[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:01.08,0:00:04.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Since 2009, the world has been stuck
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.98,0:00:10.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on a single narrative around\Na coming global food crisis,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:10.07,0:00:13.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and what we need to do to avoid it.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:13.38,0:00:18.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How do we feed\Nnine billion people by 2050?
Dialogue: 0,0:00:18.63,0:00:23.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every conference, podcast,\Nand dialogue around global food security
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.24,0:00:24.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,starts with this question
Dialogue: 0,0:00:24.92,0:00:26.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and goes on to answer it
Dialogue: 0,0:00:26.89,0:00:32.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by saying we need to produce\N70 percent more food.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:32.92,0:00:36.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The 2050 narrative started to evolve
Dialogue: 0,0:00:36.24,0:00:38.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,shortly after global food prices
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.56,0:00:41.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,hit all-time highs in 2008.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.68,0:00:44.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People were suffering and struggling,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:44.45,0:00:46.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,governments and world leaders
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.65,0:00:48.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,needed to show us\Nthat they were paying attention
Dialogue: 0,0:00:48.72,0:00:51.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and were working to solve it.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:51.16,0:00:55.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The thing is, 2050\Nis so far into the future
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.74,0:00:58.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we can't even relate to it,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.60,0:01:00.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and more importantly,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:00.28,0:01:02.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we keep doing what we're doing,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:02.54,0:01:06.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's going to hit us\Na lot sooner than that.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:06.36,0:01:10.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I believe we need to ask\Na different question.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:10.56,0:01:12.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The answer to that question
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.90,0:01:17.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,needs to be framed differently.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.35,0:01:20.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,If we can reframe the old narrative
Dialogue: 0,0:01:20.12,0:01:22.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and replace it with new numbers
Dialogue: 0,0:01:22.64,0:01:25.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that tell us a more complete pictures,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.45,0:01:29.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,numbers that everyone can understand
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.01,0:01:31.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and relate to,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:31.63,0:01:34.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can avoid the crisis altogether.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.81,0:01:39.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was a commodities trader\Nin my past life,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:39.81,0:01:42.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and one of the things\Nthat I learned trading
Dialogue: 0,0:01:42.80,0:01:45.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that every market has a tipping point,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:45.61,0:01:49.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the point at which\Nchange occurs so rapidly
Dialogue: 0,0:01:49.17,0:01:51.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that it impacts the world
Dialogue: 0,0:01:51.13,0:01:54.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and things change forever.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:54.33,0:01:58.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Think of the last financial crisis,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.04,0:02:01.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or the dot com crash.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.14,0:02:04.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So here's my concern.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.83,0:02:07.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We could have a tipping point
Dialogue: 0,0:02:07.09,0:02:09.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in global food and agriculture
Dialogue: 0,0:02:09.16,0:02:11.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if surging demand
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.19,0:02:18.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,surpasses the agricultural system's\Nstructural capacity to produce food.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:18.59,0:02:23.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This means at this point supply\Ncan no longer keep up with demand
Dialogue: 0,0:02:23.07,0:02:25.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,despite exploding prices,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:25.69,0:02:30.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,unless we can commit\Nto some type of structural change.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:30.50,0:02:32.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This time around,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:32.52,0:02:35.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it won't be about stock markets and money.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:35.50,0:02:36.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's about people.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:36.77,0:02:38.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,People could starve
Dialogue: 0,0:02:38.32,0:02:41.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and governments may fall.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:41.49,0:02:45.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This question of at what point\Ndoes supply struggle
Dialogue: 0,0:02:45.91,0:02:47.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to keep up with surging demand
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.73,0:02:51.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is one that started off as an interest\Nfor me while I was trading
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.35,0:02:54.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and became an absolute obsession.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.18,0:02:57.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It went from interest to obsession
