WEBVTT

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Let me ask you all a question.

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How much weapons grade nuclear material

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do you think it would take to level
a city the size of San Francisco?

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How many of you think
it would be an amount

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about the size of this suitcase?

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Okay, and how about this minibus?

NOTE Paragraph

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All right. Well actually,
under the right circumstances,

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an amount of highly enriched uranium

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about the size of your morning latte

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would be enough to kill 100,000 people

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instantly.

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Hundreds of thousands of others
would become horribly ill,

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and parts of the city
would be uninhabitable for years,

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if not for decades.

NOTE Paragraph

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But you can forget that nuclear latte,

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because today's nuclear weapons

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are hundreds of times more powerful

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even than those we dropped
on Hiroshima and Nagasaki,

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and even a limited nuclear war
involving say, tens of nuclear weapons,

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could lead to the end
of all life on the planet.

NOTE Paragraph

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So it's really important

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that you know

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that right now we have
over 15,000 nuclear weapons

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in the hands of nine nations,

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and if you live in a city,

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or near a military facility,

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one is likely pointed right at you.

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In fact, if you live in any
of the rural areas

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where nuclear weapons are stored globally,

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one is likely pointed at you.

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About 1,800 of these weapons

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are on high alert,

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which means they can be launched
within 15 minutes

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of a presidential command.

NOTE Paragraph

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So I know this is a bummer of an issue,

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and maybe you have that,
what was it, psychic fatigue

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that we heard about a little bit earlier?

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So I'm going to switch gears
for just a second, and I'm going to talk

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about my imaginary friend,

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who I like to think of as Jasmine,

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just for a moment.

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Jasmine, at the age of 25,

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is part of a generation that is
more politically and socially engaged

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than anything we've seen in 50 years.

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She and her friends think of themselves

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as change agents
and leaders and activists.

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I think of them as Generation Possible.

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They regularly protest
about the issues they care about,

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but nuclear weapons are not one of them,

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which makes sense, because Jasmine
was born in 1991,

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at the end of the Cold War,
so she didn't grow up hearing a lot

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about nuclear weapons.

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She never had to duck and cover
under her desk at school.

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For Jasmine, a fallout shelter
is an app in the Android store.

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Nuclear weapons help win games,

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and that is really a shame,

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because right now, we need
Generation Possible

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to help us make some really important
decisions about nuclear weapons.

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For instance, will we further reduce
our nuclear arsenals globally,

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or will we spend billions,

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maybe a trillion dollars,

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to modernize them so they last
throughout the 21st century,

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so that by the time Jasmine is my age,
she's talking to her children

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and maybe even her grandchildren

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about the threat of nuclear holocaust?

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And if you're paying any attention at all

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to cyberthreats, or for instance
if you've read about the Stuxnet virus,

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or for God's sake, if you've ever
had an email account or a Yahoo account

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or a phone hacked,

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you can imagine the whole new world
of hurt that could be triggered

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by modernization in a period
of cyberwarfare.

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Now, if you're paying attention
to the money,

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a trillion dollars could go a long way

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to feeding and educating
and employing people,

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all of which could reduce the threat
of nuclear war to begin with.

NOTE Paragraph

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So --

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(Applause) --

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this is really crucial right now,

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because nuclear weapons,
they're vulnerable.

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We have solid evidence

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that terrorists are trying
to get ahold of them,

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and just this last spring,
when four retirees

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and two taxi drivers were arrested
in the Republic of Georgia

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for trying to sell nuclear materials
for 200 million dollars,

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they demonstrated that
the black market for this stuff

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is alive and well.

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And it's really important because

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there have been dozens of accidents
involving nuclear weapons,

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and I bet most of us have never heard
anything about them.

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Just here in the United States,

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we've dropped nuclear weapons
on the Carolinas twice.

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In one case, one of the bombs,

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which fell out of an air force plane,

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didn't detonate because the nuclear core
was stored somewhere else on the plane.

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In another case, the weapon
did arm when it hit the ground,

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and five of the switches designed
to keep it from detonating failed.

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Luckily, the sixth one didn't.

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But if that's not enough
to get your attention,

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there was the 1995
Black Brant incident.

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That's when Russian radar technicians

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saw what they thought
was a US nuclear missile

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streaking towards Russian airspace.

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It later turned out to be
a Norwegian rocket

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collecting data about the northern lights.

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But at that time,
Russian President Boris Yeltsin

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came within five minutes

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of launching a full-scale
retaliatory nuclear attack

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against the United States.

NOTE Paragraph

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So, most of the world's nuclear nations

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have committed to getting rid
of these weapons of mass destruction.

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But consider this:

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the treaty on the nonproliferation
of nuclear weapons,

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which is the most widely adopted
arms control treaty in history,

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with 190 signatories,

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sets no specific date by which
the world's nuclear armed nations

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will get rid of their nuclear weapons.

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Now, when John F. Kennedy
sent a man to the moon

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and decided to bring him back,
or decided to do both those things,

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he didn't say, "Hey, whenever
you guys get to it."

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He gave us a deadline.

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He gave us a challenge

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that would have been incredible
just a few years earlier,

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and with that challenge,

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he inspired scientists and marketers,

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astronauts and schoolteachers.

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He gave us a vision.

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But along with that vision,

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he also tried to give us,
and most people don't know this either,

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he tried to give us a partner

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in the form of our fiercest
Cold War rival, the Soviet Union,

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because part of Kennedy's vision
for the Apollo program

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was that it be a cooperation,
not a competition with the Soviets.

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And apparently, Nikita Khrushchev,
the Soviet premier, agreed.

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But before that cooperation
could be realized,

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Kennedy was assassinated

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and that part of the vision was deferred.

