WEBVTT 00:00:00.501 --> 00:00:04.428 好的,让我们来看一下实际中的风险管理吧。 00:00:04.457 --> 00:00:08.474 而我将从一些基本概念开始阐述 00:00:08.485 --> 00:00:14.015 然后再逐渐聚焦在两个在风险分析中最为困难的领域 00:00:14.242 --> 00:00:19.164 我估计,如果问你如何去定义“风险”这个词 00:00:19.174 --> 00:00:22.954 你将会有很多不同的想法去定义它 00:00:22.967 --> 00:00:26.476 我们可能并没有一个准确的定义让我们能够解释其 00:00:26.476 --> 00:00:30.253 line:1 但是当我们听到“风险”这个词的时候,我们都会在头脑中得到一些画面 00:00:30.274 --> 00:00:33.972 这就是我们如何思考的,并且可能你也会像这样 00:00:34.234 --> 00:00:38.534 或许你感到就好像这位小兄弟一样,面对一些艰难的挑战 00:00:38.534 --> 00:00:41.791 然后你便知道该把.... 00:00:42.066 --> 00:00:43.766 又或许你感到像这个家伙一样 00:00:44.024 --> 00:00:46.489 这是真实的职业在北朝鲜 00:00:47.768 --> 00:00:51.367 并且他的工作就是举起靶子让其他人来射击 00:00:51.500 --> 00:00:53.979 有时候,项目管理同样有“靶子”在这儿 00:00:54.292 --> 00:00:56.911 我们感觉到每个人都在向我们的工作射击 00:00:57.757 --> 00:01:01.987 又或许你恰好知道有一些棘手的事情等待着你去做 00:01:02.470 --> 00:01:05.700 并且当你考虑“风险”这个词时,那可能就是你所想的 00:01:06.361 --> 00:01:09.574 但这只有一部分正确了,并不是完全正确 00:01:10.193 --> 00:01:13.625 风险并不是指不确定 00:01:14.220 --> 00:01:16.963 风险和不确定有所关联,但并不相同 00:01:17.670 --> 00:01:23.826 因此,所有风险都是不确定的,但是并不是说不确定的就都是风险 00:01:24.653 --> 00:01:27.589 如果你有一个风险登记表或一个风险清单 00:01:27.942 --> 00:01:31.435 其上不会有几百万个项目,或者不应该有 00:01:31.962 --> 00:01:34.512 甚至其可能连几千都不到 00:01:34.512 --> 00:01:35.788 更可能是更小的数字 00:01:36.714 --> 00:01:40.007 尽管世界上有几百万不确定的事情 00:01:40.400 --> 00:01:44.313 那么,我们该怎样定义哪一些不确定的事情可以被称作”风险“呢? 00:01:44.677 --> 00:01:47.280 将这些风险写下来并登记在我们的风险登记表上 00:01:47.548 --> 00:01:50.057 然后,再决定为这些”风险“做些什么 00:01:50.483 --> 00:01:56.362 00:01:56.942 --> 00:01:58.133 你怎么知道的? 00:01:58.798 --> 00:02:02.948 我认为区分风险和不确定非常简单 00:02:03.199 --> 00:02:05.274 line:1 并且只需要用三个词 00:02:05.425 --> 00:02:10.019 line:1 那就是,”风险是强关联的不确定性“ 00:02:11.503 --> 00:02:14.783 因为世界上大多数不确定并不重要 00:02:15.564 --> 00:02:19.014 我们并不关心如果伦敦明天下午是否下雨 00:02:19.400 --> 00:02:23.780 它可能下,也可能不下。那没有关联,那并不重要 00:02:24.498 --> 00:02:26.948 我们并不关心2020年如果汇率在俄罗斯卢布和中国人民币之间 00:02:26.948 --> 00:02:30.703 的金融汇率会如何 00:02:30.703 --> 00:02:32.387 因为那对我们并不重要 00:02:32.888 --> 00:02:35.118 但是有一些事情在我们的工作中, 00:02:35.427 --> 00:02:37.117 在我们的家庭中, 00:02:37.271 --> 00:02:38.871 在我们的国家中, 00:02:38.979 --> 00:02:41.446 这些不确定的事情则与我们有所关联 00:02:42.195 --> 00:02:45.338 如果某个事件是一个强关联的不确定,那它就是风险 00:02:46.188 --> 00:02:49.991 因而,这引出另一个问题,怎么确定是否强关联呢? 00:02:50.751 --> 00:02:53.396 在你的工作中,哪些事情是强关联的呢? 00:02:54.077 --> 00:02:57.875 00:02:58.532 --> 00:03:02.216 00:03:02.991 --> 00:03:05.631 00:03:06.005 --> 00:03:08.355 00:03:08.361 --> 00:03:11.405 00:03:11.445 --> 00:03:13.796 00:03:13.796 --> 00:03:17.559 00:03:18.451 --> 00:03:21.201 00:03:21.387 --> 00:03:23.916 00:03:24.144 --> 00:03:28.134 00:03:28.152 --> 00:03:32.212 00:03:32.212 --> 00:03:35.372 00:03:35.372 --> 00:03:38.587 00:03:38.603 --> 00:03:40.553 00:03:40.867 --> 00:03:44.317 00:03:44.703 --> 00:03:48.803 