0:00:09.060,0:00:10.719
I am a historian,

0:00:11.219,0:00:13.719
and I want to talk about the future.

0:00:14.729,0:00:19.524
I know that's a little bit strange because[br]historians usually speak about the past,

0:00:19.524,0:00:20.477
right?

0:00:20.727,0:00:24.879
They talk about the 19th century[br]and the British Empire, for instance.

0:00:25.507,0:00:30.093
But I think now is the time, [br]when we all are interested

0:00:30.093,0:00:32.562
in this this crucial question of:

0:00:32.562,0:00:36.445
Will there be more peace [br]in the 21st century?

0:00:36.908,0:00:41.567
Because that is exactly the century[br]where we live, where our kids live,

0:00:41.737,0:00:45.116
and that's why we are interested [br]in this question.

0:00:45.706,0:00:51.851
Right now, we know that we have [br]both war and peace at the same time,

0:00:52.131,0:00:53.726
but in different countries.

0:00:54.176,0:00:58.646
As we gather here, we have a war[br]in Syria right now, going on.

0:00:58.880,0:01:01.140
About 400,000 people killed.

0:01:01.614,0:01:05.383
And we realize that we can[br]only have this gathering,

0:01:05.383,0:01:08.453
have these very interesting speeches[br]that I much enjoy,

0:01:08.733,0:01:11.443
because we have peace in Budapest.

0:01:12.714,0:01:17.774
This picture to the left is a picture[br]that shows that we can coexist peacefully

0:01:17.774,0:01:21.272
among different religions,[br]and among different nations,

0:01:21.272,0:01:23.262
also among genders.

0:01:23.762,0:01:29.672
The picture to the right shows[br]that at times, we find ourselves in wars.

0:01:30.452,0:01:33.054
This picture was taken in the Iraq war.

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One million Muslims[br]were killed in that war.

0:01:38.468,0:01:43.128
To me, it is a war[br]for resources: an oil war.

0:01:44.494,0:01:49.234
So some researchers have suggested[br]that technology should save us.

0:01:50.273,0:01:52.644
Green growth, solar cells,

0:01:52.644,0:01:56.914
should take us out of these wars[br]that we fight for oil and gas.

0:01:57.344,0:01:58.831
You know, I have this hope.

0:01:59.131,0:02:05.401
I really hope that 100% renewable[br]is something that we together can do

0:02:05.771,0:02:07.099
in the 21st century.

0:02:07.497,0:02:09.515
In fact, I live in Switzerland.

0:02:09.515,0:02:12.024
On my house, I put these solar cells.

0:02:12.024,0:02:15.304
In fact not these, that's not my house,[br]I don't have a house that big.

0:02:15.304,0:02:19.286
But the solar cells,[br]I put them on my house

0:02:19.458,0:02:21.208
and they create electricity.[br]

0:02:21.208,0:02:22.867
It works, trust me.

0:02:23.217,0:02:24.717
I even bought the car.[br]

0:02:24.717,0:02:27.553
It's an American car,[br]I'm not allowed to say the brand.

0:02:27.553,0:02:29.883
But it's very fast and I really like it.

0:02:30.723,0:02:34.278
So I use the energy from the sun[br]to drive around with my car

0:02:34.278,0:02:37.996
and I did 40,000 km with the car,[br]and I tell you, it works.

0:02:38.526,0:02:40.336
But at the same time,

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I advise you not to believe [br]that this transition

0:02:44.566,0:02:48.173
from oil, coal, gas, and nuclear energy

0:02:48.463,0:02:50.979
to the renewable energies[br]will be fast and easy.

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I don't think it will be fast[br]and I don't think it will be easy.

0:02:54.419,0:02:58.409
Why? We have old forces,[br]they keep us captive.

0:02:58.453,0:03:01.773
This is a picture[br]of the coal industry in Germany.

0:03:02.203,0:03:03.733
I don't want to say[br]

0:03:03.733,0:03:06.077
that the coal industry in Germany is evil,

0:03:06.077,0:03:08.374
or that coal industry in China is evil.

0:03:08.374,0:03:10.404
It's not about nations, OK?

0:03:10.984,0:03:15.081
But these are business models [br]and people make money.

