0:00:01.078,0:00:04.985
Since 2009, the world has been stuck

0:00:04.985,0:00:10.067
on a single narrative around[br]a coming global food crisis,

0:00:10.067,0:00:13.380
and what we need to do to avoid it.

0:00:13.380,0:00:18.634
How do we feed[br]nine billion people by 2050?

0:00:18.634,0:00:23.243
Every conference, podcast,[br]and dialogue around global food security

0:00:23.243,0:00:24.915
starts with this question

0:00:24.915,0:00:26.892
and goes on to answer it

0:00:26.892,0:00:32.923
by saying we need to produce[br]70 percent more food.

0:00:32.923,0:00:36.244
The 2050 narrative started to evolve

0:00:36.244,0:00:38.561
shortly after global food prices

0:00:38.561,0:00:41.675
hit all-time highs in 2008.

0:00:41.675,0:00:44.453
People were suffering and struggling,

0:00:44.453,0:00:46.649
governments and world leaders

0:00:46.649,0:00:48.718
needed to show us[br]that they were paying attention

0:00:48.718,0:00:51.162
and were working to solve it.

0:00:51.162,0:00:55.741
The thing is, 2050[br]is so far into the future

0:00:55.741,0:00:58.597
that we can't even relate to it,

0:00:58.597,0:01:00.277
and more importantly,

0:01:00.277,0:01:02.538
if we keep doing what we're doing,

0:01:02.538,0:01:06.365
it's going to hit us[br]a lot sooner than that.

0:01:06.365,0:01:10.559
I believe we need to ask[br]a different question.

0:01:10.559,0:01:12.902
The answer to that question

0:01:12.902,0:01:17.349
needs to be framed differently.

0:01:17.349,0:01:20.117
If we can reframe the old narrative

0:01:20.117,0:01:22.645
and replace it with new numbers

0:01:22.645,0:01:25.447
that tell us a more complete pictures,

0:01:25.447,0:01:29.014
numbers that everyone can understand

0:01:29.014,0:01:31.629
and relate to,

0:01:31.629,0:01:34.283
we can avoid the crisis altogether.

0:01:36.812,0:01:39.808
I was a commodities trader[br]in my past life,

0:01:39.808,0:01:42.805
and one of the things[br]that I learned trading

0:01:42.805,0:01:45.606
is that every market has a tipping point,

0:01:45.606,0:01:49.173
the point at which[br]change occurs so rapidly

0:01:49.173,0:01:51.127
that it impacts the world

0:01:51.127,0:01:54.329
and things change forever.

0:01:54.329,0:01:58.044
Think of the last financial crisis,

0:01:58.044,0:02:01.142
or the dot com crash.

0:02:01.142,0:02:04.831
So here's my concern.

0:02:04.831,0:02:07.086
We could have a tipping point

0:02:07.086,0:02:09.156
in global food and agriculture

0:02:09.156,0:02:11.189
if surging demand

0:02:11.189,0:02:18.594
surpasses the agricultural system's[br]structural capacity to produce food.

0:02:18.594,0:02:23.072
This means at this point supply[br]can no longer keep up with demand

0:02:23.072,0:02:25.693
despite exploding prices,

0:02:25.693,0:02:30.497
unless we can commit[br]to some type of structural change.

0:02:30.497,0:02:32.525
This time around,

0:02:32.525,0:02:35.503
it won't be about stock markets and money.

0:02:35.503,0:02:36.769
It's about people.

0:02:36.769,0:02:38.324
People could starve

0:02:38.324,0:02:41.488
and governments may fall.

0:02:41.488,0:02:45.907
This question of at what point[br]does supply struggle

0:02:45.907,0:02:47.732
to keep up with surging demand

0:02:47.732,0:02:51.349
is one that started off as an interest[br]for me while I was trading

0:02:51.349,0:02:54.185
and became an absolute obsession.

0:02:54.185,0:02:57.159
It went from interest to obsession

0:02:57.159,0:03:00.818
when I realized through my research[br]how broken the system was,

0:03:00.818,0:03:06.235
and how very little data was being used[br]to make such critical decisions.