Dialogue: 0,0:02:57.16,0:03:00.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when I realized through my research\Nhow broken the system was,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:00.82,0:03:06.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and how very little data was being used\Nto make such critical decisions.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:06.24,0:03:10.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's the point I decided to walk away\Nfrom a career on Wall Street
Dialogue: 0,0:03:10.32,0:03:12.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and start an entrepreneurial journey
Dialogue: 0,0:03:12.72,0:03:15.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to start Gro Intelligence.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:15.64,0:03:18.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At Gro, we focus on bringing this data
Dialogue: 0,0:03:18.80,0:03:21.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and doing the work to make it actionable,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:21.58,0:03:24.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to empower decision-makers at every level.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:24.81,0:03:27.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But doing this work,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:27.86,0:03:29.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we also realized that the world,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.12,0:03:30.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not just world leaders,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:30.57,0:03:34.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but businesses and citizens\Nlike every single person in this room,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:34.82,0:03:37.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lacked an actionable guide
Dialogue: 0,0:03:37.50,0:03:42.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on how we can avoid a coming\Nglobal food security crisis.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.62,0:03:45.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so we built a model,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:45.04,0:03:47.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,leveraging the petabytes\Nof data we sit on,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:47.71,0:03:50.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we solved for the tipping point.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:50.83,0:03:54.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, no one knows\Nwe've been working on this problem,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:54.39,0:03:56.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and this is the first time
Dialogue: 0,0:03:56.13,0:04:01.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I'm sharing what we discovered.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.09,0:04:03.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We discovered that the tipping point
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.06,0:04:06.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is actually a decade from now.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.62,0:04:09.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We discovered that the world
Dialogue: 0,0:04:09.41,0:04:13.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will be short 214 trillion calories
Dialogue: 0,0:04:13.71,0:04:17.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by 2027.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:17.74,0:04:22.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The world is not in a position\Nto fill this gap.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:22.71,0:04:25.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, you'll notice
Dialogue: 0,0:04:25.18,0:04:29.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the way I'm framing this\Nis different from how I started,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:29.47,0:04:31.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and that's intentional, because\Nuntil now, this problem
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.76,0:04:35.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has been quantified using mass:
Dialogue: 0,0:04:35.02,0:04:37.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think kilograms, tons, hectograms,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:37.76,0:04:40.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whatever your unit of choice is in mass.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:40.62,0:04:43.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why do we talk about food\Nin terms of weight?
Dialogue: 0,0:04:43.61,0:04:45.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because it's easy.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.08,0:04:48.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can look at a photograph\Nand determine tonnage on a ship
Dialogue: 0,0:04:48.59,0:04:50.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,by using a simple pocket calculator.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.73,0:04:54.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can weigh trucks,\Nairplanes and oxcarts.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.16,0:04:59.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what we care about\Nin food is nutritional value.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:59.00,0:05:02.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not all foods are created equal,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:02.52,0:05:05.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,even if they weigh the same.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:05.13,0:05:07.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This I learned firsthand
Dialogue: 0,0:05:07.50,0:05:11.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when I moved from Ethiopia\Nto the US for university.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:11.09,0:05:13.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Upon my return back home,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:13.64,0:05:16.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,my father, who was so excited to see me,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:16.75,0:05:21.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,greeted me by asking why I was fat.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:21.28,0:05:25.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, turns out that eating
Dialogue: 0,0:05:25.13,0:05:31.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,approximately the same amount of food\Nas I did in Ethiopia, but in America,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:31.86,0:05:36.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,had actually lent\Na certain fullness to my figure.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.09,0:05:41.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is why we should care about calories,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.68,0:05:42.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not about mass.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:42.92,0:05:45.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is calories which sustain us.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:47.15,0:05:52.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So 214 trillion calories\Nis a very large number,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:52.42,0:05:55.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not even the most dedicated of us
Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.86,0:05:59.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,think in the hundreds\Nof trillions of calories.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:59.23,0:06:02.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So let me break this down differently.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.19,0:06:05.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,An alternative way to think about this