NOTE Paragraph

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But the promise of joint innovation

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between these two nuclear superpowers

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wasn't totally extinguished,

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because in 1991, which is the year
that Jasmine was born

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and the Soviet Union fell,

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these two nations engaged in a project

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that genuinely does seem incredible today

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in the truest sense of that world,

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which is that the US sent cash
to the Russians when they needed it most

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to secure loose nuclear materials

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and to employ out-of-work
nuclear scientists.

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They worked alongside American scientists

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to convert weapons-grade uranium

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into the type of fuel that could used
for nuclear power instead.

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They called it Megatons To Megawatts.

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So the result is that for over 20 years,

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our two nations

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had a program that meant that

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one in 10 lightbulbs in the United States

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was essentially fueled
by former Russian warheads.

NOTE Paragraph

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So, together these two nations
did something truly audacious.

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But the good news is

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that the global community has the chance
to do something just as audacious today.

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To get rid of nuclear weapons

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and to end the supply of the materials
required to produce them,

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some experts tell me would take 30 years.

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It would take a renaissance of sorts,

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the kinds of innovation that
for better or worse

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underpinned both the Manhattan Project,
which gave rise to nuclear weapons,

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and the Megatons To Megawatts program.

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It would take design constraints.

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These are fundamental to creativity,

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things like a platform
for international collaboration,

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a date certain, which is
a forcing mechanism,

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and a positive vision
that inspires action.

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It would take us to 2045.

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Now, 2045 happens to be
the 100th anniversary

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of the birth of nuclear weapons
in the New Mexico desert,

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but it's also an important date
for another reason.

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It's predicted to be

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the advent of the singularity,

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a new moment in human development

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where the lines between artificial
intelligence and human intelligence blur,

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where computing and consciousness
become almost indistinguishable,

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and advanced technologies help us solve
the 21st century's greatest problems:

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hunger, energy, poverty,

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ushering in an era of abundance.

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And we all get to go to space on the way
to becoming a multi-planetary species.

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Now, the people who really
believe this vision

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are the first to say they don't yet know
precisely how we're going to get there.

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But the values behind their vision

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and the willingness to ask "how might we?"

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have inspired a generation of innovators.

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They are working backward
from the outcomes they want

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using the creative problem-solving methods
of collaborative design.

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They are busting through obstacles.

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They're redefining what we
all consider possible.

NOTE Paragraph

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But here's the thing:

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that vision of abundance isn't compatible

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with a world that still relies

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on a 20th century nuclear doctrine

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called "mutually assured destruction."

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It has to be about building

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the foundations for the 22nd century.

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It has to be about strategies
for mutually assured prosperity,

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or at the very least,

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mutually assured survival.

NOTE Paragraph

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Now, every day, I get to meet
people who are real pioneers

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in the field of nuclear threats,

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and as you can see, many of them
are young women,

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and they are doing fiercely
interesting stuff,

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like Mareena Robinson Snowden here,
who is developing new ways,

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better ways to detect nuclear warheads,

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which will help us
overcome a critical hurdle

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to international disarmament,

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or Melissa Hanham, who is using
satellite imaging

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to make sense of what's going on

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around far-flung nuclear sites.

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Or we have Beatrice Fihn in Europe,

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who has been campaigning to make
nuclear weapons illegal

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in international courts of law,

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and just won a big victory
at the UN last week.

NOTE Paragraph

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(Applause)

NOTE Paragraph

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And yet, and yet,

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with all of our talk in this culture
about moon shots,

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too few members of Generation Possible

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and those of us who mentor them

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are taking on nuclear weapons.

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It's as if there's a taboo.

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But I remember something that Kennedy said

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that has really stuck with me,

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and that is something to the effect

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that humans can be as big as the solutions
to all the problems we've created.

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No problem of human destiny, he said,

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is beyond human beings.

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I believe that.

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And I bet a lot of you here
believe that too.

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And I know Generation
Possible believes it.

NOTE Paragraph

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So it's time to commit to a date.

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Let's end the nuclear weapons chapter
on the 100th anniversary of its inception.

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After all, by 2045, we will have held
billions of people hostage

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to the threat of nuclear annihilation.

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Surely 100 years will have been enough.

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Surely a century of economic development

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and the development of military strategy

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will have given us better ways
to manage global conflict.

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Surely if ever there was a global
moon shot worth supporting,

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this is it.

NOTE Paragraph

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Now, in the face of real threats,

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for instance North Korea's
recent nuclear weapons test,

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which fly in the face of sanctions,

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reasonable people disagree

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about whether we should maintain
some number of nuclear weapons

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to deter aggression.

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But the question is,
what's the magic number?

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Is it a thousand?

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Is it a hundred? Ten?

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And then we have to ask,

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who should be responsible for them?

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I think we can agree, however,

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that having 15,000 of them represents
a greater global threat

00:13:45.993 --> 00:13:49.000
to Jasmine's generation than a promise.

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So it's time that we make a promise

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of a world in which we've broken
the stranglehold

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that nuclear weapons have
on our imaginations,

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in which we invest
in the creative solutions

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that come from working backward
from the future we desperately want,

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rather than plodding forward
from a present

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that brings all of the mental models
and biases of the past with it.

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It's time that we pledge our resources
as leaders across the spectrum

00:14:17.539 --> 00:14:21.034
to work on this old problem in new ways,

00:14:21.034 --> 00:14:24.206
to ask "How might we?"

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How might we make good on a promise

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of greater security
for Jasmine's generation

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in a world beyond nuclear weapons?

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I truly hope you will join us.

NOTE Paragraph

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Thank you.

NOTE Paragraph

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(Applause)