0:03:15.551,0:03:18.892
So they're not going to say,[br]"OK, then we stop with this business,"

0:03:18.901,0:03:23.081
because it is great idea of 100% [br]renewable energies, OK?

0:03:23.081,0:03:24.703
They are not going to do that.

0:03:24.713,0:03:29.433
In fact, if we look in detail [br]at our dependency on fossil fuels,

0:03:29.733,0:03:35.276
we realize that we need [br]90 million barrels of oil every day.

0:03:37.964,0:03:40.544
That's such a big number[br]that we can't relate to it.

0:03:40.549,0:03:45.019
But is means that we need [br]45 of these ships every day.

0:03:45.045,0:03:46.878
That's a supertanker, OK?

0:03:46.878,0:03:49.656
45 of these ships every day [br]is what we need

0:03:49.656,0:03:52.836
otherwise the world,[br]as we know it, doesn't work.

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In 1945, at the end[br]of the second World War,

0:03:56.151,0:03:59.049
we only used six million barrels.[br]

0:03:59.049,0:04:01.589
Now it's 90 million barrels.

0:04:01.589,0:04:06.683
Every barrel has 159 liters,[br]so trust me, it's a lot of oil.

0:04:08.073,0:04:11.641
And what we really experience[br]then during the last 70 years,

0:04:11.641,0:04:13.928
that's, you know, [br]the period that we all shared,

0:04:13.928,0:04:16.193
some of you are not 70, others are 70,

0:04:16.193,0:04:18.176
but just generally speaking,

0:04:18.176,0:04:23.286
our life is a life in which[br]our dependency on oil has grown.

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And that's why we take [br]greater risks to get at the oil.

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In some cases we take oil [br]that is not liquid.

0:04:34.474,0:04:38.312
We go to Canada, we cut down the wood,[br]

0:04:39.312,0:04:40.972
and that's how it looks.

0:04:42.182,0:04:45.992
So really, I think we behave [br]very much like a drug addict.

0:04:47.186,0:04:48.836
You know drug addicts?

0:04:50.464,0:04:54.382
Not in your vicinity, but just generally, [br]from newspapers or so.

0:04:54.382,0:04:55.682
(Laughter)

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A drug addict, OK?

0:04:58.242,0:05:02.052
He does whatever [br]it takes to get at his drug.

0:05:02.052,0:05:05.782
He doesn't care about the damage he does

0:05:05.819,0:05:08.097
to his environment and to himself.

0:05:08.097,0:05:11.237
So really I think this transition[br]will be difficult.

0:05:12.454,0:05:16.394
I think energy is a key issue[br]in the 21st century.

0:05:16.446,0:05:20.859
If we think about war and we think [br]about peace in the 21st century

0:05:21.082,0:05:24.199
we must try to go towards

0:05:24.199,0:05:26.879
100% renewable energy.

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That is challenging, I know.

0:05:29.475,0:05:32.135
There is another thing[br]which is even more challenging:

0:05:32.692,0:05:34.042
That is the military.

0:05:36.748,0:05:40.858
The military in every country[br]- we have 200 countries in the world -

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in every single country,

0:05:43.154,0:05:48.244
the military is convinced[br]that they are a force for peace.

0:05:50.175,0:05:53.625
In Switzerland it is like that [br]and in Hungary it is like that, I'll bet.

0:05:55.122,0:06:00.159
But historical data of the last 100 years[br]

0:06:01.009,0:06:03.449
prove that that's not true.

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I'm not going into the specifics.

0:06:07.791,0:06:12.211
Generally speaking, I think, we also [br]have to reduce military spending.

0:06:13.044,0:06:14.998
And we have to ask ourselves,

0:06:15.378,0:06:18.008
what is the strongest,[br]the biggest military?

0:06:19.108,0:06:20.958
It's the American military.

0:06:21.457,0:06:26.317
That's why us historians,[br]we use the term "US Empire."

0:06:27.397,0:06:29.813
Some people find this term offensive.[br]

0:06:29.813,0:06:32.473
I assure you, it's not offensive.

0:06:32.793,0:06:35.949
2000 years ago we had the Roman Empire,

0:06:36.409,0:06:39.409
100 years ago we had the British Empire.