Dialogue: 0,0:06:05.46,0:06:08.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is to think about it in Big Macs.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:08.50,0:06:11.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,214 trillion calories.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:11.28,0:06:14.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A single Big Mac has 563 calories.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:14.12,0:06:20.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That means the world will be short\N379 billion Big Macs in 2027.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.52,0:06:24.37,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That is more Big Macs\Nthan McDonald's has ever produced.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:26.22,0:06:30.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So how did we get\Nto these numbers in the first place?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:30.34,0:06:32.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They're not made up.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:32.20,0:06:34.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This map shows you
Dialogue: 0,0:06:34.58,0:06:37.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where the world was 40 years ago.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:37.62,0:06:41.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It shows you net calorie gaps\Nin every country in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:41.57,0:06:42.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, simply put,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:42.84,0:06:46.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this is just calories\Nconsumed in that country
Dialogue: 0,0:06:46.02,0:06:49.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,minus calories produced\Nin that same country.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.41,0:06:51.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is not a statement\Non malnutrition or anything else.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:51.85,0:06:55.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's simply saying how many calories\Nare consumed in a single year
Dialogue: 0,0:06:55.93,0:06:57.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,minus how many are produced.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:57.92,0:07:01.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Blue countries are net calorie exporters,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.28,0:07:02.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or self-sufficient.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:02.71,0:07:05.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They have some in storage for a rainy day.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.36,0:07:08.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Red countries are net calorie importers.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:08.19,0:07:10.01,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The deeper, the brighter the red,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.01,0:07:12.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more you're importing.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.47,0:07:16.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,40 years ago, such few countries\Nwere net exporters of calories,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:16.87,0:07:19.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I could count them with one hand.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:19.60,0:07:21.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most of the African continent,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:21.49,0:07:24.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Europe, most of Asia,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:24.39,0:07:26.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,South America excluding Argentina,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:26.68,0:07:28.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,were all net importers of calories.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:28.88,0:07:32.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And what's surprising is that China\Nused to actually be food self-sufficient.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:32.99,0:07:36.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India was a big net importer of calories.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:36.86,0:07:39.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,40 years later, this is today.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:40.34,0:07:44.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see the drastic transformation\Nthat's occurred in the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.32,0:07:47.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Brazil has emerged\Nas an agricultural powerhouse.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:47.85,0:07:51.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Europe is dominant in global agriculture.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:51.10,0:07:54.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India has actually flipped\Nfrom red to blue.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:54.35,0:07:56.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's become food self-sufficient.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:56.40,0:07:58.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And China went from that light blue
Dialogue: 0,0:07:58.70,0:08:02.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the brightest red\Nthat you see on this map.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:02.57,0:08:06.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How did we get here? What happened?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.24,0:08:09.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So this chart shows you India and Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.76,0:08:12.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Blue line is India, red line is Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.89,0:08:16.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,How is it that two regions\Nthat started off so similarly
Dialogue: 0,0:08:16.92,0:08:19.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in such similar trajectories
Dialogue: 0,0:08:19.02,0:08:21.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,take such different paths?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:21.21,0:08:24.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India had a green revolution.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:24.31,0:08:28.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Not a single African country\Nhad a green revolution.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:28.86,0:08:29.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The net outcome?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.80,0:08:31.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India is food self-sufficient
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.36,0:08:34.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in the past decade has actually\Nbeen exporting calories.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.73,0:08:39.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The African continent now imports\Nover 300 trillion calories a year.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:39.54,0:08:42.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then we add China, the green line.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:42.35,0:08:47.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Remember the switch\Nfrom the blue to the bright red?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.38,0:08:48.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What happened, and when did it happen?
