0:00:00.897,0:00:03.856
Let me ask you all a question.

0:00:04.393,0:00:06.923
How much weapons grade nuclear material

0:00:06.923,0:00:11.650
do you think it would take to level[br]a city the size of San Francisco?

0:00:11.650,0:00:13.521
How many of you think[br]it would be an amount

0:00:13.521,0:00:16.080
about the size of this suitcase?

0:00:16.928,0:00:22.078
Okay, and how about this minibus?

0:00:22.078,0:00:26.392
All right. Well actually,[br]under the right circumstances,

0:00:26.392,0:00:28.685
an amount of highly enriched uranium

0:00:28.685,0:00:31.697
about the size of your morning latte

0:00:31.697,0:00:34.639
would be enough to kill 100,000 people

0:00:34.639,0:00:36.601
instantly.

0:00:36.601,0:00:40.616
Hundreds of thousands of others[br]would become horribly ill,

0:00:40.616,0:00:43.546
and parts of the city[br]would be uninhabitable for years,

0:00:43.546,0:00:45.677
if not for decades.

0:00:45.677,0:00:48.580
But you can forget that nuclear latte,

0:00:48.580,0:00:51.724
because today's nuclear weapons

0:00:51.724,0:00:54.574
are hundreds of times more powerful

0:00:54.574,0:00:58.891
even than those we dropped[br]on Hiroshima and Nagasaki,

0:00:58.891,0:01:04.234
and even a limited nuclear war[br]involving say, tens of nuclear weapons,

0:01:04.234,0:01:08.710
could lead to the end[br]of all life on the planet.

0:01:09.609,0:01:11.243
So it's really important

0:01:11.243,0:01:12.852
that you know

0:01:12.852,0:01:18.174
that right now we have[br]over 15,000 nuclear weapons

0:01:18.174,0:01:20.064
in the hands of nine nations,

0:01:20.064,0:01:22.532
and if you live in a city,

0:01:22.532,0:01:25.063
or near a military facility,

0:01:25.063,0:01:28.243
one is likely pointed right at you.

0:01:28.634,0:01:31.457
In fact, if you live in any[br]of the rural areas

0:01:31.457,0:01:34.064
where nuclear weapons are stored globally,

0:01:34.064,0:01:36.307
one is likely pointed at you.

0:01:36.307,0:01:39.059
About 1,800 of these weapons

0:01:39.059,0:01:40.891
are on high alert,

0:01:40.891,0:01:44.235
which means they can be launched[br]within 15 minutes

0:01:44.235,0:01:48.033
of a presidential command.

0:01:48.033,0:01:51.930
So I know this is a bummer of an issue,

0:01:51.930,0:01:54.713
and maybe you have that,[br]what was it, psychic fatigue

0:01:54.713,0:01:56.616
that we heard about a little bit earlier?

0:01:56.616,0:01:59.368
So I'm going to switch gears[br]for just a second, and I'm going to talk

0:01:59.368,0:02:01.482
about my imaginary friend,

0:02:01.482,0:02:04.427
who I like to think of as Jasmine,

0:02:04.427,0:02:05.797
just for a moment.

0:02:05.797,0:02:08.337
Jasmine, at the age of 25,

0:02:08.337,0:02:12.582
is part of a generation that is[br]more politically and socially engaged

0:02:12.582,0:02:14.939
than anything we've seen in 50 years.

0:02:14.939,0:02:16.815
She and her friends think of themselves

0:02:16.815,0:02:20.247
as change agents[br]and leaders and activists.

0:02:20.247,0:02:24.272
I think of them as Generation Possible.

0:02:24.272,0:02:27.285
They regularly protest[br]about the issues they care about,

0:02:27.285,0:02:30.025
but nuclear weapons are not one of them,

0:02:30.025,0:02:33.767
which makes sense, because Jasmine[br]was born in 1991,

0:02:33.767,0:02:36.820
at the end of the Cold War,[br]so she didn't grow up hearing a lot

0:02:36.820,0:02:38.206
about nuclear weapons.

0:02:38.206,0:02:41.727
She never had to duck and cover[br]under her desk at school.

0:02:41.727,0:02:46.128
For Jasmine, a fallout shelter[br]is an app in the Android store.