0:06:39.409,0:06:41.829
Now we have the American Empire.[br]

0:06:42.290,0:06:46.011
United States is the most[br]powerful country in the world

0:06:46.011,0:06:50.201
and that's why it plays [br]a key issue, a key role

0:06:50.201,0:06:53.118
when it comes to war and peace[br]in the 21st century.

0:06:53.598,0:06:57.348
They have more then 700 [br]military bases across the globe.

0:06:57.696,0:07:00.143
No other country[br]has so many military bases.

0:07:00.143,0:07:02.304
If you look at defense spending,

0:07:02.304,0:07:06.524
US defense spending is almost 600 billion.

0:07:07.194,0:07:09.594
that's 2 billion dollars a day.

0:07:10.414,0:07:12.844
That's bigger than the TED budget, OK?

0:07:13.834,0:07:15.934
2 billion dollars a day.

0:07:16.701,0:07:20.156
If you look at defensive spending [br]in China around 200 billion,

0:07:20.156,0:07:22.776
then Russia and Saudi Arabia[br]and the rest of the world.

0:07:22.776,0:07:27.775
So my idea is that in all countries [br]we should reduce military spending.

0:07:28.222,0:07:29.739
It's difficult.

0:07:29.739,0:07:33.559
Whether we can make it or not[br]depends a lot on the media.

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Because the media[br]puts a lot of stories in our head.

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Sometimes these stories[br]help to promote peace,

0:07:42.791,0:07:48.269
and other times the media[br]presents war propaganda.

0:07:48.831,0:07:52.741
So then media is not the solution, [br]but more of the problem.

0:07:53.920,0:07:58.010
We heard the weapon of mass destruction[br]story before the Iraq war.

0:07:58.746,0:08:02.576
I think, that's an example [br]of how the media has misled us.

0:08:03.006,0:08:08.186
It's very critical that we learn [br]to deal with media in the 21st century.

0:08:09.293,0:08:12.173
As historians, we research[br]what US soldiers

0:08:12.173,0:08:15.993
who fight in Iraq are thinking.

0:08:16.343,0:08:19.023
There are interviews being done[br]with those soldiers.

0:08:19.048,0:08:24.491
And trust me, they don't say,[br]"We are here in Iraq to grab the oil.

0:08:25.111,0:08:28.421
This is a resource war, [br]a war of conquest."

0:08:28.421,0:08:30.326
That's not what they say.

0:08:30.986,0:08:37.770
US soldiers in Iraq say, "We are here[br]to retaliate for Saddam Hussein's role

0:08:37.770,0:08:42.089
in the terrorist attacks [br]of September 11, 2001."

0:08:42.089,0:08:47.609
On their helmet they paint[br]the twin towers on the Pentagon.

0:08:48.524,0:08:52.392
Now the problem is - [br]and I can tell you as historian -

0:08:52.612,0:08:56.675
there was no role[br]of Saddam Hussein in 9/11.

0:08:57.035,0:08:58.835
Nothing, OK?

0:08:59.215,0:09:02.734
These soldiers are terribly mistaken.

0:09:03.114,0:09:06.114
They are suffering from war propaganda.

0:09:07.584,0:09:11.504
What we then do is we go back to 9/11.

0:09:11.504,0:09:16.564
It's been 15 years[br]since these attacks shocked the word.

0:09:17.124,0:09:21.330
Most of you in the room even remember [br]where you were on that day

0:09:21.330,0:09:22.990
whether they were at the office,[br]

0:09:22.990,0:09:26.012
or whether they were at home[br]playing with the kids.

0:09:26.342,0:09:28.709
[br]You know, wherever you were,

0:09:28.709,0:09:31.889
you probably remember,[br]and that's very, very rare, OK?

0:09:32.651,0:09:36.875
What we research right now[br]is we try to find out

0:09:36.875,0:09:39.548
what's the picture in our mind

0:09:39.548,0:09:43.778
that the media constructed [br]with this event.

0:09:43.778,0:09:49.588
The picture is - this is a picture[br]of New York, downtown Manhattan -

0:09:49.588,0:09:52.203
that one plane flew in the North Tower[br]

0:09:52.203,0:09:54.533
and the other plane [br]flew into the South Tower,

0:09:54.533,0:09:56.571
and than the towers collapsed.