Dialogue: 0,0:08:48.73,0:08:53.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China seemed to be\Non a very similar path to India
Dialogue: 0,0:08:53.64,0:08:55.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,until the start of the 21st century,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.99,0:08:58.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where it suddenly flipped.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:58.57,0:09:00.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,A young and growing population
Dialogue: 0,0:09:00.62,0:09:03.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,combined with significant economic growth
Dialogue: 0,0:09:03.60,0:09:06.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,made its mark with a big bang,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.27,0:09:09.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and no one in the markets saw it coming.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:09.74,0:09:13.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This flip was everything\Nto global agricultural markets.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:13.53,0:09:16.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Luckily now, South America
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.11,0:09:21.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,was starting to boom\Nat the same time as China's rise,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.54,0:09:26.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and so therefore, supply and demand\Nwere still somewhat balanced.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:26.58,0:09:28.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the question becomes,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:28.90,0:09:31.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where do we go from here?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:31.51,0:09:33.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Oddly enough,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.33,0:09:35.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it's not a new story,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:35.63,0:09:39.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,except this time\Nit's not just a story of China.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:39.50,0:09:42.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's a continuation of China,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.12,0:09:44.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an amplification of Africa,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:44.05,0:09:46.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a paradigm shift in India.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:46.90,0:09:51.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By 2023, Africa's population\Nis forecasted to overtake that
Dialogue: 0,0:09:51.78,0:09:54.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of India's and China's.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:54.68,0:09:57.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By 2023, these three regions combined
Dialogue: 0,0:09:57.08,0:10:01.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,will make up over half\Nthe world's population.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:01.23,0:10:05.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This crossover point starts to present\Nreally interesting challenges
Dialogue: 0,0:10:05.70,0:10:07.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for global food security,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:07.52,0:10:12.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and a few years later,\Nwe're hit hard with that reality.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.15,0:10:17.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What does the world look like in 10 years?
Dialogue: 0,0:10:17.34,0:10:21.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So far, as I mentioned,\NIndia has been food self-sufficient.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.22,0:10:25.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Most forecasters predict\Nthat this will continue.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:25.46,0:10:27.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We disagree.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:27.23,0:10:32.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India will soon become\Na net importer of calories.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.11,0:10:35.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This will be driven both by the fact\Nthat demand is growing
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.33,0:10:38.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from a population growth standpoint\Nplus economic growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.51,0:10:40.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It will be driven by both.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:40.32,0:10:42.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And even if you have\Noptimistic assumptions
Dialogue: 0,0:10:42.68,0:10:44.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,around production growth,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:44.50,0:10:47.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it will make that slight flip.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:47.32,0:10:51.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That slight flip can have\Nhuge implications.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:51.92,0:10:56.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Next, Africa will continue\Nto be a net importer of calories,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:56.73,0:11:00.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,again driven by population growth\Nand economic growth.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.39,0:11:04.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is again assuming optimistic\Nproduction growth assumptions.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:04.32,0:11:05.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Then China,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:05.61,0:11:08.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,where population is flattening out,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.04,0:11:10.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,calorie consumption will explode
Dialogue: 0,0:11:10.41,0:11:13.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the types of calories consumed
Dialogue: 0,0:11:13.34,0:11:17.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,are also starting to be\Nhigher calorie content foods.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:17.94,0:11:20.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so therefore,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.15,0:11:21.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these three regions combined
Dialogue: 0,0:11:21.59,0:11:24.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,start to present a really interesting\Nchallenge for the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.57,0:11:29.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Until now, countries with calorie deficits
Dialogue: 0,0:11:29.10,0:11:31.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,have been able to meet these deficits
Dialogue: 0,0:11:31.70,0:11:33.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from importing from surplus regions.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:33.98,0:11:37.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,By surplus regions, I'm talking about
