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I am a historian,

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and I want to talk about the future.

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I know that's a little bit strange because
historians usually speak about the past,

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right?

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They talk about the 19th century
and the British Empire, for instance.

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But I think now is the time, 
when we all are interested

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in this this crucial question of:

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Will there be more peace 
in the 21st century?

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Because that is exactly the century
where we live, where our kids live,

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and that's why we are interested 
in this question.

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Right now, we know that we have 
both war and peace at the same time,

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but in different countries.

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As we gather here, we have a war
in Syria right now, going on.

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About 400,000 people killed.

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And we realize that we can
only have this gathering,

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have these very interesting speeches
that I much enjoy,

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because we have peace in Budapest.

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This picture to the left is a picture
that shows that we can coexist peacefully

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among different religions,
and among different nations,

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also among genders.

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The picture to the right shows
that at times, we find ourselves in wars.

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This picture was taken in the Iraq war.

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One million Muslims
were killed in that war.

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To me, it is a war
for resources: an oil war.

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So some researchers have suggested
that technology should save us.

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Green growth, solar cells,

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should take us out of these wars
that we fight for oil and gas.

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You know, I have this hope.

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I really hope that 100% renewable
is something that we together can do

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in the 21st century.

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In fact, I live in Switzerland.

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On my house, I put these solar cells.

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In fact not these, that's not my house,
I don't have a house that big.

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But the solar cells,
I put them on my house

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and they create electricity.


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It works, trust me.

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I even bought the car.


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It's an American car,
I'm not allowed to say the brand.

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But it's very fast and I really like it.

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So I use the energy from the sun
to drive around with my car

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and I did 40,000 km with the car,
and I tell you, it works.

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But at the same time,

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I advise you not to believe 
that this transition

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from oil, coal, gas, and nuclear energy

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to the renewable energies
will be fast and easy.

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I don't think it will be fast
and I don't think it will be easy.

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Why? We have old forces,
they keep us captive.

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This is a picture
of the coal industry in Germany.

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I don't want to say


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that the coal industry in Germany is evil,

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or that coal industry in China is evil.

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It's not about nations, OK?

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But these are business models 
and people make money.

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So they're not going to say,
"OK, then we stop with this business,"

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because it is great idea of 100% 
renewable energies, OK?

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They are not going to do that.

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In fact, if we look in detail 
at our dependency on fossil fuels,

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we realize that we need 
90 million barrels of oil every day.

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That's such a big number
that we can't relate to it.

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But is means that we need 
45 of these ships every day.

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That's a supertanker, OK?

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45 of these ships every day 
is what we need

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otherwise the world,
as we know it, doesn't work.

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In 1945, at the end
of the second World War,

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we only used six million barrels.


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Now it's 90 million barrels.

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Every barrel has 159 liters,
so trust me, it's a lot of oil.

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And what we really experience
then during the last 70 years,

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that's, you know, 
the period that we all shared,

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some of you are not 70, others are 70,

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but just generally speaking,

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our life is a life in which
our dependency on oil has grown.

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And that's why we take 
greater risks to get at the oil.

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In some cases we take oil 
that is not liquid.

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We go to Canada, we cut down the wood,


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and that's how it looks.

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So really, I think we behave 
very much like a drug addict.

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You know drug addicts?

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Not in your vicinity, but just generally, 
from newspapers or so.

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(Laughter)

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A drug addict, OK?

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He does whatever 
it takes to get at his drug.

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He doesn't care about the damage he does

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to his environment and to himself.

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So really I think this transition
will be difficult.

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I think energy is a key issue
in the 21st century.

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If we think about war and we think 
about peace in the 21st century

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we must try to go towards

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100% renewable energy.

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That is challenging, I know.

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There is another thing
which is even more challenging:

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That is the military.

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The military in every country
- we have 200 countries in the world -

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in every single country,

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the military is convinced
that they are a force for peace.

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In Switzerland it is like that 
and in Hungary it is like that, I'll bet.

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But historical data of the last 100 years


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prove that that's not true.