0:09:56.775,0:09:58.885
That's basically 9/11 for most of us.

0:09:58.927,0:10:00.877
Plane, plane, tower, tower.

0:10:01.706,0:10:06.300
Now the problem is that in the background,[br]you have a third tower.

0:10:06.300,0:10:11.370
It's called World Trade Center Number 7 [br]and this tower also collapsed.

0:10:12.078,0:10:16.168
So we have three towers, [br]but only two planes.

0:10:17.516,0:10:21.436
This is the third tower [br]and it collapsed on 9/11.

0:10:21.737,0:10:25.987
Let me just very quickly check[br]your knowledge on terrorism.

0:10:26.039,0:10:29.445
Who in the room was fully aware[br]that three towers collapsed on that day?

0:10:29.445,0:10:31.084
Maybe a show of hands.

0:10:32.914,0:10:34.274
That's not the majority.

0:10:34.274,0:10:35.784
Let me ask you the other way.

0:10:35.784,0:10:38.868
Who did not know[br]that three towers went down?

0:10:39.528,0:10:41.188
That's 80%.

0:10:41.868,0:10:44.828
Now keep in mind, that you are amongst[br]the most clever people

0:10:45.338,0:10:49.312
that exist because that's, you know,[br]because you come to TED that shows.

0:10:49.312,0:10:51.195
(Laughter)

0:10:51.730,0:10:54.550
I just urge you to,[br]if you don't know that,

0:10:54.550,0:10:58.850
then this means, that we are not [br]very well informed about terrorism at all.

0:10:59.023,0:11:03.041
At that time I was teaching history [br]at Zurich University in Switzerland

0:11:03.041,0:11:05.941
and my students had to read[br]the 9/11 commission report.

0:11:05.989,0:11:08.886
That's a 600-page thick document.[br]

0:11:09.316,0:11:13.466
I wanted my students to find out[br]why did the third tower collapsed, OK?

0:11:13.472,0:11:16.472
It was not hit by plane,[br]why did it collapse?

0:11:16.583,0:11:23.203
We found that the third tower [br]is not mentioned in that report.

0:11:24.235,0:11:29.385
You know, no mentioning that three towers [br]collapsed, that's quite a big mistake.

0:11:29.891,0:11:33.261
You can't say, "Well three[br]or four towers, let's not be picky."

0:11:33.261,0:11:34.411
(Laughter)

0:11:34.411,0:11:37.631
It is important, it matters.

0:11:38.811,0:11:43.730
All I learnt about 9/11, [br]I learnt from my American friends.

0:11:44.129,0:11:48.232
I have researchers in the United States[br]who told me there's a group:

0:11:48.232,0:11:51.891
It's called "Architects[br]and Engineers for 9/11 Truth"

0:11:51.891,0:11:54.793
who says there's something wrong[br]with this building.

0:11:54.793,0:11:56.463
And what this group says is

0:11:56.510,0:12:00.470
this building was brought down[br]through controlled demolition.

0:12:01.186,0:12:05.856
In 2008, the US Government [br]published a new report.

0:12:05.909,0:12:09.589
- the National Institute for Standards[br]and Technology published that report -

0:12:09.606,0:12:16.136
which said: column 79 of the building [br]was destroyed through office fires

0:12:16.817,0:12:20.367
and that led to the free fall [br]of the building.

0:12:23.102,0:12:24.392
Think again.

0:12:24.858,0:12:30.248
The building has 81 columns,[br]and the architects say,

0:12:30.294,0:12:32.935
in order for the building[br]to fall symmetrically,

0:12:32.935,0:12:36.235
all 81 columns have to vanish [br]at the same second.

0:12:36.878,0:12:39.118
For that you need controlled demolition.

0:12:39.648,0:12:46.453
The NIST says: no, fire destroyed [br]one column and brought the building down.

0:12:46.733,0:12:49.453
Now I can't solve this riddle for you.

0:12:49.590,0:12:53.640
It's either fire or controlled demolition,[br]and you have to think for yourself.