0:03:06.235,0:03:10.322
That's the point I decided to walk away[br]from a career on Wall Street

0:03:10.322,0:03:12.721
and start an entrepreneurial journey

0:03:12.721,0:03:15.640
to start Gro Intelligence.

0:03:15.640,0:03:18.800
At Gro, we focus on bringing this data

0:03:18.800,0:03:21.584
and doing the work to make it actionable,

0:03:21.584,0:03:24.809
to empower decision-makers at every level.

0:03:24.809,0:03:27.865
But doing this work,

0:03:27.865,0:03:29.119
we also realized that the world,

0:03:29.119,0:03:30.569
not just world leaders,

0:03:30.569,0:03:34.821
but businesses and citizens[br]like every single person in this room,

0:03:34.821,0:03:37.495
lacked an actionable guide

0:03:37.495,0:03:42.623
on how we can avoid a coming[br]global food security crisis.

0:03:42.623,0:03:45.036
And so we built a model,

0:03:45.036,0:03:47.712
leveraging the petabytes[br]of data we sit on,

0:03:47.712,0:03:50.832
and we solved for the tipping point.

0:03:50.832,0:03:54.393
Now, no one knows[br]we've been working on this problem,

0:03:54.393,0:03:56.132
and this is the first time

0:03:56.132,0:04:01.094
that I'm sharing what we discovered.

0:04:01.094,0:04:03.064
We discovered that the tipping point

0:04:03.064,0:04:06.622
is actually a decade from now.

0:04:06.622,0:04:09.413
We discovered that the world

0:04:09.413,0:04:13.709
will be short 214 trillion calories

0:04:13.709,0:04:17.736
by 2027.

0:04:17.736,0:04:22.714
The world is not in a position[br]to fill this gap.

0:04:22.714,0:04:25.180
Now, you'll notice

0:04:25.180,0:04:29.467
that the way I'm framing this[br]is different from how I started,

0:04:29.467,0:04:31.755
and that's intentional, because[br]until now, this problem

0:04:31.755,0:04:35.019
has been quantified using mass:

0:04:35.019,0:04:37.760
think kilograms, tons, hectograms,

0:04:37.760,0:04:40.618
whatever your unit of choice is in mass.

0:04:40.618,0:04:43.610
Why do we talk about food[br]in terms of weight?

0:04:43.610,0:04:45.081
Because it's easy.

0:04:45.081,0:04:48.589
We can look at a photograph[br]and determine tonnage on a ship

0:04:48.589,0:04:50.733
by using a simple pocket calculator.

0:04:50.733,0:04:54.165
We can weigh trucks,[br]airplanes and oxcarts.

0:04:54.165,0:04:59.005
But what we care about[br]in food is nutritional value.

0:04:59.005,0:05:02.521
Not all foods are created equal,

0:05:02.521,0:05:05.134
even if they weigh the same.

0:05:05.134,0:05:07.501
This I learned firsthand

0:05:07.501,0:05:11.093
when I moved from Ethiopia[br]to the US for university.

0:05:11.093,0:05:13.642
Upon my return back home,

0:05:13.642,0:05:16.753
my father, who was so excited to see me,

0:05:16.753,0:05:21.276
greeted me by asking why I was fat.

0:05:21.276,0:05:25.130
Now, turns out that eating

0:05:25.130,0:05:31.865
approximately the same amount of food[br]as I did in Ethiopia, but in America,

0:05:31.865,0:05:36.088
had actually lent[br]a certain fullness to my figure.

0:05:36.088,0:05:41.682
This is why we should care about calories,

0:05:41.682,0:05:42.917
not about mass.

0:05:42.917,0:05:45.772
It is calories which sustain us.

0:05:47.154,0:05:52.422
So 214 trillion calories[br]is a very large number,

0:05:52.422,0:05:55.859
and not even the most dedicated of us

0:05:55.859,0:05:59.234
think in the hundreds[br]of trillions of calories.

0:05:59.234,0:06:02.191
So let me break this down differently.