0:02:46.128,0:02:49.004
Nuclear weapons help win games,

0:02:49.004,0:02:51.461
and that is really a shame,

0:02:51.461,0:02:54.758
because right now, we need[br]Generation Possible

0:02:54.758,0:02:59.324
to help us make some really important[br]decisions about nuclear weapons.

0:02:59.324,0:03:06.005
For instance, will we further reduce[br]our nuclear arsenals globally,

0:03:06.005,0:03:08.945
or will we spend billions,

0:03:08.945,0:03:11.295
maybe a trillion dollars,

0:03:11.295,0:03:14.640
to modernize them so they last[br]throughout the 21st century,

0:03:14.640,0:03:17.962
so that by the time Jasmine is my age,[br]she's talking to her children

0:03:17.962,0:03:19.916
and maybe even her grandchildren

0:03:19.916,0:03:22.805
about the threat of nuclear holocaust?

0:03:22.805,0:03:24.921
And if you're paying any attention at all

0:03:24.921,0:03:30.174
to cyberthreats, or for instance[br]if you've read about the Stuxnet virus,

0:03:30.174,0:03:33.908
or for God's sake, if you've ever[br]had an email account or a Yahoo account

0:03:33.908,0:03:35.705
or a phone hacked,

0:03:35.705,0:03:39.681
you can imagine the whole new world[br]of hurt that could be triggered

0:03:39.681,0:03:44.103
by modernization in a period[br]of cyberwarfare.

0:03:44.103,0:03:46.343
Now, if you're paying attention[br]to the money,

0:03:46.343,0:03:49.163
a trillion dollars could go a long way

0:03:49.163,0:03:52.507
to feeding and educating[br]and employing people,

0:03:52.507,0:03:56.533
all of which could reduce the threat[br]of nuclear war to begin with.

0:03:56.533,0:03:57.642
So --

0:03:57.642,0:04:00.300
(Applause) --

0:04:01.042,0:04:03.518
this is really crucial right now,

0:04:03.518,0:04:06.908
because nuclear weapons,[br]they're vulnerable.

0:04:06.908,0:04:08.635
We have solid evidence

0:04:08.635,0:04:12.450
that terrorists are trying[br]to get ahold of them,

0:04:12.450,0:04:16.429
and just this last spring,[br]when four retirees

0:04:16.429,0:04:20.249
and two taxi drivers were arrested[br]in the Republic of Georgia

0:04:20.249,0:04:23.711
for trying to sell nuclear materials[br]for 200 million dollars,

0:04:23.711,0:04:26.250
they demonstrated that[br]the black market for this stuff

0:04:26.250,0:04:27.980
is alive and well.

0:04:27.980,0:04:29.846
And it's really important because

0:04:29.846,0:04:34.268
there have been dozens of accidents[br]involving nuclear weapons,

0:04:34.268,0:04:37.084
and I bet most of us have never heard[br]anything about them.

0:04:37.084,0:04:39.153
Just here in the United States,

0:04:39.153,0:04:43.346
we've dropped nuclear weapons[br]on the Carolinas twice.

0:04:43.346,0:04:45.594
In one case, one of the bombs,

0:04:45.594,0:04:47.637
which fell out of an air force plane,

0:04:47.637,0:04:52.158
didn't detonate because the nuclear core[br]was stored somewhere else on the plane.

0:04:52.158,0:04:55.900
In another case, the weapon[br]did arm when it hit the ground,

0:04:55.900,0:05:00.388
and five of the switches designed[br]to keep it from detonating failed.

0:05:01.158,0:05:03.545
Luckily, the sixth one didn't.

0:05:03.545,0:05:06.434
But if that's not enough[br]to get your attention,

0:05:06.434,0:05:10.656
there was the 1995[br]Black Brant incident.

0:05:10.656,0:05:12.883
That's when Russian radar technicians

0:05:12.883,0:05:15.425
saw what they thought[br]was a US nuclear missile

0:05:15.425,0:05:18.228
streaking towards Russian airspace.

0:05:18.228,0:05:21.078
It later turned out to be[br]a Norwegian rocket

0:05:21.078,0:05:23.522
collecting data about the northern lights.

0:05:23.522,0:05:26.289
But at that time,[br]Russian President Boris Yeltsin

0:05:26.289,0:05:28.495
came within five minutes

0:05:28.495,0:05:32.624
of launching a full-scale[br]retaliatory nuclear attack

0:05:32.624,0:05:35.640
against the United States.