00:03:49.183 --> 00:03:52.113 00:03:52.113 --> 00:03:55.020 00:03:55.291 --> 00:03:59.631 00:03:59.721 --> 00:04:02.241 00:04:03.076 --> 00:04:06.766 00:04:06.766 --> 00:04:08.366 00:04:08.439 --> 00:04:11.739 00:04:13.304 --> 00:04:15.810 00:04:16.160 --> 00:04:18.322 00:04:18.338 --> 00:04:19.768 00:04:19.985 --> 00:04:22.095 00:04:22.132 --> 00:04:24.502 00:04:24.564 --> 00:04:27.044 00:04:27.084 --> 00:04:30.536 00:04:30.618 --> 00:04:33.317 00:04:34.767 --> 00:04:37.148 00:04:37.409 --> 00:04:39.658 00:04:39.658 --> 00:04:42.093 00:04:43.249 --> 00:04:47.419 00:04:47.449 --> 00:04:49.502 00:04:49.502 --> 00:04:51.233 00:04:51.233 --> 00:04:52.767 00:04:52.767 --> 00:04:54.553 00:04:54.702 --> 00:04:57.732 00:04:59.632 --> 00:05:04.647 00:05:05.874 --> 00:05:09.315 00:05:09.845 --> 00:05:12.193 00:05:12.457 --> 00:05:15.359 00:05:15.938 --> 00:05:18.817 00:05:18.903 --> 00:05:21.353 00:05:22.177 --> 00:05:24.517 00:05:24.517 --> 00:05:27.032 00:05:27.152 --> 00:05:32.051 00:05:32.051 --> 00:05:32.821 00:05:33.690 --> 00:05:36.560 00:05:36.560 --> 00:05:37.875 00:05:37.875 --> 00:05:39.218 00:05:39.218 --> 00:05:41.566 00:05:41.566 --> 00:05:42.986 00:05:43.202 --> 00:05:45.732 00:05:46.230 --> 00:05:49.880 00:05:49.957 --> 00:05:51.792 00:05:51.857 --> 00:05:52.867 00:05:54.240 --> 00:05:57.870 00:05:59.637 --> 00:06:01.327 00:06:01.327 --> 00:06:02.275 00:06:02.678 --> 00:06:05.558 00:06:05.558 --> 00:06:07.887 00:06:08.733 --> 00:06:10.429 00:06:10.967 --> 00:06:14.121 00:06:14.961 --> 00:06:17.471 00:06:17.471 --> 00:06:20.133 00:06:20.419 --> 00:06:22.639 00:06:23.129 --> 00:06:24.616 00:06:24.968 --> 00:06:28.958 00:06:29.232 --> 00:06:32.159 00:06:32.788 --> 00:06:36.128 00:06:36.128 --> 00:06:40.546 00:06:41.428 --> 00:06:44.518 00:06:44.889 --> 00:06:47.789 00:06:49.116 --> 00:06:52.116 00:06:52.116 --> 00:06:54.302 00:06:55.160 --> 00:06:56.640 00:06:56.806 --> 00:06:58.445 00:06:58.644 --> 00:07:01.868 00:07:02.170 --> 00:07:04.290 00:07:04.491 --> 00:07:08.689 00:07:08.872 --> 00:07:11.962 00:07:11.962 --> 00:07:16.170 00:07:16.170 --> 00:07:17.954 00:07:18.278 --> 00:07:19.338 00:07:19.683 --> 00:07:23.183 00:07:23.950 --> 00:07:28.353 00:07:28.353 --> 00:07:29.369 00:07:30.015 --> 00:07:32.565 00:07:32.724 --> 00:07:33.784 00:07:33.784 --> 00:07:36.076 00:07:36.353 --> 00:07:39.231 00:07:39.468 --> 00:07:41.896 00:07:42.525 --> 00:07:45.175 00:07:45.488 --> 00:07:48.125 00:07:48.678 --> 00:07:51.568 00:07:51.766 --> 00:07:56.364 00:07:56.867 --> 00:07:59.078 00:07:59.305 --> 00:08:03.791 00:08:04.007 --> 00:08:05.685 00:08:05.993 --> 00:08:08.093 00:08:08.093 --> 00:08:12.379 00:08:13.222 --> 00:08:18.534 00:08:18.721 --> 00:08:22.277 00:08:23.233 --> 00:08:26.204 00:08:26.432 --> 00:08:29.301