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I'm not going into the specifics.

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Generally speaking, I think, we also 
have to reduce military spending.

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And we have to ask ourselves,

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what is the strongest,
the biggest military?

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It's the American military.

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That's why us historians,
we use the term "US Empire."

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Some people find this term offensive.


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I assure you, it's not offensive.

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2000 years ago we had the Roman Empire,

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100 years ago we had the British Empire.

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Now we have the American Empire.


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United States is the most
powerful country in the world

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and that's why it plays 
a key issue, a key role

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when it comes to war and peace
in the 21st century.

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They have more then 700 
military bases across the globe.

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No other country
has so many military bases.

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If you look at defense spending,

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US defense spending is almost 600 billion.

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that's 2 billion dollars a day.

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That's bigger than the TED budget, OK?

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2 billion dollars a day.

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If you look at defensive spending 
in China around 200 billion,

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then Russia and Saudi Arabia
and the rest of the world.

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So my idea is that in all countries 
we should reduce military spending.

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It's difficult.

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Whether we can make it or not
depends a lot on the media.

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Because the media
puts a lot of stories in our head.

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Sometimes these stories
help to promote peace,

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and other times the media
presents war propaganda.

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So then media is not the solution, 
but more of the problem.

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We heard the weapon of mass destruction
story before the Iraq war.

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I think, that's an example 
of how the media has misled us.

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It's very critical that we learn 
to deal with media in the 21st century.

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As historians, we research
what US soldiers

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who fight in Iraq are thinking.

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There are interviews being done
with those soldiers.

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And trust me, they don't say,
"We are here in Iraq to grab the oil.

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This is a resource war, 
a war of conquest."

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That's not what they say.

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US soldiers in Iraq say, "We are here
to retaliate for Saddam Hussein's role

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in the terrorist attacks 
of September 11, 2001."

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On their helmet they paint
the twin towers on the Pentagon.

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Now the problem is - 
and I can tell you as historian -

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there was no role
of Saddam Hussein in 9/11.

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Nothing, OK?

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These soldiers are terribly mistaken.

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They are suffering from war propaganda.

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What we then do is we go back to 9/11.

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It's been 15 years
since these attacks shocked the word.

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Most of you in the room even remember 
where you were on that day

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whether they were at the office,


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or whether they were at home
playing with the kids.

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You know, wherever you were,

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you probably remember,
and that's very, very rare, OK?

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What we research right now
is we try to find out

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what's the picture in our mind

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that the media constructed 
with this event.

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The picture is - this is a picture
of New York, downtown Manhattan -

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that one plane flew in the North Tower


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and the other plane 
flew into the South Tower,

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and than the towers collapsed.

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That's basically 9/11 for most of us.

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Plane, plane, tower, tower.

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Now the problem is that in the background,
you have a third tower.

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It's called World Trade Center Number 7 
and this tower also collapsed.

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So we have three towers, 
but only two planes.

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This is the third tower 
and it collapsed on 9/11.

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Let me just very quickly check
your knowledge on terrorism.

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Who in the room was fully aware
that three towers collapsed on that day?

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Maybe a show of hands.

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That's not the majority.

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Let me ask you the other way.

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Who did not know
that three towers went down?

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That's 80%.

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Now keep in mind, that you are amongst
the most clever people

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that exist because that's, you know,
because you come to TED that shows.

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(Laughter)

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I just urge you to,
if you don't know that,

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then this means, that we are not 
very well informed about terrorism at all.

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At that time I was teaching history 
at Zurich University in Switzerland

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and my students had to read
the 9/11 commission report.

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That's a 600-page thick document.


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I wanted my students to find out
why did the third tower collapsed, OK?

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It was not hit by plane,
why did it collapse?

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We found that the third tower 
is not mentioned in that report.

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You know, no mentioning that three towers 
collapsed, that's quite a big mistake.

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You can't say, "Well three
or four towers, let's not be picky."

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(Laughter)

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It is important, it matters.

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All I learnt about 9/11, 
I learnt from my American friends.