0:05:35.640,0:05:40.990
So, most of the world's nuclear nations

0:05:40.990,0:05:45.088
have committed to getting rid[br]of these weapons of mass destruction.

0:05:45.088,0:05:47.867
But consider this:

0:05:47.867,0:05:51.348
the treaty on the nonproliferation[br]of nuclear weapons,

0:05:51.348,0:05:54.808
which is the most widely adopted[br]arms control treaty in history,

0:05:54.808,0:05:57.254
with 190 signatories,

0:05:57.254,0:06:02.837
sets no specific date by which[br]the world's nuclear armed nations

0:06:02.837,0:06:05.397
will get rid of their nuclear weapons.

0:06:05.397,0:06:08.747
Now, when John F. Kennedy[br]sent a man to the moon

0:06:08.747,0:06:11.330
and decided to bring him back,[br]or decided to do both those things,

0:06:11.330,0:06:14.800
he didn't say, "Hey, whenever[br]you guys get to it."

0:06:14.800,0:06:16.916
He gave us a deadline.

0:06:16.916,0:06:18.761
He gave us a challenge

0:06:18.761,0:06:21.676
that would have been incredible[br]just a few years earlier,

0:06:21.676,0:06:23.813
and with that challenge,

0:06:23.813,0:06:26.253
he inspired scientists and marketers,

0:06:26.253,0:06:29.373
astronauts and schoolteachers.

0:06:29.373,0:06:32.380
He gave us a vision.

0:06:32.380,0:06:34.102
But along with that vision,

0:06:34.102,0:06:37.416
he also tried to give us,[br]and most people don't know this either,

0:06:37.416,0:06:39.758
he tried to give us a partner

0:06:39.758,0:06:45.131
in the form of our fiercest[br]Cold War rival, the Soviet Union,

0:06:45.131,0:06:47.931
because part of Kennedy's vision[br]for the Apollo program

0:06:47.931,0:06:51.975
was that it be a cooperation,[br]not a competition with the Soviets.

0:06:51.975,0:06:56.150
And apparently, Nikita Khrushchev,[br]the Soviet premier, agreed.

0:06:56.150,0:06:59.489
But before that cooperation[br]could be realized,

0:06:59.489,0:07:01.183
Kennedy was assassinated

0:07:01.183,0:07:04.026
and that part of the vision was deferred.

0:07:04.026,0:07:07.596
But the promise of joint innovation

0:07:07.596,0:07:09.673
between these two nuclear superpowers

0:07:09.673,0:07:12.512
wasn't totally extinguished,

0:07:12.512,0:07:16.428
because in 1991, which is the year[br]that Jasmine was born

0:07:16.428,0:07:18.937
and the Soviet Union fell,

0:07:18.937,0:07:21.300
these two nations engaged in a project

0:07:21.300,0:07:24.283
that genuinely does seem incredible today

0:07:24.283,0:07:26.948
in the truest sense of that world,

0:07:26.948,0:07:31.432
which is that the US sent cash[br]to the Russians when they needed it most

0:07:31.432,0:07:34.211
to secure loose nuclear materials

0:07:34.211,0:07:37.261
and to employ out-of-work[br]nuclear scientists.

0:07:37.261,0:07:41.339
They worked alongside American scientists

0:07:41.339,0:07:44.341
to convert weapons-grade uranium

0:07:44.341,0:07:48.244
into the type of fuel that could used[br]for nuclear power instead.

0:07:48.244,0:07:52.202
They called it Megatons To Megawatts.

0:07:52.202,0:07:55.007
So the result is that for over 20 years,

0:07:55.007,0:07:56.895
our two nations

0:07:56.895,0:07:59.265
had a program that meant that

0:07:59.265,0:08:02.030
one in 10 lightbulbs in the United States

0:08:02.030,0:08:06.691
was essentially fueled[br]by former Russian warheads.

0:08:07.530,0:08:11.905
So, together these two nations[br]did something truly audacious.

0:08:11.905,0:08:13.728
But the good news is

0:08:13.728,0:08:19.663
that the global community has the chance[br]to do something just as audacious today.

0:08:19.663,0:08:23.591
To get rid of nuclear weapons

0:08:23.591,0:08:28.010
and to end the supply of the materials[br]required to produce them,

0:08:28.010,0:08:31.326
some experts tell me would take 30 years.