Dialogue: 0,0:11:37.04,0:11:39.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,North America, South America and Europe.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:39.99,0:11:42.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This line chart over here shows you
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.38,0:11:46.77,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the growth and the projected growth\Nover the next decade of production
Dialogue: 0,0:11:46.77,0:11:49.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from North America,\NSouth America and Europe.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:49.68,0:11:50.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What it doesn't show you
Dialogue: 0,0:11:50.86,0:11:54.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that most of this growth is actually\Ngoing to come from South America,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.66,0:11:56.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and most of this growth
Dialogue: 0,0:11:56.32,0:11:59.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is going to come at the huge cost
Dialogue: 0,0:11:59.22,0:12:02.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of deforestation.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:02.42,0:12:06.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And so when you look at\Nthe combined demand increase
Dialogue: 0,0:12:06.17,0:12:10.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,coming from India, China\Nand the African continent,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:10.48,0:12:14.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and look at it versus the combined\Nincrease in production coming from India,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.39,0:12:19.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China, the African continent,\NNorth America, South America and Europe,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.56,0:12:25.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,you are left with\Na 214 trillion calorie deficit,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:25.04,0:12:26.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,one we can't produce.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:26.73,0:12:30.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And this, by the way, is actually assuming\Nwe take all the extra calories
Dialogue: 0,0:12:30.57,0:12:33.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,produced in North America,\NSouth America and Europe
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.20,0:12:39.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and export them solely\Nto India, China and Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:39.52,0:12:43.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What I just presented to you\Nis a vision of an impossible world.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:43.79,0:12:45.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can do something to change that.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:45.100,0:12:48.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can change consumption patterns,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:48.90,0:12:51.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can reduce food waste,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:51.26,0:12:54.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or we can make a bold commitment
Dialogue: 0,0:12:54.78,0:12:57.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to increasing yields exponentially.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:57.96,0:13:00.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now I'm not going to go into discussing
Dialogue: 0,0:13:00.50,0:13:02.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,changing consumption patterns\Nor reducing food waste,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.60,0:13:05.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because those conversations have been\Ngoing on for some time now.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:05.10,0:13:06.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nothing has happened.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:06.73,0:13:08.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Nothing has happened
Dialogue: 0,0:13:08.23,0:13:10.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because those arguments
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.21,0:13:13.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ask the surplus regions\Nto change their behavior
Dialogue: 0,0:13:13.45,0:13:17.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on behalf of deficit regions.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.02,0:13:19.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Waiting for others\Nto change their behavior
Dialogue: 0,0:13:19.72,0:13:22.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on your behalf for your survival
Dialogue: 0,0:13:22.20,0:13:23.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is a terrible idea.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.79,0:13:25.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's unproductive.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:25.82,0:13:28.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I'd like to suggest an alternative
Dialogue: 0,0:13:28.63,0:13:31.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that comes from the red regions.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:31.69,0:13:34.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China, India, Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.66,0:13:37.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,China is constrained in terms\Nof how much more land it actually has
Dialogue: 0,0:13:37.87,0:13:39.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,available for agriculture,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:39.45,0:13:43.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it has massive water\Nresource availability issues.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:43.24,0:13:48.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So the answer really lies\Nin India and in Africa.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.06,0:13:52.100,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India has some upside in terms\Nof potential yield increases.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:52.100,0:13:55.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now this is the gap\Nbetween its current yield
Dialogue: 0,0:13:55.32,0:13:59.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the theoretical\Nmaximum yield it can achieve.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:59.80,0:14:03.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It has some unfarmed\Narable land remaining, but not much,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:03.26,0:14:06.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India is quite land constrained.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:06.48,0:14:09.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now the African continent,\Non the other hand,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:09.41,0:14:12.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has vast amounts of arable land remaining