0:12:54.154,0:12:58.674
As historians we observe that politicians[br]- very powerful politicians -

0:12:58.815,0:13:01.725
tell us not to ask these questions.

0:13:02.801,0:13:06.006
President Bush said,[br]"Osama bin Laden did it."

0:13:06.316,0:13:09.468
Osama bin Laden is from Saudi Arabia.

0:13:09.468,0:13:14.148
We look very closely at the relationship[br]between Bush and the Saudi royal family.

0:13:14.703,0:13:17.213
I took an interesting picture recently.

0:13:18.447,0:13:24.587
It's Bush and Abdullah in Crawford[br]in Texas, hand in hand.

0:13:25.840,0:13:28.711
You know, it would be interesting[br]to talk with Saudi Arabia

0:13:28.711,0:13:30.341
about 9/11, or with Bush.

0:13:30.341,0:13:31.501
But obviously we can't.

0:13:31.501,0:13:34.676
I'm just a small Swiss historian,[br]I have no access to these people.

0:13:34.676,0:13:38.133
I can't talk with them about column 79.

0:13:38.923,0:13:43.148
What Bush said is, "Let us never tolerate [br]outrageous conspiracy theories

0:13:43.148,0:13:45.091
concerning the attacks of September 11."

0:13:45.091,0:13:47.391
He said that immediately[br]after the attacks.

0:13:47.391,0:13:50.133
And this word "conspiracy theories"

0:13:50.133,0:13:53.963
has blocked the entire 9/11 debate [br]now for 15 years.

0:13:54.413,0:13:57.363
And I can only tell you[br]that's total nonsense.

0:13:57.826,0:14:01.179
That doesn't tell us whether it's fire[br]or controlled demolition.

0:14:01.179,0:14:03.219
It's not a scientific concept.

0:14:03.799,0:14:08.372
What I urge you to do is to go beyond[br]this word "conspiracy theories",

0:14:08.470,0:14:12.347
and I urge you to question [br]all power brokers

0:14:12.347,0:14:14.647
that we see, and their narratives.

0:14:14.647,0:14:17.917
Because now we have Putin [br]and his war in Syria.

0:14:18.252,0:14:23.063
Ask yourself whether the story [br]that Putin presents is true or wrong,

0:14:23.063,0:14:28.163
or look at IS: their story is[br]that if you blow yourself up,

0:14:28.181,0:14:31.281
you're going to have [br]virgins in heaven, OK?

0:14:31.339,0:14:32.639
Do you believe that?

0:14:33.159,0:14:34.730
Ask yourself.

0:14:35.070,0:14:36.831
I think within war and peace,[br]

0:14:36.831,0:14:40.561
we always have to look[br]at this crucial issue in the end:

0:14:40.561,0:14:43.651
how the media tells us stories.

0:14:43.651,0:14:48.450
In this case, ABC News in America [br]said after 9/11:

0:14:48.450,0:14:52.275
"FBI investigators discovered [br]the passport of Satam al Suqami."

0:14:52.275,0:14:55.451
- is not Saddam it's Satam al Suqami -

0:14:55.451,0:14:58.134
one of the terrorists aboard[br]American Airlines Flight 11,

0:14:58.134,0:15:00.355
the first plane to hit [br]the World Trade Center.

0:15:00.355,0:15:02.251
Where did they find that passport?

0:15:02.981,0:15:04.241
Here.

0:15:06.922,0:15:09.851
This passport was found here

0:15:11.231,0:15:14.171
and linked the Muslim world to terrorism.

0:15:14.701,0:15:18.031
Had it been a Hindu passport,[br]too bad for the Hindus.

0:15:18.156,0:15:23.336
I tell you it is very important [br]what we have in our head.

0:15:24.477,0:15:27.177
Because what we have[br]in our head is our thoughts.

0:15:27.777,0:15:31.419
Our thoughts shape our actions,[br]

0:15:32.069,0:15:34.209
they influence our feelings.

0:15:34.839,0:15:39.223
So ultimately, I think[br]that is the story in your head

0:15:39.223,0:15:44.693
will decide whether we have more peace[br]or more war in the 21st century.

0:15:44.752,0:15:46.300
Thank you very much.

0:15:46.300,0:15:48.620
(Applause)