0:08:31.326,0:08:33.426
It would take a renaissance of sorts,

0:08:33.426,0:08:35.884
the kinds of innovation that[br]for better or worse

0:08:35.884,0:08:40.147
underpinned both the Manhattan Project,[br]which gave rise to nuclear weapons,

0:08:40.147,0:08:43.160
and the Megatons To Megawatts program.

0:08:43.160,0:08:45.665
It would take design constraints.

0:08:45.665,0:08:48.407
These are fundamental to creativity,

0:08:48.407,0:08:52.187
things like a platform[br]for international collaboration,

0:08:52.187,0:08:56.511
a date certain, which is[br]a forcing mechanism,

0:08:56.511,0:09:00.911
and a positive vision[br]that inspires action.

0:09:00.911,0:09:03.958
It would take us to 2045.

0:09:03.958,0:09:07.893
Now, 2045 happens to be[br]the 100th anniversary

0:09:07.893,0:09:12.656
of the birth of nuclear weapons[br]in the New Mexico desert,

0:09:12.656,0:09:17.245
but it's also an important date[br]for another reason.

0:09:17.245,0:09:18.677
It's predicted to be

0:09:18.677,0:09:21.011
the advent of the singularity,

0:09:21.011,0:09:23.526
a new moment in human development

0:09:23.526,0:09:28.918
where the lines between artificial[br]intelligence and human intelligence blur,

0:09:28.918,0:09:33.455
where computing and consciousness[br]become almost indistinguishable,

0:09:33.455,0:09:39.214
and advanced technologies help us solve[br]the 21st century's greatest problems:

0:09:39.214,0:09:42.371
hunger, energy, poverty,

0:09:42.371,0:09:46.644
ushering in an era of abundance.

0:09:46.644,0:09:51.413
And we all get to go to space on the way[br]to becoming a multi-planetary species.

0:09:51.413,0:09:54.532
Now, the people who really[br]believe this vision

0:09:54.532,0:09:56.174
are the first to say they don't yet know[br]precisely how we're going to get there.

0:09:56.174,0:09:58.295
But the values behind their vision

0:09:58.295,0:10:05.957
and the willingness to ask "how might we?"

0:10:05.957,0:10:08.884
have inspired a generation of innovators.

0:10:08.884,0:10:12.502
They are working backward[br]from the outcomes they want

0:10:12.502,0:10:16.729
using the creative problem-solving methods[br]of collaborative design.

0:10:16.729,0:10:19.117
They are busting through obstacles.

0:10:19.117,0:10:23.760
They're redefining what we[br]all consider possible.

0:10:23.760,0:10:25.870
But here's the thing:

0:10:25.870,0:10:28.584
that vision of abundance isn't compatible

0:10:28.584,0:10:31.842
with a world that still relies

0:10:31.842,0:10:35.754
on a 20th century nuclear doctrine

0:10:35.754,0:10:40.848
called "mutually assured destruction."

0:10:40.848,0:10:43.443
It has to be about building

0:10:43.443,0:10:46.686
the foundations for the 22nd century.

0:10:46.686,0:10:51.864
It has to be about strategies[br]for mutually assured prosperity,

0:10:51.864,0:10:54.124
or at the very least,

0:10:54.124,0:10:57.382
mutually assured survival.

0:10:57.382,0:11:02.347
Now, every day, I get to meet[br]people who are real pioneers

0:11:02.347,0:11:04.363
in the field of nuclear threats,

0:11:04.363,0:11:07.888
and as you can see, many of them[br]are young women,

0:11:07.888,0:11:11.162
and they are doing fiercely[br]interesting stuff,

0:11:11.162,0:11:14.801
like Mareena Robinson Snowden here,[br]who is developing new ways,

0:11:14.801,0:11:17.628
better ways to detect nuclear warheads,

0:11:17.628,0:11:19.675
which will help us[br]overcome a critical hurdle

0:11:19.675,0:11:21.776
to international disarmament,

0:11:21.776,0:11:24.879
or Melissa Hanham, who is using[br]satellite imaging

0:11:24.879,0:11:26.576
to make sense of what's going on

0:11:26.576,0:11:29.129
around far-flung nuclear sites.

0:11:29.129,0:11:31.849
Or we have Beatrice Fihn in Europe,

0:11:31.849,0:11:36.146
who has been campaigning to make[br]nuclear weapons illegal

0:11:36.146,0:11:38.084
in international courts of law,

0:11:38.084,0:11:40.810
and just won a big victory[br]at the UN last week.