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I have researchers in the United States
who told me there's a group:

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It's called "Architects
and Engineers for 9/11 Truth"

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who says there's something wrong
with this building.

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And what this group says is

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this building was brought down
through controlled demolition.

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In 2008, the US Government 
published a new report.

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- the National Institute for Standards
and Technology published that report -

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which said: column 79 of the building 
was destroyed through office fires

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and that led to the free fall 
of the building.

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Think again.

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The building has 81 columns,
and the architects say,

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in order for the building
to fall symmetrically,

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all 81 columns have to vanish 
at the same second.

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For that you need controlled demolition.

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The NIST says: no, fire destroyed 
one column and brought the building down.

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Now I can't solve this riddle for you.

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It's either fire or controlled demolition,
and you have to think for yourself.

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As historians we observe that politicians
- very powerful politicians -

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tell us not to ask these questions.

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President Bush said,
"Osama bin Laden did it."

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00:13:06,316 --> 00:13:09,468
Osama bin Laden is from Saudi Arabia.

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We look very closely at the relationship
between Bush and the Saudi royal family.

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I took an interesting picture recently.

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It's Bush and Abdullah in Crawford
in Texas, hand in hand.

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00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:28,711
You know, it would be interesting
to talk with Saudi Arabia

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00:13:28,711 --> 00:13:30,341
about 9/11, or with Bush.

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00:13:30,341 --> 00:13:31,501
But obviously we can't.

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I'm just a small Swiss historian,
I have no access to these people.

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I can't talk with them about column 79.

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What Bush said is, "Let us never tolerate 
outrageous conspiracy theories

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concerning the attacks of September 11."

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He said that immediately
after the attacks.

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And this word "conspiracy theories"

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has blocked the entire 9/11 debate 
now for 15 years.

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And I can only tell you
that's total nonsense.

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That doesn't tell us whether it's fire
or controlled demolition.

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It's not a scientific concept.

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What I urge you to do is to go beyond
this word "conspiracy theories",

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and I urge you to question 
all power brokers

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that we see, and their narratives.

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00:14:14,647 --> 00:14:17,917
Because now we have Putin 
and his war in Syria.

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Ask yourself whether the story 
that Putin presents is true or wrong,

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00:14:23,063 --> 00:14:28,163
or look at IS: their story is
that if you blow yourself up,

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you're going to have 
virgins in heaven, OK?

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Do you believe that?

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Ask yourself.

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I think within war and peace,


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we always have to look
at this crucial issue in the end:

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how the media tells us stories.

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In this case, ABC News in America 
said after 9/11:

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"FBI investigators discovered 
the passport of Satam al Suqami."

240
00:14:52,275 --> 00:14:55,451
- is not Saddam it's Satam al Suqami -

241
00:14:55,451 --> 00:14:58,134
one of the terrorists aboard
American Airlines Flight 11,

242
00:14:58,134 --> 00:15:00,355
the first plane to hit 
the World Trade Center.

243
00:15:00,355 --> 00:15:02,251
Where did they find that passport?

244
00:15:02,981 --> 00:15:04,241
Here.

245
00:15:06,922 --> 00:15:09,851
This passport was found here

246
00:15:11,231 --> 00:15:14,171
and linked the Muslim world to terrorism.

247
00:15:14,701 --> 00:15:18,031
Had it been a Hindu passport,
too bad for the Hindus.

248
00:15:18,156 --> 00:15:23,336
I tell you it is very important 
what we have in our head.

249
00:15:24,477 --> 00:15:27,177
Because what we have
in our head is our thoughts.

250
00:15:27,777 --> 00:15:31,419
Our thoughts shape our actions,


251
00:15:32,069 --> 00:15:34,209
they influence our feelings.

252
00:15:34,839 --> 00:15:39,223
So ultimately, I think
that is the story in your head

253
00:15:39,223 --> 00:15:44,693
will decide whether we have more peace
or more war in the 21st century.

254
00:15:44,752 --> 00:15:46,300
Thank you very much.

255
00:15:46,300 --> 00:15:48,620
(Applause)