0:06:02.191,0:06:05.461
An alternative way to think about this

0:06:05.461,0:06:08.497
is to think about it in Big Macs.

0:06:08.497,0:06:11.285
214 trillion calories.

0:06:11.285,0:06:14.116
A single Big Mac has 563 calories.

0:06:14.116,0:06:20.523
That means the world will be short[br]379 billion Big Macs in 2027.

0:06:20.523,0:06:24.370
That is more Big Macs[br]than McDonald's has ever produced.

0:06:26.218,0:06:30.336
So how did we get[br]to these numbers in the first place?

0:06:30.336,0:06:32.204
They're not made up.

0:06:32.204,0:06:34.581
This map shows you

0:06:34.581,0:06:37.619
where the world was 40 years ago.

0:06:37.619,0:06:41.569
It shows you net calorie gaps[br]in every country in the world.

0:06:41.569,0:06:42.841
Now, simply put,

0:06:42.841,0:06:46.025
this is just calories[br]consumed in that country

0:06:46.025,0:06:49.408
minus calories produced[br]in that same country.

0:06:49.408,0:06:51.846
This is not a statement[br]on malnutrition or anything else.

0:06:51.846,0:06:55.929
It's simply saying how many calories[br]are consumed in a single year

0:06:55.929,0:06:57.924
minus how many are produced.

0:06:57.924,0:07:01.278
Blue countries are net calorie exporters,

0:07:01.278,0:07:02.706
or self-sufficient.

0:07:02.706,0:07:05.365
They have some in storage for a rainy day.

0:07:05.365,0:07:08.186
Red countries are net calorie importers.

0:07:08.186,0:07:10.009
The deeper, the brighter the red,

0:07:10.009,0:07:12.467
the more you're importing.

0:07:12.467,0:07:16.868
40 years ago, such few countries[br]were net exporters of calories,

0:07:16.868,0:07:19.595
I could count them with one hand.

0:07:19.595,0:07:21.491
Most of the African continent,

0:07:21.491,0:07:24.386
Europe, most of Asia,

0:07:24.386,0:07:26.685
South America excluding Argentina,

0:07:26.685,0:07:28.881
were all net importers of calories.

0:07:28.881,0:07:32.988
And what's surprising is that China[br]used to actually be food self-sufficient.

0:07:32.988,0:07:36.858
India was a big net importer of calories.

0:07:36.858,0:07:39.881
40 years later, this is today.

0:07:40.337,0:07:44.322
You can see the drastic transformation[br]that's occurred in the world.

0:07:44.322,0:07:47.847
Brazil has emerged[br]as an agricultural powerhouse.

0:07:47.847,0:07:51.100
Europe is dominant in global agriculture.

0:07:51.100,0:07:54.349
India has actually flipped[br]from red to blue.

0:07:54.349,0:07:56.405
It's become food self-sufficient.

0:07:56.405,0:07:58.704
And China went from that light blue

0:07:58.704,0:08:02.570
to the brightest red[br]that you see on this map.

0:08:02.570,0:08:06.243
How did we get here? What happened?

0:08:06.243,0:08:09.762
So this chart shows you India and Africa.

0:08:09.762,0:08:12.890
Blue line is India, red line is Africa.

0:08:12.890,0:08:16.917
How is it that two regions[br]that started off so similarly

0:08:16.917,0:08:19.017
in such similar trajectories

0:08:19.017,0:08:21.210
take such different paths?

0:08:21.210,0:08:24.308
India had a green revolution.

0:08:24.308,0:08:28.859
Not a single African country[br]had a green revolution.

0:08:28.859,0:08:29.805
The net outcome?

0:08:29.805,0:08:31.358
India is food self-sufficient

0:08:31.358,0:08:34.732
and in the past decade has actually[br]been exporting calories.

0:08:34.732,0:08:39.538
The African continent now imports[br]over 300 trillion calories a year.

0:08:39.538,0:08:42.351
Then we add China, the green line.

0:08:42.351,0:08:47.385
Remember the switch[br]from the blue to the bright red?