0:11:40.810,0:11:43.235
(Applause)

0:11:44.202,0:11:47.429
And yet, and yet,

0:11:47.429,0:11:51.399
with all of our talk in this culture[br]about moon shots,

0:11:51.399,0:11:53.742
too few members of Generation Possible

0:11:53.742,0:11:55.991
and those of us who mentor them

0:11:55.991,0:11:58.659
are taking on nuclear weapons.

0:11:58.659,0:12:01.899
It's as if there's a taboo.

0:12:01.899,0:12:04.494
But I remember something that Kennedy said

0:12:04.494,0:12:06.597
that has really stuck with me,

0:12:06.597,0:12:08.208
and that is something to the effect

0:12:08.208,0:12:12.551
that humans can be as big as the solutions[br]to all the problems we've created.

0:12:12.551,0:12:15.918
No problem of human destiny, he said,

0:12:15.918,0:12:19.535
is beyond human beings.

0:12:19.535,0:12:21.504
I believe that.

0:12:21.504,0:12:24.742
And I bet a lot of you here[br]believe that too.

0:12:24.742,0:12:28.199
And I know Generation[br]Possible believes it.

0:12:28.199,0:12:32.380
So it's time to commit to a date.

0:12:32.380,0:12:40.932
Let's end the nuclear weapons chapter[br]on the 100th anniversary of its inception.

0:12:40.932,0:12:45.869
After all, by 2045, we will have held[br]billions of people hostage

0:12:45.869,0:12:48.167
to the threat of nuclear annihilation.

0:12:48.167,0:12:51.045
Surely 100 years will have been enough.

0:12:51.045,0:12:55.367
Surely a century of economic development

0:12:55.367,0:12:58.244
and the development of military strategy

0:12:58.244,0:13:02.953
will have given us better ways[br]to manage global conflict.

0:13:02.953,0:13:07.580
Surely if ever there was a global[br]moon shot worth supporting,

0:13:07.580,0:13:09.722
this is it.

0:13:09.722,0:13:12.634
Now, in the face of real threats,

0:13:12.634,0:13:15.504
for instance North Korea's[br]recent nuclear weapons test,

0:13:15.504,0:13:17.908
which fly in the face of sanctions,

0:13:17.908,0:13:20.018
reasonable people disagree

0:13:20.018,0:13:23.849
about whether we should maintain[br]some number of nuclear weapons

0:13:23.849,0:13:26.041
to deter aggression.

0:13:26.041,0:13:30.205
But the question is,[br]what's the magic number?

0:13:30.205,0:13:31.957
Is it a thousand?

0:13:31.957,0:13:35.421
Is it a hundred? Ten?

0:13:35.421,0:13:37.194
And then we have to ask,

0:13:37.194,0:13:40.236
who should be responsible for them?

0:13:40.236,0:13:41.732
I think we can agree, however,

0:13:41.732,0:13:45.993
that having 15,000 of them represents[br]a greater global threat

0:13:45.993,0:13:49.000
to Jasmine's generation than a promise.

0:13:49.000,0:13:52.026
So it's time that we make a promise

0:13:52.026,0:13:54.991
of a world in which we've broken[br]the stranglehold

0:13:54.991,0:13:58.779
that nuclear weapons have[br]on our imaginations,

0:13:58.779,0:14:01.566
in which we invest[br]in the creative solutions

0:14:01.566,0:14:05.459
that come from working backward[br]from the future we desperately want,

0:14:05.459,0:14:07.731
rather than plodding forward[br]from a present

0:14:07.731,0:14:12.565
that brings all of the mental models[br]and biases of the past with it.

0:14:12.565,0:14:17.539
It's time that we pledge our resources[br]as leaders across the spectrum

0:14:17.539,0:14:21.034
to work on this old problem in new ways,

0:14:21.034,0:14:24.206
to ask "How might we?"

0:14:24.206,0:14:26.621
How might we make good on a promise

0:14:26.621,0:14:30.120
of greater security[br]for Jasmine's generation

0:14:30.120,0:14:33.675
in a world beyond nuclear weapons?

0:14:33.675,0:14:37.621
I truly hope you will join us.

0:14:37.621,0:14:40.008
Thank you.

0:14:40.008,0:14:46.181
(Applause)