Dialogue: 0,0:14:12.42,0:14:16.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and significant\Nupside potential in yields.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:16.23,0:14:18.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Somewhat simplified picture here,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:18.89,0:14:23.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but if you look at sub-Saharan\NAfrican yields in corn today,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:23.56,0:14:28.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they are where North American\Nyields were in 1940.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:28.96,0:14:32.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We don't have 70-plus years\Nto figure this out,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:32.82,0:14:35.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so it means we need to try something new
Dialogue: 0,0:14:35.23,0:14:38.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we need to try something different.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:38.66,0:14:42.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The solution starts with reforms.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:42.13,0:14:46.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We need to reform and commercialize
Dialogue: 0,0:14:46.14,0:14:48.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the agricultural industries in Africa
Dialogue: 0,0:14:48.74,0:14:50.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in India.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:50.56,0:14:52.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, by commercialization,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:52.42,0:14:55.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,commercialization is not about\Ncommercial farming alone.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.88,0:14:58.87,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Commercialization is about leveraging data
Dialogue: 0,0:14:58.87,0:15:00.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to craft better policies,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.71,0:15:02.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to improve infrastructure,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:02.66,0:15:04.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to lower the transportation costs,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:04.36,0:15:08.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to completely reform\Nbanking and insurance industries.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:08.72,0:15:11.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Commercialization is about\Ntaking agriculture
Dialogue: 0,0:15:11.66,0:15:15.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,from too risky an endeavor\Nto one where fortunes can be made.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:15.85,0:15:19.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Commercialization\Nis not about just farmers.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:19.12,0:15:24.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Commercialization is about\Nthe entire agricultural system.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:24.66,0:15:28.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But commercialization\Nalso means confronting the fact
Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.98,0:15:32.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we can no longer place\Nthe burden of growth
Dialogue: 0,0:15:32.54,0:15:36.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on small-scale farmers alone,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:36.42,0:15:42.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and accepting that commercial farms\Nand the introduction of commercial farms
Dialogue: 0,0:15:42.08,0:15:44.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,could provide certain economies of scale
Dialogue: 0,0:15:44.84,0:15:48.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that even small-scale\Nfarmers can leverage.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:48.52,0:15:52.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It is not about small-scale farming\Nor commercial agriculture,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:52.40,0:15:53.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or big agriculture.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:53.92,0:15:59.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We can create the first successful models\Nof the coexistence and success
Dialogue: 0,0:15:59.32,0:16:03.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of small-scale farming alongside\Ncommercial agriculture.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:03.18,0:16:06.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This is because, for the first time ever,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:06.62,0:16:09.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the most critical tool\Nfor success in the industry --
Dialogue: 0,0:16:09.88,0:16:11.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,data and knowledge --
Dialogue: 0,0:16:11.57,0:16:14.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is becoming cheaper by the day.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:14.92,0:16:18.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And very soon, it won't matter\Nhow much money you have
Dialogue: 0,0:16:18.24,0:16:19.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or how big you are
Dialogue: 0,0:16:19.95,0:16:24.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to make optimal decisions\Nand maximize probability of success
Dialogue: 0,0:16:24.17,0:16:27.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in reaching your intended goal.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:27.65,0:16:31.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Companies like Gro are working really,\Nreally hard to make this a reality.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:31.93,0:16:36.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if we can commit\Nto this new, bold initiative,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:36.45,0:16:38.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to this new, bold change,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:38.63,0:16:42.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not only can we solve\Nthe 214 trillion gap
Dialogue: 0,0:16:42.36,0:16:43.92,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that I talked about,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:43.92,0:16:47.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we can actually set the world\Non a whole new path.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:47.18,0:16:51.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,India can remain food self-sufficient,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:51.35,0:16:53.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and Africa can emerge
Dialogue: 0,0:16:53.08,0:16:57.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,as the world's next dark blue region.
Dialogue: 0,0:16:57.50,0:16:59.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The new question is,
Dialogue: 0,0:16:59.83,0:17:01.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how do we produce
Dialogue: 0,0:17:01.48,0:17:03.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,214 trillion calories
Dialogue: 0,0:17:03.93,0:17:09.08,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to feed 8.3 billion people by 2027?
Dialogue: 0,0:17:09.08,0:17:11.22,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have the solution.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:11.22,0:17:13.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We just need to act on it.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:13.72,0:17:15.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:17:15.59,0:17:20.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)