0:08:47.385,0:08:48.732
What happened, and when did it happen?

0:08:48.732,0:08:53.643
China seemed to be[br]on a very similar path to India

0:08:53.643,0:08:55.994
until the start of the 21st century,

0:08:55.994,0:08:58.568
where it suddenly flipped.

0:08:58.568,0:09:00.617
A young and growing population

0:09:00.617,0:09:03.605
combined with significant economic growth

0:09:03.605,0:09:06.269
made its mark with a big bang,

0:09:06.269,0:09:09.738
and no one in the markets saw it coming.

0:09:09.738,0:09:13.528
This flip was everything[br]to global agricultural markets.

0:09:13.528,0:09:16.107
Luckily now, South America

0:09:16.107,0:09:21.538
was starting to boom[br]at the same time as China's rise,

0:09:21.538,0:09:26.582
and so therefore, supply and demand[br]were still somewhat balanced.

0:09:26.582,0:09:28.902
So the question becomes,

0:09:28.902,0:09:31.509
where do we go from here?

0:09:31.509,0:09:33.327
Oddly enough,

0:09:33.327,0:09:35.632
it's not a new story,

0:09:35.632,0:09:39.499
except this time[br]it's not just a story of China.

0:09:39.499,0:09:42.115
It's a continuation of China,

0:09:42.115,0:09:44.047
an amplification of Africa,

0:09:44.047,0:09:46.897
and a paradigm shift in India.

0:09:46.897,0:09:51.775
By 2023, Africa's population[br]is forecasted to overtake that

0:09:51.775,0:09:54.684
of India's and China's.

0:09:54.684,0:09:57.083
By 2023, these three regions combined

0:09:57.083,0:10:01.231
will make up over half[br]the world's population.

0:10:01.231,0:10:05.698
This crossover point starts to present[br]really interesting challenges

0:10:05.698,0:10:07.521
for global food security,

0:10:07.521,0:10:12.147
and a few years later,[br]we're hit hard with that reality.

0:10:12.147,0:10:17.335
What does the world look like in 10 years?

0:10:17.335,0:10:21.216
So far, as I mentioned,[br]India has been food self-sufficient.

0:10:21.216,0:10:25.463
Most forecasters predict[br]that this will continue.

0:10:25.463,0:10:27.232
We disagree.

0:10:27.232,0:10:32.108
India will soon become[br]a net importer of calories.

0:10:32.108,0:10:35.329
This will be driven both by the fact[br]that demand is growing

0:10:35.329,0:10:38.506
from a population growth standpoint[br]plus economic growth.

0:10:38.506,0:10:40.324
It will be driven by both.

0:10:40.324,0:10:42.676
And even if you have[br]optimistic assumptions

0:10:42.676,0:10:44.496
around production growth,

0:10:44.496,0:10:47.318
it will make that slight flip.

0:10:47.318,0:10:51.916
That slight flip can have[br]huge implications.

0:10:51.916,0:10:56.728
Next, Africa will continue[br]to be a net importer of calories,

0:10:56.728,0:11:00.389
again driven by population growth[br]and economic growth.

0:11:00.389,0:11:04.320
This is again assuming optimistic[br]production growth assumptions.

0:11:04.320,0:11:05.611
Then China,

0:11:05.611,0:11:08.043
where population is flattening out,

0:11:08.043,0:11:10.412
calorie consumption will explode

0:11:10.412,0:11:13.337
because the types of calories consumed

0:11:13.337,0:11:17.941
are also starting to be[br]higher calorie content foods.

0:11:17.941,0:11:20.151
And so therefore,

0:11:20.151,0:11:21.588
these three regions combined

0:11:21.588,0:11:24.566
start to present a really interesting[br]challenge for the world.

0:11:24.566,0:11:29.101
Until now, countries with calorie deficits

0:11:29.101,0:11:31.698
have been able to meet these deficits

0:11:31.698,0:11:33.984
from importing from surplus regions.

0:11:33.984,0:11:37.044
By surplus regions, I'm talking about

0:11:37.044,0:11:39.992
North America, South America and Europe.

