:08:57,357
and thereby compete for resources with us.

205
00:08:57,357 --> 00:08:58,666
And in the end --

206
00:08:58,666 --> 00:09:00,162
don't tell Siri this --

207
00:09:00,162 --> 00:09:02,674
we can always unplug them.

208
00:09:02,674 --> 00:09:04,943
(Laughter)

209
00:09:04,943 --> 00:09:08,110
We are on an incredible journey

210
00:09:08,110 --> 00:09:10,443
of coevolution with our machines.

211
00:09:10,443 --> 00:09:12,999
The humans we are today

212
00:09:12,999 --> 00:09:15,465
are not the humans we will be then.

213
00:09:15,465 --> 00:09:18,904
To worry now about the rise
of a superintelligence

214
00:09:18,904 --> 00:09:21,872
is in many ways a dangerous distraction

215
00:09:21,872 --> 00:09:24,040
because the rise of computing itself

216
00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:27,116
brings to us a number of human
and societal issues

217
00:09:27,116 --> 00:09:29,456
to which we must now attend.

218
00:09:29,456 --> 00:09:32,305
How shall I best organize society

219
00:09:32,305 --> 00:09:34,731
when the need for human labor diminishes?

220
00:09:34,731 --> 00:09:36,642
How can I bring understanding

221
00:09:36,642 --> 00:09:40,370
and education throughout the globe
and still respect our differences?

222
00:09:40,370 --> 00:09:44,575
How might I extend and enhance human life
through cognitive healthcare?

223
00:09:44,575 --> 00:09:47,264
How might I use computing

224
00:09:47,264 --> 00:09:50,049
to help take us to the stars?

225
00:09:50,049 --> 00:09:52,507
And that's the exciting thing.

226
00:09:52,507 --> 00:09:55,553
The opportunities to use computing

227
00:09:55,553 --> 00:09:57,075
to advance the human experience

228
00:09:57,075 --> 00:09:58,123
are within our reach,

229
00:09:58,123 --> 00:09:59,960
here and now,

230
00:09:59,960 --> 00:10:02,404
and we are just beginning.

231
00:10:02,404 --> 00:10:04,150
Thank you very much.

232
00:10:04,150 --> 00:10:07,806
(Applause)