0:11:39.992,0:11:42.384
This line chart over here shows you

0:11:42.384,0:11:46.774
the growth and the projected growth[br]over the next decade of production

0:11:46.774,0:11:49.680
from North America,[br]South America and Europe.

0:11:49.680,0:11:50.858
What it doesn't show you

0:11:50.858,0:11:54.660
is that most of this growth is actually[br]going to come from South America,

0:11:54.660,0:11:56.315
and most of this growth

0:11:56.315,0:11:59.225
is going to come at the huge cost

0:11:59.225,0:12:02.425
of deforestation.

0:12:02.425,0:12:06.168
And so when you look at[br]the combined demand increase

0:12:06.168,0:12:10.478
coming from India, China[br]and the African continent,

0:12:10.478,0:12:14.386
and look at it versus the combined[br]increase in production coming from India,

0:12:14.386,0:12:19.556
China, the African continent,[br]North America, South America and Europe,

0:12:19.556,0:12:25.036
you are left with[br]a 214 trillion calorie deficit,

0:12:25.036,0:12:26.729
one we can't produce.

0:12:26.729,0:12:30.569
And this, by the way, is actually assuming[br]we take all the extra calories

0:12:30.569,0:12:33.196
produced in North America,[br]South America and Europe

0:12:33.196,0:12:39.516
and export them solely[br]to India, China and Africa.

0:12:39.516,0:12:43.792
What I just presented to you[br]is a vision of an impossible world.

0:12:43.792,0:12:45.999
We can do something to change that.

0:12:45.999,0:12:48.901
We can change consumption patterns,

0:12:48.901,0:12:51.264
we can reduce food waste,

0:12:51.264,0:12:54.781
or we can make a bold commitment

0:12:54.781,0:12:57.964
to increasing yields exponentially.

0:12:57.964,0:13:00.495
Now I'm not going to go into discussing

0:13:00.495,0:13:02.600
changing consumption patterns[br]or reducing food waste,

0:13:02.600,0:13:05.101
because those conversations have been[br]going on for some time now.

0:13:05.101,0:13:06.728
Nothing has happened.

0:13:06.728,0:13:08.228
Nothing has happened

0:13:08.228,0:13:10.209
because those arguments

0:13:10.209,0:13:13.451
ask the surplus regions[br]to change their behavior

0:13:13.451,0:13:17.016
on behalf of deficit regions.

0:13:17.016,0:13:19.720
Waiting for others[br]to change their behavior

0:13:19.720,0:13:22.195
on your behalf for your survival

0:13:22.195,0:13:23.787
is a terrible idea.

0:13:23.787,0:13:25.818
It's unproductive.

0:13:25.818,0:13:28.634
So I'd like to suggest an alternative

0:13:28.634,0:13:31.687
that comes from the red regions.

0:13:31.687,0:13:34.655
China, India, Africa.

0:13:34.655,0:13:37.866
China is constrained in terms[br]of how much more land it actually has

0:13:37.866,0:13:39.447
available for agriculture,

0:13:39.447,0:13:43.243
and it has massive water[br]resource availability issues.

0:13:43.243,0:13:48.065
So the answer really lies[br]in India and in Africa.

0:13:48.065,0:13:52.996
India has some upside in terms[br]of potential yield increases.

0:13:52.996,0:13:55.318
Now this is the gap[br]between its current yield

0:13:55.318,0:13:59.795
and the theoretical[br]maximum yield it can achieve.

0:13:59.795,0:14:03.258
It has some unfarmed[br]arable land remaining, but not much,

0:14:03.258,0:14:06.475
India is quite land constrained.

0:14:06.475,0:14:09.410
Now the African continent,[br]on the other hand,

0:14:09.410,0:14:12.421
has vast amounts of arable land remaining

0:14:12.421,0:14:16.229
and significant[br]upside potential in yields.

0:14:16.229,0:14:18.886
Somewhat simplified picture here,

0:14:18.886,0:14:23.556
but if you look at sub-Saharan[br]African yields in corn today,

0:14:23.556,0:14:28.957
they are where North American[br]yields were in 1940.

0:14:28.957,0:14:32.818
We don't have 70-plus years[br]to figure this out,

0:14:32.818,0:14:35.230
so it means we need to try something new

0:14:35.230,0:14:38.659
and we need to try something different.

0:14:38.659,0:14:42.127
The solution starts with reforms.

0:14:42.127,0:14:46.141
We need to reform and commercialize

0:14:46.141,0:14:48.742
the agricultural industries in Africa

0:14:48.742,0:14:50.557
and in India.

0:14:50.557,0:14:52.416
Now, by commercialization,

0:14:52.416,0:14:55.878
commercialization is not about[br]commercial farming alone.

0:14:55.878,0:14:58.873
Commercialization is about leveraging data

0:14:58.873,0:15:00.706
to craft better policies,

0:15:00.706,0:15:02.657
to improve infrastructure,

0:15:02.657,0:15:04.361
to lower the transportation costs,

0:15:04.361,0:15:08.719
and to completely reform[br]banking and insurance industries.

0:15:08.719,0:15:11.656
Commercialization is about[br]taking agriculture

0:15:11.656,0:15:15.846
from too risky an endeavor[br]to one where fortunes can be made.

0:15:15.846,0:15:19.124
Commercialization[br]is not about just farmers.

0:15:19.124,0:15:24.660
Commercialization is about[br]the entire agricultural system.

0:15:24.660,0:15:28.979
But commercialization[br]also means confronting the fact

0:15:28.979,0:15:32.537
that we can no longer place[br]the burden of growth

0:15:32.537,0:15:36.417
on small-scale farmers alone,

0:15:36.417,0:15:42.080
and accepting that commercial farms[br]and the introduction of commercial farms

0:15:42.080,0:15:44.841
could provide certain economies of scale

0:15:44.841,0:15:48.518
that even small-scale[br]farmers can leverage.

0:15:48.518,0:15:52.398
It is not about small-scale farming[br]or commercial agriculture,

0:15:52.398,0:15:53.920
or big agriculture.

0:15:53.920,0:15:59.321
We can create the first successful models[br]of the coexistence and success

0:15:59.321,0:16:03.181
of small-scale farming alongside[br]commercial agriculture.

0:16:03.181,0:16:06.621
This is because, for the first time ever,

0:16:06.621,0:16:09.880
the most critical tool[br]for success in the industry --

0:16:09.880,0:16:11.567
data and knowledge --

0:16:11.567,0:16:14.923
is becoming cheaper by the day.

0:16:14.923,0:16:18.244
And very soon, it won't matter[br]how much money you have

0:16:18.244,0:16:19.948
or how big you are

0:16:19.948,0:16:24.172
to make optimal decisions[br]and maximize probability of success

0:16:24.172,0:16:27.652
in reaching your intended goal.

0:16:27.652,0:16:31.934
Companies like Gro are working really,[br]really hard to make this a reality.

0:16:31.934,0:16:36.450
So if we can commit[br]to this new, bold initiative,

0:16:36.450,0:16:38.629
to this new, bold change,

0:16:38.629,0:16:42.360
not only can we solve[br]the 214 trillion gap

0:16:42.360,0:16:43.925
that I talked about,

0:16:43.925,0:16:47.180
but we can actually set the world[br]on a whole new path.

0:16:47.180,0:16:51.350
India can remain food self-sufficient,

0:16:51.350,0:16:53.080
and Africa can emerge

0:16:53.080,0:16:57.503
as the world's next dark blue region.

0:16:57.503,0:16:59.826
The new question is,

0:16:59.826,0:17:01.485
how do we produce

0:17:01.485,0:17:03.930
214 trillion calories

0:17:03.930,0:17:09.081
to feed 8.3 billion people by 2027?

0:17:09.081,0:17:11.217
We have the solution.

0:17:11.217,0:17:13.715
We just need to act on it.

0:17:13.715,0:17:15.588
Thank you.

0:17:15.588,0:17:20.597
(Applause)